Prospect Stock Watch: June 2014

(Courtesy of Mark LoMoglio/MiLB.com)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

There's still a few days left in June, but everybody's level of success for the month has already been decided.  The midway point of the season has been reached, All Star Games have been played, and a lot of midseason moves have been made, both up and down the ladder.  While the success of the Yankee farm system as a whole continues to be up for debate and interpretation, there's no doubt who the biggest individual stars of this season have been.  Some names will be popping up on this report for the second time this year, the names that have now separated themselves as the head of the 2014 prospect class.  Here are the biggest prospect stock movers for June:

Prospect Stock Watch: May 2014

(The new second baseman of the future?  Courtesy of MiLB.com)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

Another month is almost in the books.  That means it's time to check the prospect ticker and see who's been making gains and who's been dropping with their performance this month.  Two months in and I still don't know how I feel about the farm system this year.  There's a lot of guys having better seasons than I expected, but there's also a lot of preseason top guys who aren't living up to expectations at all.  Here are the players who stood out to me for better and worse in May.

A/Another Chance For A Couple Of Fringe Guys

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

If there's a silver lining to be had in this recent bout of injury problems, one might say it's the opportunity for the Yankees to call up more of their young players and get a look at what they might have in them.  Nothing makes the "play the kids" decision easier than a lack of healthy bodies, and the Yankees are short more than a couple at the moment.  To deal with that, they've called up outfielder Zoilo Almonte and right-hander Chase Whitley from Triple-A SWB, 2 older, fringe prospects who've spent plenty of time at the highest levels of the farm system.  We're definitely going to see one of them in action tonight and we may not see the other one at all, but each has a chance to carve out a role for himself and possibly earn a more long-term roster spot.

Prospect Stock Watch: April 2014

(Courtesy of Mark LoMoglio/MiLB.com)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

It's been a tough start to the year for the farm system.  With a handful of top prospects missing the start of the season as they recovered from offseason health problems (Slade Heathcott, Greg Bird, Ty Hensley), the Yankees have watched more injuries strike down a significant portion of other recognizable names.  From Nik Turley and Jose Ramirez in Spring Training, to Tyler Austin last week, to the announcement of Jose Campos' season-ending TJS over the weekend, there's seemingly been a top guy going on the DL every few days.  That's created opportunities for other players to step up, but so far nobody has created a bigger name for himself than he already had.  With April 2 days away from ending and the sample sizes growing to an almost meaningful size, here are the guys who've helped and hurt their prospect stock the most in the first month.

The Minor League Team To Watch In 2014 Has Been Found

The Yankees have put the finishing touches on their Opening Day 25-man roster over the past few days, but they aren't the only team setting rosters with a couple of days remaining before the start of the season.  The roster pictures for each MiL affiliate are starting to come into focus and, courtesy of Josh Norris, it looks like Low-A Charleston is going to be the team to follow:

Charleston will have Judge, Avelino, Andujar, Torrens, Severino, Rookie Davis, Brady Lail and Tyler Wade
— Josh Norris (@jnorris427) March 29, 2014

In Aaron Judge, Abi Avelino, Miguel Andujar, Luis Torrens, and Luis Severino, the RiverDogs will open the season with 5 of the top 26 from the AB4AR Top 30 on their roster.  Davis, Lail, and Wade are also on the radar as guys with serious prospect potential, and once the season gets going there's a good chance we see Gosuke Katoh, Ian Clarkin, Jordan Cote, and maybe even Ty Hensley in Charleston at some point.

It's a lot of young, still tough to project talent, but all in all that's easily the most exciting group of prospects to watch this year.  The next wave, if you will.  It wouldn't shock me at all if half of next year's top 10 prospects came from this team.

Yanks Put 2 In Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects

For some reason I thought Baseball America had already released its Top 100 Prospects list for 2014, so shame on me for being wrong.  It was actually released this morning, and unlike most of the other major top 100 lists the Yankees were represented by more than 1 player on this one.  The first was Masahiro Tanaka, who BA ranked as the 4th best prospect in baseball, and the second was Gary Sanchez at 35.

Personally I don't consider Tanaka a true "prospect" because of the time he spent playing in the NPB, but that's just me.  If you do consider him one, then it's almost impossible to not rank him in the top 5.  Sanchez at 35 is a pleasant surprise since he was 57th on this list last year and didn't exactly light the world on fire in 2013.  As I've said before, it just speaks to how highly scouts think of his natural talent and potential ceiling.

The Complete 2013-2014 AB4AR Top 30

(Courtesy of the AP)

It's Sunday, which means it's the end of Prospect Week 2014.  I didn't get to quite as many tools rankings as I wanted to, but the most important part of the week, the 2013-2014 AB4AR Top 30, was covered in full.  As I mentioned earlier, this year's list had a high amount of turnover, almost half of last year's Top 30 was replaced by new guys.  On the one hand, that may say something about the Yankees' inability to develop the talent they draft.  On the other, it may mean a turnaround of that trend is on the horizon with a big influx of new, young talent.  If you missed any of this week's Top 30 portions, or if you just want to peruse through them again, here's your chance.  From 30-1, the entire 2013-2014 AB4AR Top 30:

2013-2014 AB4AR Top 30 Prospects: 10-1

(Courtesy of MiLB.com)

This is it, the top 10.  The cream that's risen to the top of the Yankee farm system.  For the first time in a few years, it feels like the organization's top prospects are actually close to breaking into the Majors.  There's high-level pitching, a lot of high-level hitting, and a smattering of lower-level guys with major upside to balance things out.  From seeing some of the mainstream top 10 lists that have already come out, I can tell you that mine's pretty different and there are more than a few names on the AB4AR list that didn't show up anywhere on the others.  I stand by my selections though, and truly believe that these are the 10 best players in the Yankee farm system right now.  If you missed either of the first 2 days, here's Part I here and Part II here.  After the jump, the third and final part of the 2013-2014 AB4AR Top 30.

2013-2014 AB4AR Top 30 Prospects: 20-11

(Courtesy of MiLB.com)

10 down, 20 to go.  Yesterday marked the first official installment of the 2013-2014 AB4AR Top 30 and it was a wide range of players.  From high-level guys who were relative unknowns just a year ago to low-level guys for whom the sky is the proverbial limit, there was a little bit of everything in the bottom third.  Today we move into the middle third of the rankings and as you'd expect everything is a little better in this group.  There's still a nice mix of new faces and holdovers from last year, but the new faces are ones that put up big numbers to earn their spot and, in some cases, did it at higher levels than rookie ball.  The familiar faces all experienced some kind of leveling out of their production in 2013, but not enough to totally wash away their prospect status.  After the jump, dive right in to the middle third of this year's Top 30.

2013-2014 AB4AR Top 30 Prospects: 30-21

(Courtesy of Bryan Green's Flickr page)

I'm pretty sure I've used some variation of this as the intro the last 2 times I've started officially releasing my prospect rankings, but screw it, I'm doing it again.  After all the games, all the injuries, all the research, all the ranking, re-ranking, and re-re-ranking, all the hints dropped, all the plugs at the end of old posts, all the Facebook reminders, and the last 2 days of lead-ins, we've finally come to this moment, the unveiling of the first third of the 2013-2014 AB4AR Top 30.  This first group has a lot of new faces and a few familiar ones.  It's got players still scratching the surface of their potential, players still struggling to reach their potential, and players whose potential could already be shrinking.  After the jump, spots 30-21 of this year's AB4AR Top 30.

2013-2014 AB4AR Top 30 Prospects: Just Missed The Cut

(Courtesy of MLB.com)

Yesterday I looked back at the baker's dozen from last year's AB4AR Top 30 who will not be a part of the 2013-2014 edition.  Now that we're done living in the past, today we can start to look towards the future with the 5 players who missed the cut for this year's Top 30.  For all the talk about how bad the Yankee farm system is right now, the one thing they do have is depth.  More than 1 of the guys who didn't make my top 30 cut are going to show up on other prospect lists around the Yankosphere and there are a couple who could become top 10-15 guys if they stay on track.  After the jump, the 5 players who just missed making the 2013-2014 AB4AR Top 30.

2013-2014 AB4AR Top 30 Prospects: Those We've Lost

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

I thought there was high turnover from the first Top 30 to last year's when 9 new players made the cut.  From last year to this year the turnover was even higher, 13 players to be exact.  That's almost half of last year's list gone and replaced by new faces.  That seemed high to me at first, but when I considered all the factors that led to the high turnover rate it's not as drastic as it seems.

There are a handful of players no longer eligible for this year's list because they're on other teams and there were multiple players who were no longer eligible due to Major League service time in 2013.  When you eliminate them, the number of guys who dropped off due to age and/or subpar production this year is reasonable.  When you consider the influx of young talent that joined the system this year in the form of 3 1st round picks and a healthy collection of young international players, the higher turnover becomes more than reasonable.  After the jump, the 13 players who, for a number of reasons, won't be appearing on the 2013-2014 Top 30.

Yanks Not Well Repped In Latest Top Prospect Lists

The big dogs of the baseball scouting world are releasing their annual top MLB prospects lists and so far it's been a disappointing showing for the Yankees.  On Friday, they landed 2 on MLB.com's Top 100 for 2014.  Gary Sanchez was ranked 47th after being 27th on the 2013 list, and Mason Williams was ranked 75th after being 37th the previous year.

Today it's Baseball Prospectus unveiling their Top 101 for 2014 and the Yankee representation is even slimmer.  Just 1, Sanchez, coming in 85th.  Regardless of how you feel about the Yankee system or prospects in general, that's not good.  It speaks both to the lack of top tier talent currently in the Yankee system and the generally "blah" year that most of their top guys had.  The good news?  They still have a bunch of players with top 100 upside.  Just need them to start playing like it.

Welcome To AB4AR Prospect Week 2014

(The original #1.  The Jesus)

In late December of 2011, I was home for Christmas and bored at my parents' house during the week so I decided to put together my first top Yankee prospects list.  The inaugural AB4AR Top 30 admittedly wasn't very good, but going through the process of doing it opened my eyes to the world of prospect evaluation and I think it made me much smarter about how I follow and rank prospects.

Which brings us to today, the start of AB4AR Prospect Week 2014 and the unveiling of the 3rd edition of the AB4AR Top 30.  If you followed Prospect Week last year, you know that the format has already been changed a little bit but the overall format for the next 5 days will stay the same.  Today I'll go back and look at all the players from last year's AB4AR Top 30 who didn't make the 2013-2014 edition, tomorrow I'll focus on the players who just missed the cut this year, and Wednesday through Friday will be the actual release of this year's Top 30 in 10-player chunks.

If you're not familiar with AB4AR or my prospect evaluation process, I invite you to read this post I did last year explaining my system.  Long story short, I tend to value consistent production and advancement through the system more than just raw tools and high ceiling.  I also think there's more value in a lower ceiling player at a higher level of the system than a "toolsy" 17 or 18-year-old in rookie ball, especially when that player plays a position of need for the Major League club.  To further familiarize yourself with the AB4AR system, feel free to check out last year's AB4AR Top 30 as well.

Time permitting this week, I'll try to work on some posts on player tools and who I think has the best in the system but the real focus is the 5 major posts mentioned above.  Check back this afternoon for the first one on the group of players who fell off this year's Top 30 and welcome again one and all to AB4AR Prospect Week.

Let's Talk About Some More Prospects

(Courtesy of Brad Penner/USA Today Sports)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA.  Reminder that AB4AR Prospect Week starts on Monday)

The Masahiro Tanaka signing storm has calmed down a bit, things are getting back to normal in Yankeeland, and we're exactly 3 weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting.  Obviously that means it's time to talk about prospects again.  The Yankee Minor League complex in Tampa is open and there are already a handful of top guys down there getting ready for the season, plus I'm releasing my yearly top 30 prospects list next week.  Timing couldn't be better.  Last time I rattled guys off the top of my head who I had already labeled.  This time it wasn't so easy.  Probably the most mental energy I'm going to exert today.

Yanks To Get Aggressive With 2013 1st Rounders?

(Courtesy of somebody)

This almost slipped through the cracks last week, but with AB4AR Prospect Week right around the corner I figured I had to swing back and address it.  VP of player ops Mark Newman spoke to the media last week on a wide range of prospect-related topics.  Most of it was updates on players' health and confirming whether or not guys would be ready to start the season, standard stuff.  The one interesting bit of news was related to the plan for 2013 1st rounders Eric Jagielo and Aaron Judge this season.  According to Newman, the Yankees could start both of them at High-A Tampa this year, and if not, there's a very good chance both at least start in Low-A Charleston.

The Young Guys Most Likely To Contribute In 2014

(Jose could be closer to the show than you think. Courtesy of the AP)

The time for the unveiling of the 2013-2014 AB4AR Top 30 draws nearer.  As part of the prelude to that and to AB4AR Prospect Week in general, I'd like to revisit a post topic from last offseason and take a look at some of the organization's top prospects who are serious candidates to make the jump and contribute at the Major League level in 2014.  The Yankees haven't gotten any younger in their free agent spending spree and don't appear to be making that a priority as they fill out the rest of their remaining roster holes.  We saw this past season how that approach with an old core worked out, and the constant barrage of injuries created many opportunities for upper-level MiLers to break into the lineup and attempt to carve out roles for themselves.

Last season's version of this post came in late December, so I'm a little behind schedule on this post in comparison.  I hit the nail on the head with my first 2 picks, then whiffed on the next 4 and missed out on guys like Adam Warren and Preston Claiborne.  After the jump, my picks for the prospects most likely to follow in the footsteps of Austin Romine and David Adams and work their way into Major League game action in 2014.

Winter League Wrap-Up

Not sure how much any of it really means in the grand scheme of things, but most of the Winter leagues have wrapped up or are in the process of wrapping up this week and the Yankees had their fair share of notable prospects participating.  Here's a quick look at how some of those notable names performed.

• Zoilo Almonte: .316/.343/.454 w/ 4 HR and 20 RBI in 43 Dominican League games
• Gary Sanchez: .267/.330/.367 w/ 1 2B and 2 RBI in 12 Domincan League games
• Ronnier Mustelier: .270/.386/.360 w/ 2 HR, 27 RBI, and 28 BB in 53 Mexican Pacific League games
• Adonis Garcia: .325/.347/.502 w/ 15 2B, 8 HR, and 39 RBI in 53 Venezuelan League games
• Jose Pirela: .335/.419/.510 w/ 25 XBH, 41 RBI, and 33 BB in 61 Venezuelan League games

I touched on Almonte the other day, but very good performances from Garcia and Pirela as well.  They're fringe prospects at best, but they could find their way onto the 40-man if injuries allow it and could be useful bench pieces down the road.  Disappointing lack of power from Musty.  Sadly it looks like the ship carrying his roster spot chance may have passed.

For a full recap of the Yankee Winter League participants, check out Axisa's post from yesterday afternoon.

Why Brett Marshall Got DFA'd

I have to say I was more than a little surprised when I saw that Brett Marshall was the 40-man roster casualty for Carlos Beltran yesterday.  He wasn't very good in Triple-A last year as a starter or in his handful of Major League relief appearances, but he's still just 23 years old with a good fastball and a plus changeup.  That seems like a commodity much more worthy of being held onto than a washed up 35-year-old outfielder who can't hit anymore.  But in looking at the projected starting rotations for the Yankees and the SWB RailRiders, it starts to make a little more sense.

Yankee Rotation: CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, Ivan Nova, Free Agent Pitcher X, Winner of the Pineda/Phelps/Warren/Nuno ST competition (probably Pineda or Phelps)

RailRider Rotation: Manny Banuelos, Vidal Nuno, Jose Ramirez, Nik Turley, Shane Greene

With guys below him in Double-A having better years and moving up and ManBan being healthy again, Marshall's Triple-A rotation spot wasn't the sure thing it was last year.  And with Phelps and Warren already more established as Major League swingmen, Marshall wasn't going to beat them out for a spot on the 25-man roster.  His poor 2013 made him expendable and the Yankees probably felt they had enough MiL depth in Triple-A to cover for injuries.

It sucks for him and hopefully Marshall clears waivers and stays in the organization, because I do think he can develop into a decent pitcher, but that's life for a low-ceiling prospect on a team with constant 40-man roster issues.

Let's Talk About Some Prospects

(Courtesy of the AP)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

I have a confession.  I'm bored.  I'm bored talking about mediocre second and third basemen and I'm bored waiting around for the Rakuten Golden Eagles president to just embrace the inevitable and agree to post Masahiro Tanaka.  I'm bored pondering which righty reliever the Yankees will overpay to "compete" with D-Rob for the closer role next year and I'm bored wondering how or if they are going to be able to move Ichiro.

Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus have both recently released their annual top 10 Yankee prospects lists, and both have their strengths and weaknesses.  That means prospect ranking season is right around the corner, if it isn't here all ready, so I'm saying the hell with the Major League issues this morning and going with the prospects.  I still have to put the finishing touches on my top 30 ranking for this season, but for the sake of conversation and debate here's a peek into my mindset.