Prospect Stock Watch: June 2014

(Courtesy of Mark LoMoglio/MiLB.com)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

There's still a few days left in June, but everybody's level of success for the month has already been decided.  The midway point of the season has been reached, All Star Games have been played, and a lot of midseason moves have been made, both up and down the ladder.  While the success of the Yankee farm system as a whole continues to be up for debate and interpretation, there's no doubt who the biggest individual stars of this season have been.  Some names will be popping up on this report for the second time this year, the names that have now separated themselves as the head of the 2014 prospect class.  Here are the biggest prospect stock movers for June:

Mid-Week Minor League News And Notes

There were a handful of stories and updates on some well-known Minor League guys yesterday.  Here they are in case you missed any of them:

- The bad news first.  According to Mark Newman, Slade Heathcott is set for another surgery on his knee and will miss the rest of this season.  Considering it was the same knee he had surgery on last year and he only played 9 games after returning from it, I think we can start to turn on the light on Heathcott's prospect status.  Too bad.

- Now the good.  Luis Severino and Peter O'Brien were selected to represent the Yankees in this year's Futures Game.  O'Brien is 3rd in all of baseball in HR this season.  Kudos to both.

- A paper thin Triple-A rotation will get a boost this weekend when Nik Turley returns from the DL.  He's been out since suffering an arm strain in March.

- Via Nick Peruffo, lefty starter Daniel Camarena was promoted from High-A Tampa to Double-A Trenton.  He pitched to a 2.72 ERA in Tampa and is only 21 years old.  I profiled him early last year as someone to watch.

Monday Afternoon Food For Thought: The Quad-A Replacement Brigade

From this morning, we know that the Yankees have a ton of guys hitting at well below-average rates this month.  From watching the season in its entirety, we know they've had plenty of guys struggling to produce since Opening Day.  There's been no indication that any new "shakeup" roster moves are coming as a means to jump start the offense, but there is a bounty of potentially interesting call-up candidates in Triple-A right now:

• Zelous Wheeler: .317/.369/.482 in 236 PA
• Kyle Roller: .280/.366/.476 in 164 PA
• Adonis Garcia: .312/.349/.460 in 232 PA
• Jose Pirela: .319/.358/.447 in 295 PA

And that's not including guys like Zoilo Almonte and Scott Sizemore who've already spent some time on the Major League roster, and Ramon Flores, who's on DL presently but was hitting .261/.352/.447 before getting hurt.  If he were healthy, there's a non-zero chance he'd be on the Yankee bench by now.

Among the 4 guys mentioned above, only 1 of them is young enough to be truly considered a "prospect" and that's Pirela at age 24.  The other 3 are classic Quad-A 'tweener types and none of the 4 are currently on the 40-man roster, which is surely a major determining factor in why the Yankees haven't made a move to call any of them up.  Another is expectations, which are tough to accurately set for players like this.  None of these guys is even close to a sure bet to replicate his current production at the Major League level or even match what underperforming 25-man guys like Alfonso Soriano or Brian Roberts are doing.  I suppose it couldn't hurt to give someone like Roller or Garcia a look, but at the same time they really haven't dominated Triple-A to the point where it's clearly worth it to cut bait on a more established, albeit mostly terrible, option.

I'll say this, I'm glad that's not my decision to make.  Classic "damned if you, damned if you don't" scenario.

Draft Signing Updates: Lindgren, DeCarr And Foley

The Yankees signed a group of lower round draft picks earlier this week.  Yesterday they locked up 3 of their higher picks when 2nd rounder Jacob Lindgren, 3rd rounder Austin DeCarr, and 5th round Jordan Foley all agreed to deals.

Lindgren, via his dad's Twitter, signed for exactly slot value of $1,078,700.  Not much of a surprise considering the pick and his profile as a college pitcher.  Foley also signed for exactly slot value at $317,500, according to Chris Cotillo.  DeCarr signed for an even million bucks, not quite double the slot value of his pick (585.1k), but a good enough chunk of change to get him to pass on his commitment to Clemson.

DeCarr was the biggest and only real no-sign risk from the Yankees' picks in the first 10 rounds, so the rest of the signings should just be a formality now.  No word yet on where DeCarr will be heading, although my guess would be SS Staten Island.  Both Lindgren and Foley are ticketed for Low-A Charleston to start their pro careers.  Have to think there's a very good chance that neither stick there long.

2014 Draft: Signing Updates (UPDATED)

With last weekend's draft in the rearview, the focus now shifts to player signings.  The Yankees had a handful of guys make it all but official yesterday and another 1 or 2 strongly indicate that they would be signing in the near future.  Here's the latest:

- All but official: RHP Matt Borens (11th round), 1B Bo Thompson (13th), RHP Sean Carley (14th), RHP Corey Holmes (20th).  Thompson will start at Low-A Charleston, Carley and Holmes with SS Staten Island.

- Strongly indicated: RHPs Jordan Foley (5th) and Jonathan Holder (6th).  There are reports and tweets from multiple sources that state both are expected to sign this week, including Holder tweeting a picture of himself wearing a Yankee hat.

- Austin DeCarr (3rd) was expected to report to Tampa to sign today, according to the NE Baseball Journal.  Slot money for his pick is $575,000 and the report says he'll sign for twice that amount.

- Jonathan Lindgren (2nd) is also reportedly on his way to Tampa to take his physical and make his signing official, and that will take place on Thursday.  No word on what he'll get.  Slot value is 1.0187 mil.

** UPDATE 4:47 PM- A few more updates that came out today: Jordan Montgomery (4th) has agreed to sign and is heading to Tampa.  He'll be going to SS Staten Island.  Damon Oppenheimer has confirmed that 10th round pick Ty McFarland has been signed.  No word on the amount. **

Minor League Injury Update

(Later, guy.  See you in 2016.  Maybe.  Courtesy of the AP)

I don't know what it is about the Yankee farm system that has it so susceptible to injuries, but the body count is already starting to rise this season.  A handful of big names have hit the DL this week and more than a handful of smaller ones are dealing with smaller physical issues of their own.  After the jump, a quick recap of all the new injuries in case you missed any of the news.

Thoughts On The Minor League Rosters

(Should be the starting Triple-A catcher.  Courtesy of Kim Klement/USA Today Sports)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

The Minor League season gets started tonight, and while I don't want to steal any of Tamar's team-by-team season preview thunder, I did want to comment on some of the roster decisions.  Each club officially released their Opening Day rosters yesterday, some more complete and correctly than others.  There are some surprising and not so surprising decisions at almost every level, which is pretty par for the course in the world of managing a wide range of prospects and non-prospects.  Here's my 2 cents on the early roster breakdowns for the 4 full-season MiL teams (click the team names for the full rosters).

Tuesday Afternoon Food For Thought: Oganizational Rotation Depth

Projected Triple-A Starting Rotation Before Spring Training: Manny Banuelos, Jose Ramirez, Nik Turley, Vidal Nuno, Shane Greene

Projected Triple-A Starting Rotation as of Today: Greene, Bruce Billings, Brian Gordon, Alfredo Aceves, Chris Leroux

As much as I loved Joe's decision to bring Nuno north as part of the Major League bullpen and still think it was the right move, I'd be remiss if I didn't touch on the somewhat alarming transformation the RailRider rotation has undergone in the past month.  Turley and Ramirez have been down and out with injuries since early in spring camp and Ramirez will be converted to a reliever when he's healthy again, ManBan will start the year in High-A Tampa to knock some of the rust off, and with Nuno in the Yankee 'pen there is suddenly very little organizational depth behind the Yankee starting 5.

Now ManBan will make it back to Triple-A eventually and hopefully Turley's arm tightness doesn't turn into an eventual elbow or shoulder surgery, but it's still a night and day difference between what was supposed to be and what is.  No offense to any of the non-Greene members of the current SWB rotation.  They're all pros and I'm sure they'll do a fine job filling in.  It's just hard to get excited about a group of 30-something journeymen in a Triple-A rotation when the alternative was 5 legit prospects.  If an injury or 2 does happen in the Major League rotation, I'd rather see a Nuno or a Turley or even ManBan subbing in for spot starts than Aceves or Billings.  At least there's something to get excited about if the prospects do well and it's easier to chalk it up to lack of experience if they don't.

The Minor League Team To Watch In 2014 Has Been Found

The Yankees have put the finishing touches on their Opening Day 25-man roster over the past few days, but they aren't the only team setting rosters with a couple of days remaining before the start of the season.  The roster pictures for each MiL affiliate are starting to come into focus and, courtesy of Josh Norris, it looks like Low-A Charleston is going to be the team to follow:

Charleston will have Judge, Avelino, Andujar, Torrens, Severino, Rookie Davis, Brady Lail and Tyler Wade
— Josh Norris (@jnorris427) March 29, 2014

In Aaron Judge, Abi Avelino, Miguel Andujar, Luis Torrens, and Luis Severino, the RiverDogs will open the season with 5 of the top 26 from the AB4AR Top 30 on their roster.  Davis, Lail, and Wade are also on the radar as guys with serious prospect potential, and once the season gets going there's a good chance we see Gosuke Katoh, Ian Clarkin, Jordan Cote, and maybe even Ty Hensley in Charleston at some point.

It's a lot of young, still tough to project talent, but all in all that's easily the most exciting group of prospects to watch this year.  The next wave, if you will.  It wouldn't shock me at all if half of next year's top 10 prospects came from this team.

Yankee Farm System Ranked 20th In Terms Of "Impact" By FanGraphs

I almost let this slip through the cracks, but Tony Blengino of FanGraphs went through an exercise last week ranking each MLB team's farm system in terms of impact.  Blengino defined "impact" as the number of players who "project as likely above average major league regulars," so it doesn't come as a shock that the Yankees ranked in the lower tier of this exercise.

The only true "impact" player that Blengino identifed was Gary Sanchez, although he did also tab Tyler Austin as a potential "non-impact MLB regular".  As was the case with most other organizational rankings this past offseason, the Yankees' strong group of lower-level prospects that could turn into "impact" players in the next few years kept them from falling further down the rankings.

Not the most clearly defined or statistically-supported method, but an interesting read nonetheless if you're looking for a different prospect evaluation method.

Early ST Injuries Could Be A Problem For MiL Teams

We're a week into the Spring Training game schedule and the best news so far is that there's nobody at the Major League level dealing with any injury issues.  Derek Jeter hasn't suffered any further/new setbacks with his ankle or the rest of his 2 legs, Brian Roberts has managed not to trip over anything and shatter his whole body, Cervelli's throwing hand and elbow are A-OK, and the entire pitching staff's elbows and shoulders are fine.

That's not to say that there haven't been any health problems though, and strangely enough it's the younger crowd that's feeling the effects of the injury bug.  A handful of early ST injuries have delayed the start to multiple top prospects' seasons, and depending on how quickly they're able to recover or how long the injuries linger, there could be some MiL roster problems come Opening Day.

Not A Prospect Yet (But Worth Watching): Thairo Estrada

(Courtesy of Baseball America)

We're now less than a calendar week from Prospect Week 2014.  To continue to whet your appetite and build anticipation towards what I'm sure will be the highlight of your 2014 (or at least your January 2014), it's time to take another look at a young player in the Yankee system who's just starting to scratch the surface of his prospect potential.

Changing it up a bit from the recent MLB draftees and going international today, back to the 2012 international free agent class when the Yankees flexed their monetary muscle for the final time before the new international spending pool limits were put into place.  Hidden beneath the higher-profile signings of that summer was a 16-year-old Venezuelan shortstop named Thairo Estrada.  He signed for relative chump and didn't draw a lot of interest or positive commentary from scouts, but his 2013 performance definitely turned a few heads.

Not A Prospect Yet (But Worth Watching): Dietrich Enns

(Courtesy of Tom Priddy/Four Seam Images)

We continue our slow build towards the start of AB4AR Prospect Week with another look at a young player starting to make some waves in the Yankee MiL system but not enough waves to warrant full prospect status in my eyes.  Today's player is Dietrich Enns, left-handed A-ball pitcher.  You might remember Enns from my profile post on him last June, and since that post there have been some developments in his development that make him one of the more intriguing fringe guys in the system.

Not A Prospect Yet (But Worth Watching): Jake Cave

(Courtesy of Tom Priddy/Four Seam Images)

I missed it by a day in terms of having it be a nice even 2 weeks out, but let this be the official announcement that AB4AR Prospect Week 2014 will be taking place 2 weeks from now starting on Monday, January 27th.  Obviously that week will consist of the unveiling of the 3rd annual AB4AR Top 30 Prospects list, along with a look at the guys who are off the list after last year's edition and the guys who just missed making this year's edition.

As the lead in to Prospect Week I'd like to revisit a post series that was actually part of Prospect Week 2013, profiling players who are making some waves in the Minor Leagues and working their way into legitimate prospect contention but aren't quite there yet.  You might remember last year's group of these players included Matt Tracy, Corey Black, Adonis Garcia, and Daniel Camarena.  The first of this year's crop is Jake Cave, a 2011 draft pick who just finished his first year of full-season ball.

Yanks Sign A Pair Of MiL Pitchers

It's not nearly as exciting as inking Tanaka, but the Yankees did sign a pair of pitchers to MiL contracts yesterday.  Via Matt Eddy, 28-year-old Bruce Billings and 38-year-old Yoshinori Tateyama both received deals, although it's not known if either received an invitation to ST.

Regardless of whether they did or not, neither of these guys should factor into the Major League plans at all in 2014.  They have a combined 68.0 Major League IP in their careers, none since 2012.  Billings has spent the last 3 years as an innings eater starter and spot reliever in the Oakland A's system and Tateyama was a long man for the SWB RailRiders last year, posting a 1.70/2.18 split in 42.0 IP.

These 2 should provide depth for the Triple-A pitching staff and allow the Yanks to call up younger pitchers like Mark Montgomery, Chase Whitley, and Dellin Betances if and when they're services are needed.  You can never have too much pitching, and that rule still applies when it comes to MiL depth.

Winter League Wrap-Up

Not sure how much any of it really means in the grand scheme of things, but most of the Winter leagues have wrapped up or are in the process of wrapping up this week and the Yankees had their fair share of notable prospects participating.  Here's a quick look at how some of those notable names performed.

• Zoilo Almonte: .316/.343/.454 w/ 4 HR and 20 RBI in 43 Dominican League games
• Gary Sanchez: .267/.330/.367 w/ 1 2B and 2 RBI in 12 Domincan League games
• Ronnier Mustelier: .270/.386/.360 w/ 2 HR, 27 RBI, and 28 BB in 53 Mexican Pacific League games
• Adonis Garcia: .325/.347/.502 w/ 15 2B, 8 HR, and 39 RBI in 53 Venezuelan League games
• Jose Pirela: .335/.419/.510 w/ 25 XBH, 41 RBI, and 33 BB in 61 Venezuelan League games

I touched on Almonte the other day, but very good performances from Garcia and Pirela as well.  They're fringe prospects at best, but they could find their way onto the 40-man if injuries allow it and could be useful bench pieces down the road.  Disappointing lack of power from Musty.  Sadly it looks like the ship carrying his roster spot chance may have passed.

For a full recap of the Yankee Winter League participants, check out Axisa's post from yesterday afternoon.

Quick Hit: Double-A Trenton Gets Raided In The Rule 5 Draft

The Yankees weren't expected to make any selections in this morning's Rule 5 draft.  With a full 40-man roster and Carlos Beltran still waiting to be added, there was no wiggle room to snag anybody.  They were expecting to lose a few of their unprotected players, however, and the rest of MLB did not disappoint there.

In all, 5 Yankee MiLers were selected this morning, 4 of them from the Double-A Trenton Thunder.  Right-handed relief pitchers Tommy Kahnle and Felipe Gonzalez, righty starter Mike O'Brien, and outfielder Ravel Santana were the Double-A casualties, along with righty reliever Kelvin Castro from High-A Tampa.

Kahnle and Santana are the biggest losses.  Both have previously been on a few top prospects list and Kahnle was the type of high-velocity bullpen arm the Yanks have become adept at drafting and developing.  Santana was a toolsy OF prospect with a potentially high ceiling a few years ago, but has had his development severely compromised by a David Adams-esque ankle injury.  It's doubtful he sticks on the Houston roster all season, but props to them for taking a low-risk shot.

The good news?  Guys like Chase Whitley, Dan Burawa, Fred Lewis, and Zach Nuding escaped and will remain with the organization.

Yanks Looking To Build Bullpen Depth With MiL Signings

They're not at all sexy, certainly not sexy enough to make major headlines during Winter Meetings week, but the Yankees are working on fortifying their bullpen depth with a few small Minor League deals.

It started early last week when Ken Davidoff reported that the team had signed righty Brian Gordon to a MiL deal, one that presumably includes an invitation to Spring Training.  If that name sounds familiar it's because Gordon was the man from nowhere who came up and pitched a few spot starts for the team in 2011.  He spent last year in the bullpen for Oakland's Triple-A affiliate and did a pretty good job.

There are also reports that the team is trying to re-sign Matt Daley, one of the recent 40-man casualties, to a MiL deal for next season.  Daley pitched well in limited September work for the big league club and was very good in 53+ MiL innings pitched in 2013.  Like Gordon, he would probably get an invite to ST to compete for a spot in next year's 'pen, although I imagine the Yanks look at both of these guys as Triple-A insurance depth more than realistic Major League options.

Yankees Continue To Stockpile Middle Infield Depth

I highly doubt he's a serious candidate to replace Robbie Cano or Jeter up the middle, but the Yankees added another warm body to their growing collection of middle infielders yesterday with a MiL signing.

Via Joel Sherman, the Yanks signed 26-year-old utility guy Yamaico Navarro to a Minor League deal with an invite to Spring Training.  Navarro is a righty bat with experience at second, short, and third base.  He's another all-field/no-hit kind of player, with a .206/.258/.267 career tripleslash and a 26.1% K rate in 199 Major League plate appearances.  It's worth noting that he did hit .267/.354/.418 for the Orioles' Triple-A affiliate this past season.

I'll say this.  If the Yankees aren't planning on cutting Nix and/or Nunez soon, they should at least look into the possibility of setting up some kind of reality show to follow all these middle infielders around during ST.  Call it "Up The Middle: The Battle for the 4th Spot on the Infield Depth Chart" and put it on YES after Francesa during February and March.  I'd definitely watch that.

2013 AZFL Wrap-Up

The 2013 Arizona Fall League season has wrapped up and it wasn't a very exciting one for the corps of Yankee representatives.  Here's how they all ended up statistically:

- Tyler Austin: .333/.438/.500 in 12 AB
- Mason Williams: .267/.330/.337 in 86 AB
- Peter O'Brien: .190/.212/.413 in 63 AB
- Addison Maruszak: .281/.452/.344 in 32 AB

Rough go for O'Brien, who struck out 26 times in his 63 at-bats.  He did lead the team with 4 HR and 13 RBI though, so the power continues to show through.  Also a disappointing performance for Mason Williams, who continues to show little power and not really enough average or OBP to make up for it.

- Vidal Nuno: 5 G, 3.20 ERA, 18 K/3 BB in 19.2 IP
- Brett Gerritse: 9 G, 9.26 ERA, 12 K/11 BB in 11.2 IP
- Fred Lewis: 11 G, 0.00 ERA, 10 K/5 BB in 11.0 IP
- James Pazos: 10 G, 1.74 ERA, 9 K/7 BB in 10.1 IP

Real strong finish for Nuno after a poor first 2 starts.  His plus command continues to be noteworthy.  Not a bad showing for Lewis either.  He's still way down on the food chain when it comes to Major League lefty bullpen options, but working 11 scoreless innings in a hitters league is not too shabby.