The barrage of prospect lists continued today as Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus released his Top 101 of 2012. The same four gentlemen who showed up on Keith Law's Top 100 last week were also in attendance at Mr. Goldstein's party, but in a different order. Manny Banuelos came in at 29, Gary Sanchez at 40, Dellin Betances at 63, and Mason Williams at 99.
Obviously the biggest difference is Williams. He was 34th on Keith Law's list, so clearly Goldstein isn't as sold on the tools and the ceiling as Law is, but that's to be expected when comparing to Law. Goldstein also seems to see a little more in Betances, placing him 20 spots higher than Law. For those interested, Goldstein ranked The Jesus 7th.
"Yankees reliever Joba Chamberlain made 15 throws in his second session on a half-mound at the team’s minor-league complex, part of his rehabilitation after elbow ligament replacement surgery.
Chamberlain said he was 'happy with the progress and feeling good,' after throwing off the 5-inch mound Friday.
Derek Jeter is set to hit on the field for first time Monday and is looking to 'pick up where we left off last year' when his batting average increased from .260 to .297 after he returned from a strained right calf on July 4.
Right-handers Phil Hughes, Ivan Nova and Cory Wade threw off bullpen mounds. Pitchers and catchers are scheduled to report for spring training on Feb. 19." (Courtesy of The AP)
Well how do you like them apples? Still a week away from Spring Training officially beginning and the Yankees already have a small army on site in Tampa getting a head start on their preseason work. And one of the guys there is The Captain himself, leading by example. I love it. This is where championship teams are forged.
Meanwhile, the Fraud Sawx probably haven't stopped playing Call of Duty: MW3 since their season ended last year. Tough to get the right grip on your slider with chicken grease on your fingers and carpal tunnel setting in from holding the PS3 controller too long.
One week from now, none of this payroll, DH, A.J. Burnett bullshit will matter. There won't be any more discussions about who to sign and who not to sign, who should start and who should be in the bullpen, or what guy they should go after in the offseason. Because one week from now pitchers and catchers report, the Yankees get back on the diamond, and we can finally get back to talking about actual baseball. It's going to be great.
One week, 7 days, I'm fucking excited. Start the countdown...
I've got the champagne on ice, the confetti poppers on standby, and the leftover New Year's noisemakers ready for the moment the A.J. trade to the Pirates becomes official.
There's no indication it's going to happen today. The talks are now centering around the money, with the Pirates being willing to pay $10 million and the Yankees looking for a 50/50 split, and Garrett Jones is off the table, but every indication is that talks are moving forward and every report coming in from the Olneys and Rosenthals of the world make it seem like it's only a matter of time.
And if that's the case, then I'm damn well not going to be unprepared for the announcement.
With the countdown to Spring Training now in the single digits, the Yankees made their roster of players who will attend final on Thursday, announcing their list of 27 non-roster invitees. With the majority of what will eventually be the 25-man roster already all but set in stone, few of these 27 guys have a real shot at making the Yankees out of ST, and even fewer will end up making it after all the trade/FA dust settles in the next week or so. With that mind, I decide to break these 27 down into categories so you'd know who's who and who's here to do what this Spring Training.
There's going to be a ton of pitchers at Spring Training and they've all got to get work in. Russell Martin and Francisco Cervelli can't catch everybody, so these guys will be here to help handle the workload behind the plate. With the real catching roster battle being between Frankie and Austin Romine for the backup role, these guys will start to be cut as roster cuts are made and fewer pitchers are on hand. Sanchez and Murphy will get some attention from the coaching staff thanks to their prospect status, but they're both too far away from the show for real consideration.
All three of these guys are on the Yankees' radar as future pieces of the pitching staff, but for a variety of reasons (inexperience, injuries, development) they are all far enough away that there is no chance of them making the show this year. This is more like a first-round "American Idol" audition for these three. If Joe and Larry Rothschild like what they see, they might give them a ticket to Hollywood. But there's almost no shot of them being roster finalists in 2012.
Warren could see himself in pinstripes if injuries strike the rotation during the season. Banuelos likely won't, but can use this ST as an audition for the 2013 rotation, especially if he shows improved command. Pope, Whelan, and Whitley could all be considered for injury replacement bullpen roles during the regular season and can also secure a call up in September by having good showings in ST. All of these guys are pitchers who could help the team in the next year or so, and will be watched more closely than the three in the previous category.
It would be a legitimate shock if any of these players made the club. You're talking everything from age-related decline to performance inconsistency to major injuries that have affected these gentlemen's careers, and it will take a lot, and I mean A LOT, for them to make their way onto the 25-man. The most intriguing options here are Miller because of his stuff and Cedeno just because he's a lefty.
I don't expect anybody from this group to make the team out of ST and I don't think anybody else does either. But they all have something working to their advantage that could give them a leg up on their competition come decision time if they really shine in camp. Curtis and Wise both have OF experience at the Major League level, and Curtis has the added bonus of that experience being with the Yankees. O'Conner has been around a long time and is a lefty, although he has the biggest uphill battle to climb. And Vazquez, as much of an "all or nothing" hitter as he may be, has nowhere to go but up. With the DH spot not locked down, he could force his way into the discussion with a big power display.
The way I see it, these are the only guys with a real chance to make the Yankee 25-man roster this spring. Right now there is one spot in the bullpen and two spots on the bench up for grabs and these guys are the leading candidates for those spots. Delcarmen and Okajima will likely be battling for that last spot in the 'pen, assuming A.J. is eventually traded, and based on the Yankees' familiarity with both of them, either can win with a good showing. Branyan is the leading candidate for the lefty DH spot on the bench right now, at least until Eric Chavez is signed, and helps his case by being able to play first if needed. And Hall is also most likely to get the 13th bench spot because of his ability to play multiple infield positions and a Major League track record, even over a guy like Brandon Laird.
It's unfortunate that Hall has to be put in that last category, because he sucks, but that's the way I see these guys shaking out right now. This could all change in the next week if the Yankees do sign another FA DH candidate or complete the A.J. Burnett trade for something useful (Garrett Jones), but right now that's the breakdown of the lucky 27.
I don't know about you guys (and gals), but I worked too damn hard this week. Somehow, someway, I still managed to find enough time to gather up the best of the week that was around the Yankosphere. The things I do for you. If you're shutting down mentally for the day like I am, hopefully this is enough to kill the rest of the time you have to spend in the office.
- On Monday, Larry Koestler of RAB continued to kick the "Mark Teixeira should bunt more" theory down the stairs byexamining Teix's pitch breakdowns from the left side, and specifically what he's doing against the curveball. Repeat after me, everybody. No bunts, better approach. No bunts, better approach.
- On Tuesday, William Tasker of IIATMS compared Francisco Cervelli and Austin Romine as backup catcher options. As a guy who's no fan of Cervelli and still not 100% sold on Russell Martin staying healthy for a whole season, I can totally get behind Romine getting the spot to get more reps.
- Also on Tuesday, the team over at Bleeding Yankee Blue interviewed Nick Swisher. I feel like I'm definitely the last blogger out there who hasn't actually talked to someone from the Yankee organization.
- On Wednesday, BryanV21 of The Greedy Pinstripes took his turn breaking down the hypothetical 2014 payroll to see if there's room for Cole Hamels. As the guy who wrote the "dream rotation" post that got hijacked by the commenters and turned into a discussion about what hitters to go after, it's good to know I'm not the only one out there who wants Hamels.
- Joe Pawlikowski of RAB traced the long and mostly mediocre history of Yankee catchers between the Thurman Munson and Jorge Posada eras. Definitely a cool read to see some of the names that get brought up there. They're pretty easy to forget about when you've got Berra, Dickey, Howard, and the aforementioned Munson and Posada getting all the shine.
- On Thursday, el duque of It Is High!... made an impassioned, and very logical, argument for why the Yankees should hang on to A.J. and not use his salary relief as a reason for not signing a DH target (Damon). I'm always the first in line to punk A.J., but I found myself nodding in agreement with everything ED had to say here.
- Frank Campagnola of Pinstripe Alley looked into Russell Branyan's BABIP to see if 2011 was just a bad luck speed bump on Branyan's otherwise stellar track record of hitting right-handed pitching or the start of something more. Here's hoping it was just bad luck because I'd love to see him launch a few homers in Yankee Stadium wearing pinstripes for a change.
- William Juliano of The Captain's Blog crunched the numbers on Keith Law's Top 100 Prospects, and took the time to point out that if you count Montero and Arodys Vizcaino, there's a lot of big time talent on this list that was drafted, signed, and/or developed by the Yankees.
- On the heels of his NoMaas interview last week, this week Dante Bichette Jr. talked to Delia E. of Yankees Fans Unite. Yep, I'm definitely the only one not interviewing people. Balls. Good job, Delia, and nice job getting Dante to shout out Mariel Checo as the GCL teammate that impressed him the most last season.
- We'll finish this up with a trio from my boys at TYA. First up, Mike Jaggers-Radolf tackled the A-Rod health subject again on Monday, reminding us that when he is healthy he can still produce at a well above-average clip.
- On Wednesday, Alex Geshwindtalked about Ivan Nova's strikeout rates as a predictor of his future ceiling while also taking the time to point out that Nova can still be successful and still be a valuable piece to the rotation even if his K/9 never rises above the 6s.
- Also on Wednesday, Michael Eder looked at the Yankees' history of scouting and developing great relief pitching over the past 20 years. It started with Mo and it's continued right through today. Say what you want about their ability to develop starters, but there's no denying that the Yankees have an eye and a method for relief talent.
We can't leave without a jam of the week, and after three weeks of asking I FINALLY got a reader request. Courtesy of loyal AB4AR fan Jessica E., who was nice enough to offer her request on the AB4AR Facebook page, here's The Cure with "Friday, I'm in Love." Enjoy the weekend, everybody.
In the Yankees' continued effort to move A.J. Burnett, a serious potential trade partner might be materializing in the Pittsburgh Pirates. It started with some Buster Olney reports on Twitter yesterday, and it's continued today with Jon Heyman picking up the story.
The talks right now center around the Pirates' need for a pitcher who can eat innings and the Yankees' desire to get lefty-hitting Garrett Jones back in the deal. Jones, 30, is a .254/.323/.450 career hitter (.334 wOBA), and is even better against right-handed pitching, posting a .275/.354/.483 slash and a .360 wOBA in over 1,000 career AB against righties. He has legit power (.196 career ISO) and a decent BB rate, and would be an ideal candidate to fill the lefty DH role in the Yankees lineup, but so far the Pirates have shown no interest in parting with Jones.
(That swing would look nice in pinstripes. Courtesy of Getty Images)
With the Yankees continuing to look for ways to add two bats despite signing Russell Branyan, this trade makes a lot of sense for them. Jones would give them a legit lefty threat from the DH spot and presumably the Yankees would free up that little bit of money they're looking to use to spend on a Chavez or Ibanez type, if they would even still be targets after acquiring Jones. But if the Pirates take a hard stance on giving up Jones, the Yankees may have to sweeten the deal. Whether that means agreeing to pick up more than the $25-28 million they're reportedly willing to eat or adding another player is unknown, but for a hitter of Jones' caliber that might be worth it. He would be a better option than any of the free agents the Yanks are currently connected to, including Branyan. Stay tuned...
If you're a regular reader of AB4AR, you know by now that the Mets are one of my favorite punching bags. I like to take shots at them and break balls about how crappy they've been, and generally it's all meant to be funny and joking. But this story from earlier in the week by Howard Megdal of The Journal News and the LoHud Mets Blog, describing how he was denied media credentials by the Mets, is the epitome of classlessness on the part of the Wilpons and the latest, and strongest, example of just how awful that organization is.
Basically what it boiled down to was Megdal writing a book about the Wilpons and all the shit they were in after the Madoff scandal that was published in December. The Wilpons weren't fans of what Megdal had to say in his book, despite the fact that he reached out to the organization multiple times during the writing process and spoke to members of the organization as part of his reporting for the book, and so they decided to stiff him on his clubhouse credentials for the 2012 season. This message was passed along by Jay Horowitz, who when asked by Howard why he wasn't going to be issued credentials, said that the Mets simply, "don't like his reporting."
Now I don't know Howard personally, and I only know about this story because it was brought to my attention by one of my fellow TYA writers in an email yesterday. But from everything I can gather from people who do know him and are familiar with his work, he is a good dude, a diehard Mets fan, and a damn good reporter. To have his credentials taken away by the Wilpons because of the book, which has never had its content questioned and has actually been supported a few times in other stories by the likes of the New York Times and ESPN, is a petty, cowardly, childish, unprofessional act that shows the type of people the Wilpons are and reinforces all the negative talk that has surrounded their time as the owners of the Mets. It's also downright un-American. It's Nazi-like. You don't like somebody calling you out for the shitty job you're doing? THEN DO A BETTER JOB!!! Don't take the coward's way out and deny the guy the ability to do his.
Howard Megdal is a reporter for a legitimate news outlet, so he has to bite his tongue on this whole issue and stick to the PC comments he made on the matter. I write a dinky little blog, so I don't have that problem. On behalf of Howard, I'd just like to say "fuck you" to Fred and Jeff Wilpon. You're slimy, dirty, pathetic, creepy, lying crooks who have managed to turn what was one of the better teams in the National League into an absolute joke of an organization. And in the process of doing so, you've spit in the eyes of everybody who cares about your team- the fans, the media, the players, the coaches, the team alumni, everybody. Howard Megdal's only crime was being good at his job and reporting the truth, two things that you know nothing about and never will. If it weren't for you relationship with Bud Selig, you would have been out on your asses a long time ago, and I can only hope that things continue to spiral downward for you to the point that you are forced out, because that's the only chance the Mets organization has to crawl out of the shitheap you've dumped it in.
I don't say this often, but today I can say with 100% honesty and no sarcasm that I feel sorry for all you Mets fans out there. And I feel sorry for Howard Megdal and the bullshit hand he's been dealt by those sleazeballs. You all deserve better.
Following up on his organizational farm system rankings yesterday, Keith Law was kind enough to unveil his Top 100 players list for the world today, as well as his Top 10 for each team.
The articles are Insider Only again, but the top 3 were Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, and Matt Moore. The Yankees were well-represented by prospects present and past, placing 4 of their own in the top 100 (ManBan 23rd, Williams 34th, Sanchez 55th, and Betances 83rd) and also having former Yankee farmhands Jesus Montero (9th) and Arodys Vizcaino (14th) place in the top 15.
I was a little surprised to see Williams ranked so highly and ranked above Sanchez, but that's pretty typical for Law's style of valuing tools and high upside more. He went upside-heavy with his Yankee top 10 as well:
1) Manny Banuelos- LHP 2) Mason Williams- CF 3) Gary Sanchez- C 4) Dellin Betances- RHP 5) Tyler Austin- IF 6) Jose Campos- RHP 7) Dante Bichette, Jr.- 3B 8) Austin Romine- C 9) J.R. Murphy- C 10) Slade Heathcott- OF
P.S.- It's still weird to think about The Jesus not being a Yankee anymore. Every time I see his name I feel like Lloyd Christmas.
Say what you will about how he handles his marital business, but there's no denying that Brian Cashman has been on a real hot streak over the last couple years as GM. He has made moves that have made the Yankees better, younger, and deeper as a Major League team and an organization, and has kept them consistently balanced for the present and the future through a combination of aggressive big-dollar signings, smart low-dollar signings, and wise decision making in the trade market, for trades both made and not made. He's continued that hot streak this offseason, pulling of a collection of smart moves that few saw coming, and doing it under the first semblance of a real payroll budget.
It seems like it was ages ago now, but Cash's best move this offseason might very well have been the his first one, the re-upping of CC Sabathia before he opted out and became a free agent. It looked like a done deal that CC was heading for the opt out when the Yankees swooped in on Halloween night and swiftly announced the signing before he could officially hit the market. Cash was able to orchestrate a deal that was both fair and attractive to CC and in line with the team's desire to not get locked into another super-long contract. Cash took the biggest free agent pitcher off the market before he could even reach it, forcing any teams that were focusing on offering CC a deal to rethink their strategy, guaranteeing that the Yankees would be winners in their search to upgrade their rotation, and starting the wheels turning on the rest of his plan to complete that upgrade.
The quick and painless process with which the Yankees and CC made their deal gave the impression to everybody out there that Cash was fully intending on being aggressively active at the Winter Meetings to try to lock up another big name to go with CC. Cash played to this expectation perfectly, meeting with enough agents and having enough involvement with all the big pitching targets that the teams who were really interested in them had to make serious offers, perhaps more serious than they were intending based on the Yankees' perceived interest and big-money reputation. And while all the focus was on the free agents, Cash was busy laying the groundwork for his deal with the Mariners. He used the team's perceived interest in guys like C.J. Wilson, Edwin Jackson, and Yu Darvish as a smoke screen to throw everybody off the path he really wanted to take to improve the rotation.
When Cash finally revealed that path to the world, we got the Pineda-Montero trade. It was a move that nobody saw coming, and it was a move that was beneficial to the Yankees in many ways. It allowed them to address their biggest area of weakness both for the present and for the future, and while it cost them their top prospect, it allowed them to deal from their deepest deck of prospect cards and not sacrifice any of the young pitching depth they've built. It also allowed the Yankees to improve that area of weakness without taking on significant salary, thus fitting in with their potential long-term goal of cutting payroll. It's that kind of forward thinking and big picture consideration that made this a no-doubt winning move, and it was all Cash. I mean, come on. You think Randy Levine could have pulled the Pineda trade off without giving up ManBan or Betances?
The way Cash has handled the follow-up to the big trade was brilliant as well, immediately announcing the Hiroki Kuroda signing. Kuroda was arguably the best free agent starter still available, and the Yankees got him for less than his asking price. He provides increased depth and stability to the rotation, should provide above-average production, and on a one-year deal, also fits right in with the long-term payroll flexibility plans. Cash could have gone after Kuroda aggressively during the Winter Meetings but was smart to not jump all over him then, instead choosing to give it some time until the FA pitching herd had thinned out and prices started to come down. This was a patient, calculated, well thought out plan to address the rotation and it was pulled off without anybody being tipped of to what the Yankees were doing. That's Ninja Style 101.
Keith Law of ESPN released his organizational MiL system rankings today, and the Yankees had a good showing, placing 10th overall. The entire article is Insider Only, but Law had this to say about the Yankee system:
"I might be jumping the gun here, but I see a lot of star potential on their bottom few affiliates, including new acquisition Jose Campos from Seattle, to go with the two power arms from their Scranton club (Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances). The flaw in the system is the lack of near-in talent, especially position players, who could either help the big club soon or provide more fodder for trades."
I think that's the most accurate description of the Yankee farm system anyone could make in so few words, and it will be important for guys like Zoilo Almonte and Ramon Flores to have success this year to try to move closer to providing some of that "near-in" depth that Law talks about. But what I think is most important to take from this is the fact that the Yankees dropped only one spot in the rankings, from 9th last year to 10th this year, despite trading away their #1 prospect. To maintain their status in the eyes of someone like Keith Law speaks volumes about both the talent level and depth in the Yankee farm right now.
As much as I despise the Bill Hall signing, low-risk as it may be, I absolutely LOVEtoday's signing of Russell Branyan to a MiL contract, presumably to compete for the lefty DH role that still remains vacant.
Branyan sucked pretty hard last season (.197/.295/.370, .300 wOBA in 146 PA), but he's only 1 year removed from posting a .350 wOBA in 3 times as many PA, only 2 years removed from a .368 wOBA in almost 4 times as many PA, and he absolutely demolishes right-handed pitching. Branyan also has a career BB rate of 11.9%, and has 8 career HR in just 47 AB at the new Yankee Stadium, so on paper he fits the mold for what the Yankees would be looking for out of a lefty platoon DH.
His major drop off in production last year is a legitimate concern given the fact that he's 36 years old, but that risk is eliminated by the deal being non-guaranteed. While we're all sitting around debating the pros and cons of guys like Ibanez and Damon and Chavez, Cash went out and brought in a guy who could be better than all of them for next to nothing. Total fucking ninja move.
In The Post this morning, Joel Sherman provided an update on where the Yankees' financial/roster filling priorities are right now, and included certain language implying that the amount of money they'd be willing to eat on A.J.'s contract has gone way up as a way to make those priorities happen.
"The perception has been that the Yankees have less than $2 million to sign a lefty-swinging designated hitter with free agents Eric Chavez, Johnny Damon, Raul Ibanez and Hideki Matsui forming the field. Nevertheless, what the Yankees want to do most is sign Chavez and one of the DH types.
Owner Hal Steinbrenner already has expanded his budget once this offseason to allow the signing of Hiroki Kuroda. He has yet to say the Yankees can do so again in order to sign even one additional player, much less two. This is why the Yankees are quietly — but diligently — still working to trade A.J. Burnett.
They know no team will take all of Burnett’s remaining two years at $33 million. But if they could save, say, $4 million this year and next year, it would provide some wiggle room to finish off their roster heading into spring training."
At first glance, I can get on board with this idea. Moving A.J., at any price, does provide some payroll relief and sets up a classic "two birds with one stone" scenario if that extra cash gives them the financial flexibility to sign the guys they want to sign to fill out the roster. You could even make the argument that by eliminating A.J. from the pitching stockpile right now, the Yankees are killing a 3rd bird by starting to clear up the 5th starter/back of the bullpen picture.
But if they are really dead set on sticking to their budget, I would question the tactic of splitting the freed up money on Chavez and another DH. Chavez was only mildly productive in his limited role last season, and as a caddy to A-Rod at 3rd he's not particularly valuable because he's almost as likely to get hurt as The Horse is. I'd rather see that role filled by the likes of Nunez and Brandon Laird and allow the extra money to be used to sign someone like Johnny Damon for closer to what he's looking for rather than wait for his, or anybody else's, price to come down to $2 million. It's only going to be for a 1-year deal anyway, so whether you're talking $2 mil or $4-5 mil it really won't affect anything from a long-term payroll standpoint.
From a baseball perspective, I get the deal. He can play multiple positions, he's got some pop with the bat, and at just 600 thou for a non-guaranteed MiL deal (according to Ken Rosenthal) he's the definition of a low-risk signing. I certainly don't expect him to reach any of his PA performance marks, and he has an out clause if he's not on the Opening Day roster. It's basically the same move the Yanks made with Ron Belliard last season, and it seems to be the Yankees' new MO when looking to fill out the roster.
From a personal perspective, COME ON!!! Really?!? Bill Hall?? That's the best they could come up with?? Bill Hall fucking blows. His .211/.261/.314 line last year makes Ramiro Pena look like Hanley Ramirez. And a .252 wOBA? Are you kidding me??? I feel like I'm looking at my career Little League numbers when I look at Hall's 2011 line, and remember, I quit baseball to play lacrosse.
Think about it this way. Eduardo Nunez was worth -0.6 fWAR last year in 338 PA for the Yankees. In 139 fewer PA, Hall managed to put together -1.6 fWAR. He was worth an entire loss on his own compared to Nunez in far less playing time. That's not just sucking, that's next level sucking right there. I don't root for guys to get hurt, but man, I really hope Bill Hall gets hurt in Spring Training.
I had a dream the other night. In it, the Yankees were in the postseason and they were just rolling through teams, winning more 3-1, 4-2, and 2-0 games than I could have ever imagined. Their starting rotation was absolutely stocked and they turned in gem after gem after gem, making the recent postseason offensive struggles a moot point as the Bombers marched through the playoffs on the strength of their pitching and hoisted the trophy for Title 28. I was in my usual Yankees' playoff position, standing directly in front of my TV in all my 2009 World Series gear, yelling and screaming and jumping around like a moron. It was a beautiful experience.
Then I woke up, looked around, realized I was still in bed with my sheets and pillows strewn about me, and quickly deduced that it was still early February 2012 and my dream is still over a year away from becoming reality. But in that realization, I also came to the conclusion that this scenario playing out in October of 2013 isn't that far fetched. As it stands right now, the Yankees have already made great strides towards bolstering their starting rotation for this season and beyond, and they could very well be on the cusp of building a full-fledged "dream" rotation before the calendar turns.
Consider this. The Yankees already have at least 40%, and possibly 60% of that dream rotation already. CC Sabathia is still the ace of this staff, still an elite starting pitcher, and will continue to be both of those things for at least the next couple years. Michael Pineda, even with the questions about his transition to the AL East and lack of experience, is still a 23-year-old monster right hander with top shelf stuff, a ROY-quality season under his belt, and the ceiling of a #1-#2-type starter long term if he continues to develop his offspeed offerings . And Ivan Nova, while not having Pineda-like stuff, exceeded all expectations last year and showed some promise as a potential above-average middle-of-the-rotation guy with his floor as a back-end starter being raised thanks to his improved slider and command
And while the Yankees kept the wallet closed this offseason, the free agent pitching class after this season is potentially deep and very talented, headlined by Cole Hamels. $189 million budget or not for 2014, I think it's safe to say that the Yankees are going to be involved in the bidding for Hamels' services. It wouldn't shock me at all if the Yankees went all in for Hamels in a manner similar to the aggressive approach they used in 2008 when they pursued CC. Hamels essentially represents exactly what CC was at the time in '08, a top shelf lefty with swing-and-miss stuff in the prime of his career, and would give the Yankees a legit 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation, while at the same time adding depth to the rotation by bumping Pineda and Nova down a spot.
While Hamels will not come cheap, the last piece of this dream rotation puzzle will. Dirt cheap in fact. Manny Banuelos, the top Yankee prospect, and #13 in all of baseball according to Baseball America, will be coming off his first full season in Triple-A ball. If he bounces back from his walk-plagued 2011 and shows the type of command that made him such a hot prospect, he will have nowhere to go but to the show in 2013. And with his command intact, Banuelos' ceiling jumps back up to "potential #2/stretch #1" territory as a starter. There aren't too many teams who can say that about their 5th starter, and even if he didn't pitch lights out in his rookie year, Banuelos would still likely be league average at worst.
I missed Eminem & Jay-Z in 2010. I missed the Metallica/Megadeth/Slayer/Anthrax "Big Four" show last year. And now I'm going to miss 2 Roger Water shows this summer where he's playing "The Wall" in its entirety.
Why the fuck did I move to Wisconsin again?
P.S.- If Yankee Stadium hosts a Tool/Deftones/QOTSA show in 2013, I'm going to be pissed.
I've been thinking about this since almost the moment the Yankees added Pineda and Kuroda to the rotation. It was inspired by the ideas proposed in the comments section of my next-day reaction post, those voices strongly in the corner of Freddy Garcia as not even the #5 starter, but the #2 right behind CC. I don't think that will happen, and truth be told, the order of the rotation is really only important when the season begins and in the last month of the regular through the playoffs. So in constructing my rotation for this season, I envisioned it heading into a 4-game postseason series.
1) CC Sabathia
Every good rotation needs an ace at the top, and CC has been nothing short of that since he first put on the pinstripes. He's big, he's strong, he can give you a ton of innings, he strikes guys out, he limits damage, he's pitched in a ton of big games before, and his performance backs up the big contract he was given this offseason. The Yankees are building the rotation for the future, but CC is still the head of the rotation right now. In a big game, who else would you rather have taking the ball?
2) Michael Pineda
I've heard all the arguments against him- struggled in the 2nd half, doesn't have a 3rd pitch, will get hurt pitching in Yankee Stadium, etc. But I've also seen the stuff he has and how it's worked for him, and I can point to his overall body of work last year, in his rookie season, and say that Pineda has the makings of a top-tier starting pitcher. I don't think the Yankees would trade away their best hitting prospect in a long time for a back-end starter, so why not give the kid this spot? He's got top-of-the-rotation stuff already; let him use it to grow into a top-of-the-rotation role.
3) Hiroki Kuroda
As much as I don't get too concerned with Pineda's negatives, knowing that they are there and could come up to bite him once or twice, I'd like to have a veteran pitcher behind him in the rotation, and that's exactly what Kuroda is. He won't blow anybody away with his stuff, but he knows how to pitch, he isn't going to get rattled by anything, and he can give you innings even when he isn't having his best stuff day. Kuroda would almost be like 2009 Andy Pettitte in this role, there to steady the ship if things in front of him get a little rocky.
4) Ivan Nova
While some have visions of the future #2 or #3 starter in their heads from the way he ended last season, the more likely case is that Nova tops out as a #4 starter. And to be a #4 starter with his potential is nothing to be ashamed of, so I'd like to see Nova down a bit in the order where he can work on improving his offspeed stuff and continue to build on the momentum from his strong finish to 2011. If Nova truly can replicate that success, then his ceiling will raise to that #2-#3 range and we all rejoice. But I'd rather let him see if he can reach that level in a low-stress role as the #4 guy.
5) Whoever
Whether the Yankees end up going with Phil Hughes' potential, Freddy Garcia's recent track record, or A.J. Burnett's contract, I think the winner of the last rotation spot will be in exactly that spot. And with what each brings to the table, there really isn't a bad option in the bunch for what the Yankees will need from the 5th spot in the rotation.
It seems pretty cut and dry to me. You put your best in the best spots in the rotation. But maybe not everybody shares my thoughts. So what do you think, Yankee fans? How would your 2012 starting rotation look?
I touched on it briefly on Saturday night on the AB4AR Facebook page, but I think it's news worth mentioning again as we're now less than 2 weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting.
He won't be among those showing up to compete for a spot on the roster, but Joba Chamberlain's rehab from last year's Tommy John Surgery continues to go well. He threw off a half-mound for the first time on Friday, with Larry Rothschild and Billy Connors watching, and is right on track for an early to mid-summer return.
It's still pretty far off, but I have to imagine Joba's rehab schedule will factor into how the Yankees choose to use whichever 2 pitchers don't get the 5th starter role, assuming all 3 are still around at the start of the season. The more innings they're throwing are fewer innings that Joba throws once he comes back. And since Joba has already been designated an official "Bullpen Guy" and presumably has more to offer the 'pen long term, it's probably better for the team if he pitches himself back into shape as much as possible. Lower-leverage bullpen innings would be perfect for that, but not if they're being soaked up by Freddy or A.J. Stay tuned.
Can we just get this stupid game over with already? I mean, what's the big deal?? It's not like there's a recent history between these two teams and a ton of interesting storylines and subplots involved that the MSM has beat into the ground and will continue to do right through the game today. It's just a football game.
And all the airtime being handed over to the Pats and Giants today is taking away from the REAL story. That pitchers and catchers report in 2 weeks. That's what people care about. That's what the Yankee fans want to talk about. Not The Super Bowl. Just get this damn game over so we can move onto Spring Training.
On the heels of their interview with Tyler Austin earlier in the week that I linked to yesterday, NoMaas struck back with another interview yesterday, this time with 3B and 2011 1st round pick Dante Bichette Jr. I would have to say my favorite part was this comment by Bichette:
"I want to be more consistent with my approach and learn how to make adjustments quicker. Instead of making an adjustment after a game and realize I was messing something up, it would be a lot better if I could make the adjustment during a game or an at-bat."
That's a very mature and reasonable goal to have for the season for someone still just 19 years old. I like the fact that Bichette is already starting to focus on the mental nuances of the game and not just the physical/mechanical tools. Like Mason Williams, Bichette comes off as a very mature, disciplined young man with a good head on his shoulders who understands that he still has a lot of work to do to become great. There's no doubt that growing up the son of a former Major Leaguer helped shape younger Dante's approach to baseball and I can't wait to see what he does this year in his first taste of a full-season league.
For my take on Bichette, check out my write-up on him from the AB4AR Top 30. I had Bichette considerably lower than most of the prospect lists that have been coming out lately, for the sole reason that I didn't want to rush to judgement on a kid who came in with a lot of question marks without seeing him in a full-season league. I sold Bichette a little short, predicting he'd start the season in SS Staten Island, and now I imagine the Yankees are going to be more aggressive and start him out in Charleston. If Bichette can put together another solid season in his first full season, he'll be a lock for my mid-season Top 10.
"When you think about Raul Ibanez, he has had success wherever he has [gone]... "
"Obviously, we know what Johnny and Matty [Matsui] have meant to this organization over the years, and how they've been successful in New York. I'm curious to see how it is all going to shake out."
"I can't tell you it is going to be one of those three guys, or anyone. But obviously, we know they know how to play here."
Well we know Joe likes his veterans, so this is really no surprise that he wouldn't mind having one of the 3 guys he's most familiar with and he thinks are most familiar with Yankee Stadium. But how good are these 3 as potential fillers of that lefty DH spot?
Ibanez was pretty awful in 2011 (.245/.289/.419, .306 wOBA, -1.3 WAR in 575 PA), but was better against righties (.256/.307/.440, .322 wOBA), making him an obvious platoon candidate. But even those positive splits aren't much to write home about, and Ibanez is old as fuck and basically useless as an emergency option to play the field. Not a lot to like here.
Damon was actually productive at the plate last season (.261/.326/.418, .328 wOBA in .647 PA) and it's likely those numbers would play up a bit more hitting in Yankee Stadium, a place Damon really learned how to tailor his lefty swing to in order to generate some good power numbers. But as a platoon DH candidate, Damon might not fit the Yankees' needs, indicated by his reverse vs. L/vs. R splits in 2011 (.812 OPS, .355 wOBA vs. L, .715 OPS, .313 wOBA vs. R).
Matsui, who is younger than Damon, might actually be the most shot out of any of these 3. He hit just .251/.321/.375 in 2011, and his reverse splits vs. right-handed and left-handed pitching is even more severe than Damon's (just a .291 wOBA vs. RH). Matsui is also practically incapable of playing the field, something that Damon can still do if needed.
Out of these 3, I think Damon's ability to still play the field and run the bases at a respectable level tips the odds in his favor, and he should bounce back a bit against righties hitting towards the short porch in right. But I'm not sure I would say I'm as big a fan of any of these 3 as primary options for the DH spot as Joe seems to be.
It's Friday afternoon again, it's pay day (at least for me), and we're a little over 2 days away from The Super Bowl. That means it's time for another Linkapalooza. Dig it.
- On Monday, Brien Jackson of IIATMS had a piece suggesting that the Yankees have too much talent in their bullpen and floated the idea of shopping D-Rob to see if they could bring in a good young bat. I've never even considered either of these theories, but Brien makes very good arguments for both.
- In keeping with the interview theme, Sensei John Kreese of NoMaas interviewed Tyler Austin on Tuesday as part of their always-ongoing "Stealth Bomber" series. I liked Austin's comments on base stealing. Kid already seems to have a great approach to that part of his game.
- On the other side of the A.J. Burnett coin was Rebel Yankee Chick's take on Cash's recent comments about A.J. I don't know if she read my take on those comments, but I'm picking up what she's putting down.
- To round out the interview parade this week, we've got fishjam25 of Yankees Fans Unite talking to Low-A Charleston's hitting coach, Greg Colbrunn. The parts that stood out to me most were Colbrunn talking about his hands-off approach with young hitters and the skill/name association game they played. A definite must-read.
- Earlier today, Larry Koestler of RAB expanded on my A.J. theories from earlier in the week and dug deeper to see if there were some trends in what pitches A.J. is throwing in particular counts. It's always great to have people out there smarter than me who think about these things that I don't. I'll set 'em up, you knock 'em down, Larry!
- Also from RAB, yesterday Mike Axisa proposed Andre Ethier as a lefty DH candidate. The numbers certainly make him look perfect for the job, but I don't know if I'd be willing to part with Betances and Romine to make it happen.
- William Juliano of The Captain's Blog looked into the Mark Teixeira bunting situation by breaking down his hitting splits to all fields from both sides of the plate. His conclusion that Teix should be looking to drive in runs no matter what is right in line with my feelings on the matter; William just has better numbers to support it.
- A pair from TYA, the first from Michael Eder, who on Wednesday looked at how Michael Pineda's 2011 numbers stack up against other pitchers' rookie seasons in the past decade. 3rd pitch or not, the numbers show that Pineda is already damn good and stands to get even better.
- Yesterday, EJ Fagan shed the light of perspective on Manny Banuelos, reminding those of you out there who had forgotten that ManBan is still just 20. At a time when he should be prepping for his junior year of college, he's pitching in Triple-A. That's impressive and says good things about his future potential.
- Normally, I only try to reference ESPN when Wallace Matthews is saying something stupid, but I gotta hand it to him. His "25 Questions, 25 Days" series on ESPNNY is top notch. If you aren't already checking it out daily, you should be.
- Lastly, just because I've moved away from writing about the NFL here doesn't mean I'm going to let The Super Bowl completely fly under the radar. Jamie Insalaco of Bomber Banter offers a pretty straightforward explanation as to why the Giants are going to win on Sunday. So that's good news for you if you're a Giants fan.
As for the Friday Afternoon Jam, we're gonna kick it old school with what I assume is Josh Hamilton's favorite Van Halen song. I don't know how long this latest reunion is going to last, but the David Lee Roth version of Van Halen is the only good version of Van Halen and that's a fact.
P.S.- You all lucked out this week on my empty Katy Perry threat (sorry, Dennis). Next week I won't be so nice. Hit me with some good requests, anything. And if you're one of the many who haven't done it yet, do me a solid and "Like" AB4AR on Facebook.
Meh. I've seen better. Stalkers are like big contracts. You only want to have one on your hands if it's an elite, game-changing talent. This chick is not that.
I will give her props for extorting a little coin from the Cash Man, though. This is the same guy who straight up robbed Swish from Kenny Williams, turned water into wine with Freddy and Bartolo, and just made a damn good trade for a 22-year-old power pitcher. He's usually pretty tough to out muscle in the dollar game.
P.S.- Is this why Cash hasn't traded A.J. yet? I imagine it can be a bit distracting closing a deal with another GM over the phone when you've got your stalker holding on Line 2.
(You can't say watching a repeat of this at Yankee Stadium in 2017 wouldn't be awesome.)
If you haven't checked out Chad Jennings' interview with Mason Williams over at LoHud, then I feel very sorry for you because it was a great read. If you have, then you probably came away from it with a good impression of young Mr. Williams based on what he had to say. One thing that stood out to me in this interview was Chad and Mason's discussion about the "core" group of players that were a part of the championship-winning team in SS Staten Island last year and the possibility of keeping that core together as they advance through the MiL system.
That core (Williams, Cito Culver, Dante Bichette Jr., Branden Pinder, Tyler Austin, Angelo Gumbs, Ben Gamel) will be moving up to Low-A ball this year to form what could be a very formidable Charleston River Dogs squad along with pitchers like Evan DeLuca, Bryan Mitchell, and new acquisition Jose Campos. Depending on which prospect list you swear by, this Charleston team will include 3-4 of the Yankees' top 10 prospects, 4-6 of their top 20, and 7 of my personal Top 30, and as fun as it is to consider how good this squad can be in 2012, it could be even more fun and possibly more beneficial to the Yankee organization to look long term and consider the value of keeping these guys together and formulating the next homegrown core of Yankee talent.
Baseball is a relatively easy sport to measure and quantify value and performance through statistics. Where it becomes more difficult to measure is in the intangible categories, specifically the concept of team chemistry. While a successful play in football or basketball typically requires the cooperation and combined successful efforts of multiple players doing different things, most successful plays in baseball involve one individual player making one individual play. If a batter swings and hits a home run, he really has nobody on his team to thank except himself. If he swings and misses, he doesn't have a teammate hitting from the other side of the plate who can take a hack as well. You get the idea. Theoretically, the "chemistry" and team spirit, whatever it may be, should have very little influence on how well baseball players and a baseball team play.
But in thinking back to all that I've read about the Yankee dynasty of the late 90s-early 2000s, particularly the 1996 and 1998 teams, I can't help but recall all the anecdotes and stories from players and coaches alike about the type of chemistry and clubhouse environment those teams had, and the close-knit culture that was established. Everybody knew their roles, every man played for his teammates, and there was very little concern given to ego or reputation, even when guys like Doc Gooden and Darryl Strawberry were introduced to the mix. Those teams were cohesive units, true sums of their parts, and Williams talking about fostering strong bonds with his teammates at these lower levels makes me think about how those bonds can be nurtured and strengthened over time, and whether or not there is value in the Yankees' front office making a conscious effort to keep this group together because of those bonds.
The standards for how members of the Yankees are expected to carry themselves since that last dynasty have been set and enforced primarily by the recent "Core Four" of Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada, and Andy Pettitte, the constants on the roster through a time of high turnover. With that group now down to two, and with Jeter and Mo seeing the lights at the end of their career tunnels, there will be a void left in carrying on the tradition of "The Yankee Way." Guys like CC, Cano, D-Rob, and Teix can pick up the slack, but they all took different paths to get to the Yankees and would really only be continuing the precedent set by the Core Four rather than establishing their own identity. And that precedent has been much more businesslike than the more familial atmosphere of the late-90s teams. Guys like Williams, Bichette, Pinder, whoever, who establish relationships and a team culture amongst themselves at these lower levels, could perhaps be the next in line to carry the "True Yankee" torch and get back to that family version of "The Yankee Way" that harks back to the glory days of the 90s. Would that help any? It's hard to say. But I certainly don't think it could hurt. A group of players who are familiar with each other and enjoy being around each other can set the tone for the entire team's attitude.
Besides the hard-to-define team spirit/clubhouse culture benefits, there are obvious, easily quantifiable benefits in terms of payroll management that can also be reaped from this scenario. The prevailing thought right now is that if the Yankees make a concerted effort to get to the $189 million payroll line for 2014, it would be to reset their luxury tax percentages and allow them to get back to their big-spending ways without being penalized as much for it. But what if they didn't HAVE to go back to those ways?
"I am comfortable with A.J. He's extremely talented and has been inconsistent, but I can tell you I'm comfortable with the effort he's giving, I'm comfortable with everything that he does, the accountability that comes with him. Obviously, we signed him to have more success than he's having, but it's a competitive industry and as long as he's not going to give up on himself, then I'm going to have his back the entire way."
Wait, I think I've seen this before. I know what happens next. Billy Eppler and A.J. get on a boat and go out to fish in the middle of the lake. Then there's a gun shot, A.J. is never heard from again, and the camera slowly pans back to show Cash sitting in his office looking out the window as the "Godfather" theme starts to play in the background.
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