Matt Thornton Getting Put On Notice

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

Hey, Matt.  You got a minute, bud?  I wanted to talk to you about something.  I know you're still the #1 lefty in the bullpen right now and the only one Joe would consider going to in a key lefty-lefty matchup situation.  And I know it may look like you're maintaining that "kinda-sorta pretty good/mostly unlucky" level you were at last month to the untrained eye, so you think you shouldn't have anything to worry about.  But here's a word to the wise.  Don't get too comfortable, brother.  Because the Yanks are making moves to find a replacement for you, whether you realize it or not.

BREAKING: Yanks Sign Lefty Reliever Matt Thornton

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

Well there's some unexpected bullpen help.  As first reported by Jack Curry, the Yankees have agreed to a 2-year/$7 million deal with lefty specialist Matt Thornton.  The deal is pending a physical of course, and should he pass it Thornton will replace Boone Logan as the team's primary LOOGY out of the 'pen in 2014.

Thornton, 37, was one of if not THE premiere lefty specialist in baseball as recently as 2011 with the White Sox.  He struggled for them early last year before being dealt to the Red Sox at the trade deadline and performing much better.  Overall he pitched to a 3.74/4.04/4.13 slash line in 43.1 IP in 2013 with a .280 wOBA against from left-handed hitters.  For his career lefties have hit .229/.296/.350 against him in 249.2 IP.

Thornton comes with a pretty fair amount of risk as an older reliever.  His K rate has decreased every year since 2010, from 33.9% then to just 16.0% this past season.  That's partially due to his increased ineffectiveness against righties, but as a LOOGY he should still be above-average and he comes at a much more team-friendly cost than Logan would have.  At the very least, it's an early-season upgrade over Cesar Cabral if Thornton can maintain his effectiveness against same-side hitters.

P.S.- For shits and giggles, here's my anti-Thornton rant from the 2011 offseason.  At that time it didn't make a lot of sense to trade away prospects for a guy with $12 million still owed to him.  Today, for just $7 mil and no prospects, it's a much better deal.

LOOGY Watch: Javier Lopez

The early bullpen talk has revolved around late-inning guys and potential closer options.  Yesterday we got our first strong LOOGY target when Andy McCullough reported that there is the always encouraging "mutual interest" between the Yankees and free agent lefty Javier Lopez.  While it's nothing certain, this is a strong indication that the team will not pursue bringing Boone Logan back.

Lopez, 36, is an absolutely devastating LOOGY, one of the best in baseball.  He held left-handed hitters to a measly .156/.208/.222 batting line (.197 wOBA) in 26.1 IP in 2013 and for his career lefties are hitting just .209/.294/.301 with a 21.4% K rate against him.  Similar to Clay Rapada a few years back, Lopez works from an awkward arm angle and features a fastball/slider combination that has its strength based in the delivery more than the velocity.

Lopez's agent said that Lopez wants to play for a contender and "wants the innings to be meaningful." He would have a great chance for both of those things assuming the top lefty role in the Yankee 'pen.  For now it sounds like the 2 sides are going to table talks until the Yankees address some of their other more pressing needs, but Lopez would definitely be a great fit on a 1-year deal.

Tuesday Mid-Morning Food For Thought

Boone Logan was not part of the group that received qualifying offers yesterday, nor should he have been.  On the strength of his time in New York, he's free to go get himself a fat new contract and in all likelihood that contract offer won't be coming from the Yankees.  His departure leaves a big void in the bullpen for the lefty specialist role next year, but some small September sample size success could be a clue as to who Logan's replacement will be.

(Courtesy of Texas Leaguers)

That's Cesar Cabral's pitch plot against lefties from his 8 September appearances this season.  In those 8 appearances, he faced 9 left-handed batters.  1 of them got a hit, 1 of them flew out, 1 of them was hit by a pitch (David Ortiz!!!), and 6 of them struck out.  Based on that pitch plot - fastballs on the corners of the strike zone and sliders that were thrown in the strike zone for called strikes and down and out of the zone for swinging strikes - it's reasonable to pencil Cabral in as the early favorite for the LOOGY job next year.  Small sample size or not, that's dominance.

We all know Joe loves to play the matchups when the situation calls for it and we know how much the Yankees like Cabral.  They kept him on their roster all last year when he was injured and all this year while he was rehabbing before giving him his September audition.  If he stays healthy, he could prove to be a cheap and valuable replacement bullpen piece in 2014.

#LOOGYProblems

Having one LOOGY out with injury problems is bad enough, but TWO??  That's just madness.  Unfortunately that madness is reality for the Yankees right now as their injury-plagued spring continues.  It was announced yesterday that Clay Rapada will be shut down for 7-10 days with shoulder bursitis, this after Boone Logan's elbow continued to bark.  That's now the top two lefty relievers in camp with problems to the two parts of the arm you never want to have problems with if you're a pitcher: the elbow and the shoulder.

Luckily, the Yankees aren't short on LOOGY options in camp.  Francisco Rondon has looked outstanding in his four appearances ( 6 IP, 0 R, 3 H, 2 BB, 6 K) and has looked capable of facing right-handed batters if needed, and Juan Cedeno hasn't looked bad in his three outings either.  Cesar Cabral is still on the radar, and needs to spend time on the roster per the Rule 5 Draft rules, but he won't be a real option until May.

Hopefully Rapada's issue isn't as serious as Logan's appears to be and he's able to make it back in time to start the season.  If not, maybe the Yanks put in a call to someone well-versed in the dark arts and try to summon Loone Bogan for a few weeks.

Don't Forget About Cesar Cabral

With almost every other pitcher still in the earliest phases of their Spring Training routines, Michael Pineda has dominated the headlines with the positive reviews he's gotten from his rehab work.  But there's another pitcher also on the comeback trail who's worth keeping an eye on, and that's lefty Cesar Cabral.  You might remember Cabral as one of last year's Rule 5 draft picks who came to camp and impressed the coaching staff.  He actually had a leg up on Clay Rapada for the 2nd LOOGY job, and probably would have won it were it not for the fractured elbow he suffered late in camp that caused him to miss all of 2012.

Via Chad Jennings, Cabral was also out on the mound yesterday and threw a 25-pitch session that drew positive feedback from Joe.  Like Pineda, Cabral won't be ready for the opening of the 2013 season, but his return should come much earlier as a reliever and could be a blessing if there are problems with Boone Logan.  George King reported yesterday that Logan had a wrap on his arm after throwing long toss and Larry Rothschild confirmed that the Yankees "are being cautious with him" this spring.  The first few days of ST are hardly the time to be cautious with a pitcher who isn't hurt, and this approach is a sign that there's concern about Logan's health after his heavy 2012 workload.  Cabral's presence not only gives the Yankees the opportunity to be cautious with Logan, but also to have another lefty option should Logan end up on the DL.

The Yankees could have very easily cut bait on Cabral last year after he missed the season, and it would have been perfectly understandable given his injury and the fact that they added more LOOGY depth to their system.  But they kept him around, brought him back to camp this year, and barring another injury will have him available should their bullpen require another lefty arm.

The Case For Trading Boone Logan

(Courtesy of Tim Farrell/The Star-Ledger)

The trade market continues to look like the best option for the Yankees to address their biggest areas of need this offseason.  With the bulk of this year's free agent class picked clean and the team already stretching its budget to add Kevin Youkilis and guarantee 2 years to Ichiro Suzuki, it's highly unlikely the Yankees will plunk down more guaranteed money to what are essentially scraps.  There have been multiple reports of the Yankees quietly shopping guys like Curtis Granderson, Phil Hughes, and Ivan Nova already this offseason, reports that as of yet have returned very little in the way of meaningful rumors.  But there are more trade options than just those names.  One name that has come up consistently around the Yankosphere is Boone Logan.  The oft-maligned lefty reliever had another solid season in 2012, and could generate interest on the trade market as something better than just your everyday LOOGY.  Teams are always looking for more bullpen help, and Logan would be an attractive option to clubs that need to bolster their left-handed relief pitching.

Joe Forgot The 1st Rule Of Using Clay Rapada Club

(This guy never forgets the rules.  Courtesy of Inside Out Night)

Well, OK, the second rule.  The first one is obviously "Do Not Talk About Using Clay Rapada Club."  But the second is far more important when it comes to the Yankees winning games, or at least staying close in games they're losing.  That rule, in case you've forgotten, is...

Rapada Vs. Cabral For The Final Bullpen Spot- Who Ya Got?

As the roster continues to be trimmed down, it's becoming more and more clear that the competition for the final roster spot is down to Clay Rapada and Cesar Cabral for the 7th and final spot in the bullpen.  Joe has acknowledged that this is the case and said he envisions using whichever guy is chosen as the true LOOGY and making Boone Logan a general middle reliever.  So that being the situation, who makes more sense for the Yankees to take?

Both Rapada and Cabral have pitched very well this spring, and their stat lines stack up very well:

- Rapada: 8.1 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 11 K in 9 appearances
- Cabral: 10.1 IP, 11 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 12 K in 9 appearances

Rapada has been more consistent over the course of the spring while Cabral has come on of late, allowing 0 runs, 3 hits, and striking out 9 over 5 IP in his last 4 appearances, including an impressive 2-inning, 6 K performance against Tampa a week ago.  Where the comparisons really start to drift apart is in the L/R splits.  Rapada has been murder on lefties this spring, allowing just 1 baserunner (on a BB) and striking out 8 in 4.2 IP against left-handed hitters, but has given up more hits and more walks against righties, living up to his extreme career L/R split.  Cabral has actually been better against right-handed hitting, blanking righties over 5.2 IP while giving up the majority of his hits and all his runs allowed against lefties.  The small sample size curse could be at work here, though, as 8 of Cabral's 12 strikeouts have come against left-handed hitters.

Ultimately the decision will come down to how much upside the Yankees think Cabral has.  At 23, he is considerably younger than Rapada and conceivably could be developed into a more effective and possibly complete relief pitcher.  Rapada would be viable as a LOOGY and LOOGY alone.  With the success each has had this spring, they are very likely to get a job elsewhere if they aren't chosen, Rapada because of his MiL deal and Cabral because of his Rule 5 draft pick status, so the Yankees are going to lose whichever guy they don't pick.  I was high on Rapada earlier in camp, but I'm leaning towards Cabral now because of his youth and better performance against righties.  Having that kind of flexibility in the 'pen with Cabral and Logan makes the entire bullpen that much deeper.