Yanks Need To Get Back To Having A Home Field Advantage

Home is where the heart is.  It's also where the advantage is supposed to be for a Major League Baseball team.  That hasn't been the case for the Yankees through their first 94 games of the 2014 season.  Of the 41 they've played at Yankee Stadium, they have an 18-23 record.  They've been oustscored by 45 in those games and outhomered by 11.  Those results cannot continue in the final 68 games.

The Yanks will play 41 of these final 68 games at home, the most home games remaining for any team.  They open the second half tonight at home against Cincy in the first of what will be 10 straight at The Stadium, their longest homestand of the season.  The schedule on paper is set up very favorably for the Yankees, which should be a help to them and their bare bones backup rotation, but that favorability will only extend as far as the team's performance on the field takes it.  They haven't hit well at home, they haven't pitched well at home, and they've had no home field advantage whatsoever this year.  That needs to change if they're going to make a run.

Monday Morning Musings After A Week Off

(Originally posted at IIATMS/TYA)

I got to watch the Germany-Brazil World Cup semifinal match on Tuesday in Germany at an outdoor hotel bar surrounded by German people.  Say what you want about the sport itself, but soccer fans are easily the most passionate, energetic sports fans in the world.  The amount of celebrating that was going on in the streets of Hannover after the game was similar to what we see in the US when major colleges win their football or basketball national championships.  And this game wasn't even for a championship.  Soccer people just LOVE them some soccer.  I can't think of a time in the last 5 years when a Yankee Stadium environment was even close to half as crazy as that scene.

Not that the Yankees have given the fans much reason to cheer this season.  Or last.  They've been just as bad and almost as boring as last year's team, and they figure to get more boring in the second half now that Masahiro Tanaka is on the DL.  I love blogging about the Yankees and getting a chance to write something outside of the normal business tone, but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't glad to have a week off from this last week.  This whole organization has stagnated to such a degree that it's hard to muster up the energy to get mad when they lose or get too happy when they win anymore.

Now that I've had a chance to get back home, recharge, and catch up on everything I've missed, here are some hot takes on the Yanks and their position in the AL as they stumble into the All-Star break.

A Week Gone By And Not Much Has Changed

Greetings from the Hannover airport, gang.  I got here way too early for my flight to Paris and had to pay for wifi, but whatever.  The important thing is my week of work training is over, the time gap between me and the baseball world is starting to shrink as I head back home today, and the blogging can resume as normal.

At first glance, it looks like I missed a lot in the last week.  Masahiro Tanaka has gone on the DL with a torn UCL that is going to eventually require TJS and the resulting lost year  no matter how good the Yankees think their rehab strategy is (spoiler alert- it's not).  There are 3 new starting pitchers in the rotation in the form of the called up Shane Greene and the traded for Brandon McCarthy and Jeff Francis.  None of that inspires confidence, but those are pretty big changes, right?

Not really.  The reality of the situation is that nothing has changed in Yankeeland.  For better or worse really.  They went 3-3 in the past week with a -4 run differential, putting them at 46-46 on the season with a -38 run differential.  They still can't hit (looking at you, Brian McCann and Carlos Beltran), their bullpen is still drastically overworked and not deep enough to account for that, and they're still just close enough to the playoff races - 5 out in the division and 2.5 out of the wild card - to not really be out of them while at the same time not really qualifying as "contenders".  The All-Star break is coming at the perfect time for them, but there's little reason to expect the second half to be any better or different than the first.  This year's team has officially become more mediocre and more boring than last year's.  Gotta love Yankee baseball!

P.S.- Sorry about your broken face and concussion, Carlos.  Gotta keep that head on a swivel, chief.

Reviewing The Yankees' Fake Options To Improve The Offense

(If you had a ghost runner, you could try again.  Courtesy of the AP)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

I tried to be level-headed and calm about dissecting the real options the Yankees have in front of them to get something going offensively and look where that got us.  With 4 hits in the next 9 innings and only 1 run scored, that run scoring not because somebody came up with a big hit with runners in scoring position, but because the defender who caught a pop up accidentally hit the baserunner trying to advance to second with his throw.  The Yankees had 1 run scored and 0 runs batted in last night, and if I'm being honest, I'm afraid they won't have the stones to do any of the 3 options I covered yesterday.  So screw it, let's investigate some "other" ways they can try to jump start the offense.

Reviewing The Yankees' Options To Improve The Offense

(This guy sucks.  Courtesy of the AP)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

The Yankees lost for the 7th time in their last 9 game last night, and they lost again primarily because their lineup simply can't score.  They're the Beavis and Butthead of offensive production, and at the halfway point of the regular season it's no longer a matter of waiting for guys to get healthy, get comfortable, or "come around".  It's a huge problem, one that's been the biggest reason why this team is floundering around the .500 mark with one of the worst run differentials in MLB and one that needs to be addressed immediately.

Up to now, Joe has been hesitant to do too much with the lineup.  The last move of significance he made was demoting Alfonso Soriano to the bench and that happened weeks ago.  The front office has also been hesitant to make any moves, be they of the "shakeup" variety or the variety that actually helps improve the team.  There have been plenty of suggestions over the past few weeks as to what can be done to help get the offense going and both Joe and Cash have plenty of options in front of them should they decide to stop doing nothing.  With the trade deadline drawing closer every day and the postseason race about to really begin, here's a quick recap of the paths that can be taken to try to generate more offense.

Upcoming Toronto Series Starts Gut Check Time For The Yanks

The Yankees are fresh off their second 9-game road trip of the season and this past one was the tougher of the 2.  3 games against a red hot Royals club, 3 against an unexpectedly competitive Seattle team, and 3 against the best team in the American League in the A's.  They came through it with a positive 5-4 record, although those results did little to help them gain ground in the AL East race.

That race comes back into full focus for the next month, starting tonight when the Yankees host division-leading Toronto for a 3-game set.  It will be the first of 5 straight series against AL East opponents, including another 3-gamer in Toronto this time next week, and 12 of those 15 games will be played at home.  Tonight marks the first time the Yankees have faced a divisional opponent since the first week of May and the first time they've faced the Blue Jays since the second series of the season when they took 2 of 3 in Toronto.

Thursday Late Morning Food For Thought: Home Field Blues

It seems clear Yanks don't win at home because they don't hit home runs and other teams do. On the road, their pitching can dictate outcomes
— David Waldstein (@DavidWaldstein) June 12, 2014

David Waldstein tweeted that thought out earlier this morning in response to last night's victory, and while it's not 100% accurate, there are shreds of truth in there that can help explain some of the team's offensive struggles.

It's not that the Yankees don't hit home runs at home.  Of their 52 total HR to date, they've hit 35 of them at home in 29 home games and 17 in 35 games on the road.  But the suggestion that the Yankees are not taking full home field advantage at YS3 is a valid one.  They've scored 106 runs in their 29 home games, good for 3.65 runs per game, compared to 150 runs in their 35 road games, good for a 4.29 R/G average.  In 6 more road games, they have 50 more total hits, including more doubles and triples and more stolen bases as a result.  The value of the higher power output at home is not being maximized because there haven't been as many guys on base to drive in.

Monday Late Morning Food For Thought: Enough Is Enough, And It's Time For A Change*

Yesterday's game was the culmination of 2 weeks of horrifically bad offensive production.  There were some legitimate excuses for that while guys like Teix and Beltran were out of the lineup, but they both returned last week and those returns did nothing to change the piss poor performance.  1-17 with runners in scoring position is almost unfathomable, even more so when you consider the fact that the 1 hit they did get with RISP yesterday didn't even score a run.  Heading into tonight's game, here's where the Yankees find themselves offensively:

• 13th in the American League (out of 15 teams) in Runs Scored with 249
• 12th in OBP (.315)
• 10th in SLG (.382)
• 12th in wOBA (.309)
• 13th in wRC+ (91)
• 14th in total position player fWAR (4.4)

The Yanks left themselves vulnerable to this when they tried to fill out their roster on the cheap, they took a passive wait-and-see approach with the injuries and lost out on a player who could have helped the offense, and now they're reaping what they've sewn.  The time for excuses is gone now and all that matters is fixing this.  I'm not sure what can or will be done but it better be something.  Despite their poor offensive output, the Yanks are only 5 games out in the loss column in the AL east and 2 out in the Wild Card.  If they're going to stay committed to contending, which is what they said they were doing when they had the big offseason spending spree, maintaining this status quo ain't going to cut it.

* P.S.- If you got that Owen Hart reference in the post title, I want to be friends with you.

BOOOOOO...

32 runs scored in the last 12 games.

Boo!

3 runs scored or fewer in 15 games since the start of May.  3-12 record in those games.

BOO!!

1-17 with RISP today.

BOOOOO!!!!

BOOOOOOOO!!!!!!

Still batting 2nd:

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!

Joe Searching For Some Life On A Lifeless Ballclub

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

I didn't watch much of last night's game even though I had it on ESPN because the Rangers were obviously the priority, but I did have the Gameday feed up so I followed along enough to know that last night was another in what's become a common theme of Yankee losses.  It was their 4th in a row, 6th in their last 8 games, and the 6th straight game in which they failed to score more than 4 runs.  They scored early, with 4 runs in the 3rd inning, then never scored again as their below replacement-level 5th (4th??) starter and Quad-A middle relief corps slowly and methodically killed the 4-run lead they were given.

In boxing terms, last night's game was like a Floyd Mayweather fight.  The A's were the better team, the Mayweather in the matchup, and they knew it.  Instead of changing their approach, they stuck with what they do best, played their game, and slowly picked the Yankees apart by outclassing them as a baseball team and winning an easy decision.  Outclassed is a perfectly appropriate term here too, because last night the Yankees were outclassed by the A's.  The A's did everything better than the Yankees last night.  There was never any doubt, in my mind, that they were going to come back and win that game the minute Yoenis Cespedes hit his first home run to get them on the board.

Wednesday Morning Food For Thought: How Bad Have The Yankees Been Against Left-Handed Pitching?

Joe took a big swing at his lineup last night to try to get some offense going.  He loaded up on right-handed bats against southpaw starter Scott Kazmir, inserting John Ryan Murphy and Scott Sizemore into the lineup for Kelly Johnson and Brian McCann, and giving Brendan Ryan a night at shorstop while The Captain DH'd.  The results weren't there again (2 runs and only 1 XBH against Kazmir), and it made me wonder if the Yankees just stink against lefties this year.  Have they been so bad that it necessitated all the moves Joe made?

Not really.  As a team, the Yankees have a .716 OPS against LHP this season.  It's not great by any means, but at 17th in MLB it's hardly the worst in the world.  The Yanks have actually been worse against right-handed starters with a .697 team OPS and an 18-19 records against them compared to 11-9 in 20 games against lefties.

There's certainly no harm in changing things up when your team isn't hitting, and with somebody like McCann I have no problem with Joe using the L/R matchup game to give him a day of rest.  Production against southpaws has not been the Yankees' biggest problem this year, however, and Joe might be better served tweaking his batting order against righties (coughcough, move Jeter down, cough cough!!) to help pull his club out of this offensive funk.

Power Outage

May 17th- Yankees hit 5 home runs and 1 double in a 7-1 victory over the Pirates.

12 games since- Yanks have hit 4 HR, 2 triples, and 9 doubles.

6 XBH in 1 game, 15 total XBH in a dozen games.  That's not bad, that's awful.  The Yanks haven't hit a home run since 5/25 and the complete lack of power in their lineup was never more exposed than last night against Ricky Nolasco, the guy who came into the game with the second most hits allowed and second highest ERA among all qualifying pitchers in the AL.

They're all saying the right things about the power problem, but talk is cheap.  They don't know what they're going to get from Teix or Beltran in the power department thanks to their arm injuries, they already know they're not going to get much from guys like Jeter and Roberts, and at this point who knows what to expect from Soriano and McCann.  The lack of pop is a huge problem and it needs to be addressed.  They can't continue to hit this weakly with this patchwork rotation.

Bottom Of The Order Coming Up Big Lately

(I'm actually going to say something positive about Ichiro.  Believe it.  Courtesy of Getty Images)

Consistent offensive production continues to be a big problem for the Yankees as May winds down.  Carlos Beltran is on the DL, Teix may or may not have to join him because of his wrist stiffness, and Brian McCann and Alfonso Soriano have been unable to find their footing to carry the middle of the order.  Despite all of this, the Yankees have won 4 of their last 6 games and 8 of their last 12 over the last 2 weeks.  It's been the bottom of the order and the rotating cast of characters inhabiting it that have had a lot to do with that.

Yankees' Run Differential Starting To Tell A More Accurate Story

As we approach the quarter pole of the regular season, the Yankees have fallen back to .500 and the middle of the pack in the AL East.  They've lost 4 in a row and 9 of 13, leaving them with a 19-19 record and a -18 run differential that is 3rd worst in the AL behind the Astros and the Rangers.  A few weeks ago, when they were playing better baseball and winning, the negative run differential was downplayed because of the small sample size of games.  Now that the sample has grown, a split of those 38 games shows a disturbing trend:

First 19 Games: 11-8 Record, 75 Runs Scored/84 Runs Allowed (-9 differential)

Last 19 Games: 8-11 Record, 94 Runs Scored/103 Runs Allowed (-9 differential)

Based on that split, the Yankees have basically played the same brand of baseball since Opening Day.  They've scored more runs and given up more runs over the last 19 games, but it's basically been below-average baseball and that's reflected in the matching run differentials.  They outplayed their run differential in the first 19 games and won a few games more than they should have and they weren't able to do that over the last 19 games, which is why they are where they are with a .500 record.

If luck wasn't on their side in the first 19, we'd probably be looking at a 17-21 team that's perfectly in line with its Pythagorean-expected record.  Considering all the injuries that have happened in the last 19, that doesn't exactly bode well for the future.

An Airing Of Grievances From A Frustrating Weekend At Miller Park

(Avoiding this dude on Saturday Friday night was literally the only good play Jeter made all weekend.  Courtesy of Getty Images)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

For those who didn't know, my family came out to Milwaukee this past weekend for the Yankees-Brewers series.  They hadn't been out here in a few years and our favorite baseball team coming out to my neck of the woods was as good a reason as any to break that streak.  The girlfriend was also along for the ride, so with her meeting the fam for the first time and them meeting her for the first time, it was a pretty big social event.

More relevant to this post than that were my expectations for the series.  Despite losing the DH and coming in not playing the best baseball in May, those expectations were very high.  The Brewers were 4-6 in their last 10 games before this series and had been playing .500 baseball for the past few weeks after their white hot start.  I thought the Yankees were set up perfectly to come in off their series win in Anaheim, get another road series win, and set themselves up for an extended run of success against a relatively weak schedule over the next few weeks.  They got the W on Friday night, but for the most part these 3 games were not encouraging.  All in all, the weekend was a constant series of reminders of just how flawed a ballclub the Yankees are.

Musing On The Interleague Outfield Rotation

The Yankees have an off-day today as they make the trip from Los Angeles to good old Milwaukee.  They start a 3-game series against the Brewers tomorrow night, their 2nd interleague series of the young season and the first in which they'll be the road team.  Including these 3 upcoming games, the Yankees will play 7 of their next 12 games as the interleague road team, which means 7 of the next 12 without the benefit of the DH.

The Yanks have had a pretty solid outfield rotation working so far this year.  Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, and Carlos Beltran are the clear top 3, but Alfonso Soriano has gotten some time in place of Beltran and Ichiro Suzuki has been a surprisingly consistent offensive and defensive contributor as the 5th outfielder.  Without the benefit of the DH spot in the lineup, that rotation will have to shorten and Joe's going to have some work to do when it comes to giving everybody the proper amount of playing time and rest.  Piggybacking on an idea that Mike Axisa touched on earlier this morning, I'm curious to see how Joe handles juggling those top 4 guys.

Where Has All The Offense Gone?

(I feel ya, Jacoby.  I feel ya.  Courtesy of the AP)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

The Yankees should have been catching a big break last night.  Seattle choosing to push back Wednesday's scheduled starter Roenis Elias rather than skip him meant the Yanks got to avoid getting carved up by Felix Hernandez for the 457th time.  Of course, there's always that pesky theory about the Yankees never being able to hit rookie pitchers and it played out in full effect last night as Elias held the lineup to 2 runs (1 earned) through 7 innings while striking out 10.  2 runs isn't enough to get it done with the rotation in the kind of shape it's in these days and it didn't get it done last night.

Off-Day Comes At The Right Time Again

The early April schedule wasn't especially kind to the Yankees from a scheduling standpoint, but since that first 13-game stretch they've actually had one of the more favorable deals in MLB with scheduled off-days on each of the last 3 Mondays.  The timing of those off-days has been a huge benefit in each of the last 2 weeks, as they gave the Yanks an extra day to deal with the losses of Francisco Cervelli and Ivan Nova and extra time off for some older players who needed it to rest some sprains and strains.  They have a few more bumps and bruises after this weekend series and once again the off-day comes up at the absolute perfect time.

- Brett Gardner was held out of last night's game after getting hit by a pitch on the foot on Saturday.  He could have been used in a pinch last night, but this extra day off should have him ready for tomorrow.

- Ditto Yangervis Solarte, who Joe scratched with a sore shoulder before last night's game.  It doesn't sound too serious and right now Solarte is expected to be ready to go tomorrow as well.

- He isn't hurt, but Derek Jeter went without a day off all weekend despite a Friday night/Saturday afternoon schedule in the first 2 games.  He had the quad issue a few weeks back that the day off on the 14th really helped.  A day off his feet today should do his body good.

- Also not injured, but D-Rob has pitched in 3 of the last 4 days and threw 24+ pitches on Saturday and Sunday.  If the Yanks were playing tonight, he probably wouldn't be available.

New York's next scheduled off-day is Thursday, May 8th, when they'll travel from LA to Milwaukee.  The day off today should be enough to prepare them for the next 9-game stretch.

Basking In The Good Pitching Afterglow

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

Quality of opponent being what it was, yesterday's doubleheader shutout was still a splendid performance by the Yankee pitching staff.  They got very good to outstanding outings from 2 25-year-old starters and some solid bullpen work from a bunch of mostly young and unheralded pitchers all working in higher-leverage roles thanks to the closer being on the DL.  It was a continuation of what has quickly been established as the norm for this group since the opening week of the season.  These guys can pitch, all of them, and they've been the driving force behind the Yankees' early success.

The Yanks open a weekend series tonight in Tampa with the 2nd best record in the American League, a place atop the AL East, and they've done it mainly on the back of their pitching staff while the new lineup continues to work out the kinks and find its way.  It's a very refreshing change of pace from where the rotation was early in the year last season, and I'd like to take a few moments to enjoy it.

Random Thoughts & Afterthoughts From The First Two Weeks

(Gotta be the early leader for play of the year, no?  Courtesy of Getty Images)

The opening 2 weeks of the 2014 regular season have come and gone, and there's already an abundance of things to talk about in Yankeeland.  The Bombers woke up this morning atop the AL East, albeit as part of a 3-way tie with the Blue Jays and Rays.  Considering all the injury problems they've had to deal with and the slow start the heart of their order got off to, I'm more than happy to see them where they are with a 7-6 record.  The starting pitching has been very good (1st in MLB in IP, 2nd in BB/9, 10th in K/9, tied for 9th in fWAR), the offense is starting to heat up and really hasn't been as horrible as their run total might indicate (.335 team wOBA is 6th best in MLB), and they've gotten just enough from their makeshift bullpen (specifically Kelley, Warren, and Betances) to not have the loss of D-Rob be a total disaster.

While the team rests up and ices down in preparation for their interleague series with the Cubs tomorrow, here are some of my thoughts on what we've seen in the first 2 weeks.