AB4AR 2014 Season Preview: The Rotation

(Don't call it a comeback... Courtesy of the AP)

When Joe announced that Michael Pineda would be the 5th starter to open the season, he answered the final question about how the starting rotation would look in 2014.  CC, Hirok, Nova, and Tanaka had already been lined up to start the first 4 games of the regular season.  Now we know who comes after that.

What we don't know is how this rotation is going to perform, but there is plenty of reason to be optimistic and even excited about the possibilities.  The potential is there for the Yanks to have 5 legitimate top tier starters in their rotation, 5 pitchers who can come out on any given day and completely shut the opposing team down.  It's been a long time since we've been able to say that about a Yankee rotation and even though a lot needs to go right for that possibility to be realized, that still puts the team in a much more advantageous position than it's been in years.  After the jump, the player-by-player breakdown of this year's starting 5.

2014 Season Preview: What We Know And What We Don't Know (The Rotation)

(Courtesy of the AP)

When Brian Cashman took the plunge and signed CC Sabathia during the 2008-2009 offseason, it was the start of the Yankees' new commitment to building a solid starting rotation.  The main factor that kept them out of the World Series after 2003 was their lack of top notch-quality starting pitching and their lack of rotation depth.  Sabathia has given them more than what they hoped for and then some since signing, but one thing that's always lagged behind is the quality of depth behind him in the rotation.  Former top prospects like Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain didn't pan out, nor did CC's fellow big FA signing from that offseason.  The lack of back end depth became such an issue that Andy Pettitte had to be brought back and then brought back out of retirement to fortify the rotation.

He's not around this year, nor are Hughes and Chamberlain, but for the first time in a while it appears as though the Yankees have finally solved that depth problem for the short and long-term futures.  There are still a few things that need to be ironed out, but the lay of the rotation land this year is much brighter than it's been in a while.

2014 Storylines: A Rotation In Transition

(The symbolism.  Oh, the symbolism.  Courtesy of the AP)

There's nothing more important than starting pitching in today's MLB landscape.  It doesn't matter how many runs your lineup scores if your starter can't make those runs stand up, and if your lineup doesn't produce that many runs, you can still win games on the back of great starting pitching.  It's with that in mind that I kick off the 2014 "Season Storylines" series with a discussion of where the Yankee rotation finds itself heading into the 2014 season and where it might be heading in the near future.  There's a transition happening, one that could propel the Yankees back towards the top of the championship contender heap if things go right or one that could lead to their further decline down the contender ladder if they don't.

Pitchers And Catchers Report Date Prepper 2014: The Starters

(Slim CC, so hot right now.  Slim CC.  Courtesy of Amber Sabathia's Instagram)

It's Monday, February 10th, which means we're a mere 4 days away from pitchers and catchers reporting to Yankee camp.  After a long and eventful offseason, we're finally getting back to real, actual, throwing and catching and hitting baseball and that's great news.  As part of the early ST process, I'll once again be breaking down the players reporting by roster groups and giving an idea of what to expect, or at least be on the lookout for, from each guy during spring camp.  We'll get things started by looking at the contingent of starting pitchers who'll be reporting this Friday.  The projected top 4 in the season-opening rotation is all but set, but the competition for that 5th spot is as wide open as ever.

Reconsidering The Yankee Rotation With Tanaka

(Courtesy of MLB's Twitter feed)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

Before the news of the Masahiro Tanaka signing came out yesterday morning, the Yankee rotation was in big trouble.  At least that's the spin that was being put on the majority of the conversations, reports, and blog posts around the Yankosphere.  CC Sabathia was coming off a terrible year and was going to be another year older with no indication that he could ever rebound to become a good pitcher again.  Hiroki Kuroda was also going to be another year older and potentially ready to break down and regress after a poor second half in 2013.  Ivan Nova was a big, inconsistent question mark, Michael Pineda was an even bigger question mark in bold font who might never be a starter again, and the rest of the 5th starter competition contingent was nothing special.  There was no way the Yankees were going to compete for anything with that crew.

Yanks Officially Announce Tanaka Signing

Yokoso Masahiro! Tanaka officially signed a seven-year contract with the Yankees today.
— Yankees PR Dept. (@YankeesPR) January 22, 2014

There you have it.  The Yankees have officially announced the deal so any last doubts that may have lingered about it can be put to rest.  Multiple beat guys have confirmed that lefty David Huff has been DFA'd to clear a roster spot, and since we already know that the Yanks aren't going to conduct a second physical on Tanaka all that's left to speculate on is his jersey number.

Kudos to the Yankees for coming out on top of this and making all the effort they put in on scouting Tanaka worthwhile.  I know there were some doubts out there about whether or not he'd sign with them, but the allure of the playing in pinstripes is clearly still alive and well.  I'll have more thoughts on the deal and what it means for Tanaka and the Yanks moving forward tomorrow.

Yanks To Go Cheap On Rotation If They Don't Sign Tanaka?

(Time to get used to the idea of Arroyo?  Courtesy of Getty Images)

In an article for The Star-Ledger earlier in the week, Andy McCullough suggested a somewhat startling possibility for the Yankees and their plans to improve their rotation should they fail to sign Masahiro Tanaka.  According to an unnamed source in the article, the plan could change without Tanaka to a more cost-conscious one:

"Cashman has discussed replicating their strategy from 2011, when Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia shined on small contracts."

This is the first I've heard of such a backup strategy, although the Yankees have been loosely linked to cheaper free agent starting options like Bronson Arroyo, Paul Maholm, and Johan Santana, the rehabbing focus of McCullough's post.  That strategy worked to perfection in 2011, when the Yanks got 311 IP, 20 wins, and 5.0 fWAR in 51 starts by Colon and Garcia.  It didn't have the same effect in 2012, when they tried to bring back Garcia to supplement more expensive FA signings Hiroki Kuroda and Andy Pettitte and got a 5.20/4.68 split and just 0.8 fWAR in 107.1 IP from him.

I wouldn't mind 1 from the Arroyo-Maholm duo, not interested in Santana on anything more than a MiL deal, but 2 would rub me the wrong way.  The Jimenezes, Garzas, and Santanas of the world are still better pitchers than those lower-level guys and are still better options for the Yankees, who need to make a serious effort to improve the rotation if they want to reap the full benefits of revamping their lineup.  In the event they don't sign Tanaka, they need to stay interested in all rotation possibilities, not just the cheap ones.

Projecting Michael Pineda As A Starter In 2014

(Courtesy of William Perlman/The Star-Ledger)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

After 1 failed trade and 2 lost seasons, it appears as though the Yankees will finally get to see what Michael Pineda can do in 2014.  Actually, it might not be what he can do so much as they'll at least get to see him throw a pitch in a regular season game.  The shoulder injury suffered in 2012 may have taken away enough of what Pineda had to prevent him from ever being the pitcher he was or becoming the pitcher he could have been.  The Yankees certainly treated him as carefully as possible in his rehab from the injury to increase the chances of him making a full recovery.  They placed him on strict pitch count limits last year in the Minors and shut him down early after he reportedly felt some stiffness and soreness in the surgically-repaired shoulder late in the summer.  Still, there's no way to know what type of pitcher he's going to be moving forward until he's back out competing on a Major League mound.

Projecting David Phelps As A Starter In 2014

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

I continue to stand by my belief that the Yankees will not actually follow through with their plan to fill out next year's rotation from within if, for whatever reason, they don't end up signing Masahiro Tanaka.  If they do decide to take that path, however, I don't think there will be much of a competition in Spring Training to determine the final 2 spots.  Michael Pineda was brought in to be a top-of-the-rotation stud along side CC Sabathia.  Regardless of whether he's still capable of being that type of pitcher or not, the Yankees owe it to themselves to have him in next year's rotation to at least attempt to start getting some value out of that trade.

If he's the #4 starter, the last spot will more than likely go to David Phelps.  He's got more experience than any of the other young starters on the 40-man roster, he's had more success at the Major League level, and those 2 things have traditionally held the most weight when the final decision is made in the annual Yankee spring rotation competition.  Phelps has made 23 starts in his first 2 Major League seasons, pitching to a 4.39/4.15/4.17 slash line in 123.0 IP.  Nothing flashy, and his numbers have been much better as a reliever, but that type of production from the 5th spot in the rotation would be a welcome addition to a team that still needs all the pitching help it can get.

Some Cheaper Tanaka Alternatives

(Meh... Courtesy of Getty Images)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

Yesterday the news broke that the Rakuten Golden Eagles were not going to post Masahiro Tanaka this offseason.  Then some reports came out that they still hadn't decided if they were going to post him this offseason.  Then there was a report that they still would post him this offseason.  So as of right now they're not planning on posting him and they're going to offer him a record NPB contract to stay, but they might post him because they haven't decided if they want to post him even though they don't have to post him and eventually they will post him but maybe not.

As far as the Yankees are concerned, they almost have no choice but to move on assuming that Tanaka isn't going to be posted.  The process has already dragged out longer than they anticipated or wanted it to and their rotation isn't getting any better while they wait around for Rakuten to make up its mind.  The Yanks are reportedly not interested in the next tier of MLB free agent starters like Jimenez, Garza, and Santana, but I still can't see them not bringing in another pitcher and instead filling the back end of the rotation out with their internal cadre of young arms.  If they want a short-term placeholder for the rotation until next offseason, when they can hopefully try for Tanaka again, here are the most likely candidates for an offer.

Report: Yanks Prefer Internal Rotation Options Over Garza And Jimenez

The Yankees have been slow to act on the free agent market when it's come to their rotation so far this offseason.  They were able to bring Hiroki Kuroda back for another year, but he's just one piece to a puzzle that's still far from complete.  A new report earlier today makes it seem like one of those pieces might already be on the roster.

According to Bob Klapisch, the Yankees are not big fans of either Matt Garza or Ubaldo Jimenez and would lean towards filling one of their open rotation spots internally before signing either of those 2 top free agents.  This comes as a bit of a surprise after Brian Cashman's earlier "we need 400 innings" comment, which made it sound pretty clear that the Yankees were pursuing multiple starters.

Klapisch did add that the Yankees would still be quick to pounce on Masahiro Tanaka if and when he is posted.  But with no clear time table for that in place, they don't seem to be fond of stepping down to that next level of FA starters should Tanaka not be posted.  We already knew there was going to be a fatal 4-way for the final rotation spot, but if one of those competitors gets slotted into the 4th spot in the rotation, that leaves the back end incredibly weak.  While Garza and  Jimenez are no sure things themselves, I have to think they would be better full-time rotation options than David Phelps or Adam Warren.  We'll see how real this plan is if the Yanks don't end up with Tanaka.

Rotation Upgrades: Sign 'Em, Trade For 'Em, Or Wait For 'Em

("Gosh. This free agent pitching market is sooooo boring." Courtesy of John O'Boyle/The Star-Ledger)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

It's been a somewhat quiet first 2 days at the Winter Meetings for the Yankees, at least compared to last week.  Many of Cash's comments to the media yesterday were indicative of a team still trying to figure out its strategy for this week, trying to identify the best opportunity to upgrade the roster.  The bulk of the early buzz has been around next year's outfield: who's playing where, who's not playing where, who's on the trade block, and who's not.  There's also been a little talk about the open infield spots and the players currently on the radar as free agent targets, most notably Omar Infante and Mark Reynolds.

What there hasn't been is much activity on the rotation front.  The Yankees locked up what they hope will be half of the 400 innings they're looking for when they re-signed Hiroki Kuroda last Friday, and one of the major goals of this week was thought to be securing that other half.  Cash said yesterday that signing another pitcher would be easier than trading for one and he's right.  The Yanks have much more to offer by way of dollars than they do prospects.  But they don't seem to be all that interested in any of the top free agent starters, and even if they did have pieces to trade there are red flags attached to almost every conceivable trade target.  So where do the Yankees go for the rotation help they need?  Because right now they're sort of stuck in no man's land.

Homer Bailey, Eh?

Person involved says Yankees have asked Reds about Homer Bailey. Dont know if Gardner was the return piece, but sure makes sense.
— Daniel Barbarisi (@DanBarbarisi) December 10, 2013

Saw this tweet from Barbarisi last night and it made me stop and think.  Would a trade for Homer Bailey make sense for the Yankees?  I could see it.  He hasn't been a stud out in Cincy, but he's been pretty good the last few years (3.64 FIP, 6.2 fWAR since 2012).  He's only 27, he's arbitration-eligible this season and he probably would cost as much on a new deal after next season as someone like Garza or Jimenez would this offseason.

His HR rates could be a problem in The Stadium but his GB rate has improved over the last 3 years so there is something to work with to try to cut down on the long balls.  And Gardner does make sense as a return piece for the Reds.  They could use an outfielder with Choo gone and could use a real center fielder like Gardner, unless they're sold on Billy Hamilton as an everyday player.

The trade talks relative to the starting pitching market are just starting to pick up in Yankeeland.  I'd say this Bailey thing is worth keeping an eye on if it starts to get legs later this week.

Get Ready For Another Rotation Competition

(The early favorite?  Courtesy of Getty Images)

And this time it's going to be a doozy!  Buried in his post earlier this week about the Yankees making their new contract offer to Hiroki Kuroda, Andrew Marchand reported what we kind of already expected to happen with the 5th spot in next year's rotation.  With CC, Hirok, Nova, and hopefully Masahiro Tanaka manning the top 4 spots, the final spot will be determined by a Spring Training competition between Michael Pineda, David Phelps, Adam Warren, and Vidal Nuno.

So not only do we have 2 guys competing head-to-head for a spot like we used to with the now departed Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain, we're going to have us a good old fashioned fatal four-way battle for 1 spot.  What a slobberknocker!  In a perfect world, the Yankees would have enough confidence in Pineda to give him the job, since he was traded for with a top-of-the-rotation spot in mind.  But he was handled with extremely delicate kid gloves in his first year back on the field this season and Phelps has proven himself to be a capable 5th starter in limited work.

We've still got a few months before this battle starts, but if I had to say now I'd say the real competition will come down to Pineda and Phelps.  Nuno could be the dark horse as a lefty who showed some promise in limited innings.  I don't think Warren has a chance.

Chances Of Kuroda Coming Back Improving?

(Courtesy of the AP)

The last time we heard about Hiroki Kuroda, reports had him leaning towards returning to Japan next season rather than coming back for another year in MLB.  At the time, only the Yankees and Dodgers stood out as realistic MLB options if Kuroda decided to stick around for 1 more season and the Yankees, at least based on their early lack of communication with Kuroda, didn't seem to have Hirok high on their priority list.

In the last few weeks, that landscape may have changed to shift back towards Kuroda returning to the Yanks in 2014.  The Dodgers recently signed Dan Haren to a 1-year/$10 million deal, making Kuroda much less of a priority for them.  And in a story for The Post a week ago, Joel Sherman reported that the Yankees were "more upbeat" about the possibility of Kuroda coming back than they were earlier in the offseason.  Cash's stated need for 400 innings still hasn't been addressed and the continued delays in the new NPB posting agreement is keeping the Yankees from making their push for Masahiro Tanaka, so the match is very clearly there.

Tuesday Mid-Morning Food For Thought

Via Chad Jennings earlier this morning:

"Cashman mentioned that the Yankees need 'probably 400 innings' for the rotation."

- Hiroki Kuroda 2013 IP: 201.1
- Andy Pettitte 2013 IP: 185.1
- Phil Hughes 2013 IP: 145.1

- Total 2013 IP Lost: 532.0

Cash is saying he needs 400 innings next year and the Yankees lost over 500.  That number would have been closer to 600 if Hughes didn't devolve into a 4-5 inning pitcher in the 2nd half, but Cash's math gives some insight into what the Yankees are looking to do to revamp their rotation for next season.  We know CC and Nova will be there and we can assume from Cash's estimate that he's looking to add 2 starting pitchers to those 2 returnees.  That leaves 1 spot open at the back of the rotation for the Pinedas, Phelpses, Warrens, Nunos, and ManBans of the world to compete for.

Hard to argue with the logic of that strategy, as nobody in the crop of internal starting options is a good bet to replicate what Andy and Hirok did last season.  Now it's a matter of sorting out the best candidates for those 2 spots and staying aggressive in the attempts to sign them.

Here's An Idea, Ask Him

Cashman says he still doesnt know whether kuroda wants to pitch in US next season.
— Daniel Barbarisi (@DanBarbarisi) November 11, 2013

 Far be it for me to criticize or question the way Brian Cashman is doing his job, but I'm not sure I like him saying he still doesn't know what Hiroki Kuroda plans to do next year 6 weeks after the season ended.  How is that even possible?  I know Kuroda is a quiet guy, but is it really that hard to pick up the phone and put a call in to him or his agent to ask?  The Yankees have been gearing up to be aggressive on almost every other front this offseason and yet they don't know anything about their best starting pitcher's intentions?  That seems like a hole in the plan to me.

Last time I checked, the Yanks needed to replace 60% of their starting rotation next year.  If the season started today they'd be filling it with Michael Pineda, David Phelps, and Adam Warren, and I don't think anybody needs to be reminded how small an amount of the mustard that trio is going to cut.  Kuroda could be a safe, reliable 1-year stopgap for one of those open spots or he could be passed on for a younger FA option.  The only way the Yankees find out which option makes more sense for them is by first seeing what Hirok wants to do.  I'm all for giving a player time and letting him do his thing, but now that he's rejected the QO, it's time for Cash to get on the horn and start getting an idea of what Kuroda wants to do.

How Will The Kuroda-To-Japan Rumors Impact The Yankees' Offseason Approach?

(Courtesy of the AP)

In just 1 day we'll find out the decisions of the 3 players the Yankees made qualifying offers to this week.  The early signs on Cano and C-Grand point strongly towards them declining the offers, but there hasn't been much talk about Hiroki Kuroda.  He's a very quiet guy in the media by nature and there isn't anybody in the mainstream Yankosphere who's gotten a word out of him on what his thoughts might be.

The few reports that are out there right now make it sound like Hirok is leaning towards returning to Japan to pitch next year.  That's always been part of his retirement plan and it stands to reason that he would want to be able to go back there and pitch while he could still be effective.  Kuroda has fallen off in the 2nd half of the last 2 seasons, maybe he's taking that as a sign that it's time to get out of MLB while he still has something left in the tank.

Why Not ManBan For Next Year's Rotation?

(Courtesy of Corey Sipkin/NY Daily News)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

Here's a whacky idea to fill a spot in next year's rotation.  Give a spot to Manny Banuelos.  You remember Manny Banuelos, right?  Former top prospect, lefty pitcher, was striking out Double-A hitters on the reg at age 19 a few years back.  He's been out of action since early 2012 and rehabbing Tommy John Surgery since last October.  He's also been throwing for months and is expected to be 100% healthy for the start of next year.  The Yankees took a very cautious approach with ManBan's rehab, waiting almost a year before letting him pitch in simulated games late this season and shutting him down completely for the winter to let him rest.  Given the uncertainty in the back end of their 2014 rotation and the unlikeliness of the front office to spend much to fill it, they might want to consider taking the kid gloves off their former organizational crown jewel and taking a chance with him.

Where In The World Is Michael Pineda?

(Courtesy of Martin Griff/The Times of Trenton)

It's been 3 months since Michael Pineda was activated off the disabled list to continue rehabbing his shoulder from 2012 surgery.  It's been 2 months since he was removed from his final Triple-A start of the season with stiffness in that shoulder and shut down for the rest of the season.  Despite the team taking a very cautious approach with his rehab workload, and despite Cash saying at his year-end presser that Pineda was and is healthy, the fact remains that he was shut down for the season after throwing only 40.2 official MiL innings and has still yet to throw 1 regular season pitch as a Yankee after 2 years.

There's been little to no information on what Pineda has been doing since being shut down.  He spent the remainder of the regular season throwing side sessions at the team complex in Tampa, but there's been no talk of the next step or a plan for 2014.  Cash continues to take the cautious stance with Pineda, saying only that Pineda would "compete for a job" next spring and referencing the MiL options he still has remaining.  Knowing, at least based on Cash's word, that Pineda was healthy at the end of this season and knowing what the team's intentions were when they traded for him, that's just not good enough for me.