Contemplating Adam Warren In The Rotation

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

A popular topic of conversation right now in Yankeeland is Vidal Nuno's spot in the rotation and whether or not he deserves to keep it.  He did little to help his cause last Saturday when he gave up 3 home runs in a loss to Baltimore, his 11th, 12th, and 13th in 12 starts, and I think Joe would like to remove him if he could.  Unfortunately for him, the organizational starting depth being stretched thin by injuries has left the Yankees without a suitable replacement sitting front and center.

One name that's been talked about a lot as a possibility is Adam Warren.  The former starting pitching prospect has settled nicely into a middle relief and occasional setup role this season after being given a token spot in the Spring Training 5th starter competition.  Warren made the transition from starter to reliever almost full-time last year when he earned himself a bullpen spot out of spring camp, and while he hasn't worked as a starter since 2012 it's reasonable to think he could be at least a slight improvement over Nuno.  The question of swapping Nuno for Warren has been brought up to Joe plenty in the last week and he's admitted that it's something he's considering.  The real question is whether it's the right move to make.

The Potential Long-Term Effects Of Nova's Injury

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

Ivan Nova's Saturday was already a bad one before the injury was announced.  He was up in the strike zone again, getting knocked around the park, and not giving his team much of a chance to win.  His early exit and subsequent UCL tear diagnosis was a stomach punch to him, a sobering blow to what had been a mostly positive start to the Yankee season, and a possible explanation for his early struggles on the mound.

With Nova now out of the picture for the near future and most likely the remainder of the season, the Yankees will have to find a way to cover for that loss.  They appear to have found a suitable replacement for the short-term in Vidal Nuno, but the baseball season is a long one and it's barely over 10% old.  More injuries are all but certain and it's the long-term ramifications of Nova's injury that are now the concern.  The ripple effect of losing Nova could extend from this past weekend into the final month of the season in a variety of ways, all of which the Yankees will have to consider and be prepared to address moving forward.

Monday Morning Food For Thought: Vidal Nuno, 5th Starter

(Courtesy of the AP)

5/13/13- 5 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 3 K
5/25/13- 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
5/30/13- 6 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
4/20/14- 5 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 6 K

It isn't a large or meaningful sample size by any stretch of the imagination, but Vidal Nuno does have a very good history as a Major League starter.  He allowed just 4 runs in 3 spot starts last May and stepped up to toss 5 shutout innings against a red hot Tampa Bay lineup yesterday.  With Ivan Nova on the DL and likely looking at season-ending TJS, the Yankees are going to need a full-time replacement in the starting rotation and right now Nuno looks like the best man for the job.  He's got a track record of being a strike thrower, he mixes pitches well, and his offspeed stuff is good enough to strike out Major League hitters.

The Yankee decision makers have today to look at other alternatives, but there really isn't much else to consider.  Adam Warren is a short reliever now, David Phelps isn't stretched out to nearly enough pitches to be a viable starting option, and there's nobody in Triple-A who's better than Nuno.  After 5 years in the Minors and a couple cups of coffee, Nuno looks like he's finally going to get his big chance.

Tuesday Afternoon Food For Thought: Oganizational Rotation Depth

Projected Triple-A Starting Rotation Before Spring Training: Manny Banuelos, Jose Ramirez, Nik Turley, Vidal Nuno, Shane Greene

Projected Triple-A Starting Rotation as of Today: Greene, Bruce Billings, Brian Gordon, Alfredo Aceves, Chris Leroux

As much as I loved Joe's decision to bring Nuno north as part of the Major League bullpen and still think it was the right move, I'd be remiss if I didn't touch on the somewhat alarming transformation the RailRider rotation has undergone in the past month.  Turley and Ramirez have been down and out with injuries since early in spring camp and Ramirez will be converted to a reliever when he's healthy again, ManBan will start the year in High-A Tampa to knock some of the rust off, and with Nuno in the Yankee 'pen there is suddenly very little organizational depth behind the Yankee starting 5.

Now ManBan will make it back to Triple-A eventually and hopefully Turley's arm tightness doesn't turn into an eventual elbow or shoulder surgery, but it's still a night and day difference between what was supposed to be and what is.  No offense to any of the non-Greene members of the current SWB rotation.  They're all pros and I'm sure they'll do a fine job filling in.  It's just hard to get excited about a group of 30-something journeymen in a Triple-A rotation when the alternative was 5 legit prospects.  If an injury or 2 does happen in the Major League rotation, I'd rather see a Nuno or a Turley or even ManBan subbing in for spot starts than Aceves or Billings.  At least there's something to get excited about if the prospects do well and it's easier to chalk it up to lack of experience if they don't.

Spring Rotation Order Could Be Coming With A Dose Of Strategy

(Courtesy of the AP)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

After playing to a 3-3 tie in yesterday's game, the Yankees will get their first true off day of the spring today.  No games, no scheduled workouts at the complex, nothing.  Now 3 weeks into Spring Training and with 3 weeks remaining until Opening Day, they've reached the point where the focus starts to change and everything starts to matter a little more.  One thing Joe did over the weekend before today's off day was announce the rotation order for the next week.  If you happened to miss it in the course of your regular weekend activities, it looks like this:

Tuesday- CC Sabathia & Masahiro Tanaka (sim game)
Wednesday- Hiroki Kuroda
Thursday- Michael Pineda & Ivan Nova (split squad)
Friday- David Phelps
Saturday- Vidal Nuno & Adam Warren (split squad)
Sunday- Sabathia & Tanaka (split squad)

This coming weekend's games will be played in Panama, which is why the Yanks will have 2 starters and why they've yet to announce the first round of spring roster cuts.  Nuno and Tanaka will stay behind and make the starts in Tampa while Warren and Sabathia will travel to Panama, but the more important note here is the strategy Joe seems to be using with Sabathia and Tanaka to limit their exposure this spring.

Yanks To Go Cheap On Rotation If They Don't Sign Tanaka?

(Time to get used to the idea of Arroyo?  Courtesy of Getty Images)

In an article for The Star-Ledger earlier in the week, Andy McCullough suggested a somewhat startling possibility for the Yankees and their plans to improve their rotation should they fail to sign Masahiro Tanaka.  According to an unnamed source in the article, the plan could change without Tanaka to a more cost-conscious one:

"Cashman has discussed replicating their strategy from 2011, when Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia shined on small contracts."

This is the first I've heard of such a backup strategy, although the Yankees have been loosely linked to cheaper free agent starting options like Bronson Arroyo, Paul Maholm, and Johan Santana, the rehabbing focus of McCullough's post.  That strategy worked to perfection in 2011, when the Yanks got 311 IP, 20 wins, and 5.0 fWAR in 51 starts by Colon and Garcia.  It didn't have the same effect in 2012, when they tried to bring back Garcia to supplement more expensive FA signings Hiroki Kuroda and Andy Pettitte and got a 5.20/4.68 split and just 0.8 fWAR in 107.1 IP from him.

I wouldn't mind 1 from the Arroyo-Maholm duo, not interested in Santana on anything more than a MiL deal, but 2 would rub me the wrong way.  The Jimenezes, Garzas, and Santanas of the world are still better pitchers than those lower-level guys and are still better options for the Yankees, who need to make a serious effort to improve the rotation if they want to reap the full benefits of revamping their lineup.  In the event they don't sign Tanaka, they need to stay interested in all rotation possibilities, not just the cheap ones.

Why Brett Marshall Got DFA'd

I have to say I was more than a little surprised when I saw that Brett Marshall was the 40-man roster casualty for Carlos Beltran yesterday.  He wasn't very good in Triple-A last year as a starter or in his handful of Major League relief appearances, but he's still just 23 years old with a good fastball and a plus changeup.  That seems like a commodity much more worthy of being held onto than a washed up 35-year-old outfielder who can't hit anymore.  But in looking at the projected starting rotations for the Yankees and the SWB RailRiders, it starts to make a little more sense.

Yankee Rotation: CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, Ivan Nova, Free Agent Pitcher X, Winner of the Pineda/Phelps/Warren/Nuno ST competition (probably Pineda or Phelps)

RailRider Rotation: Manny Banuelos, Vidal Nuno, Jose Ramirez, Nik Turley, Shane Greene

With guys below him in Double-A having better years and moving up and ManBan being healthy again, Marshall's Triple-A rotation spot wasn't the sure thing it was last year.  And with Phelps and Warren already more established as Major League swingmen, Marshall wasn't going to beat them out for a spot on the 25-man roster.  His poor 2013 made him expendable and the Yankees probably felt they had enough MiL depth in Triple-A to cover for injuries.

It sucks for him and hopefully Marshall clears waivers and stays in the organization, because I do think he can develop into a decent pitcher, but that's life for a low-ceiling prospect on a team with constant 40-man roster issues.

Report: Yanks Prefer Internal Rotation Options Over Garza And Jimenez

The Yankees have been slow to act on the free agent market when it's come to their rotation so far this offseason.  They were able to bring Hiroki Kuroda back for another year, but he's just one piece to a puzzle that's still far from complete.  A new report earlier today makes it seem like one of those pieces might already be on the roster.

According to Bob Klapisch, the Yankees are not big fans of either Matt Garza or Ubaldo Jimenez and would lean towards filling one of their open rotation spots internally before signing either of those 2 top free agents.  This comes as a bit of a surprise after Brian Cashman's earlier "we need 400 innings" comment, which made it sound pretty clear that the Yankees were pursuing multiple starters.

Klapisch did add that the Yankees would still be quick to pounce on Masahiro Tanaka if and when he is posted.  But with no clear time table for that in place, they don't seem to be fond of stepping down to that next level of FA starters should Tanaka not be posted.  We already knew there was going to be a fatal 4-way for the final rotation spot, but if one of those competitors gets slotted into the 4th spot in the rotation, that leaves the back end incredibly weak.  While Garza and  Jimenez are no sure things themselves, I have to think they would be better full-time rotation options than David Phelps or Adam Warren.  We'll see how real this plan is if the Yanks don't end up with Tanaka.

Get Ready For Another Rotation Competition

(The early favorite?  Courtesy of Getty Images)

And this time it's going to be a doozy!  Buried in his post earlier this week about the Yankees making their new contract offer to Hiroki Kuroda, Andrew Marchand reported what we kind of already expected to happen with the 5th spot in next year's rotation.  With CC, Hirok, Nova, and hopefully Masahiro Tanaka manning the top 4 spots, the final spot will be determined by a Spring Training competition between Michael Pineda, David Phelps, Adam Warren, and Vidal Nuno.

So not only do we have 2 guys competing head-to-head for a spot like we used to with the now departed Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain, we're going to have us a good old fashioned fatal four-way battle for 1 spot.  What a slobberknocker!  In a perfect world, the Yankees would have enough confidence in Pineda to give him the job, since he was traded for with a top-of-the-rotation spot in mind.  But he was handled with extremely delicate kid gloves in his first year back on the field this season and Phelps has proven himself to be a capable 5th starter in limited work.

We've still got a few months before this battle starts, but if I had to say now I'd say the real competition will come down to Pineda and Phelps.  Nuno could be the dark horse as a lefty who showed some promise in limited innings.  I don't think Warren has a chance.

Tuesday Mid-Morning Food For Thought

Via Chad Jennings earlier this morning:

"Cashman mentioned that the Yankees need 'probably 400 innings' for the rotation."

- Hiroki Kuroda 2013 IP: 201.1
- Andy Pettitte 2013 IP: 185.1
- Phil Hughes 2013 IP: 145.1

- Total 2013 IP Lost: 532.0

Cash is saying he needs 400 innings next year and the Yankees lost over 500.  That number would have been closer to 600 if Hughes didn't devolve into a 4-5 inning pitcher in the 2nd half, but Cash's math gives some insight into what the Yankees are looking to do to revamp their rotation for next season.  We know CC and Nova will be there and we can assume from Cash's estimate that he's looking to add 2 starting pitchers to those 2 returnees.  That leaves 1 spot open at the back of the rotation for the Pinedas, Phelpses, Warrens, Nunos, and ManBans of the world to compete for.

Hard to argue with the logic of that strategy, as nobody in the crop of internal starting options is a good bet to replicate what Andy and Hirok did last season.  Now it's a matter of sorting out the best candidates for those 2 spots and staying aggressive in the attempts to sign them.

Report: Yanks Expected To Make Push For Tanaka

The anecdotal evidence has been adding up to the Yankees getting back into the international free agent market this offseason, and the latest report on their connections to Japanese pitcher Masahiro Tanaka makes it sound like it won't just be a token effort.

In The Post yesterday, George King reported that multiple sources anticipate the Yankees being "serious players" in the bidding for Tanaka once the process starts.  He won't be eligible to be posted by his NPB team until November 1st at the earliest, but based on the amount of time they spent scouting him this season and the obvious need they have for rotation help, Tanaka would be a great fit.  King's report called the Yankees' interest in Tanaka a "priority" this offseason, something that hasn't been said about the last few big name international FAs.

Also of interest in the story was the high level of praise that Tanaka received from scouts.  Some called him a better prospect than Yu Darvish, something I hadn't read up until today, and said he could be the best pitcher to ever come out of Japan.  That kind of ceiling could drive his price up, and right now the early expectation is that his posting fee could match the $60 million Texas paid for Darvish while his contract could exceed Darvish's 6 years/$51.7 million.  Considering they paid Hiroki Kuroda $15 mil and Andy Pettitte 12 last season, the AAV of the contract shouldn't be a concern for the Yankees.

Nova To Start Sunday

The Yankees send their ace out today to try to get a leg up in this 4-game series.  If CC is able to help them get a win today, they'll then be sending their 6th starter out to try to lock down the series victory tomorrow.  Due to the rain delay and Tuesday doubleheader earlier in the week, the Yankees need that 6th starter and it will be Ivan Nova who gets the call tomorrow instead of Kuroda or Hughes on short rest.

Nova has been the forgotten man since hitting the DL in late April.  He's lost his spot in the rotation to David Phelps and looked on the verge of losing the 6th man role until Vidal Nuno tweaked his groin recently.  He last appeared in the Majors in a 5-inning, 1-run relief effort in late May, and since then he's pitched pretty well in the Triple-A rotation (2.04 ERA/2.69 FIP over 17.2 IP in 3 starts).

The message sent by the Yankees in how they've handled Nova since he came off the DL is that they don't have a lot of faith in him, and tomorrow's start is highly unlikely to be anything more than a necessary spot start before he's sent back down.  But with the way Hughes has struggled and with Andy's back always a concern, you never know.  If Nova tosses a gem (also highly unlikely) maybe he forces his name back into consideration with Pineda still a few weeks away.

Rotation Appreciation

(Buck up, guys.  Ya done good.  Courtesy of the AP)

You don't have to be a genius to know that the starting rotation has been really good this season.  They're currently 4th in AL in ERA (3.75), 3rd in FIP (3.75), and 3rd in total fWAR (6.7).  They've put up these numbers despite dealing with injuries to multiple rotation members before and during the season, CC Sabathia's transition away from being a power pitcher, and 2 starts on their ledger when the starter didn't even make it out of the 1st inning.  The collective performance of the rotation, even with the bad starts mixed in, is the main reason the Yankees are still 10+ games over .500 while mired in another brutal offensive slump, and it's time each guy just got some props for the job he's done.

Pineda's Rotation Chances Improving With Every Rotation Problem

(Courtesy of the AP)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

It's been almost a year and a half since the Yankees acquired Michael Pineda.  Sometimes it feels like it's been even longer than that.  The reports about his early spring performance in sim games and bullpen sessions has been more than encouraging, but yesterday he took the next real step in his comeback when the team announced that he would begin his 30-day MiL rehab assignment this Saturday with High-A Tampa.  He was reportedly sitting mid-90s again in his latest ExST start on Monday and hasn't had any physical issues outside of a cracked fingernail to hold him back.  At long last, the Yanks and us Yankee fans, will get a look at their haul from that now infamous January, 2012 trade.

Andy Pettitte To The DL, Vidal Nuno Called Back Up

This doesn't come as good news after Joe talked him leaving the game early last night down like it was no big deal.  The Yankees have elected to put Andy Pettitte on the disabled list with his upper left trap injury, and have recalled Vidal Nuno from Triple-A to take his spot on the roster and presumably in the rotation as well.

It's a small bit surprising that Joe would be so open about how not big a deal the injury was in last night's presser and then have this be the move the next day.  The Yankees just got done botching the Kevin Youkilis situation, so they shouldn't really be saying boo about anybody's health if the actions aren't in agreement.  There's a chance this is the Yankees using this latest injury blip as justification for putting Andy on the DL and giving him a significant chunk of time to fully rest his back, which they didn't do last time.  That being said, it still doesn't do much to ease the concern about this being a lingering issue for Andy for the rest of the season.

Nova Ruled Out For Monday, Second Starter Options Aplenty (Updated)

Well I guess all that talk about what Nova and Phelps have to do to nail down the 5th starter spot was naught, huh?  David Phelps will be starting the first game of tomorrow's doubleheader against the Indians for sure, and after feeling something in his left side playing catch this morning, Ivan Nova will definitely not be starting the second game.  Not only will Nova not be starting, he more than likely won't be coming off the DL at all tomorrow when he's scheduled to, which puts the Yankees in a difficult position to cover the second game tomorrow now that Joe has ruled out CC Sabathia.

The most likely option is a tandem long relief start by Adam Warren and Vidal Nuno, each of whom are capable of going at least 2-3+ innings.  Not knowing if he'll have to use one or both of them today, Joe can't fully commit to that option right now and it sounds like he'll be using the new "26th man" rule for doubleheaders to give himself some insurance.

It's not your typical news source, but according to Ty Hensley's mother's Twitter account, the Yankees will call up Brett Marshall tomorrow to serve as their 26th roster man.  Marshall has been pitching in Triple-A all season (4.60 ERA/4.19 FIP in 31.1 IP), and is scheduled to make his next start tomorrow.  If Nuno or Warren becomes unavailable, Marshall will at least be able to go out and eat innings based on pitch count.  Either way, the Yanks should have at least have a plan for tomorrow night's second game.

** UPDATE 6:19 PM- Per Joe during today's postgame presser, Nuno will get the start in the second game.  Warren will be his caddy and Marshall will be on standby at the team hotel if it turns out they need another arm for the second game. **

Thoughts On Nova's Injury

(Courtesy of Reuters)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

Despite coming away with a 4-game sweep of the Blue Jays, this past weekend was another costly one for the Yankees.  In the span of just a few innings and probably less than an hour of real time, they lost both halves of their starting battery on Friday night, losing Francisco Cervelli to a fractured right hand and Ivan Nova to what was officially diagnosed as right triceps inflammation.  I already spent some time on Saturday discussing Cervelli's injury and its implications, and I do believe that will be the greater loss for the Yankees , but there's plenty to consider with respect to Nova's injury as well.  Now that we know exactly what the injury is and that he won't be spending any time under a knife to deal with it, this seems like a good time to discuss.

Ivan Nova's Shoulder Injury And Timing

(Courtesy of The AP)

As if the organization hasn't had enough problems with injuries to pitchers this season, that list got lengthened by 1 yesterday when it was reported that Ivan Nova felt something "pull" in his right shoulder during his 6th and final inning of work the other night.  Nova is already scheduled to go back to New York for tests and will miss at least his next start on Monday.  Beyond that it's unknown right now, but I imagine we'll be getting answers to those questions and find out if Nova needs a trip to the DL in the next day or so.  In the context of everything else that's going on with the starting rotation and the team right now, what does this injury to Nova mean?

Pineda Throwing Bullpens Again

As if the Andy Pettitte 2012 Comeback Party and the Phil Hughes Early-Season Struggle Extravaganza weren't enough to stoke the rotation fire, the party could be getting crowded again in the next month or so with yesterday's news that Michael Pineda threw a 25-pitch bullpen session yesterday and reported no pain or problems with his right shoulder.

The word, according to Mark Carig, is that Pineda will throw another 'pen session sometime later this week and then who knows from there.  If he comes through without any further problems, the next logical step would be a MiL rehab assignment.  But with recent memories of Hughes' shoulder problems last year still fresh in everybody's mind, it wouldn't surprise me if the Yankees played it extra careful with Pineda.  If I were a betting man, I'd say we see Andy back in the rotation before Big Mike.

Attempting To Predict Andy's Return Date

Andy Pettitte is coming. While the 5 guys currently in the rotation work to find their games and get where they need to be, the fact remains that Pettitte, barring injury, is going to be ready to join the rotation at some point in the near future. With the way his first 2 comeback/rehab starts have gone, and yes I say this knowing full well they were against High-A hitters, it looks like that date is going to come sooner rather than later. Pettitte has been effective and efficient in both of his first 2 starts, throwing 79 pitches in 7 total innings of work, and according to scouts who were on-hand to watch him Sunday, his stuff progressed very nicely from the 1st start to the 2nd. With all of that in mind, let's have a little fun and try to figure out exactly when Andy might make his return.

Joe has said already that he envisions Andy making 5 or 6 starts as part of his extended ST to build his arm and leg strength up to game shape, and he said last Sunday that he considered Andy's Sunday outing to be number 2 in that series. Andy's pitch count was 25 in his first outing and he threw 32, and it was reportedly somewhere around 45 Sunday and he threw 47. That number is still nowhere near the level he will need to be stretched out to in order to be an effective starter at the Major League level, so I think it's a safe bet to assume he will make the additional 4 starts that were a part of the plan before the Yankees even consider bringing him back. Joe also said yesterday that the plan was for Andy's pitch count to increase by about 15 in his next outing.

Considering those bits of info, and the fact that Andy received an extra day of rest between start 1 and start 2, it will be important to balance out the expected increases in pitch count over these next 4 starts while getting him back onto a regular rest cycle, which appears to be the plan heading into his next scheduled start on Friday. Combining all these factors together into a pitching plan for the remainder of his starts, I anticipate we will see something like this:

• 3rd Start: April 20th- Regular Rest- Pitch Count of 60-70 Pitches
• 4th Start: April 25th- Regular Rest- Pitch Count of 75-80 Pitches
• 5th Start: April 30th- Regular Rest- Pitch Count of 85-90 Pitches
• 6th Start: May 5th- Regular Rest- Pitch Count of 95-100 Pitches