Thursday Morning Food For Thought: A Simple Lineup Switch

Talking about the need for Joe to make lineup changes is almost a dead horse topic at this point.  He's fiddled where and when he could, but regular injuries and subpar performance have handcuffed any chances for real results.  He's not going to move Derek Jeter out of the 2-spot, he can't count on Carlos Beltran being a reliable run producer in the middle, and if he had somebody better than Ichiro to hit 7th he would be using him now.  The Yankee lineup is what it is.

Except for 1 easy and almost stupidly logical move that Joe can still make.  He could swap Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner in the batting order.  Ellsbury can go back and hit first like he was always supposed to, and Gardner, one of the hottest hitters on the team, can move down to a better run-producing spot in front of Teix.  Ellsbury's a better base stealer, Gardner has hit for more power, what is there to lose?  I doubt it's going to happen, but I'm rooting for it when the lineup card comes out tomorrow afternoon.

P.S.- For more on this topic, check out William Tasker's post from Tuesday at IIATMS/TYA.

Joe Needs To Keep Lengthening The Leash On His Young Starters

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

(Originally posted at IIATMS/TYA)

A funny thing happened this last turn through the rotation.  Joe showed a little more faith in his trio of young replacement starters, allowing all of them to work deeper into the game than they have since taking spots in the rotation, and the world didn't collapse in on itself.  In fact, the Yankees won 2 of the 3 games pitched by David Phelps, Vidal Nuno, and Chase Whitley, and may have snuck out a win in the other game if Joe had put a competitive lineup on the field.

The Yankees have had a ton of problems in their rotation already this year, almost all of them due to injury.  The latest issue has been not getting enough length from the starters and it was an issue partially perpetuated by Joe and his quick hook with these 3.  He knows who his bullpen aces are and he's leaned heavily on them to carry the burden of holding leads rather than leave it in the hands of pitchers in which he doesn't have as much confidence.  This apparent change in philosophy over the last 5 days is something that needs to continue if the Yanks are going to stay afloat into the summer.

Maintaining Kuroda's Workload Restriction In The Face Of A Rotation Depletion

(Courtesy of the AP)

It's Pitcher Workload Monday around here today, huh?  That'll happen when 60% of your Opening Day  rotation is on the DL and replaced with 3 guys who struggle to complete 6 innings.  Further complicating matters is the fact that one of the remaining 2 healthy starters, Hiroki Kuroda, entered this season with a workload restriction attached to him.  Similarly to how Joe handled Andy Pettitte last season, the plan for Kuroda was to be a 6-inning/100-pitch pitcher for the most part.  The thought was that by limiting him to those thresholds early, it would help prevent the late-season decline in performance he experienced in 2013.  It's also a smart "better safe than sorry" strategy to take with a pitcher in his late 30s.

The problem with that strategy is that the substitution of Nuno-Phelps-Whitley for Nova-Pineda-Sabathia has put an extra strain on the bullpen.  One way to help alleviate that strain would be to let Kuroda pitch a little deeper in his outings, something Joe had the opportunity to do that in yesterday's opening doubleheader game.  Instead, he chose to stick to script with Kuroda and not push him.

Maybe It's Time For A New Strategy, CC

The curse of the one bad inning continued for CC Sabathia yesterday.  This one was particularly bad because of the Brendan Ryan error that allowed the inning to continue and the back-to-back jacks that followe.  After the game, CC talked about what he was trying to do in the at-bat against Jonathan Lucroy:

“Just trying to throw a comeback sinker.  Ended up middle, didn't get in enough, and he put a good swing on it. Just a mistake."

Far be it for me to question a guy who's pitched for as long as CC has, but maybe throwing a sinker in an 0-2 count wasn't the best decision.  He's been so inconsistent with command of both of his fastballs this year and at 89-90 MPH, they aren't swing-and-miss pitches anymore.  In that situation, I would have rather seen another slider to try to get the strikeout.  Hell, waste one way down in the dirt and see if you can get Lucroy to chase.  That's way better than throwing a hittable fastball anywhere in the strike zone, regardless of whether you hit your spot or not.

I don't know, maybe I'm off base here.  It just doesn't make a lot of sense to me to throw your weakest pitches in a pitcher's count.  If the sinker was 92-93 with consistent movement, it'd be a different story.  But it's not and CC's not locating where he wants to, so why throw it and give the hitter a chance when you've already got him in an 0-2 hole?

A Quick Word On The Shift

(Just one more thing for Johnson to learn at third.  Courtesy of Getty Images)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

Yesterday, Pete Caldera wrote an interesting little article about the Yankees' plans to employ infield shifts more this year as part of their in-game defensive strategy.  They're one of the teams that hasn't been as quick to jump on the shift bandwagon as a team like the Rays, and with a very old and very range-limited starting infield this season it makes sense to try to cover some of those infield range holes with a shift in situations that call for it.

Thinking About The Potential DH Carousel

(Not pictured: the Yankees DHs.  Courtesy of Richard Walker)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

We're less than 4 weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting, so baseball is officially out there on the horizon.  When that Friday comes, baseball will officially be back and a few days later when the rest of the team arrives at the Tampa complex Spring Training 2014 will be fully underway.  As usual, there will be a handful of roster battles that will dominate the ST headlines, highlighted by the annual 5th starter competition.  A bench job or 2 will be up for grabs, as will some bullpen roles, possibly the closer role if the Yanks do end up signing another veteran late-inning reliever, and the third base platoon jobs.

One spot that won't be up for competition this year is designated hitter.  The older and injury risky Yankees have more candidates for the DH spot than ever this season and will most likely be rotating a large cast of veteran characters through it in an attempt to keep everybody as well-rested and healthy as possible.  How that rotation is going to work and what players get the most time in the DH spot remains to be seen, and managing that rotation will be among the most daunting tasks on Joe's plate this season.

Joe Goes Back To The Hughes Well For Tonight's Start

(Hope Joe's ready to make this walk again.  Courtesy of Getty Images)

Guess that bullpen demotion was just a temporary thing.  After only 1 missed start in the rotation - against the Red Sox this past Saturday - and a pair of meaningless relief appearances, Phil Hughes will re-replace David Huff in the rotation and make the start in tonight's series finale against the O's.

Joe' motivation for making the swap again is questionable at best.  This is the same Phil Hughes who was deemed no longer worthy of his rotation spot after a crappy appearance against the slap-hitting Toronto lineup and the same Phil Hughes who has given up 7 ER on 14 hits (5 of them home runs) in 9 total IP over 2 starts against Baltimore this season.  His weaknesses as a pitcher are what the Baltimore lineup thrives against and if he wasn't getting the job done against inferior competition why would be worthy of essentially getting a promotion against better competition?

When Is Joe Going To Shorten CC's Leash?

(Courtesy of the AP)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

In a scene that has become way too common for comfort this season, CC Sabathia failed to protect the lead the offense gave him on Saturday.  In a span of 4 batters and 16 pitches to start the bottom of the 6th, Sabathia gave up 3 runs on 3 hits and a walk, turning a 2-0 Yankee lead into a 3-2 deficit from which they would not come back.  Sabathia had allowed just 2 baserunners in the 5 previous innings, and his pitch count wasn't very high, but the decision to allow him to continue in that inning was questionable at best.  He left a sinker up on the leadoff hit and the walk to the next batter was on 4 pitches, all either 4-seam fastballs or sinkers that missed.  It was clear CC had lost his command, and with the go-ahead run stepping to the plate and the Yankees needing every win they can get it was probably the time to pull him.

Careful Not To Over-Rest Mo

(Courtesy of the AP)

Mariano Rivera made his return to the mound last night after a week off from action.  He hadn't pitched since blowing his third consecutive save last Sunday against the Tigers, and no, nothing was physically wrong with him.  After experiencing his first rough patch of the season, Joe elected to give Mo some extra time off after a somewhat heavy workload the week prior.  Overworking a 43-year-old baseball icon and risking injury to him would not be a fun way to finish Mo's final season, but to go a full week between appearances seemed like a bit of overkill.  After all, the only way a pitcher gets over command problems is by continuing to pitch and working through them.  Mo's recent struggles being command-based, it would have been helpful to get him some work prior to last night.

Joe Still Pushing The Right Buttons

(Courtesy of the AP)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

I know I wasn't all that enthused to see that both Brett Gardner and Ichiro Suzuki were out of the starting lineup last night, even with a lefty opposing pitcher on the mound.  I was even less enthused to see Eduardo Nunez batting leadoff in their place and was fully prepared to write this morning's post on Joe still leaning too hard on the matchup binder instead of just playing his best guys.  Naturally the team went off for 14 runs on 19 hits, Nunez went 2-6 with 2 R and 4 RBI at the top of the lineup, all 14 runs were driven in by right-handed batters, the Yankees won their 3rd in a row and 4th out of 5, and I was once again reminded why Joe is the manager of the New York Yankees and I'm a cubicle monkey Yankee blogger.

Yanks Planning To Run Jeter Into The Ground Now?

(Courtesy of the AP)

That Derek Jeter is out of the lineup again and possibly heading back to the disabled list for leg issues is not surprising.  He's battled them since first starting his comeback from ankle surgery in Spring Training and 2013 has all but turned into a lost season for him because of it.  Based on comments made by Joe before and after last night's game, the Yankees' possible plan to handle Jeter moving forward does come as a bit of a surprise.

Joe Brings The Old Sac Bunt Out Of His Bag Of Tricks

(Smart play or wasted opportunity?  Courtesy of the AP)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

There's perhaps no play in baseball that further divides old school fans and analysts from the more sabermetrically-inclined new school crew than the sacrifice bunt.  What one calls a gritty, smart "baseball play," the other calls pointless and a waste of a perfectly good out.  Personally, I've always been on the new school side.  I just don't like the idea of giving up outs and killing chances for a potentially bigger inning by sacrificing one.  I can, however, see the value in a sac bunt in certain situations or at certain times in certain games, and that's why I'm not sure how I feel about Joe bringing it back this weekend.  Joe has used the sac bunt a time or 2 in the past, usually in situations that left more people scratching their heads than clapping their hands.  Against the Orioles, he damn near featured it as the focal part of the Yankee offense.

The Return Of The Old Guy Outfield Platoon

(Courtesy of the AP)

(Originally published at IIATMS/TYA)

The Yankees won for the first time in almost a week last night.  And they did it with one of their most recently productive bats on the bench to start the game.  With a left-handed starter on the mound, Joe elected to sit Ichiro Suzuki, probably for rest more than anything, and start Vernon Wells in right field.  With Zoilo Almonte looking good in his Major League debut and solidifying his role as the starting left fielder, right field turned back into the L/R platoon the Yankees always envisioned it, for one night at least.  With the way things worked out last night, Joe might want to consider going to that well more often.

Overbay In Right? Why The Hell Not?

(Courtesy of Paul J. Bereswill/NY Post)

The Yankees zigged when most of us thought they were going to zag again yesterday, electing to send Brennan Boesch down to Triple-A to clear a 25-man spot for Andy Pettitte and going ahead with the "Lyle Overbay in the outfield" plan.  It had been hinted at, talked about, but never truly believed as a viable option  in the last week until he was written in as the starting right fielder for last night's game.  I mean, we're talking about a 36-year-old career first baseman who had never played a single inning in the outfield in his Major League career before last night.  He was using Boone Logan's glove out there in place of his regular first baseman's glove last night!  It was another outside-the-box roster decision made out of necessity, the latest in a long series of similar decisions made this season, and once again it worked out for the best.

On Joe's Recent Lack Of Pinch Hitting Logic

(Come on, Joe.  You're better than that.  Courtesy of the AP)

As a blogger and a Yankee fan who's had to warm up to Joe Girardi and his management style over the years, I have to say that I think he's done a fantastic job through the first 21 games this season.  Put into an even tougher position with the lineup than the one he ended the 2012 postseason in, Joe has been proactive and creative in his approach to building the lineup each day, even if it hasn't always lead to positive results.  He's also been good about using his bullpen and not over/underworking any of his important pitchers.  The team's unexpected (in my eyes at least) 12-9 start is just as much a testament to the job Joe has done as it is to the performances of the players on the roster.  That's why I hate to have to pick nits and beat him up a little here, but there have been two recent decisions to not pinch hit late in games in situations that were screaming for it that left me wondering what Joe was thinking.

Anatomy Of An Unexpected Comeback

Things weren't looking good for the boys last night.  They were down 3-0 heading into the bottom of the 7th inning and hadn't shown many signs of offensive life against Arizona starter Wade Miley.  He had cruised through 6 innings of work on just 77 pitches, the kind of efficiency that few Yankee starters have had this season, mainly on the strength of his 2-seamer.  The Yankee lineup played into Miley's game plan by swinging early in a lot of at-bats, and the fact that Miley hadn't had to go to his curveball and changeup much didn't bode well for the Bombers as they opened the bottom of the 7th with the weakest part of their lineup.  But as the old saying goes, that's why they play the game and the game the Yankees played in that half inning was the kind of smart, clutch, winning baseball that they were unable to play in so many close games last season.

Doubleheader Pre-Thoughts & Thoughts

(Phil don't care about no rain.  Courtesy of the AP)

Monday was the last scheduled off day for the Yankees this year, an off day that was well-timed to get Derek Jeter another day off his bruised ankle and give the bullpen a day of much-needed rest.  Yesterday was supposed to be the start of a 16-in-16 stretch to close the season, but after the intense weather led to an early calling of last night's game it'll be a 16-in-15 instead, starting with today's doubleheader.  There's almost assuredly going to be some major strategic changes by Joe today, starting with his decision to announce David Phelps as the starter of tonight's second game.  My thoughts on today's double dip after the jump.

Some Friendly Suggestions For The Final 3 Weeks

These past 3 weeks have not been enjoyable as a Yankee fan or a writer.  There isn't much to be found in the way of positive talking points, and I feel like the Yankees' pathetic play has been taking its toll on me.  It's mentally and emotionally draining to watch the team play the same tired, sloppy, lifeless brand of baseball and then have to either stay up way later than I wanted to or drag my ass out of bed way earlier than I wanted to the next day to write about it.  So you know what?  Rather than sit here and agonize over the crummy bullpen or RISP Fail for the umpteenth time, I'm just going to offer up a few friendly ideas for what I think needs to be done in these last 3 weeks of the regular season.  Some of them could help the Yankees win more game, some might not, but at this point I'm fed up with watching the same things continue to happen and continue to generate the same results.  I fancy myself a pretty knowledgeable baseball guy, so maybe these suggestions are actually the keys to righting the ship.  They can't be any worse than the strategy Joe's already rolling with.

A Shift In Defending The Yankees?

One of the more interesting subplots to this past weekend's season-opening series was the generous use of the defensive shift by the Rays against the big boppers in the Yankee lineup.  The shift is nothing new for them, as they employ it more than any other team in baseball, and nothing new for hitters like Mark Teixeira.  But to see it used against hitters like A-Rod and C-Grand was a new wrinkle, at least for me, and raises a question on whether or not the Rays uncovered a new way to defend against the powerful Yankee lineup.

Employing the shift against Teix is almost commonplace nowadays when he's hitting from the left side.  With the way he's become a pull-happy, all-or-nothing hitter from the left side over the past few seasons, it's something that any smart team would do.  Teix still hasn't shown enough in terms of his ability to consistently hit the other way from the left side to dissuade teams from using the shift and it worked to the Rays' advantage this weekend.  The Horse and Curtis don't have reputations as being prime candidates for the shift, at least not to the degree that Teix does, but in looking at their career pull/opposite way splits, it's not all that surprising that the Rays utilized the shift against them as well.  For the sake of comparison...

Mark Teixeira (left-handed):

- OPS Pull Side- 1.200 career/ 1.000 in 2011
- OPS Opp. Way- .632 career/ .187 in 2011

- wOBA Pull Side- .502 career/ .492 in 2011
- wOBA Opp. Way- .265 career/ .080 in 2011

Alex Rodriguez:

- OPS Pull- 1.164 career/ .916 in 2011
- OPS Opp.- .872 career/ .664 in 2011

- wOBA Pull- .490 career/ .393 in 2011
- wOBA Opp.- .358 career/ .280 in 2011

Curtis Granderson:

- OPS Pull- 1.219 career/ 1.494 in 2011
- OPS Opp.- .720 career/ .517 in 2011

- wOBA Pull- .512 career/ .625 in 2011
- wOBA Opp.- .303 career/ .218 in 2011