Monday Mid-Morning Food For Thought: Who Is The Real Preston Claiborne?

Preston Claiborne's first 2 months as a Major Leaguer in 2013:

24.2 IP, 19 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 20 K

Preston Claiborne's last 2 months of the season in 2013:

15.1 IP, 23 H, 15 ER, 7 BB, 14 K

If you've got your calculators handy, that's a 1.46 ERA/3.12 FIP split from May and June compared to an 8.80/6.98 split in August and September.  Claiborne was due to regress after his unsustainably hot start last year, and regress he did, but I don't think anybody anticipated his finish to the season being as disastrous as it was.  He's the de facto "7th Inning Guy" right now and the question is what type of pitcher will he be in that role?  While a repeat of either one of those extremes is unlikely, where his 2014 performance falls in the middle of them is a big unknown.  Something shaded closer to the bad side of the extreme might not be good enough for a regular middle relief role.

What's Ichiro Going To Do This Year?

(Courtesy of the AP)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

I don't mean in terms of production.  That I can already anticipate.  Every projection system out there has Ichiro Suzuki pegged as a below-average hitter again this year, hardly a shock when you consider his .281 wOBA last year and the age at which he'll play this season (40).  The title of the post is more in reference to how Joe plans on using Ichiro this season and how much he plans on using him.

Don't Forget About Teix

(Thug life.  Courtesy of Corey Sipkin/NY Daily News)

While the bulk of the early offseason talk has been about the Yankees upgrading offensively in the outfield and behind the plate, it's worth revisiting the huge hit in production the team took at first base last year because of the wrist injury to Mark Teixeira.  Teix played in 15 games this year, 2 fewer than Derek Jeter, and with his .151/.270/.340 slash line and 3 HR/12 RBI included, the Yankees managed only a .229/.292/.397 tripleslash with 22 HR and 83 RBI from the first base position in 2013.  Their 58 total R scored from first were tied for last in MLB.

The bulk of that paltry production came from Lyle Overbay, Teix's temporary replacement who was in over his head once he became the full-time guy.  Overbay isn't expected back in 2014 with the return of Teix on the horizon, but somewhat surprisingly Cash shot down any rumors that the Yankees were looking for insurance at first for next season.  Via Dan Martin of The Post, Cash had this to say when asked about the current first base situation:

“I’m looking for a lot of things, but a first baseman isn't one of them.  I saw Mark recently and he said he was doing well and seems to be recovering nicely. So there’s no reason to think he can’t be a regular first baseman next season.”

Given the time he's spent resting and rehabbing after surgery, Cash is probably right when he says there's no reason to think Teix can't be the everyday first baseman next year.  What he can offer at the plate as the everyday first baseman, however, is up for debate and will go a long way in determining just how potent the Yankee lineup can be.

Let's Talk About Mark Teixeira

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

There are headlines aplenty going around the Yankee infield right now.  When you've got $50-60 million worth of players whose statuses for next year are all in some sort of doubt, that'll happen.  The one name that is absent from the conversation is that of Mark Teixeira, and that's probably just fine with him.  Never one to draw a lot of media attention with what he does on or off the field, Teix has slid almost into Kevin Youkilis "don't even both talking about him" territory after having season-ending wrist surgery in early July.  Considering his importance to next year's team, it's probably time to dust him off and get him back in the offseason discussion.

CC Already On The Road To Reinvention

While he won't make another start this season, and it's still unknown how his hamstring injury will impact his offseason training/throwing schedule, CC Sabathia has already started working on his mechanics and approach in preparation for what everybody hopes will be a bounce back 2014.

Sabathia spoke to the media at length on Tuesday about his struggles this season, what he needs to work on to be better next year, and what he's already started working on to make that transition from power pitcher to pitcher.  There were references to changes in delivery and mechanics, bullpen work between starts in the past few weeks, and most interestingly, Sabathia saying he's started watching video of opposing hitters.  It's not something he's ever done before this season, and Sabathia acknowledged the need to start doing it as part of his pregame preparation, saying:

“I feel like at certain times, I kind of fell in the same pattern, pitching the same way.  Hitters watch video and they know what to expect out of me, so it’s only right for me to do the same thing.  I've always been a guy that never watched video and that’s something that I need to change. My preparation for games probably needs to get a little better in that way."

I was a bit surprised to read that CC has never watched video before.  I figured in today's modern age of analysis that would be at least a small part of every pitcher's prep routine.  If it's something he thinks is going to help next year and he's already started doing it, then good for him for manning up and not being stubborn about changing.  It's what older pitchers have to do to survive, and CC recognizes that he's an older pitcher now.  If he's already begun the transformation of his game, that's reason to be encouraged about a turnaround next season.

On Derek Jeter's 2014 And The Future At Shortstop

(Courtesy of the AP)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

Derek Jeter's battle to return to the playing field for more than a few days raged on yesterday.  The Captain resumed baseball activities - a little "tee and toss" hitting according to Joe - after playing catch over the weekend.  The activities are obviously a little light.  With no real hitting or running involved, it's not like Jeter is close to returning.  The plan is to send him to Tampa to continue his rehab work when the team hits the road on Friday, and as of right now there are no plans to activate Jeter when the team returns, even though he's eligible to come off the DL this Sunday.

At this point, Jeter has spent more time this year doing baseball activities than he has playing actual baseball.  The rushed rehabs and resulting leg issues have reduced Jeter to just 5 games in 2013.  5 games, 21 measly plate appearances, a season's worth of frustration for both Jeter and the Yankee fans, and a whole lot of questions about what next season could be like.  This season is already a wash, whether Jeter makes it back and stays healthy to the end or not.  For Jeter and the Yanks, it's next season that's now the concern.

Hafner Might Be Cooked

• .318/.438/.667, 9.9% BB rate, 13.9% K rate
• .179/.286/.299, 13.0% BB rate, 31.2% K rate
• .174/.230/.348, 6.8% BB rate, 25.7% K rate
• .171/.275/.229, 10.0% BB rate, 27.5% K rate

Those are Travis Hafner's monthly splits for this season, starting with April at the top and ending with his present production in the first half of July.  They are not encouraging.  His physical size and reputation are still enough for pitchers to tip toe around him when there are runners on base, but if they throw good stuff close to the plate there's not much Pronk can do with it.  In the season's first month he was worth 1.0 fWAR.  He's registered as a negative WAR player in each of the last 3 and now sits at just a .316 wOBA and -0.1 fWAR for the year.

Pronk was out of the lineup last night after fouling a ball off his foot and if the Yankees want to try to get anything out of him in the next 2 and a half months they might want to consider keeping him out through the ASB.  He has very little speed in his swing and very little pop in his bat when he does make contact.  He was a huge injury risk when the Yankees first signed him.  Now it appears like too much playing time has sapped him of his strengths as a hitter.

Oh, Vern...

(Courtesy of Texas Leaguers)

Look at that.  Just look.  That's absolutely terrible.  It's brutally damning.  Vernon Wells is done.  D-U-N.  He only hit 1 ball to the warning track last month in 77 plate appearances and didn't even come close to doing it again.  He hit .133/.143/.177 last month, with just 1 walk and 17 strikeouts.  I think I could go up to the plate 77 times, just stand there with the bat on my shoulder, and probably generate a higher OPS than that in a month.  Totally kidding but not really.

Looking at the pitch result breakdowns, it's not easy to see why Wells has fallen off the productivity cliff.  If you throw him an offspeed pitch, he's going to swing and miss it.  You throw him any kind of fastball, he isn't going to get around on it fast enough to generate any kind of solid contact, forget about power.  It's not surprising that he got bested by that pitching machine a little while back.  He just doesn't have anything left.

Triple-R Game 2013: Regression

(Sorry, Kuroda fans.  Don't expect a repeat of 2012.  Courtesy of Getty Images)

Last year I introduced a simple, mainly space-filling post series during the offseason doldrums of January as a way to start laying the groundwork for season preview posts and setting my own personal expectations for the season.  If you remember it from last year, I called it the "Triple-R Game," the three R's standing for regress, remain, and rebound, and the whole point was to go through the projected 25-man roster and predict whether each played was due to regress from his previous season production, rebound from it, or remain at the same level.  I was admittedly inconsistent with my predictions at best.  I completely botched the infield, pretty much nailed the outfield, and was about 50/50 with the entire pitching staff.

The 2013 edition of the Triple-R Game is starting up later than it did last year, but with the shiny new toy syndrome of Spring Training wearing off, most of the top prospects getting reassigned to MiL camp, and season preview time not too far away, it seems like the perfect time.  I figured it was easier to split the groups up by expected "R" outcome rather than position this year, so we'll start off with the regressors.

Teix Now Front And Center On The "Needs To Produce" Radar

(More swings like this, please.  Courtesy of Getty Images)

2013 was already going to be an important year for Mark Teixeira.  After a stellar Yankee debut season in 2009, the last three have been a downhill trend of offensive regression and 2013 was shaping up to be the tipping point for the rest of Teix's Yankee career.  He could either bounce back and prove that he still had enough in the tank to be a consistent middle-of-the-order threat, or continue his decline, officially enter the downside of his career, and become the latest contract anchor on the payroll.

Teix's comments to Dan Barbarisi a few weeks ago showed that he was very aware that he had reached this stage in his career, and his candor and openness about his regression was refreshing to read in a modern sports world full of excuses and cliches.  But that position became much less acceptable when A-Rod had his surgery and even more unacceptable when Curtis Granderson was shelved over the weekend.  Teix is now more important than ever to the lineup and the Yankees' chances for success this season, a point Mike Axisa touched on earlier in the week.  After spending four years flying under the radar in the Bronx, the spotlight is going to shine brighter on Teix than it ever has, and he needs to step up and meet the challenge.

Moving A-Rod To DH Full Time And How To Make It Happen

(Thinking about the good old days, perhaps.  Courtesy of US Presswire)

When going through my L/R batting order exercise for next season yesterday, you may have noticed that I had both Alex Rodriguez and Kevin Youkilis listed as "3B/DH."  I'm sure most people weren't surprised by that, as both players have struggled mightily with injuries as they've moved into their mid-30s, and more and more the DH spot is becoming a safe haven for them to lessen the wear and tear on their bodies and keep themselves healthy and on the field as much as possible.  Youkilis is going to get the lion's share of ABs at the hot corner to start the season with A-Rod on the DL, but when Rodriguez comes back Joe is going to have to work out a system to give each of them a day or days at DH and possibly a full day off per week to keep them healthy and allow them to produce as much as their remaining skill sets will allow them to.

As far as Youkilis is concerned, whatever the Yankees do with him will only be for this next year.  He's on a 1-year contract and with the type of money he'll command in free agency after next season there's no chance the Yankees bring him back again with the payroll goal being the first priority.  A-Rod is a different story, however, as he'll still have 4 more years left on his contract, 4 years that could be very long and painful for everyone to watch if he continues down the path he's already on.  While they have time to plan out a strategy, it would behoove the Yankees to investigate a way to move A-Rod to DH full time.

The Real Impact Of Derek Jeter's Ankle Injury

(How's that ankle going to respond the first time Jeter has to make a similar play to his left next year?  Courtesy of Getty Images)

The immediate impact of Derek Jeter’s ankle injury was major and painfully obvious to anybody who watched the ALCS. Without him in the lineup or on the field, the Yankees managed to score just 2 runs in the final 3 games while giving up more than that and committing 3 official defensive errors, 5 if you want to be a stickler like me and give Chavez and Teix Es for their stay-back botches in Game 4.  Even deeper than the on-field results, the entire attitude and morale of the team seemed to drop without the presence of The Captain. Say what you want about his robotic repetition of nothing comments to the media, but the tired, lifeless nature of the Yankees’ play in the final 3 games should stand as an example of just what kind of behind-the-scenes leader Jeter is in the clubhouse and how important he still is to the Yankees’ success. Losing Jeter for this year’s ALCS was a big enough blow to the Yankees, but the impact this injury has on next season could be even greater.

Jones & Ibanez Running On Fumes

(Doesn't look like a positive reaction to that AB.  Courtesy of Getty Images)

It's no secret that Andruw Jones and Raul Ibanez have been complete dog mess at the plate for a while now.  It should also come as no surprise that they've done a slow descent into below replacement-level production territory given how much more they've had to play this year because of injuries.  Jones' 264 total plate appearances are already more than he had last year, and Ibanez's 385 PA are much more than the Yankees envisioned him getting after seeing how poorly he produced over the course of 500+ the year before.  This is the risk you take when you fill your bench with old, limited players and it's finally coming back around to bite the Yankees at the most critical of times.  The question now becomes what do they do with them moving forward?

Middle Relief Regression Is A Bummer

(They haven't all been "Booooooone" chants this month.  Courtesy of The AP)

Considering the injuries that they've had to deal with, the job the Yankee bullpen has done this season has been nothing short of outstanding.  Rafael Soriano has been even better than he was in his standout 2010 season that inspired the top Yankee brass to offer him his big contract, D-Rob has been quietly awesome again, and there have been big contributions from some very unexpected sources to help soak up middle innings while other guys were out.  It is those middle innings that have become a problem this month, as the 'pen has regressed to a 4.29/3.44/3.55 line in 50.1 combined innings of work.  The problem has been the bulk of the guys pitching in front of D-Rob and Soriano starting to struggle, leaving the pickings slim and risky when Joe has to manage the 6th and 7th innings.  The Yankees didn't make a move to add bullpen depth at the trade deadline, counting on the return of Joba Chamberlain being a stabilizing factor.  That hasn't happened and now the middle relief corps is turning into a weakness at the wrong time of the season.

Cory Wade's Regression Into Ineffectiveness

(That's the "Joe is coming out to get me 'cause I pitched like dogmess" look if I've ever seen it.  Courtesy of Getty Images)

Less than 2 months ago, Cory Wade was on top of the world, or at least on top of the bullpen.  He had risen up to the role of setup man with Mo and D-Rob on the shelf and had me praising him for his new approach and lights out peripherals.  Last night, Wade made his first appearance for Empire State after pitching so poorly in June that he was demoted to Triple-A to make room for Chad Qualls.  A couple of commenters were quick to point out that Wade's hot start was almost assuredly not sustainable due to his lack of true dominant stuff and track record, and in the back of my own mind I was fully prepared to watch him regress a bit.  But the quickness and horrible-ness with which Wade regressed was surprising.  When your team considers Chad Qualls and his 5.39 FIP, 23.3 HR/FB %, and -0.5 fWAR to be an improvement over you, that's saying something.