Kelly Johnson Is Starting To Get Some Shine

("Thanks for the at-bats, guy."  Courtesy of Getty Images)

When the offseason ended and the Yankee roster started to take shape over ST, it looked like Kelly Johnson was going to be an important piece.  He could play a lot of positions, he could play the infield ones well, he had left-handed power.  He was like Joe's "Draw 4" Wild card in Uno that he could use at any time in any situation.  Then Yangervis Solarte came out hitting like a maniac and Brian Roberts' switch-hitting body managed to stay healthy enough to play and suddenly KJ was the odd man out, getting his only playing time when Teix was hurt and he had to play out of position at first.

Now Solarte is really slumping at the plate, Roberts' body is banged up, and Johnson finds himself back in his regular position getting regular playing time.  He's been a fixture in the bottom of the batting the last few games and could finally be starting to settle into the role he should have been playing all along.

D-Rob Striking Out Everybody And Their Mothers

David Robertson gave up 5 ER in 0.2 innings on June 1st, blowing a save against the Twins in spectacular fashion.  Everybody threw up their hands, cried to the heavens, and called for him to be ousted as closer so that Dellin Betances, the new Mariano Rivera, could be ushered into his rightful spot on the throne.

Funny thing, D-Rob has picked up right where he left off before that bad outing.  You know, when he was dominating the American League with his curveball and striking out anything with a pulse and a bat in its hand.  He's made 5 appearances since the last blown save, converted 4 straight save opportunities, and has given up no runs, 2 hits, and 2 walks in 4.2 IP over that stretch while striking out 9 of the 18 batters he's faced.

That gives D-Rob 41 Ks in 22.2 IP for the season, a cool 43.6% K rate that's nipping at the heels of the almighty Betances.  Since the start of May, he's struck out 36 of the 72 total batters he's faced, a perfectly even 50.0% K rate.  The lesson, as always, is don't worry about D-Rob.

Yankees' Run Differential Starting To Tell A More Accurate Story

As we approach the quarter pole of the regular season, the Yankees have fallen back to .500 and the middle of the pack in the AL East.  They've lost 4 in a row and 9 of 13, leaving them with a 19-19 record and a -18 run differential that is 3rd worst in the AL behind the Astros and the Rangers.  A few weeks ago, when they were playing better baseball and winning, the negative run differential was downplayed because of the small sample size of games.  Now that the sample has grown, a split of those 38 games shows a disturbing trend:

First 19 Games: 11-8 Record, 75 Runs Scored/84 Runs Allowed (-9 differential)

Last 19 Games: 8-11 Record, 94 Runs Scored/103 Runs Allowed (-9 differential)

Based on that split, the Yankees have basically played the same brand of baseball since Opening Day.  They've scored more runs and given up more runs over the last 19 games, but it's basically been below-average baseball and that's reflected in the matching run differentials.  They outplayed their run differential in the first 19 games and won a few games more than they should have and they weren't able to do that over the last 19 games, which is why they are where they are with a .500 record.

If luck wasn't on their side in the first 19, we'd probably be looking at a 17-21 team that's perfectly in line with its Pythagorean-expected record.  Considering all the injuries that have happened in the last 19, that doesn't exactly bode well for the future.

Murphy Adapting Well To Backup Role

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

There was a lot of talk about the Yankees possibly trading one of their surplus catchers in Spring Training, and it was widely known that multiple teams were scouting those catchers in March.  But after wallowing through last season with Chris Stewart and Austin Romine, I think the front office learned its lesson and they wisely chose to hold onto all of them.  When Francisco Cervelli went down with his annual April injury, the Yanks had a decision to make on who to call up to take his spot.  Rather than go with the more experienced Romine, they chose last year's breakout prospect John Ryan Murphy, signifying a passing of the prospect torch from Romine to Murphy and the team valuing talent over experience.

Kids Contributing When They Get Their Chances

John Ryan Murphy: 2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI yesterday.  .308/.308/.538 (.369 wOBA) in 13 PA this season.

Dellin Betances: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 K yesterday.  0.77 ERA/1.63 FIP, 19 K in 11.2 IP this season.

How long have we been hearing that the Yankees need to "give the kids a shot"?  It's an annual cry from the fanbase.  Well, they're giving kids shots this year and those kids are coming up big.  J.R. Murphy has looked good behind and at the plate in his limited PA since coming up to replace Cervelli, and Betances has been electric in his middle relief work, showing what many believed he was always capable of doing if he harnessed his command.  Add in the positive contributions of 20-somethings like Tanaka, Pineda, Adam Warren, and Yangervis Solarte, and it's been a deep and balanced contribution from the younger Yankee contingent.

The Talented Mr. Solarte

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

So Yangervis Solarte is really getting it done, huh?

- .373 batting average (2nd in AL)

- .444 wOBA (3rd in AL)

- 193 wRC+ (4th in AL)

- 19 hits (6th in AL)

- 7 doubles (2nd in AL)

The .429 BABIP is still unsustainably high, but there's reason to believe this is more than just Solarte getting lucky in a small sample size.  He's got a 10.3% BB rate and a 13.8% K rate, so he's displaying an understanding of the strike zone and some good contact skills.  He popped his first career home run last night too, and his .196 ISO is more than good enough to get it done in an everyday or bench role.  Eventually the BIP luck is going to turn and his numbers will go down.  For now though, he's fun to watch and he's giving the Yankees way more than they hoped for.  Strange to say, but he might be the most popular Yankee in town right now.

First Inning Woes

Yankee Starters in 1st Inning: 3 IP, 6 H, 6 ER

Yankee Starters in All Other Innings: 14.2 IP, 11 H, 4 ER

If you don't have a calculator handy, that's an even and ugly 18.00 ERA in the 1st inning and a much prettier 2.45 ERA in every other inning pitched by the Yankees' starters in the first 3 games.  They haven't done themselves any favors by giving up early runs and putting the offense in early holes and that's a trend that can't continue once the opponents start being better teams than the Astros.  Nothing to really be worried about long-term though.  Pitchers are still working themselves into full game shape and there's always some extra adrenaline flowing in your first start of the season.  Just strange to see the Yanks stumble out of the blocks 3 games in a row.

Saturday Afternoon Food For Thought: ST Starter Results

CC Sabathia- 5 G, 21.0 IP, 13 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 16 K
Hiroki Kuroda- 4 G, 11.1 IP, 15 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 12 K
Ivan Nova- 5 G, 19.2 IP, 21 H, 8 ER, 2 BB, 21 K
Masahiro Tanaka- 5 G, 21.0 IP, 15 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 26 K
Michael Pineda- 4 G, 15.0 IP, 14 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 16 K

Total- 88.0 IP, 78.0 IP, 24 ER, 10 BB, 91 K

We all know by now that Spring Training stats don't mean anything.  That said, it's hard to look at what the Yankee rotation has done this spring and not be impressed.  They've been great.  All of them.  The only really shaky-looking numbers are Kuroda's and all 6 of his ER came in 1 bad start.  He's been money every other time and very sharp in MiL outings.

The true test starts in a few days, but the Yankee rotation has passed the ST mid-term with almost straight A's.  CC looks healthy, sharp, and much more comfortable than he did last year.  Nova's more calm and confident.  Tanaka and Pineda have each looked overwhelming at times.  Based on what they've done this spring, this is the most excited I've ever been about a Yankee rotation heading into the start of the season.  Ever.

Late Spring Training Winners And Losers

(Courtesy of the AP)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

Somebody cue the music because we've reached the final countdown.  We're now only a week away from Opening Day.  This time next week we won't be talking about who's going to make the bullpen or win the 5th starter competition or what the batting order should look like because all of that stuff will be decided.  That means the guys in camp still competing for roster spots or clearer roster definitions don't have much time left to prove their worth.  A little less than 3 weeks ago, I singled out some of the early winners and losers in Spring Training.  In the time since, the winner/loser landscape has almost completely changed, as it's wont to do when the sample sizes become a bit larger and roster cuts start being made.  With a handful of ST games remaining, here is the updated list for who's sitting pretty and who's not.

Early Spring Training Winners And Losers

(Yangervis Solarte, Spring Training MVP.  Courtesy of US Presswire)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

The Spring Training game schedule is now a shade over a week old after yesterday's game.  Not all of the starting pitchers have made 2 appearances yet, not all of the starting position players have seen a ton of action yet, and there's still a handful of players who have yet to make their 2014 debut.  In so many words, it's still very early.  With only 9 games down and another 3+ weeks to go, Spring Training 2014 and all its associated roster battles are not even close to being over, and what will happen over the next 3+ weeks will surely factor more heavily into the final 25-man decisions than what's happened over the last 9 games.  That said, it's not like the first 9 games have been completely meaningless.  Here are some of the early spring camp winners and losers thus far.

Tuesday Mid-Morning Food For Thought

Boone Logan was not part of the group that received qualifying offers yesterday, nor should he have been.  On the strength of his time in New York, he's free to go get himself a fat new contract and in all likelihood that contract offer won't be coming from the Yankees.  His departure leaves a big void in the bullpen for the lefty specialist role next year, but some small September sample size success could be a clue as to who Logan's replacement will be.

(Courtesy of Texas Leaguers)

That's Cesar Cabral's pitch plot against lefties from his 8 September appearances this season.  In those 8 appearances, he faced 9 left-handed batters.  1 of them got a hit, 1 of them flew out, 1 of them was hit by a pitch (David Ortiz!!!), and 6 of them struck out.  Based on that pitch plot - fastballs on the corners of the strike zone and sliders that were thrown in the strike zone for called strikes and down and out of the zone for swinging strikes - it's reasonable to pencil Cabral in as the early favorite for the LOOGY job next year.  Small sample size or not, that's dominance.

We all know Joe loves to play the matchups when the situation calls for it and we know how much the Yankees like Cabral.  They kept him on their roster all last year when he was injured and all this year while he was rehabbing before giving him his September audition.  If he stays healthy, he could prove to be a cheap and valuable replacement bullpen piece in 2014.

Wednesday Afternoon Food For Thought

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

Adam Warren had himself a pretty good rookie season in 2013.  Just like his clone David Phelps in 2012, he gave the Yankees more than they were anticipating having to get from him, filled a variety of different roles when situations called for them, and had moments of success in each of those roles.  He'll be a more important piece of the pitching staff equation next year, but in what capacity?  Is he a viable starting candidate?  Is he best staying in the flexible long relief role?  Or could he become an effective 1-inning reliever?  Here's a quick statistical breakdown of how Warren fared in different situations this year:

- 1 IP < : 10 G, 8 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 2 HR, 4 BB, 2 K

- 1+ IP-3 IP: 17 G, 37 IP, 50 H, 22 ER, 7 HR, 17 BB, 39 K

- 3+ IP: 7 G, 32 IP, 24 H, 5 ER, 1 HR, 9 BB, 23 K

Hard to draw anything conclusive from those sample sizes, but Warren did have most of his success pitching in longer appearances or shorter appearances.  That middle ground is where he really took a beating, although it's also where he racked up most of his strikeouts.  With Phelps and Pineda back in the mix next year, and presumably a free agent starter or 2 added as well, it will be interesting to see how the Yankees decide they can best utilize Warren.

Monday Mid-Morning Food For Thought

Since Damon Oppenheimer took over as amateur scouting director during the 2005-2006 offseason, here is the breakdown of position players drafted by the Yankees who have made it to the Majors as Yankees:

• Colin Curtis- Played in 2010 (Drafted 2006)
• Austin Romine- 2011, 2013 (Drafted 2007)
• Brandon Laird- 2011 (Drafted 2007)
• David Adams- 2013 (Drafted 2008)
• Corban Joseph- 2013 (Drafted 2008)
• J.R. Murphy- 2013 (Drafted 2009)

That's it.  That's the list.  Those 6 players have combined for 172 games played and 443 plate appearances as part of the Yankee Major League roster.  72.2% of those PA were racked up by Romine and Adams this past season.  In those 443 PA, they've produced -1.3 total fWAR.

If you're looking for a major (maybe THE major) reason why the Yankee roster has become so old and brittle and stagnant over the last few years, there it is.  They haven't developed and inserted a single useful everyday position player into their lineup in Oppenheimer's time at the helm of amateur scouting and drafting.  That's influenced some by trades, and in fairness their results with pitchers have been better, but that's still a terrible track record to have after 8 drafts.  Even with those results and even with his mostly miss record in the 1st round, somehow Oppenheimer survived last week's meetings and will be back at the helm of amateur scouting again this year.  Welcome to Bizarro World, folks.

Andy Making A Late Season Charge

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

For the better part of this summer, Andy Pettitte has been more problem than solution.  The majority of his starts in June and July after coming off the DL were of the "5-6 IP, 4ish ER allowed" variety, and paired with the struggles of Hughes and CC helped hasten the team's fall in the playoff race.  His 7-run disaster against the White Sox earlier this month may have been the low point of the season, but after last night's excellent start it's looking like it also could have been the turnaround point for him.

Late Thursday Morning Small Sample Size Turnaround

Last Friday, the Yankees were in the midst of another offensive slump, a slump that had them sitting at 1-5 in their last 6 games with only 16 runs scored.  This latest slump was extra frustrating due to it coming after Alfonso Soriano, Curtis Granderson, and Alex Rodriguez has been added to the lineup and provided next to no offensive spark.  Since then, things have turned around in a big way:

- Soriano last 6 games: .280/.308/.920 w/ 7 R, 15 RBI in 26 PA

- C-Grand last 6 games: .429/.520/.667 w/ 6 R, 2 RBI in 25 PA

- A-Rod last 6 games: .250/.286/.500 w/ 3 R, 4 RBI in 21 PA

These 3 have combined for 7 HR in New York's last 6 games, and not coincidentally the Yankees have gone 5-1 in those 6 games with 39 runs scored.  For the first time since late April-early May, the lineup looks competent, competitive, and downright dangerous.  Amazing what happens when the middle of the batting order starts producing, ain't it?

Friday Morning Small Sample Size Food For Thought

- Alfonso Soriano since the trade: .244/.279/.415, .303 wOBA in 43 PA

- Curtis Granderson since his return: .167/.348/.333, .318 wOBA in 23 PA

- Alex Rodriguez since his return: .273/.429/.273, .340 wOBA  in 14 PA

The Yankees are 3-8 since the Soriano trade, 1-5 since C-Grand returned to the lineup, and 0-3 since A-Rod came back.  So much for upgrading the lineup.

Rotation Appreciation

(Buck up, guys.  Ya done good.  Courtesy of the AP)

You don't have to be a genius to know that the starting rotation has been really good this season.  They're currently 4th in AL in ERA (3.75), 3rd in FIP (3.75), and 3rd in total fWAR (6.7).  They've put up these numbers despite dealing with injuries to multiple rotation members before and during the season, CC Sabathia's transition away from being a power pitcher, and 2 starts on their ledger when the starter didn't even make it out of the 1st inning.  The collective performance of the rotation, even with the bad starts mixed in, is the main reason the Yankees are still 10+ games over .500 while mired in another brutal offensive slump, and it's time each guy just got some props for the job he's done.

Who's Going For A New Contract Here?

Brett Gardner's Last 10 Games: 14-34, 5 2B, 1 HR, 5 R, 7 RBI, 3 BB, 4 K

Robinson Cano's Last 10 Games: 4-33, 1 HR, 3 R, 4 RBI, 5 BB, 8 K

Real tough go for Robbie right now.  He's swinging a lot, missing a lot, and his batting average has fallen below Chris Stewart's.  No matter how much weight, if any, you put into batting average, that's not a good comparison.  At least he's matched Gardner in SB over the last 10 games (1 to 1).

Good work, Brett.  Keep it up.  The middle of the order will show up to help you eventually.  Maybe.

(Nice dome too, bro.  Courtesy of the AP)

Return Of Teix & Youkilis Bringing The Return Of Patience

(Welcome back, Mr. Teck-SHARE-uh.  Courtesy of Getty Images)

The Yankees are 4-2 since getting Mark Teixeira and Kevin Youkilis back in the lineup last Friday.  Had the weather cooperated, who knows if they had a comeback in them on Sunday.  That return came at the end of one of the worst stretches of offensive baseball we've seen from any Yankee team in some time, and not so coincidentally the presence of Teix and Youkilis has led to a return to form for a lineup that had become way too impatient.

Close Game Success Helping Drive Yanks' Strong Start

After all the hand wringing many of us did prior to the start of the season, the Yankees came out and surprised us with a 16-10 start in the month of April.  They've gotten good starting pitching, equally good work from their late-inning bullpen core, an MVP-caliber performance from Robbie Cano, and a tremendous team offensive effort driven by the overachievement of many of the new scrap heap pick-ups.  A big part of what has made all of this add up to the 16-10 start is the team's outstanding performance in close games.  After being a thorn in the side of writers and fans alike for what seems like every year since the World Series of '09, this year's team has really gotten the job done in that department.