Thoughts On The Rotation Two Weeks From Opening Day

(Courtesy of the AP)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

A little over 2 weeks from right now, the Yankees will be on the road in Houston to open the 2014 regular season.  They'll be facing the immortal Scott Feldman, and barring anything unforeseen they will send CC Sabathia out for his 6th straight Opening Day start to counter.  That's one of the few definites in the starting rotation right now, and with 11 spring games left to sort out the rest, the big picture is starting to come into focus.  Some random thoughts on where the rotation stands 2 weeks from Opening Day.

Spring Rotation Order Could Be Coming With A Dose Of Strategy

(Courtesy of the AP)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

After playing to a 3-3 tie in yesterday's game, the Yankees will get their first true off day of the spring today.  No games, no scheduled workouts at the complex, nothing.  Now 3 weeks into Spring Training and with 3 weeks remaining until Opening Day, they've reached the point where the focus starts to change and everything starts to matter a little more.  One thing Joe did over the weekend before today's off day was announce the rotation order for the next week.  If you happened to miss it in the course of your regular weekend activities, it looks like this:

Tuesday- CC Sabathia & Masahiro Tanaka (sim game)
Wednesday- Hiroki Kuroda
Thursday- Michael Pineda & Ivan Nova (split squad)
Friday- David Phelps
Saturday- Vidal Nuno & Adam Warren (split squad)
Sunday- Sabathia & Tanaka (split squad)

This coming weekend's games will be played in Panama, which is why the Yanks will have 2 starters and why they've yet to announce the first round of spring roster cuts.  Nuno and Tanaka will stay behind and make the starts in Tampa while Warren and Sabathia will travel to Panama, but the more important note here is the strategy Joe seems to be using with Sabathia and Tanaka to limit their exposure this spring.

5th Starter Competition After 2 Weeks

(Courtesy of the AP)

Vidal Nuno- 2 G, 4 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K
David Phelps- 2 G, 4.2 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K
Adam Warren- 2 G, 4.1 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K
Michael Pineda- 2 G, 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K

I don't think it's 100% accurate to call Pineda the early leader in the 5th starter competition even after his impressive season debut outing last night.  He is a week or so behind the other 3 pitchers and has made 1 less appearance because of that.  But looking at what the other 3 have done in their 2 starts, 1 of which was against a college team for Nuno, I don't think any of them have done anything special to separate themselves from the pack either.  Phelps and Warren have been hittable in their 2 appearances, and none of the other 3 guys have pitched to much length in their starts.  For having the advantage of the week head start, nobody is really that far ahead of Pineda when it comes to game action.

With Pineda in action now and looking very good with his fastball, slider, and command, everybody else has to step up to keep this competition interesting.  If Pineda continues to pitch like he did last night, he's going to win the spot.

Pitchers And Catchers Report Date Prepper 2014: The Starters

(Slim CC, so hot right now.  Slim CC.  Courtesy of Amber Sabathia's Instagram)

It's Monday, February 10th, which means we're a mere 4 days away from pitchers and catchers reporting to Yankee camp.  After a long and eventful offseason, we're finally getting back to real, actual, throwing and catching and hitting baseball and that's great news.  As part of the early ST process, I'll once again be breaking down the players reporting by roster groups and giving an idea of what to expect, or at least be on the lookout for, from each guy during spring camp.  We'll get things started by looking at the contingent of starting pitchers who'll be reporting this Friday.  The projected top 4 in the season-opening rotation is all but set, but the competition for that 5th spot is as wide open as ever.

Get Ready For Another Rotation Competition

(The early favorite?  Courtesy of Getty Images)

And this time it's going to be a doozy!  Buried in his post earlier this week about the Yankees making their new contract offer to Hiroki Kuroda, Andrew Marchand reported what we kind of already expected to happen with the 5th spot in next year's rotation.  With CC, Hirok, Nova, and hopefully Masahiro Tanaka manning the top 4 spots, the final spot will be determined by a Spring Training competition between Michael Pineda, David Phelps, Adam Warren, and Vidal Nuno.

So not only do we have 2 guys competing head-to-head for a spot like we used to with the now departed Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain, we're going to have us a good old fashioned fatal four-way battle for 1 spot.  What a slobberknocker!  In a perfect world, the Yankees would have enough confidence in Pineda to give him the job, since he was traded for with a top-of-the-rotation spot in mind.  But he was handled with extremely delicate kid gloves in his first year back on the field this season and Phelps has proven himself to be a capable 5th starter in limited work.

We've still got a few months before this battle starts, but if I had to say now I'd say the real competition will come down to Pineda and Phelps.  Nuno could be the dark horse as a lefty who showed some promise in limited innings.  I don't think Warren has a chance.

Where In The World Is Michael Pineda?

(Courtesy of Martin Griff/The Times of Trenton)

It's been 3 months since Michael Pineda was activated off the disabled list to continue rehabbing his shoulder from 2012 surgery.  It's been 2 months since he was removed from his final Triple-A start of the season with stiffness in that shoulder and shut down for the rest of the season.  Despite the team taking a very cautious approach with his rehab workload, and despite Cash saying at his year-end presser that Pineda was and is healthy, the fact remains that he was shut down for the season after throwing only 40.2 official MiL innings and has still yet to throw 1 regular season pitch as a Yankee after 2 years.

There's been little to no information on what Pineda has been doing since being shut down.  He spent the remainder of the regular season throwing side sessions at the team complex in Tampa, but there's been no talk of the next step or a plan for 2014.  Cash continues to take the cautious stance with Pineda, saying only that Pineda would "compete for a job" next spring and referencing the MiL options he still has remaining.  Knowing, at least based on Cash's word, that Pineda was healthy at the end of this season and knowing what the team's intentions were when they traded for him, that's just not good enough for me.

An Audition Of Sorts For Warren Tonight

Yesterday's doubleheader threw a little hiccup into the Yankees' current rotation order.  To combat that and give the older Andy Pettitte and Hiroki Kuroda enough rest between starts, Adam Warren will start tonight's game.  The rookie has worked exclusively out of the bullpen this season and has been on the wrong side of the performance curve since June, yet that did not dissuade the Yankees from keeping him on the active roster and available to make this spot start.

There won't be too much weight put into 1 spot start, especially when it's coming almost a month after Warren's last appearance in which he threw more than 60 pitches.  But Warren can start to lay down the groundwork for his 2014 rotation competition with a good outing tonight.  His only other career Major League start is last year's 2.1-inning disaster in Chicago, a memory I'm sure Warren would like to erase and get himself a fresh start as a starting pitching prospect.  There's plenty of opportunity for him to earn a spot at the back of the rotation next spring, and this is his best chance to get a head start on the competition.

Do You Hear That, Phil?

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

Do you?  You should listen to it a little closer.  That's the sound of Michael Pineda coming.  That's the sound of your rotation spot disappearing in about a month, and possibly a nice chunk of your upcoming free agent money with it.  Take a look around, buddy.  You're the weak link in the rotation, and the truth is you have been since the minute Ivan got DL'd.  You're sitting with a 5.09/4.43/4.41 split now, with just as many bad starts than good this season after another Phil Hughes 101 clinic last night- missing in the strike zone with fastballs, inconsistency with the offspeed stuff, no ability at all to put hitters away with 2 strikes.  It's all just getting old, dude.  You're waking up today coming off another stinker and Pineda is pitching again tonight down in Tampa.

And guess what?  This time the Yankees won't shuffle guys around and roll out the red carpet for you in the bullpen.  They don't need to do that this time.  Things are just fine in the 'pen.  Maybe you'll get put on the phantom DL with more shoulder fatigue.  Maybe you'll get sent down to Triple-A to hang out with Ivan.  Maybe you will get sent out to the bullpen, to be Adam Warren's caddy and D-Rob's sock washer.  It doesn't really matter anymore.  What matters is that your act has gotten tired and Pineda is on his way.  He's coming and he's not coming just to be a placeholder for Andy's back.  He's coming for your job.

Pineda's Rotation Chances Improving With Every Rotation Problem

(Courtesy of the AP)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

It's been almost a year and a half since the Yankees acquired Michael Pineda.  Sometimes it feels like it's been even longer than that.  The reports about his early spring performance in sim games and bullpen sessions has been more than encouraging, but yesterday he took the next real step in his comeback when the team announced that he would begin his 30-day MiL rehab assignment this Saturday with High-A Tampa.  He was reportedly sitting mid-90s again in his latest ExST start on Monday and hasn't had any physical issues outside of a cracked fingernail to hold him back.  At long last, the Yanks and us Yankee fans, will get a look at their haul from that now infamous January, 2012 trade.

Pitchers & Catchers Report Date Prepper: The Starters

(The big 3.  Courtesy of Charles Wenzelberg/NY Post)

Today's the big day.  As I sit here writing this and as others of you will sit here and read it, players are making their way to the Yankees' Spring Training complex to begin their preseason work.  There's a lot that needs to be done to prepare for the 2013 season, and a lot that still needs to be worked out, but one thing will hold more true than it ever has for the Yankees this year and that's the need for their starting rotation to stay healthy and pitch effectively.  Last year's group did for stretches, especially for a period in June when Andy had joined the rotation and gotten up to full game speed, but injuries and uneven performance were the bigger storylines.  The Yankees head into camp this season with the same 6 familiar faces that finished last year vying for the 5 spots in this year's rotation, with some youth and depth behind them.

Phelps Getting The Ball Instead Of Nova, And What It Means For Both Of Them

(Tough way to go out for Ivan, but the right move.  Courtesy of the AP)

The biggest non-Mark Teixeira piece of news to come out of Yankeeland yesterday was Joe's pregame announcement that it would be David Phelps, and not Ivan Nova, who would be taking the ball for tonight's game.  At the time, this game was still a potential must-win for the Yankees to keep pace in the AL East race, a situation that has changed after the Yankees won and the Orioles lost last night.  With the way Nova has pitched in his last 2 starts and for almost the entire season, there was no way he could be allowed to take the ball in a game that important, and even though the critical nature of tonight's game has been slightly lessened, it's still a game that has a lot riding on it.  Phelps is a better option than Nova right now, that much is certain.  But looking longer term, what does this decision say about both guys moving forward?

BREAKING NEWS: Andy To Start Sunday Vs. Seattle

Via Marc Carig:

"Pettitte to start Sunday"

"with the Yankees"

Cash made it official today.  Right now, Ivan Nova is scheduled to pitch Sunday, but barring injury I can't imagine he will be the one to lose his rotation spot.  That battle will be between Phil and Dave.  But it's really happening.  Andy Pettitte is going to pitch in a Major League game wearing the Yankee pinstripes again, and that's pretty cool.

How "Ready" Is Andy Pettitte?

(Courtesy of The AP)

Far be it for me to question Andy Pettitte about his preparedness to join the Yankee rotation.  After all, he's done this for over 15 years and probably knows his body and his conditioning better than anybody, and my 3-year Little League career included no more than 5 legitimate hits at the plate and more HBPs than strikeouts on the mound.  But I have to admit that Pettitte's no-nonsense declaration that he was ready to join the rotation and implication that he expected to be called up this week raised at least one of my eyebrows, especially with the lines he's put up in his last 2 starts.

On Sunday, Andy pitched 5 innings for Triple-A Empire State, the first time he faced this high a level of competition on his comeback tour.  In those 5 innings, he allowed 5 runs (3 earned) on 8 hits and 2 walks, striking out 5 batters and throwing 92 pitches in the process.  Some defensive shenanigans inflated his line a bit, as infielders Steve Pearce and Brandon Laird both botched plays in the first 2 innings, but it was hardly a smooth outing for Pettitte.  This start comes on the heels of his previous start, a 5.2-inning Ext. ST outing that saw him give up 5 ER on 10 hits.  The general feeling right now is that Pettitte's velocity on his pitches is right where he wants it to be, but his command of his offspeed stuff isn't all the way there.  If that's the case, then I have to ask, why not give him another rehab start?

Can Phil Hughes Take The Next Step?

(Be this guy tonight, Phil.)

It's been a rocky start for Phil Hughes in 2012, even rockier when you consider how well he pitched in Spring Training.  But his most recent start last Thursday was a step in the right direction.  Despite giving up some runs on 2-out hits (aided by an Eduardo Nunez error) and a HR on a poorly-located pitch, Hughes' overall performance was better than in his first 2 starts.  He was more efficient than he had been, and despite his inability to consistently get ahead in the count (only 9/25 1st-pitch strikes) he managed to throw strikes and work deeper into the game than one would expect after the work he had to put in in the top of the 1st.  His fastball velocity continued to be good, his command of the pitch was improved, and his curveball was the best its looked to date.

The question is how Hughes will follow up that outing tonight against a much more dangerous offensive team.  We've seen CC and Kuroda both stymie the Ranger lineup through the first 2 games of this series, but they're pitchers that can be expected to do that more so than Hughes because of their more well-rounded repertoire and better command.  Hughes, after showing some improvement with his changeup in camp, has really not used it much in his early outings, and his curveball has still not been good enough to qualify as "good."  He needs to utilize those pitches better and throw them for strikes tonight to keep the Texas lineup from murdering his fastball.  Having seen what he's done with both pitches so far, the question has to be asked whether or not he can do it.

The combination of Hughes' improved 3rd outing and Freddy's BP session on Saturday have probably saved Hughes from being the primary target for rotation replacement for the time being.  He can go a long way towards solidifying his spot for the near future with a good outing against a good hitting team tonight.  In order to do so, though, he needs to build on his finish to his last outing and try to be a more complete pitcher.

As The Rotation Progresses

I'm a little short on topics this morning, so let's just have some fun with small sample sizes.  Ivan Nova's start last night was by far his best of the early spring and signified the start of the 3rd time through the rotation this spring for the six guys "competing" for a spot.  The first time through, including Hughes' "relief" start behind CC, the combined pitching line looked like this:

11.1 IP, 16 H, 8 ER, 0 BB, 10 K

Not too shabby for the first outings of the spring.  Most everybody was focusing on a particular pitch or two and pitch counts were pretty low.  Here's the line the second time through:

17.1 IP, 16 H, 6 ER, 9 BB, 8 K

Not exactly what I expected to see, although the overall numbers are a bit better; same number of hits and fewer earned runs allowed in more IP, with all 6 of the runs and 10 of the hits coming from Nova's and Pineda's second outings.  What's stands out to me is the walk totals.  For as much as the general theme was guys not having great command the first time through and having improved command the second time, not a single batter was walked in anybody's first outing and every single pitcher walked at least one batter the second time through.  I also would have expected to see a few more strikeouts the second time through, but it's still early.

If Nova's 4 shutout, walkless innings last night are any indication, this third time through could be even better.  Stay tuned.