AB4AR 2014 Season Preview: The Predictions

When I said the 3 weeks of season preview posts were over yesterday, I wasn't being 100% honest.  There's still the matter of making my 2014 predictions, an annual rite of passage I've passed with flying colors each of the last 2 seasons.  If you've already read the staff predictions post over at IIATMS/TYA, then you already know what my picks are.  Only thing that's changing here are the additions of the full AL East predictions and expanded postseason predictions.

Without further ado, here they are...

Opening Day Roster Prediction

There are 5 days left until Opening Day, fewer ST games than that.  There's not much left to guess about at this point, so it's as good a time as any to make my official Opening Day 25-man roster prediction.  Without further ado, here's what I'm expecting to see:

Starting Lineup: Brian McCann, Mark Teixeira, Brian Roberts, Derek Jeter, Kelly Johnson, Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Beltran, Alfonso Soriano

Starting Rotation: CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, Ivan Nova, Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda

Bullpen: David Robertson, Shawn Kelley, Matt Thornton, David Phelps, Adam Warren, Dellin Betances, Matt Daley

Bench: Francisco Cervelli, Eduardo Nunez, Dean Anna, Ichiro Suzuki

Over/Under: 2014 Statistical Predictions

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

I've got a pretty bad cold going right now, so I wanted to keep this as simple as possible.  There are a lot of high expectations for new players this year and just as many uncertain expectations for some of the holdovers.  I want to set an over/under line for some of the more important players on the roster to gauge what kind of seasons people are expecting from them.  Let's get into it.

CC Sabathia- Over/Under 4.00 ERA

The big fella came in at 4.78 last year, a full run over his career ERA coming into the season.  It wasn't only the first time he'd posted an ERA over 4.00 since 2005, it was the first time he'd posted an ERA over 3.50 since 2005.  The hope was that another season removed from elbow surgery would get CC back on the right track, but so far his early ST results have left some to start wringing their hands over his velocity.  I'm going to be optimistic here and take the under, just barely.  Something like 3.97.

Saturday Evening Food For Thought: Current Opening Day Starting Lineup

1) Jacoby Ellsbury- CF
2) Derek Jeter- SS
3) Carlos Beltran- RF
4) Mark Teixeira- 1B
5) Brian McCann- C
6) Alfonso Soriano- DH
7) Kelly Johnson- 3B
8) Brian Roberts- 2B
9) Brett Gardner- LF

If Opening Day was tomorrow, that's the lineup I'd write down if I were Joe.  Is it perfect?  No.  It still needs some right-handed pop, preferably at third base so that Johnson can be moved to the bench, but it's not horrible.  I've seen a lot of talk about Ellsbury and Gardner at the top but I don't see that happening.  In the same way I don't see Jeter getting taking out of the shortstop position, I don't see him getting moved out of the top of the order until he proves he can't hit anymore.  Same concept with Teix.  He may not be capable of being an effective cleanup hitter anymore, but that's where he's hit a lot since joining the Yankees and I think Joe is going to show him some loyalty before bumping him down to 5 or 6 behind McCann.

There is speed, there is balance thanks to the multiple switch hitters, and it is a better Opening Day lineup than 2013's was.  If the Tanaka posting pushes the Yankees over the LT threshold, it should get a little more help before spring camp starts.

MLBTR Predicting A Big Free Agent Haul For The Yanks

MLB Trade Rumors released their annual top 50 prospects list with predictions on where each player will sign on Monday, and if you were looking for the Yankees to be aggressive and spend big this offseason you'll be pleased with the predictions.

According to Tim Dierkes, when the offseason dust settles the Yankees will have signed Robinson Cano, Hiroki Kuroda, Ervin Santana, Carlos Beltran, Grant Balfour, and A.J. Pierzynski.  That haul wouldn't be quite as flashy as the rumored $300 mil spending spree to bring in Tanaka and McCann, but it would help the team in a lot of key areas.

Cano I'd obviously be happy about, same with Hirok, Beltran for the right price, and Balfour.  Santana and Pierzynski are the wild cards here, as neither has generated any buzz relative to the Yankees' reported offseason plans.  Santana had a nice bounce back year in KC in 2013, but he's been so hot and cold his whole career and his high HR rate wouldn't translate well to pitching in The Stadium.  Pierzynski, while an upgrade at catcher, is well on the downside of his career at age 37 and might not be worth the trouble that his reputation brings.  Still, it would be hard to be disappointed if the Yankees ended up bringing in all these guys.

2013 AB4AR Season Review: The Predictions

(Still my favorite image of the season)

Well we made it.  We've come to the end of the 3-week season review extravaganza, and I don't know about you readers but I've been exhausted by it and I'm glad it's over.  We finish it off, as always, with a review of my preseason predictions and some honest self-reflection about my skills as a baseball prognosticator.  Admittedly, my track record in making season predictions is not a sparkling one.  2011 was a tough year, 2012 even tougher.  I honestly didn't even go back and recap my 2013 predictions post before I started writing this and there's no way I could remember them all off the top of my head, so this should be interesting.  Here we go...

Trade Deadline Prep Week: The Predictions

(Will the original "Yankee 5th Starter Competition Pageant" winner still be in pinstripes at year's end?) 

Guess that Chase Headley thing was never going to work out, huh?  Good thing I didn't expect it to, although I did tip my hand a little with a couple of my pipe dream guys.  If the Yanks added Lucroy and Stanton at the deadline, I think I'd take a day off of work to celebrate.  I also don't expect that to happen, but I do have some ideas about what I do and don't think will happen before the July 31st deadline.  The Yankees can't sit and be inactive, that's the only thing they can't do.  Whether they are buyers, sellers, or both, they need to do something.  Before the deadline passes and the dust settles, here's what I think they'll do.

2013 AB4AR Season Preview: The Predictions

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

It's all done.  The projections, the previews, the analysis, and the hypothesizing.  The Yankees have made the moves they've made and players have suffered the injuries they've suffered.  After this weekend, that all takes a backseat to the start of the regular season and the return of Yankee baseball to our everyday lives.  The only thing left to do before then is take all that's been discussed and analyzed these past five plus months and use it to make predictions.

This season is easily the most difficult one to predict from a Yankee fan's/blogger's perspective.  The team has taken a big step back on paper, and despite the nearly $220 million payroll their battle will be the most uphill one in years.  Between their collective step back and the collective step forward that the rest of the AL East has taken in the past two seasons, it seems the time is perfect for the Yankees to give up their throne at the top of the division.  Do I believe they will?  Yes, I do.  Do I believe they will completely fall apart and drop down to the bottom of the division?  Find out for yourself.

After the jump, the official AB4AR 2013 MLB predictions.

Opening Day 25-Man Roster Prediction

I've done some predictions for roster spot contenders, but nothing on the actual 25-man roster yet.  Good thing too because all of them would have been rendered meaningless after the injuries to C-Grand and Teix.  But with it being just two weeks from Opening Day and the ST roster getting cut down more and more every couple days, the outline of the real roster spot contenders is starting to become more clear.  We know who's not going to be ready (C-Grand, Teix, A-Rod), we know who is after this week of in-game appearances from Jeter, Mo, Andy, and CC, and there's one guy who's still not a guarantee one way or the other in Phil Hughes.  That's enough for me to make a pretty good educated guess, so here's the first attempt at predicting the 25-man roster we'll see on Opening Day.

Triple-R Game 2013: Rebound

(If you don't like that picture, something is wrong with you.  Courtesy of Corey Sipkin/NY Daily News)

We weeded out the regressors on Wednesday, we identified the guys expected to remain where they are yesterday, so today it's time to look at the players who are going to rebound from their 2012 seasons and offer up improved production in 2013.  Obviously some guys coming back from injury factor in heavily here, as do players whose 2012 results were way down from their usual standards.  But there are also a few surprises included, a few guys who I just have a good feeling about.  After the jump, check out the players I'm predicting rebound years for this season.

Triple-R Game 2013: Remain

(Can't knock the hustle.  Courtesy of Barton Silverman/NY Times)

It took a major backseat to the Mark Teixeira injury news, but I kicked off the 2013 edition of the Triple-R Game yesterday with my projected regressors and I have to say I was a little surprised that I didn't have more guys pegged for that category.  As negative as a lot of the talk has been about where this team stands after its offseason, and justifiably so, there aren't many players I see taking a big step back this year.  I don't know if that's a good thing or a bad thing, but it stages a more positive stage for the other two R categories.  Today we'll take a look at the less exciting of the two, the group of players I expect to repeat their 2012 performances.

Triple-R Game 2013: Regression

(Sorry, Kuroda fans.  Don't expect a repeat of 2012.  Courtesy of Getty Images)

Last year I introduced a simple, mainly space-filling post series during the offseason doldrums of January as a way to start laying the groundwork for season preview posts and setting my own personal expectations for the season.  If you remember it from last year, I called it the "Triple-R Game," the three R's standing for regress, remain, and rebound, and the whole point was to go through the projected 25-man roster and predict whether each played was due to regress from his previous season production, rebound from it, or remain at the same level.  I was admittedly inconsistent with my predictions at best.  I completely botched the infield, pretty much nailed the outfield, and was about 50/50 with the entire pitching staff.

The 2013 edition of the Triple-R Game is starting up later than it did last year, but with the shiny new toy syndrome of Spring Training wearing off, most of the top prospects getting reassigned to MiL camp, and season preview time not too far away, it seems like the perfect time.  I figured it was easier to split the groups up by expected "R" outcome rather than position this year, so we'll start off with the regressors.

Yanks-O's ALDS Preview: The Prediction

(Used courtesy of The Baltimore Sun)

The rosters are set, the comparisons and contrasts have been made, the advantages, on paper at least, have been analyzed, and the lineup cards for tonight are in the process of being filled out.  The only thing left to do from a blogger standpoint is put my fictional internet money on the line and make a pick.

Truth be told, it didn't take a lot of time to come to this conclusion.  I've felt the Yankees are the better team all along and I still think it's a matter of time until the rabbit's foot Baltimore has been carrying around in its back pocket all season falls out.  And if you're wondering why I haven't said boo about the 2-3 setup for this series that starts the Yankees out on the road despite having a better record than Baltimore and winning the division over them, there's an answer for that too.  I don't think it's going to matter much after tonight because I believe CC Sabathia is going to come out firing tonight.  I think the extra rest his 2 DL stints gave him is going to do him a world of good this postseason, and I think he comes out tonight and dominates to win Game 1 and set the stage for the rest of the series.

Robbie Cano Going For 2 In A Row Tonight

(Squared that one up.  Pure sex.  Used courtesy of Brad Mangin)

Yeah, I rhymed that on purpose.  I'm that good.

If y'all remember way back to last July 11th, you may recall a little post where I correctly predicted that Robinson Cano was going to win the HR Derby.  You might also remember that I was very humble in my post-Cano victory post later that night.  Or you might not remember either of those, but just remember the stunning visuals that accompanied the prediction post.  In any case, Cano is back in the derby tonight, this year as the AL captain, and I'll be damned if I'm not going to step up and defend my HR Derby prediction title for 2012.  What better way to do that than by sticking with my homer instincts and going with Robbie Cano again.

It's a bit of a risky pick, I know.  In 129 career PA in Kauffman Stadium, Cano has a .322/.375/.452 line with just 3 HR.  It's not exactly a place that Robbie owns from a power standpoint.  But then again, there aren't many parks out there that he does.  His hitting approach in real games is different than in a HR Derby, and Cano showed last year that he's got the type of smart derby approach and smooth relaxed swing that won't tire him out to be a major threat.  Add in his ace-in-the-hole pitcher in his old man again, and there's no reason why Cano shouldn't be the favorite tonight and shouldn't repeat last year's victory.

So there you have it.  Robinson Cano and his "Oh so smoove" swing are winning the whole damn thing again this year.  Book it.  Robinson Cano FTW.  And just to tie this all together, it probably wouldn't hurt to have Kate Upton appear somewhere in here.

2012 AB4AR Season Preview: The Predictions

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

Well, we've reached the end of AB4AR Season Preview Week, which can mean only one thing...

IT'S YANKEES OPENING DAY, YEEEEEEAAAAAAAHHHH!!!!!

I've previewed everything I can preview, and from those previews I feel really good about this year's team.  The lineup is stacked, the rotation is deep, the bullpen is tough, and the bench is serviceable.  As long as Joe keeps his nose out of the bullpen binder and doesn't put the bunt on in situations that don't call for it, this should be a very good year for the Yankees.  There's nothing more to analyze, so the only left to do is get on with the predictions, starting with the AL East.  Because I have horrible math skills and don't feel like putting the effort in on a holiday, this is the only division for which I'm predicting records.

AL East

1) Yankees: 97-65
2) Rays: 90-72 (2nd WC)
3) Fraud Sawx: 88-74
4) Blue Jays: 85-77
5) Orioles: 66-96

Check out the rest of the AB4AR 2012 predictions after the jump