I lied again. One last 2012 review post, and I swear that's it for me. I did my first 10 Fearless Predictions post before the beginning of last season, and ended up doing about as horribly as I did in my 2012 divisional predictions. I ended up with 2.5 out of 10 right, which put me at a better hit rate than Russell Martin had this season but still isn't getting me any significant multi-year contract offers. I was looking to take a step in the right direction in 2012, learn from my mistakes, be a little more patient, take some predictions to the opposite field every now and then just to keep myself honest. I felt good about my 10 fearless for 2012, I really did. I thought I'd be looking at at least .400 this year. How'd that turn out?
But is Robinson Cano worth top-of-the-market dollars? Abso-fucking-lutely. Check out what this guy has been doing:
6 straight seasons of 159+ games played
3 straight All Star Game appearances
2 Gold Gloves in the last 3 seasons
3 Top 10 batting average finishes in the last 4 seasons
4 straight Top 4 total bases finishes
3rd in total fWAR in the last 3 seasons
3 straight Silver Slugger Awards
3 straight Top 6 MVP finishes
There aren't many out there doing shit like this, and that's a fact. Robinson Cano is one of the 4-6 best position players in all of baseball. He's having a historically impressive run of production and success for his position, he could end up one of the best of all time at his position when he's done, and he's still in his prime. Robbie Cano is going to get paid in a big way after the 2013 season because he SHOULD get paid in a big way. If the Yankees signed him to a 5-year/$135 million deal, I'd throw a party because I'd feel very confident that at least 3 of those years are going to be more of this elite-level production. It's those 5 years after the next 5 that scare me, just like they scare everybody in the front office.
It's not that Robbie Cano isn't a fucking boss, because he is. It's that we're already watching what happens when players start to un-boss in their mid-30s with too many years left on their deals and don't want to watch it again.
I have a confession. I lied to you all last week when I said the 2012 Season Predictions Review post was the end of the 2012 AB4AR Season Review series. I forgot about the awards. MLB is giving out all their big season awards this week, with the Yankees coming up dry in all the ones already announced and looking like they only have a top 5 candidate at best in Robinson Cano for the AL MVP award today. So being the kind, caring, selfless, generous person I am, I'm going to use this time to hand out my version of the end-of-season awards for the 2012 Yankee season.
Know that this was a difficult decision and a tireless process to determine the winners. All those who do win an award will be getting one of the free fictional AB4AR t-shirts that are still in the developmental stage and everyone is invited to a dinner at a location to be determined to honor all the winners. Without further ado, the 2012 AB4AR award winners...
(Why not bring Bernie back while you're at it? Courtesy of Mike McCann/WFAN)
I know we're still weeks away from the offseason really heating up and it's way too early to state this as a definitive conclusion, but I can't help but feel like the Yankees are just going to bring back as many of last season's older players as possible on 1-year deals to control costs. Rather than try and get creative or work the phones and the trade market to get younger, better, and payroll-friendly, they're going to take the easy way out, just re-up with the same old crew, and hope for the best.
After being connected to Torii Hunter right off the bat when free agency started, the Yankees announced that they weren't interested in signing him to anything more than a 1-year almost as soon as the reports of them talking to his agent came out. Now Hunter did carry some risk going into next season, and 2 years and $26 million would have been a deal that I would have said no to if I were the Yankees as well, but consider the backup options they've been pursuing and tell me that doesn't concern you.
Barring a a big-time unexpected swerve, the Yankees seem pretty well set in their plans to not add significant payroll this offseason as they try to address their team needs. They've engaged pretty much every older free agent from last year's team in some capacity while letting the younger, more expensive ones walk. If there is going to be any real effort towards improving the quality of the on-field product next year and not just controlling the dollars, that effort may have to come through the trade market, a roster-building medium with which Cash has great familiarity.
The Montero-Pineda deal aside, Cash has had a pretty successful recent track record adding productive pieces in their prime to the aging core of his lineup, most notably with the now departed Nick Swisher and the likely soon-to-be departed Curtis Granderson. Both of those moves followed a similar formula- seeking out and adding sub-30-year-old players with skill sets that fit the Yankee mold who were coming off seasons of significant decline in production. It's the classic buy-low method and there's no argument to be made for the Swish or Granderson deals not being good ones in terms of the production they brought to the team.
There are some names out there that could fit that similar mold of what Cash has looked for when making trades to bolster the lineup, some of which everybody knows and some that haven't been considered nearly as much. There's been no real indication that the Yankees will make a move for any of these players, but if Cash is playing opossum again, here are 4 guys who would make a lot of sense to go after.
Points for effort and creativity on the part of the Toronto Blue Jays, who swooped in and got themselves a pretty nice haul yesterday in their massive 12-player salary dump trade with the Florida Miami Marlins. With the Yankees still being on top looking down, the Orioles coming off a successful season and getting involved in the running for Josh Hamilton, the Rays holding a lot of valuable trade chips of their own, and the Fraud Sawx signing... David Ross to be their... backup catcher... whatever, Toronto had to do something drastic to keep up with the Joneses and this was it.
I'm not going to get into the nitty-gritty analysis here, but suffice it to say that the Jays improved the top of their lineup, improved their starting rotation, and improved their bench depth with this trade. Add a healthy Jose Bautista back into the mix and this could be a much more effective offseason approach than the "hope our young starters come around" tactic they've used the past few seasons, and should make the AL East even more competitive than it already is.
To that point, how will this big swing by Toronto affect the Yankees' offseason plans, if at all? On the one hand, this aggressive bid to compete for the division title could and normally would be the type of thing to make the Yankee front office scrap its payroll slashing plans and make some big moves of their own to beef up their roster. On the other, this type of blatant fire sale by Jeffrey Loria could be exactly what reinforces the Steinbrenners' belief that getting under the luxury tax threshold is the right thing to do so they aren't cutting more checks to help line Loria's pockets. Stay tuned, sports fans...
Full disclosure, I had no clue Robbie wasn't a US citizen. But good for him and welcome to the club, bro. I know this isn't about me, but I'm really glad that Robinson and I finally have something in common. Up until today, it's been a steady string of polar opposites. I'm a lazy, uncool, untalented, out-of-shape cubicle monkey making 5 figures doing something I'm really not even that good at; he's awesome, the best second baseman on the planet, in peak physical condition, oozes swag at every turn on and off the field, and stands to be paid somewhere safely inside the realm of 9 figures in his next contract once mega-shark agent Scott Boras squeezes every last penny out of some team (likely the Yankees) after the 2013 season.
So yeah, I'm glad Cano and I have some common ground now, a conversation starter. I'm a citizen, he's a citizen. So hit me up sometime, Robbie. Maybe we could hang out. And congrats again on making it official. Now somebody cue the fucking music!
P.S.- Coulda done without the David Ortiz beard, Robbie. I know it's the offseason and you can let the scruff go, but clean it up.
(Anybody wish these 2 were around right now? Courtesy of US Presswire & Getty Images)
Interestingly enough, or frustratingly enough depending on how against the austerity plan you are, the Yankees really kicked this plan into high gear last offseason when they failed to get involved in the international free agent market. It was one of the best classes in recent memory, highlighted by Yu Darvish and Yoenis Cespedes, 2 players who, ironically enough, play the positions the Yanks most need to fill this offseason. At the time, the Yankees' reasons for passing on both players were good ones. The history of Japanese pitchers making the transition to MLB was short on success stories, and the Yankees had been on the losing end of that gamble before, and there were questions about Cespedes' ability to come right in and play at the Major League level.
Not wanting to commit high dollars to 2 risky options that might not have returned comparable rewards, Cash decided to play it safe with his bids on each player and the Yankees lost out on both. Darvish ended up in Texas and Cespedes in Oakland, and both of them finished in the top 3 of the AL Rookie of the Year vote yesterday, an award that they could have battled it out for had Mike Trout not come and blown everyone's doors off. Now that their first years as Major Leaguers are over, let's take a look back and play a little "what if?" game with each guy.
The Yankees are taking a penny-pinching approach to their offseason, the Fraud Sawx are busy bringing back the soul of their organization and seeing what other coaches are available in trades. What's going on with the Mets? Sounds like they're about ready to start opening lemonade stands and turning tricks in the Citi Field parking lots to pay their players, according to Matthew Pouliot of Hardball Talkand WSJ writer Michael Salfino:
Normally this is the part in the post where I say something derogatory about the Mets and the Wilpons and then make a pitch for the Yankees to make a call about David Wright, but I know that's not worth my time from a comedic or baseball standpoint since this is almost too easy a target and Hank and Hal aren't in the business of making the team better this offseason if it hurts their chances of filling their own pockets in 2014. So instead I'll just say, "fucking Mets."
But seriously, Cash. You should put a call in to check on Wright's availability.
Payroll restrictions or not, the Yankees are going to have to get involved in the free agent market this offseason to address their areas of need and finish out their roster to take another run at title 28 next season. They've already lost some major parts of the 2012 roster and they're going to have to get creative to fill those holes and build a roster capable of contending for a championship.
Yesterday I presentedmy list of position players I felt made the most sense for the Yankees to go after this offeason, some of whom would fit the team's cost cutting goals and some who wouldn't but were good fits in terms of addressing team needs. Today we'll take a look at the group of players in the bigger area of need, pitching. The Yankee rotation has 2 open spots right now, 3 if you think they aren't going to guarantee Ivan Nova a spot heading into next season, and they could use some depth in the bullpen to cover for the loss of Rafael Soriano and the uncertainty surrounding Mariano Rivera's return from injury. They need to spend money to adequately address these openings, but as with the position players their approach will be dictated by their future payroll plans and their desire to keep costs and years committed to a minimum.
(Nothing wrong with wanting to keep the big guy as healthy as possible. Courtesy of Getty Images)
Pitching limits are a tricky thing. People are either in support of them as a way to lessen the stress on a pitcher's arm and reduce risk of injury or vehemently against them because they don't allow a pitcher to build up the arm strength needed to make it through a full season without getting hurt, with very little gray area in between. Typically these debates are had in reference to young pitchers making the transition to the Majors, but the Yankees stoked the debate fire last week when they brought up the idea of reducing the workload for their ace, CC Sabathia. Sabathia is coming off a season dotted with DL stints that saw him pitch fewer regular season innings (200.0) and make fewer regular season starts (28) than he has since 2006, and is fresh off surgery to clean bone spurs out of his pitching elbow. Not surprisingly, Sabathiastated last week that he was against the idea of limiting his workload moving forward, but there may be some merit to the idea.
Maybe the folks at Baseball America knew what they were talking about after all putting Slade Heathcott 2nd intheir top 10 organizational prospect rankings for the Yankees this week. Despite his inability to be smart, eloquent, or a good speller when discussing the election on his Twitter account, Heathcott has been a standout since day 1 in the Arizona Fall League this year. And David Adams, who continues to impress and create buzz for himself heading into ST 2013, has been no slouch either:
Heathcott- .333/.457/.526, 5 2B, 3 3B, 10 R, 12 RBI, 12 BB/14 K in 69 PA
Adams- .261/.363/.507, 10 XBH (3 HR), 9 R, 14 RBI, 11 BB/12 K in 80 PA
And if you're a visual learner, he's a piece from YES.com on the Yankees' AZFL participants. Mmmmmmm, prospects...
P.S.- Heathcott has no neck, Austin Romine looks like he's 35 years old, Mark Montgomery looks and sounds like a meathead who doesn't give a shit about anything other than striking guys out, and Dellin Betances fucking blows.
With everyone having now made their decisions on the qualifying offers that were made (all were declined) and the GM meetings this week getting things moving towards the meat of the 2012 offseason schedule, the Yankees know where they stand and know where they need to focus their efforts to build their team for 2013. As presently constructed, the Yankee roster is short 2 starting pitchers, 1 right fielder, 1 hitter capable of handling a significant chunk of the time at DH, at least 1 relief pitcher to build depth in front of a returning Mariano Rivera, and a couple of pieces to fill out the bench.
The precedent has already been set from the front office for how they plan to fill these needs, and it's going to be on the cheap, cheaper than it was last season when the Yankees jumped in late to swipe a few veterans on 1-year deals. That strategy will eliminate some of the players mentioned below, but that still isn't stopping me from putting together my list of the top free agents the Yankees should be going after this offseason. We'll tackle the first half of that list, the position players, after the jump.
(Can't say I blame the guy for rejecting. Courtesy of Getty Images)
As expected, Rafael Soriano and Nick Swisher were among the group of all 9 players who rejected the qualifying offers made by their respective teams. Slightly less expected, but only slightly, was Hiroki Kuroda also being a part of that group to reject his qualifying offer, making it open season for all teams interested in his services to make him an offer. There were reasons to believethat Kuroda could possibly accept the qualifying offer to come back to New York next season - he was reported to have enjoyed his time in New York and to be looking for another 1-year deal- but now the Yankees will have to re-focus their efforts to get a deal done. Kuroda is the most important piece for the Yankees to bring back to solidify next year's starting rotation. What needs to be done to make sure that happens?
The 2012 season has officially been put to bed, at least as far as I'm concerned. Games were won and lost, lessons were learned, the good things were praised, and the bad things were bummed out on. In case you missed any of the Season Review series this week, and shame shame if you did, here's your chance to catch up.
I got nothing again as a lead-in for a second straight week. Shitty Friday at the office, which is not how Fridays are supposed to go. Oh well, at least it's payday. Let's get right to it. Onto the links!
- Cliff Corcoran wrote a very introspective piece for Pinstriped Bible about his history as a Yankee fan and blogger and his motivations for stepping away from both this year. Definite must-read if you're a longtime diehard fan.
- On Tuesday, Chad Jennings of LoHud laid out the landscape of the 40-man roster as we get ready for the offseason to really kick into gear. Yanks appear to be in a good position, but we'll see what moves they make to protect Rule 5 guys.
- Robert Casey of Bleeding Yankee Blue explained his proposed trade package for Justin Upton, and truth be told, I think it's a good starting point even if the Yankees are really "not in" on Upton.
- SJK of NoMaas wondered if there's more to these $189 million payroll plans than just getting under the luxury tax threshold. It's a question worth asking with how Hank and Hal have run things.
On Friday, Andrew Corselli of Yanks Go Yard handed out his final grade to Curtis Granderson for C-Grand's 2012 season. I don't know if it was on a curve or not, but I think it was a fair grade.
For this week's Friday Jam I'm going with an all-time drunken karaoke favorite of mine, "Say It Ain't So" by Weezer. If you've never belted this song out with at least one friend sometime around bar close, you just haven't lived. If I could only listen to 10 songs for the rest of my life, this would absolutely get a spot in that group of 10 and it wouldn't even require that much debate to include it. This is just a great tune.
I don't pretend to be the smartest cat on the block, even if I do take the opportunity to toot my own horn once in a while when I get something right. But I actually felt pretty good about my 2012 season predictions back in April when I made them. I made an effort to read up on other teams and where the rest of MLB stood heading into the season so that I wasn't just a loudmouth Yankee fan/blogger talking out of the wrong hole about the rest of the league. Well, sometimes even the best laid plans go completely to shit, as you'll see after the jump. Maybe it'd be better if I just stick to being a loudmouth Yankee fan/blogger...
There's been nothing major to come out of the first 2 days of the GM meetings this week, and I highly doubt anything major will come out of today's final day, which is not surprising at all. These meetings are just the precursor to the bigger meetings in December. What is a bit surprising is how open the Yankees have been in regards to what they will and won't do this offseason as part of their planned 2014 payroll cut. Joel Sherman reported yesterday that they would not be willing to offer Torii Hunter more than a 1-year deal, and that despite Justin Upton being back on the trade block and reportedly removing New York from his no-trade list, "the Yankees are not on him." I'm all for trying to avoid the luxury tax penalty in 2014, but I can't help but think that the Yankees are tipping their hand a little early here and setting themselves up for future problems as they go about filling out their roster for the next couple seasons.
(Who knew this guy was still a threat? Courtesy of the AP)
With the lineup and bullpen remaining mostly unchanged this season, and the main focus being building up the depth of the rotation, the Yankee bench was once again a last-minute construction job heading into Spring Training. The team was relatively successful in their 2011 approach of piecing the bench together with some younger internal pieces and cheap veteran platoon players, and they stuck with that approach for 2012. The biggest loss was Jorge Posada, who retired after his down 2011 campaign, and his power was replaced by a 2-part lefty/righty DH platoon that was also expected to serve as the 2-man 4th outfield spot when older regulars needed a day off. Combine that with a flexible infield pair and a defensive-minded backup catcher, and things should have been covered.
But as was the case with every other part of the roster, the bench plans were greatly affected by the injuries that befell key members of this year's team. Once the bench players were forced into regular duty, the depth and flexibility of the group took a major hit. These were not supposed to be guys that played every day, especially not in the field, and their overall effectiveness did suffer a bit as a result. But the bench was still plenty effective, with 3 players who hit 14 or more HR, 3 who stole more than 5 bases, and multiple guys who stepped in and played multiple positions. Take away a few big plays here and there from members of this season's bench, and the Yankees probably don't win the division.
I'm sure there were some people who thought, "why the hell would they do that?" when they read or heard about the Yankees preparing to offer Mariano Rivera a new deal for 2013 that included a pay cut from the $15 million he made this season. Bob Klapisch went so far as to say that Mo "may be insulted" by the first offer in the headline of his story on the situation. This type of language immediately brings to mind the very tense and public back-and-forth between the Yankees and Derek Jeter a few years ago when they were negotiating his new deal, but I don't believe this negotiation with Mo will go down that same path. At the end of the day, it's just smart business and a move that makes sense for both sides.
(It's OK, D-Rob. You're still MY closer of the future. Courtesy of Getty Images)
Like the lineup, the 2012 Yankee bullpen was made up of mostly familiar faces. Unlike the lineup, those familiar faces didn't experience nearly the regression in performance that their bat-wielding teammates did. That's not to say that the bullpen wasn't without its own problems this season. They certainly weren't spared the wrath of the injury bug, losing the 2 most important members of the group for different stretches of time early in the season. But that was alleviated by the return of others from previous injuries later in the season, a big-time comeback season from 2011's biggest disappointment, and another instance of Cash finding diamonds in the rough that contributed their fair share of above-average middle innings work.
The bullpen group wasn't as otherworldly dominant as they could have been, which is to be expected when the best relief pitcher on the planet misses almost the entire season. But as anticipated they maintained their status as one of the best groups in baseball. Their 3.62 FIP in 444.0 innings of work ranked 6th in MLB, 3rd in the American League, as did their 8.92 K/9. Despite Joe still remaining too married to the idea of set roles for certain guys, the Yankee bullpen managed to step up and overcome the biggest obstacle they've faced in some time to once again be the backbone of this team.
Baseball's annual gathering of the GMs kicks off today in Cali, another sign that we've put the 2012 season squarely in the rearview and are focusing almost all energy towards 2013. Don't expect anything big to come from these meetings; they're more of the warm-up act for the main event of the Winter Meetings next month. That being said, the groundwork for potential deals and bigger Winter Meeting discussions can be laid here, and Ken Davidoff and George King of The Post reported yesterday that Cash will likely sit down with Torii Hunter's agent while attending the meetings this week. Hunter is a prime candidate to replace Nick Swisher in right field, and with the Yankees staying quiet early in the offseason this could be a clue as to where their priorities lie in filling that hole.
If anything big does happen I'll definitely be here to cover it, but I wouldn't expect any breaking transaction news to come out the next 3 days. Better of withholding your excitement until December.
P.S.- Part of me wonders if these meetings are just a way for all the GMs to get together, kick back, and laugh about all the crap that happened this season and what their stupid owners did and didn't want them to do. I picture the doors closing to whatever conference room in whatever hotel they're in and guys breaking out the cigars and beers for a 3-day party. By the time Friday rolls around there's guys grouping up to play high-stakes poker games and spraying hookers down with one of those big $10,000 bottles of Spades. That would be awesome.
(Don't get it twisted. This guy is still the man. Courtesy of the AP)
Nobody could say that the Yankees didn't do everything possible to fortify and overstock their rotation for the 2012 season. Signings, trades, promotions, they covered it from every conceivable angle short of investing money into cloning CC. With their offense consistently taking a dump in the postseason, and the rotation usually not being good enough in the postseason to carry the load, Cash made damn sure that lack of starting pitching was not going to be a reason why the Yanks didn't take the title home in 2012. He started with a pre-emptive re-negotiation of CC's deal and didn't stop until Andy Pettitte came out of left field to sign his name on the dotted line as extra insurance.
The variety of moves to build the 2012 rotation was reflected in the diversity the Yankees built in their depth. They had CC, Hughes, and Nova left over from 2011, they traded for Michael Pineda, signed Hiroki Kuroda, and locked up Freddy Garcia and Pettitte as that previously-mentioned veteran insurance. As we all found out with every disappointing DL stint, it was insurance and veteran experience that was much needed for this group, and despite all the setbacks and unfortunate circumstances, the Yankee rotation collectively remained one of the best in baseball and a source of strength for the 2012 club.
(Bring this guy back. Courtesy of Jim McIsaac/Newsday)
It could be a lot different. Russell Martin could be kicking back right now recuperating from the long season and waiting to enter the second year of a 3-year contract. But he chose to decline the Yankees' offer before this season and took the plunge on another 1-year deal. That plan backfired a little bit on him, as Martin's .211/.311/.403 batting this season didn't do a lot to help his negotiating leverage this offseason. But Martin is a known commodity in the Yankee organization, and a valued on at that, and down season or not it sounds like things are already progressing towards a new deal to stay in the Bronx.
Anthony McCarron of The Daily News reported on Sunday that the team and Martin's agent have already talked and that, "it was all very positive." Nobody is close to putting pen to paper yet, but the fact that talks are starting this quickly shows there is desire on both sides to have Russ remain in a Yankee uniform next year. Checking the rest of the backstop landscape this offseason, that's the best move the Yankees can make to address their catching situation.
"In the 10 years that I have (been) in Boston, I have been the soul of the organization and there has never been a second where David Ortiz being able to go on the field and do what he does has decided to stay seated."
Big Sloppi just doing the damn thing like always. Nothing says "soul of the organization" like openly stating that you're the soul of the organization to the press in response to accusations made weeks ago by your FORMER manager and then referring to yourself in the third person. David Ortiz: teammate, leader, inspiration. I pretty much gave up on trying to make fun of the Fraud Sawx months ago, but I can't stay away when Sloppi is shooting his mouth off. It's like that crazy ex-girlfriend you can't stop thinking about. You complete me, David. You complete me.
P.S.- Offseason or not, my "throw to injure" order still stands. Somebody please hit this asshole.
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