Free-Flowing Montero-For-Pineda Trade Commentary

Well last night was fun, huh?  One minute you're sitting around scratching your balls, wondering how the Celtics are going to survive a compacted NBA season being so old and thinking about whether or not you like Daniel Bryan's heel turn, and the next minute the internet is blowing up with stories about Jesus Montero being traded for Michael Pineda, then blowing up again as the Yankees follow up that story with another story of them inking Hiroki Kuroda to a one-year deal.  In the span of 45 minutes, the Yankees came out of left field to completely overhaul their rotation in a way that helps them immediately and in the future.  My thoughts on what transpired last night, in somewhat of a particular order.

- Initial reaction was a negative one.  In my head, it didn't make sense to give up a piece of your starting lineup, a player who could inject some life into an aging lineup and be the next great Yankee bat, and a pitcher who could probably be the #4 guy in the 2012 rotation for just one piece that brings immediate help.  Subtracting 2 of your best 25 players to get only 1 back that can fill that gap didn't add up.  And yeah, I know it was all just the prospect hugging talking.

- The more I thought about it, the more I read up on Pineda and Jose Campos, and the more I talked with my guys from TYA, the better this trade started to look for New York.  Pineda is a stud, a young stud, who already has top-of-the-rotation stuff and could progress into an ace with the right coaching and development.  He's just 22 years old, stands 6'5"/240, and is coming off a first year in the Majors that saw him throw 171 innings of 3.74 ERA/3.42 FIP ball with 9.11 K/9 and 2.89 BB/9, a performance that earned him a 5th place finish in the AL ROY voting, even though he probably should have been top 3.

- An no, I'm not concerned about Pineda's flyball tendencies coming to Yankee Stadium, his home/road splits, or the fact that he faded a bit down the stretch in 2011.  He's a young pitcher; those things happen to young pitchers.  What matters is that he has dynamite stuff, a track record of success, and is still young enough to have tons of room to improve.  He's already better than any of the internal #2 starting options the Yankees had, and pairing a pitcher like him with Larry Rothschild could bring out real greatness in Pineda.

- The Yankees' position on Montero has always been that they would only move him for the right deal, and this deal last night was the perfect definition of that.  They traded from a position of great organizational strength, and traded the one prospect from that position with the most question marks surrounding his ability to play that position, to improve the position of greatest weakness at the Major League level and finally accomplish what they said was their biggest offseason goal.

- And in regards to Montero, the fact that the Yankees still didn't seem keen at all on the idea of him catching a lot of innings should have been a clue that he was still on the block.  If they really only viewed him as a DH option, then he obviously holds more value to them as a trade piece.  And with the package they got back, that's the kind of deal you include a piece like Montero in.

- I guess I can check off #5 on the Offseason To-Do List.

- The finer details of this trade are what puts Cash's stamp on this.  Throwing Noesi into the trade, a guy who despite good stuff and a solid performance last year was really just organizational depth at the moment, helps to ease some of the Mariners' sting of giving up Pineda as Noesi can move into their 2012 rotation.  And by doing that, throwing in 2 guys who had success at the Major League level last year, Cash gave himself some leverage to ask for something else in return and that turned out to be Campos, a top prospect in the Mariners' system.  Cash just doing the damn thing again!

- On Campos, yes he's very young and only has a year of Low-A ball under his belt.  But the numbers he put up there (83 K/13 BB in 81.1 IP over 14 starts) are very impressive for a 19-year-old.  And at 6'4"/195 with what's already described as an elite fastball that he commands to both sides of the plate and a developing change and curveball, the pieces are there for this kid to develop into a #1-#2-type starter.  Campos essentially slides into Jesus' spot on the Yankees' top prospects list (although not at #1), and gives them another high-ceiling pitching prospect to work with.

- If the Pineda trade didn't signal the death knell of A.J. Burnett's time in the Yankee rotation, then the Kuroda signing certainly did, and probably also for Freddy Garcia.  The Yankees add a young #2 pitcher and a guy who, even at his age and switching to the AL East, is still probably a true #3 at worst, to replace two guys who are #4 starters at best.  And I think given the age of Burnett and Garcia, it's likely that Hughes will win/get the #5 spot in this rotation and one of Burnett and Garcia will be traded while the other assumes the mop-up/longman role in the bullpen.

- If the one to be traded does turn out to be A.J., even if the Yankees just get a box of baseball cards back for him, I'm calling out of work to throw a party at my place.  You're all invited.

- Quickly on Kuroda, I like him in this role as the new #3, much more than I would have liked the Yankees signing him a month ago for $12-14 mil to be the #2.  He's got solid K rates, he limits walks, and his GB rate is good, something that will serve him well pitching in Yankee Stadium and should help alleviate any issues that come with Pineda being more of a flyball pitcher.  Kuroda gives the Yankees better depth and better talent than what they already had in the middle of their rotation, and on a one-year deal, doesn't interfere in plans to trim payroll for 2014.  As much as I wanted Roy Oswalt, Kuroda is just as solid an option.

- Another interesting subplot to this whole situation is the "Hal talking to Scott Boras" story that dominated the better part of the previous two days.  If I can go Mel Gibson in "Conspiracy Theory" for a second, I think the Yankees played Boras and used him as leverage to make this trade happen and also as a way to throw the media off their trail while they finalized the trade and the deal with Kuroda.

All we've been hearing about is how the Yankees were staying in contact with the Kurodas and Oswalts of the world and nothing about a potential Montero-for-Pineda swap.  Knowing that Boras loves to use them to drive up the market for his clients, the Yankees decide to sit down with him to discuss Edwin Jackson, also knowing that the media will pick it up and the story would work in reverse to force the Mariners to finalize the trade.  Any time the Yankees are even rumored to be involved, teams have to take that seriously, and the Yankees used that in their advantage to make the deal they wanted to make, leaving Boras and Edwin Jackson sitting there twisting in the wind.  If that plan doesn't have Cash written all over it, I don't know what does.

- When you look at what the Reds gave up to get Mat Latos and what the Nats gave up to get Gio Gonzalez, this trade looks even better for the Yankees.  They managed to add a younger, arguably better pitcher than either of those 2 guys by only giving up 1 of their top prospects, and even managed to get a top 5 prospect back in return.

- AAAAAAAAAAAAND, when you think about all the potential deals that Jesus was either involved in or requested to be in by other teams that the Yankees didn't make, this trade is genius.  Instead of getting 3+ months of Cliff Lee or 1 year of John Danks, the Yankees get 5 of Pineda.  And they get those 5 years of  Pineda with ManBan and Betances still intact.

- With the FA class that's coming up after the 2012 season, the potential for a 2013 dream rotation is scary.  Let some of those hypotheticals roll around in your brain tonight when you're out at the bar.

- The biggest bummer about losing Montero?  I didn't get to use this Photoshop nearly enough:

This was a great trade for the Yankees, and another brilliant job by Cash of laying low, working things behind the scenes, staying patient, and striking when the moment was right.  Yes, it sucks to lose out on Montero and all that he could have potentially done in a Yankee uniform, but this was the ideal return in a trade involving The Jesus, and the 2012 Yankees are better off as a result.

Which Rotation Looks Better To You?

Option 1)

1) CC
2) Nova
3) A.J.
4) Freddy
5) Hughes

Option 2)

1) CC
2) Pineda
3) Kuroda
4) Nova
5) Hughes

I mean, really!  Do you even have to think about it?  Once again, the Yankees zag when everyone thinks they're zigging.  And yes, I assume Hughes will be given the best chance to win the 5th rotation spot over A.J. and Freddy.

#InCashWeTrust

BREAKING NEWS!!!!: Yankees Trade Jesus for Michael Pineda

ESPN has it already, so it sounds legit.

The Yankees have traded Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi to the Mariners for Michael Pineda and Jose Campos.  Details to follow...

** UPDATE- 7:51PM- From looking around the interweb, this seems about as real as it gets.  Once again, the Yankees come out of nowhere to make a major move.  From what I'm gathering on Campos, he's one of the better prospects in the Mariners' system.  And he's only 19 years old. **

** UPDATE- 7:58PM- Jack Curry is reporting that the Yankees have signed Hiroki Kuroda to a 1-year, $10 million deal.  The lion has struck from the tall grass...

** UPDATE- 8:44PM- Pineda in 2011: 171 IP, 9.11 K/9, 3.74 ERA/3.42 FIP.  22 years old; under team control for 5 years.  Campos rated #5 prospect in Mariners' system by Baseball Prospectus.  K'd 85 and only walked 13 in 81.1 IP of A-ball in 2011. **

The New Mets Tickets Promotional Video Is Pretty Accurate

It's funny because it's true!  That pretty much sums up what it's like to be a Met these days.  To be perfectly honest, I think I'd rather be an abused, abandoned dog stuck in a shitty shelter than be a member of the New York Mets baseball team.  I actually wouldn't be surprised if this boosted sales simply out of pity for those poor players.  For a split second there I was reaching for my desk phone to call the number, but then I snapped back to my senses.  Damn it's good to be a Yankee fan.

Kudos to Randy Medina at The Apple for putting this together.  A+ stuff right there.

That's More Like It

Via Joel Sherman, Hal Steinbrenner, despite agreeing to meet with Scott Boras to discuss Edwin Jackson, "has yet to OK expanding payroll to add a significant player," which is music to my ears after a long, sleepless night spent tossing and turning while worrying what kind of crazy Friday the 13th shenanigans could happen today.

It's nothing against Jackson.  I'm sure he's a nice kid and would probably provide more value in the rotation this season than A.J.  But he's a Boras client, and that can be a dangerous situation, especially when your plan is to cut payroll and only look for one-year deals at the right price.  Jackson is not a one-year deal candidate and he's certainly not the type of pitcher to warrant the Yankees deviating from their plan.  Just stay the course, be patient, and listen to whatever Cash says.

I'm Not Liking This Edwin Jackson Situation One Bit

I didn't put too much weight into Jon Heyman's report last night about Hal Steinbrenner and Scott Boras meeting to discuss Edwin Jackson.  Heyman basically exists to be Boras' mouthpiece and to create markets for his clients, so no big deal.

But now that Marc Carig has the story as well, and explains that Boras requested the meeting and Steinbrenner agreed to see him, I'm really starting to get nervous.  In my FA profile on Jackson a few months back, I stated that he would be my last resort as a rotation target because of his inconsistent performance and the fact that him being 28 made it more likely that he would seek a longer-term deal.  And nothing has changed since then.  I'd still rather have Oswalt and Kuroda than Jackson, and I'd rather see the Yankees stick with the 5 they have penciled in right now than sign Jackson.

Maybe the front office is once again split on whether or not to pursue a potential target.  Maybe the Hanks and Levines of the world crave them some Edwin Jackson and are forcing this behind the scenes.  It is almost the 1-year anniversary of the Rafael Soriano, and tomorrow is Friday The 13th.  I'm just sayin'...

Triple-R: The Rotation

(The ace and the... other guy.  Courtesy of The Daily News)

The rotation to start 2012 will look an awful lot like the one we saw to open 2011, at least as of today.  That might not seem like a reason to be overly confident, but collectively this group can still be effective enough to get the job done.  Just how effective will depend on whether each pitcher Regresses from, Rebounds from, or Remains at his 2011 level of production.

CC Sabathia- Remain

It'd be downright stupid to expect anything less from CC in 2012 than what he's provided since first putting on the pinstripes.  He's still in his prime at 31, he won't turn 32 until July, he's got another fat contract in his back pocket, and he's making another attempt to shed some weight prior to the start of Spring Training.  Now the first go-round with that effort didn't pan out over the course of the 2011 season, but he still pitched incredibly well.  For as long as he's been doing this, we almost have to give CC the benefit of the doubt when it comes to him handling the type of workload he does at the size he is.  He's been the one constant in this rotation since 2009 and he'll continue to be that in 2012.  Pencil him in for another 230+ IP, ERA and FIP numbers in the high 2.00s-low 3.00s, 8.00+ K/9, 6-7 WAR, and a top 5 Cy Young finish.

Ivan Nova- Remain

Call me crazy, but I think there might be something to Super Nova's strong 2011 finish.  His velocity was up, his command was much better, and his slider developed into a very useful pitch, practically bypassing his other secondary offerings to become his out pitch by the end of the year.  Nova also made great strides in the 2nd half of last season in his ability to work through a lineup multiple times, change up his offerings, and really think his way through an outing.  He's always pitched with great poise on the mound for a young pitcher, and now he's starting to learn the finer points of pitching to refine his game.  Considering that he's only been a starter at the Major League level for a little over a year, it's reasonable to expect that he still has room to improve.  He won't become a future ace of the staff, but maintaining his pace from the 2nd half of 2011 should result in a very good year for Nova in 2012.

A.J. Burnett- Remain

As stupid as it would be to expect anything less from CC in 2012, it would be equally dumb to expect anything more from A.J.  At this stage in his career, with declining stuff and spotty command, A.J. is really a 4th starter at best making 2nd starter money.  The best thing anybody can say about him is that he provides innings, but as the quality of those innings continues to trend downward along with his fastball velocity, calls are going to start coming for the Hector Noesis and Adam Warrens of the world to get their shot.  If A.J. had a reliable 3rd pitch, perhaps he could combat the losing battle he's fighting with Father Time.  But 35 is a little too late to start working on that, especially when you're a pitcher whose biggest issue has been repeating his mechanics and delivery.  An ERA over 5.00, a FIP somewhere close to that, a lot of wild pitches, and more ill-timed HR allowed is what I'm expecting from A.J. in 2012.  But hey, at least he's consistent.

Freddy Garcia- Regress

Freddy's 2011 production was arguably the most pleasant surprise out of the entire pitching staff.  He provided stability and consistency to the rotation multiple times during the season when guys like Hughes and Bartolo hit the DL.  Unfortunately, the numbers he pitched to probably aren't sustainable for another year given his stuff and his recent track record.  He hadn't posted a sub-4.00 ERA since 2005 prior to last season, and has only put up one season with a lower HR/FB rate than the 8.2% he had in 2011.  Considering his GB rate went below 40% last year while his FB rate rose, and he isn't going to be making a huge jump in his K rates any time soon, the signs are all there that 2012 will be a year where we see more balls finding the gaps and the seats off of Freddy.  He shouldn't fall off a cliff completely, but Freddy circa 2010 is far more likely an outcome than a repeat of what he did in 2011.

Phil Hughes- Rebound

Phil's 2011 couldn't have been much worse, which makes him an obvious candidate to have a bounce-back year in 2012.  The big question is, exactly how big is that bounce back going to be?  Should we be expecting pre-2010 ASG Phil?  Post-2010 ASG Phil?  Something in between those 2 versions?  Or some version of Phil similar to the one that finished 2011?  Whatever version we get, it has to be better than the guy who posted a 5.79/4.58/4.90 slash with just 5.67 K/9 last season.  Hughes will be further removed from his heavy 2010 workload and will be back in better shape after getting shipped out to Cali, so the life in his fastball that was missing for most of last season should return.  If it does, then Phil will be set up for success as everything he does is off the fastball.  His secondary offerings and how well he commands them will determine just how big of a rebound he has in 2012, but even staying healthy and pitching a full season will be an improvement.

Because it's the same 5 guys who finished the season in the rotation last year, there shouldn't be expectations for drastic improvement.  But Nova repeating the success of his 2011 second half and Hughes coming back to be a reliable 3rd-starter type should help this group at least maintain the success that last year's rotation had.  Anything positive from A.J. is just icing on the cake at this point.

Checking In On The Offseason To-Do List

It's been almost 3 months since I moved on from the rough ending of the 2011 season and started looking towards the future with what, in my opinion, should have been the Yankees' list of offseason priorities.  How's the progress looking on that list now that they've had that 3 months?

1) Get Cash's New Deal Done- Check

The official announcement was made slightly after the details of the new CC came out, but it's safe to assume that the Yankees already had an agreement in place with Cash earlier than that.  Before they could execute any offseason action plan, they needed to have their GM, and they were wise to bring back the best man for the job.

2) Re-Sign CC- Check

Like the Cash deal, this situation was resolved very quickly by the Yankees, and in a very wise fashion.  They made CC the highest paid pitcher in the game again while still maintaining enough payroll flexibility to not have his deal weigh them down in the years to come the way A-Rod's is right now.  And they also didn't get locked into another 7-, 8-, or more-year deal for big money.  Definitely a win-win for both sides.

3) Address The Starting Pitching Situation- Check

Before they even got involved in talks with the big FAs of the year (Wilson, Darvish, Buehrle, etc.), the Yankees were quick to make decisions on all their incumbents.  Nova was declared an official part of the 2012 rotation, as was Phil, and then he was quickly shuttled off to fat camp to get in shape.  They also decided to give A.J. another vote of confidence, let Bartolo go, and re-sign Freddy.  You can argue whether some of the moves were right or wrong, but the fact that the Yanks made decisions on each player and had a rotation in place made their plan for going after FAs more clear and easier to execute.

4) Develop and Execute Offseason FA/Trade Plan- Check

And execute it they did.  It's been a lot of low bids, preliminary talks, and excessive trade demands, but the Yankees' plan was clearly to go into the Winter Meetings with a rotation in place and only get seriously involved in upgrade options if the price was right.  Money has been the name of the game as usual this offseason, only this year it's been about trying to save and conserve money rather than spend it.  Again, you can argue whether this plan by Cash and the front office was the right one, but you can't say that the Yankees didn't have a plan and didn't stick to it.  Well, at least so far they've stuck to it.

5) Define Jesus Montero's 2012 Role- Open
6) Develop Plan for A-Rod for 2012- Open

Neither of these things have been officially addressed by the team, but you have to think behind the scenes some discussions have been had.  I've already talked about the A-Rod situation at length, and whatever is going to happen with Jesus next year is handcuffed to how the Yankees choose to manage A-Rod's playing time.  But with the majority of the roster set for next season, now is the time to finalize these details so the players can prepare themselves for their roles and not have to adjust to things mid-season.

7) Fill Out The Bench And Bullpen As Needed- Half Check

This was last on the priority list, but it's something the Yankees have been quietly doing all offseason.  From bringing back Andruw Jones to signing some guys to MiL deals to adding potential bullpen arms through the Rule 5 draft, the Yankees are slowly but surely filling up the 25-man roster.  And with word coming out that asking prices are starting to come down for the remaining FAs on the market, they might not be done.

For as quiet as this offseason has seemed, the Yankees have actually done a pretty good job addressing their key needs.  They have their GM in place for the long haul, ditto their ace starting pitcher, and they have the majority of their roster set for the 2012 season.  There's still some fine tuning to be done, but the major goals of this offseason have been accomplished, and that's the important thing.

Not The Free Agent Pitcher I Had In Mind

Via Ben Nicholson-Smith: 

"Yankees maintain interest in re-signing Luis Ayala, who spent '11 season w/ NY."



That was pretty much my reaction to reading that news late last night, right down to me almost shooting my computer in horror.  Luis Ayala sucks, plain and simple.  He served a purpose last year and then all of that was ruined when Joe decided to use him in a high-leverage spot in the ALDS.  I don't need to be reminded of that every time I see Ayala take the mound again; no Yankee fan does.  Let some other team take Ayala and use the last few bullpen spots for young guys.  One of them is just keeping a place warm for Joba anyway.

Do The Yankees Really Need Another Lefty Reliever?

While this offseason has been mostly an inactive one for the Yankees, one thing they have gone after consistently is cheap pitching depth.  From re-signing Freddy Garcia to another team-friendly one-year deal to taking low-risk flyers on guys like Adam Miller, Brad Meyers, and Matt Daley, the Yankees have definitely given themselves plenty of options to choose from when it comes to filling out their Major League and Triple-A pitching staffs for 2012.  Among this smorgasbord of lower-level talent is a collection of left-handed relief pitchers (Cesar Cabral, Mike O'Conner, and Hideki Okajima) from which the Yankees will presumably look to fill the "2nd bullpen lefty" role that was left vacant in 2011 thanks to injuries suffered by the now departed Damaso Marte and the still being paid Pedro Feliciano.  But in looking at how the team, and the bullpen, will likely be constructed in 2012, is a 2nd lefty reliever something the Yankees should even be pursuing?

In quickly constructing the roster, we know there will be the starting 9 (Teix, Bobinson, A-Rod, Jeter, Martin, Gardner, C-Grand, Swish, and The Jesus) and the 5-man rotation (CC, A.J., Nova, Freddy, Hughes).  The bench will include Andruw Jones as the 4th OF, Eduardo Nunez as the backup SS/3B, and almost certainly Francisco Cervelli as the 3rd catcher.  In the bullpen, the no-doubt crew includes Mo, D-Rob, Soriano, Boone Logan, and Cory Wade to start the season, which adds up to 22 spots already accounted for.  The team will likely need another utility option on the bench, so someone like Ramiro Pena or Brandon Laird will fill that role for the 23rd spot, and the bullpen as it is has no solid long relief option, so pencil in somebody from the Kontos/Meyers/D.J. Mitchell trio for that role and the 24th roster spot.

This leaves only 1 spot open on the roster and a slew of players who could fill that spot.  This is where the issue of "need vs. want" as it relates to another lefty reliever comes into play.  The Yankees took the approach of deciding they needed another lefty in 2011, hence the signing of Feliciano, and it ended up backfiring on them when he missed the whole season.  But in terms of how that loss affected the bullpen's performance against lefties, the argument could be made that they were just as well off without Feliciano.  Boone Logan, for as much crap as he took around the blogosphere last year, wasn't completely useless against left-handed hitters:

- 27.1 IP, 38 Total Baserunners Allowed, 34 K, 2.96 ERA/3.65 FIP/3.12 xFIP

It was a down year for Logan, sure, especially when you look at all the baserunners.  And he wasn't nearly as effective in his LOOGY role as he was in 2010.  But when you add his 2011 in with his career totals against lefties, you get a very respectable 3.07/3.39/3.32 tripleslash with 10.13 K/9 in 114.2 IP.  It's not lights out by any means, but the strikeout numbers suggest the stuff is there to be that kind of pitcher, and the results from 2010 prove that Logan is capable of being that type of pitcher.  And with Logan typically being used in the 6th-7th innings of games, another lefty option would really only be necessary if the Yankees' setup man and closer struggled against left-handed hitting.  Do they?  Not exactly.

- D-Rob vs. LHH 2011: 35.2 IP, 38 BA, 54 K, 1.01 ERA/1.37 FIP/1.90 xFIP
- Mo vs. LHH in 2011: 27.2 IP, 28 BA, 24 K, 1.63 ERA/2.66 FIP/2.90 xFIP

- D-Rob vs. LHH career: 95.0 IP, 2.75/2.47/2.77, 12.98 K/9
- Mo vs. LHH career **: 341.1 IP, 1.61/2.49/2.87, 7.88 K/9

** (FanGraphs only keeps "vs. L" pitching stats from 2002 on)

Unfortunately, FanGraphs doesn't keep stats on how many lefty bats Mo has turned into kindling in his career, but you get the idea.  The combination of D-Rob and Mo has been very good against lefties, just as they have overall throughout their careers.  It would be asinine for Joe to even consider playing a L/R matchup game with these guys late in games.  Once Joba returns, the Yankees will have another late-inning arm capable of pitching well against lefties (3.93/3.82/3.85, 9.38 K/9 in 188.0 career IP as a starter & reliever), so the need for another lefty option becomes minimized even more.

I hate to break it down to such basic black and white terms and reference predetermined bullpen roles, but Joe already manages the bullpen that way, and because of that the Yankees are in a position where they don't really need another left-handed reliever.  They're looking for 5-6 good innings from their starting pitcher (more if it's CC), and then just a 1-2-inning bridge to Robertson and The Sandman for the 8th and 9th.  Boone Logan in his current semi-LOOGY role fits into that bridge perfectly and can continue to be used this way as an insurance policy for Soriano, who does have a shaky history against lefties (4.80/5.36/5.05 in 2011; 3.50/4.10/4.16 career).  The re-introduction of Joba to the 'pen in mid-2012 will only add to that bridge inning depth, and once D-Rob and Mo enter the game, all talk of matching up goes out the window because of their ability to shut down hitters from either side of the plate.

Like last year, a second lefty in the bullpen would be a nice convenience to have, but it's definitely not something the Yankees need in order for their relief corps to be successful.  A better use for that 25th roster spot would be to add another multiple-inning arm or a Chris Dickerson/Justin Maxwell type to lengthen the bench.  And given their track records, there's not much to suggest that Cabral, O'Conner, or Okajima would be more effective against left-handed hitters than the relievers the Yankees already have.  That's not to say that if one of these guys pitches well enough to earn a spot on merit out of Spring Training that the Yankees shouldn't take them.  But Joe is already a bit too married to the idea of set roles for guys in his bullpen.  There's no reason to take another lefty just for the sake of having another lefty and give him another option for a role that isn't needed.

Rough Day For Former Yankees In HOF Voting

Barry Larkin being the only player elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame was the big story yesterday.  The smaller ones, and the ones more pertinent to this blog, were the results of 2 former Yankees on the ballot.  And they weren't good.

Donnie Baseball had another weak showing, garnering just 17.8% of the vote.  It was up from his vote total last year but still nowhere near what he'll need to get elected.  And in his 12th year of eligibility, it's unlikely that we'll see Mattingly get the call unless the Veteran's Committee is feeling generous in the future.

Bernie Williams also didn't fare that well, picking up just 9.6% of the votes in his first year on the ballot.  The one bit of good news for Bernie is that he's the only first-year player who earned enough votes to stay on the ballot next year.  That bad news?  Voters don't take into account one's music career.

Truth be told, I never really gave Bernie much thought when it came to HOF contention.  His overall body of work doesn't scream Hall of Famer, but when you dig into the numbers, his peak years are pretty damn good.  From 1996-2002, Bernie posted 5 consecutive ASG selections ('97-'01), 4 consecutive Gold Gloves ('97-2000), a Silver Slugger Award ('02), and a batting title ('98).  His lack of top 5 MVP votes probably hurts his cause, but the 4 rings and postseason numbers should help to counter that.  Based off of his 9.6% this year, Bernie is the longest of longshots to make it in.  But based off his resume, a case can certainly be made.

An All-Jorge Linkapalooza

As I did with Andy Pettitte when he retired, here's a collection of the best stuff around related to Jorge's retirement.

- I know I linked to it in my own post this morning, but Buster Olney's piece on Jorge's career and his numbers is a must-read.

- The NY Times has a photographic look at Jorge's Yankee career.

- Tom Verducci's piece for SI does a good job of making a case for Jorge's inclusion in the HOF.

- At The Daily News, Bill Madden, if you're into that kind of thing, argues that Jorge's HOF case should be strengthened by the fact that he spent his entire career with one team.

- Kevin Kernan at The Post has a short, heartfelt piece on how Jorge deciding to hang them up was the right call.

- Mike at RAB takes a great trip down memory lane as he reviews "The Jorge Posada Game" against the Rangers on May 16, 2006.  Either this or the ALCS double is Jorge's defining moment, so check this one out if you're not familiar.

** UPDATE- 1/10/12- 7:38AM- Jack Curry at YES has another great piece on Jorge, this one taking a bigger look at Jorge the person. **

On Jorge's Retirement

Truth be told, I didn't really know how to approach writing about Jorge Posada's retirement, which, while not officially announced by Jorge himself, can be assumed to be impending after legit Yankee sources like Sweeny Murti and Buster Olney first reported the story this weekend.  Jorge was never one of my favorite players as I grew up and became a real baseball fan, even as he proved time and time again to be one of the most valuable members of the dynasty that started in the late 90s.  Even within the Core Four, Jorge ranks 4th in my hierarchy, well behind Andy Pettitte at 3.  In fact, I had grown to dislike Jorge over the past couple seasons as he became more of a detriment than a strength behind the plate and devolved to a platoon-type, left-handed only hitter at the plate.

I was especially critical of Jorge this past season when he threw his temper tantrum and took himself out of the lineup against the Fraud Sawx after Joe batted him 9th, disgusted that he could let his personal pride get in the way of his duty as a teammate and professional.  But in looking back at Jorge's career, it is that pride and attitude that I think carried him to the success he had as a player, and it is that pride and attitude that will define his career, for the better, as a great baseball player and a great Yankee.  He was never the biggest, strongest, fastest, tooliest, anything-iest player on the field, and yet he got so much out of what he did have and brought so much more to the table because of what he had inside.  That, more than anything, is the mark of a truly great player and the defining characteristic of Jorge's career.

In looking back at his career and trying to define his greatness, the first question that will come up is whether or not Jorge is worthy of making the Hall of Fame.  His standard stat line paints a very strong picture: .273/.374/.474, .848 OPS, .366 wOBA, 275 HR, 1,065 RBI, 47.6 fWAR.  You throw in the 5 ASG selections, 5 Silver Slugger Awards, and 4 World Series rings and Jorge's case becomes even stronger.  He ranks top 10 all time amongst catchers in doubles (7th), HR (8th), and XBH (9th, and is 11th in RBI.  Coincidentally, he also holds the same spots in those categories in the all-time Yankee rankings, along with the 3rd-highest WAR for Yankee catchers behind only Bill Dickey and Yogi Berra and the 8th most Games Player in franchise history.

Where the issue becomes cloudy is in the comparisons.  Putting Jorge up against the greatest catchers of all time and his numbers don't appear as sparkling (12th out of the top 12 in terms of WAR for players who played at least 50% of their games at catcher).  This is likely due to Jorge's negative defensive ratings, which hurts his candidacy in that they show him as an average all-around catcher, but also could help in that him still ranking amongst the tops all time despite the poor D shows just how good his bat was.  But when compared to his contemporaries (all catchers who have debuted in the past 25 years), Posada ranks 3rd in total WAR, behind only Mike Piazza and Ivan Rodriguez, 2 surefire HOFers.  Furthering the contemporary argument is the fact that Jorge leads all catchers in hits, home runs, and RBI since 2000 and is the only catcher ever to ever hit over .330 with 20+ HR, 40+ 2B, and 90+ RBI in a single season.  However you look at it, Jorge is right on the edge of the HOF line.

But HOF or no HOF, there is no denying the value and strength that Jorge brought to the Yankees in his 17 years in pinstripes.  He was the vocal, fiery behind-the-scenes leader that balanced out the cool, calm, and collected public captain's role that Derek Jeter has played for so many years.  He was the first to stand up for teammates on the field, the first to talk to reporters off the field, and event though he looked like he was hauling a stainless steel refrigerator on his back when he ran, he was always hustling when he stepped between the chalk lines and took the field.  More than any other player, Jorge might define just what made that late-90s Yankee dynasty so special.  He worked hard, got the most out of his talent, never tried to do too much, and stepped up in the biggest moments when his teammates needed him to.  That's what people should remember Jorge by, and judging by the reaction he got all season long from the Yankee faithful, that's how he will be remembered.

If I had to pick, I would have to say my favorite Jorge moment was the game-tying double off of Pedro in Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS.  With everything surrounding that situation and the fact that he came through off a pitcher who absolutely owned him, that's a moment I will never forget as a Yankee fan.  The look of sheer joy and still lingering focus and intensity on his face as he turned around to celebrate with his teammates in the dugout is an everlasting image in any real Yankee fan's head, and probably the perfect image to capture just what Jorge was about as a baseball player.

So even though he wasn't my favorite Yankee and never will be, and even though I admittedly soured on him over these last few seasons, I am going to miss Jorge Posada.  By whatever definition you want to use, he represented what being a "true Yankee" was all about, and it was fitting that he got to go out on his terms and on a personal high note this past postseason as one of the few Yankee hitters who actually performed well in the ALDS.  I'm glad he chose to go out on that note and to go out as a Yankee, and I'm looking forward to the day when his #20 is retired amongst the other great Yankee numbers where it belongs.

(Stats and rankings courtesy of Buster Olney at ESPN)

It's Getting Closer...

I know we're still a while away from real baseball, but Spring Training is coming.  No really, I'm being serious.  We're just a little over 5 weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting.  And that's a good thing, because I'm getting a little tired of writing about the nothing that the Yankees are doing this offseason, as I'm sure you're getting tired of reading about it.  Just keep clicking the days off that calendar, people.  Baseball will be here sooner than you think...



P.S.- That song needs an updated version showing the 2010-2011 players.  Somebody get on that, please.

Jorge To Retire

According to Sweeny Murti, via Twitter:

"Jorge Posada will announce his retirement within the next two weeks, per source."

Can't say this would surprise me.  There really hadn't been much talk of teams interested in Jorge.  Now we can just stay tuned for the official announcement.

** UPDATE- 3:51PM- ESPN has the story as well.  That source works fast. **

How Are Things Going Over At Citi Field This Offseason?

I haven't talked about the Mets in a few months.  What with the Yankees' offseason being so enthralling, I guess I kind of forgot about their little brothers on the other side of town.  But surely, something new and exciting must be going on with that organization that will get their fans stoked for the 2012 season, right?

"The Mets said in a statement Thursday that they had hired CRG Partners, a firm known as a turnaround specialist and bankruptcy consultant, to provide 'services in connection with financial reporting and budgeting processes."

Oh.  Well I guess that's a good thing.  Maybe that means things are starting to turn around for them, right?

"The Mets are certainly under considerable financial pressure.  They lost $70 million last season.  They owe more than $400 million to a group of banks; $40 million to Bank of America; and $25 million to Major League Baseball that is past due."

Yeesh.  That kinda sucks.  But on the positive side, at least Fred Wilpon can check off the last thing on his team's offseason to-do list:

1) Re-design the field dimensions to better fit the mediocre skill set of the team.
2) Make no attempt to better the team at all through free agency or the trade market.
3) Allow the team's best player to walk in free agency without even making an offer just a few months after you could have traded him for valuable prospects.
4) Reduce ticket prices in a last ditch effort to get whatever is left of your rapidly-dwindling fanbase to come back to the stadium in 2012.
5) Hire a well-known firm to help you manage your impending bankruptcy.

That's a hell of an offseason right there if you ask me.  As I stated last night on the AB4AR Facebook page, as a Yankee fan it's always good to know I have the Mets around to put things in perspective for me.  The Yankees are trying to cut costs for 2014 by not throwing huge chunks of money at Yu Darvish or Mark Buehrle; the Mets aren't even making an attempt to sign Jose Reyes.  The Yankees couldn't make a deal with a Japanese player to fill a backup infield role; the Mets are going bankrupt.

(Quotes courtesy of The New York Times)

Friday Afternoon Sick Day Linkapalooza

My annual cold that didn't come in 2011 decided to grace me with its presence over the past 36 hours, so I left work early to spare my co-workers from my gross congestion.  With no job to do this afternoon, this seems like the perfect time to take another spin around the Yankosphere.  Join me, won't you?

- First up, a pair from RAB.  Joe Paw looked at the current 40-man situation earlier in the week and tried to figure out who would be the next to go to make room.  At least not signing Nakajima makes that situation a little more clear.

- Today, Larry Koestler crunched the numbers on the A-Rod contract to find out just how much he's being overpaid right now.  It's not pretty when you get to the end of it, but definitely an interesting read.

- Speaking of The Horse, Rasheeda Cooper at Bomber Boulevard was in the mood to talk about him earlier in the week and she's very optimistic about his chances for a bounce back 2012.  I can't say I'm quite as optimistic as Rasheeda, but when your post is titled "Let's Talk About A-Rod," you're speaking my language.

- Delia E. over at Yankees Fans Unite is already looking for improvements in 2012, and names her 6 Yankees that need to do just that.  Love the inclusion of Girardi on that list.

- Over at Pinstripe Alley, Brandon C. has gotten over the harsh pain of losing out on Nakajima and is already looking for possible replacement utility options.  I have to admit, I never would have considered Willie Harris, but I could see that working.

- Brien at IIATMS discusses the value that Ian Kennedy still brings to the Yankees, even though he's no longer in the organization at a time when they could use another quality starter.

- Michael Eder, one of the new additions to the TYA team, gives us some reason to be optimistic about Phil Hughes in 2012 by examining the link between his fastball velocity and his FIP values.  If Phil can get the heater back up to where it was in '09, that could go a long way to strengthening the rotation.  Not bad for a debut post.

Zambrano Trade Hurts Yankees' Chances Of Trading A.J.

There hasn't been a whole lot of A.J. trade chatter lately, although that may be an option that the Yankees are still open to and even pursuing behind the scenes.  But with the Cubs moving Carlos Zambrano to the Marlins last night, and eating a hefty chunk of his remaining salary in the process, the likelihood that the Yankees actually move A.J. now is slim to none.

The Yankees opening bid for what they were willing to pick up on A.J.'s remaining salary was $8 million.  That's a decent chunk, but still not nearly enough out of the $33 mil that he's owed for teams to be willing to take him off Cash's hands.  For the sake of comparison, the Cubs are picking up $15.5 mil of Zambrano's remaining 18, or 86.11%.  That same percentage of the balance of A.J.'s contract would be $28.42 million, a figure much too rich for the Yankees' cost-saving blood.  For that kind of money, they might as well keep him on the team and pay him to at least eat innings.

Then there's the pesky little 2nd year still remaining on A.J.'s contract.  Zambrano, psychotic as he is, represents a smaller risk for the Marlins because if he goes off the reservation again, at least they know they're done with him after the season.  Any team willing to take on A.J., regardless of what the Yankees agree to pick up money-wise, is stuck with him for another year.  And with the way he's pitched, that's not an ideal situation to be in.

A.J. being traded was probably never actually going to happen, although I would have been the first one to celebrate and suggest a parade through the Canyon of Heroes if it did.  But with the precedent set by the Zambrano trade yesterday, any slight chance that something could be done was definitely killed.  And that means we can all really start to prepare ourselves for another season of this guy:

Triple-R: The Outfield

(One for all and all for one.  Courtesy of The Daily News)

The Yankee outfield trio of C-Grand, Swish, and Gardy slowly started to establish themselves as one of the best all-around outfields in baseball in 2010, especially after Curtis got the Dr. Long treatment on his swing in the second half.  In 2011, that trend continued in a big way thanks to Curtis' monster year, and it's now a fair statement to say that the Yankee outfield is among the top 3 in baseball, top 5 on its worst day.  So what should we be looking for in 2012?

Brett Gardner, LF- Remain

I know Gardner's numbers were down a bit across the board in 2011, but a lot of that can be attributed to his horrific start.  And despite my continued pleas for him to work with Kevin Long to try to develop a little more leg drive and power to his swing to put balls in the gaps more often and make his speed on the basepaths an even bigger weapon, that doesn't seem like it's going to happen.  So we're left with the Brett Gardner that we've seen over the past few seasons, a lightning-quick slap hitter who generates most of his value with his elite-level range and defensive skills, and in this lineup that's just fine.  Gardner should see a little more time hitting leadoff against righties in 2012, but I think it's safe to say that another season around .260/.360/.370 with a .340 wOBA is in the cards.

Curtis Granderson, CF- Regress

C-Grand's situation is a bit tricky.  I don't see his 2012 being a true regression in the sense that he'll drop back down to the levels of early 2010 or worse, but rather a decrease in the power output he had in 2011.  I've talked before about how Curtis improving his approach at the plate and being more selective should help him repeat his performance, and I believe that it will.  But I don't see the HR totals being sustainable this season and the net loss from that should result in a slight regression from his 2011 numbers, not that having a slight regression from a career year is a bad thing.  When you consider his defensive inadequacies, at least as they're measured by most sabermetric defensive ratings, and the fact that he'll hit the 30-year-old plateau before the beginning of the season, there's the possibility of some decline beginning in that department as well.  I don't expect it to be much, and I still expect him to put up All Star-caliber numbers again, but do believe C-Grand will experience a slight regression in 2012.

Nick Swisher, RF- Remain

Swish is another interesting case when it comes to picking one of the Rs for him.  In 2010, Swish abandoned his traditional "work the count and draw walks" approach after working with the esteemed Dr. Long in the offseason for a more swing-happy tactic that produced very good results (.377 wOBA).  This past season, he got back to his pitch-taking roots, boosting his BB rate back up to 15.0% from a career-low 9.1% in 2010 and sacrificing some hits and power as a result.  He still finished with very good numbers (.358 wOBA), comparable to his 2010 season in many categories, and his final 3.8 WAR was not far off from the 4.1 he had in 2010.  I see him finding a balance between his approaches from the past 2 seasons in 2012 and so I believe we'll see production from Swish similar to what he's already done, with a line somewhere in the .270/.370/.470, .360wOBA range.  You could make the "playing for a contract" case for Swish, but at 31 he's a little beyond the age where he can have a career year, and that line I just suggested will still get him a damn good contract from somebody.

Winning!

Hipster Horse is the fucking man!  Goddamn plasma therapy must have worked like a motherfucker to produce that much swag.

Oh, and hanging out with Torrie Wilson?  That's baller shit.  Right, JR?



Good God almighty, indeed!

Photo courtesy of With Leather

AB4AR Top 30 Yankee Prospects Recap

In case you missed any of it over the last week, here's the full and complete breakdown of  the AB4AR Top 30 Prospects in one convenient, easy-to-use list: 

1) Jesus Montero
2) Manny Banuelos
3) Dellin Betances
4) Austin Romine
5) Gary Sanchez
6) Mason Williams
7) Adam Warren
8) David Phelps
9) J.R. Murphy
10) Slade Heathcott
11) Brett Marshall
12) D.J. Mitchell
13) Corban Joseph
14) Graham Stoneburner
15) Brandon Laird
16) Ramon Flores
17) Rob Segedin
18) Bryan Mitchell
19) Dante Bichette Jr.
20) Zoilo Almonte
21) Cito Culver
22) David Adams
23) Ravel Santana
24) George Kontos
25) Mark Montgomery
26) Nik Turley
27) Tommy Kahnle
28) Kyle Roller
29) Branden Pinder
30) Tyler Austin

Click the links to check out each individual player report:

Spots 30-26

Spots 25-21

Spots 20-16

Spots 15-11

Spots 10-6

Spots 5-1

Happy Belated To A.J.

I don't know how I could have missed this yesterday, with A.J. being such a vital part of the Yankee team and having a long history of success and big moments in pinstripes, but yesterday was A.J. Burnett's 35th birthday.  So on behalf of myself and anybody else out there who might have let this important date in Yankee history slip his or her mind, happy belated birthday, A.J.!  Hopefully you got some command of your fastball this year.

P.S.- There might be no better person in the world to forget a birthday for than A.J. Burnett.

AB4AR Top 30 Yankee Prospects: 5-1

5) Gary Sanchez- C- Low-A Charleston

With a certain son of the Lord poised to make his full-season Major League debut in 2012, the new "next big thing" catcher in the Yankee system will be Gary Sanchez.  Sanchez is still a baby at 19, but already has 2 very productive MiL seasons under his belt.  After punishing the GCL and more than holding his own as an 18-year-old in 2010, Sanchez received a promotion to Low-A Charleston in 2011 and after a very slow start rebounded to finish with a very good .256/.335/.485 tripleslash, 34 XBH (including 17 HR), 52 RBI, and a .364 wOBA.  His season was not without some controversy, though, as Sanchez was sent down to Extended Spring Training for a short time because of "attitude problems," and there are plenty of questions about his prospects of remaining a catcher moving forward.

Sanchez is a top prospect because of his bat, there's no doubt there.  He already possesses well above-average power and can put the ball all over the field.  His K rate is still a bit high (27.1% this past year), but when you remember the age you can live with it.  Sanchez does offset that a bit with some good plate discipline; his 10.5% BB rate in 2011 was a new career high.  But it will be his ability to improve behind the plate that will determine how hot a prospect Sanchez becomes as he moves to the upper levels.  At 6'2"/195 he is already a big body and could get bigger as he matures.  His defensive skills were questionable at best to start 2011 and he didn't get nearly the positive reviews that J.R. Murphy did in reports about his progress.  And while I'd like to rank Sanchez higher because of his potential ceiling as a hitter, I think the concerns about his character are something worth holding against him.  Young or not, it's not consistent to criticize Slade Heathcott about his character issues when all signs point to him being a dedicated player on the field, and then not address similar issues with Sanchez when his are on-field-related.  I think Sanchez gets the jump to High-A to start 2012 to see how he handles the the next level, and if he's improved his defensive abilities and his attitude, he could be the new #1 prospect this time next year.

4) Austin Romine- C- Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre

Despite a down year for him in 2011, I still ranked Romine ahead of Sanchez because he's much closer to becoming a Major Leaguer and even got a taste of that life in 2011.  Romine stumbled out of the blocks a bit in 2011 for Trenton and never fully recovered, but still finished with a respectable .286/.351/.378 line and a .332 wOBA for the Thunder in 373 PA.  At the end of the season, Romine was shuffled up to Triple-A to fill a gap and then spent some time in September as the backup to Russell Martin after Francisco Cervelli went down.  He only got 20 PA there, but did get the chance to show off his skill set and put himself in line for a possible backup role again this year.

Romine isn't as flashy as the other Yankee catching prospects with his bat, but may be the best defensively, even if there are mixed reports out there as to just how good he is behind the plate.  Romine is 6'1"/195, and a right-handed hitter who has always had the reputation of having just enough power and general hitting skills to get by.  Baseball America still projects him as a possible .270, 10-15 HR guy at the Major League level, which is enough to get you All Star consideration these days, but his lack of power in 2011 was a bit of a concern (.092 ISO in Double-A).  He'll also have to tighten up his approach at the plate to be successful as a hitter at the upper levels, but the tools are all still there.  With 2011 being the down year that it was for Romine, I expect the Yankees to start him off in Triple-A again in 2012 to see how his skills have progressed.  If he shows enough, it might signal that he's ready to be the "real" backup to Martin and inspire the Yankees to move Cervelli.

3) Dellin Betances- RHP- Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre

The bigger, and potentially better, of the 2 remaining Killer Bs, Dellin Betances continued his march to the Majors in 2011, even if that march included a few missteps and some potholes here and there.  After having a big breakout season in 2010 (2.19 FIP, 11.4 K/9, 2.32 BB/9 in 85.1 combined IP), Betances was on the radar as having an outside shot to make the show in 2011 if he continued to show that form.  Unfortunately, his command regressed back to its usual inconsistent level (4.99 BB/9 in 126.1 total IP), but the stuff and strikeouts were still there and Betances earned a late-season promotion to Triple-A after making 21 starts for Trenton and posting a 3.42/3.70 ERA/FIP split.  He's still a work in progress at 23, but the sky is still the limit for Betances because of the talent he possesses.

Betances' biggest strength and weakness is probably his size.  He stands 6'8" and 245 pounds, an intimidating presence on the hill to even the most badass of guys, and uses that size and length to throw the ball right by hitters.  But his height also gives him problems with repeating his delivery, and as a result his location and command of his electric stuff is usually hit or miss.  And to call his stuff electric is not an overstatement.  He's got his fastball back up to 95-98 MPH range as he's gotten further away from elbow surgery, and his power curve is damn near unhittable when he locates it.  Betances is also working on a changeup, but that pitch is nowhere near the levels of the other 2.  Along with the delivery/command issues, Betances is still learning how to effectively utilize all his pitches, something that I can give him a pass on because of all the time he's missed with injuries.  He'll begin the 2012 season in the Triple-A rotation and will be watched very closely as a potential mid-to-late-season call up for the Yankees.  His ability of lack thereof to harness his stuff will determine whether that comes in a starting or relief role.

2) Manny Banuelos- LHP- Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre

Manny Banuelos is kind of the polished yang to Betances' erratic yin as the other half of the Killer Bs.  And for that, he is considered to be the top Yankee pitching prospect across the board.  Banuelos has had a reputation as a pitcher advanced beyond his years almost since he was introduced into the Yankee system in '08, and expectations were high for him in 2011 after also reaching Double-A with impressive peripherals as a 19-year-old in 2010.  But like Betances, Banuelos struggled with his command in 2011, both at Trenton and in his 7 late-season starts for SWB.  The stuff was definitely still there as ManBan racked up 125 Ks in 129.2 combined innings at both levels, but the increased BB rate (almost 5.00/9 IP) did temper the buzz on him just a bit.  That aside, ManBan is still looked at as a potential ace in the making and should be.

ManBan isn't nearly as physically imposing as Betances.  In fact, he's not imposing at all at 5'10"/170.  But what he lacks in stature he more than makes up for with a great combination of stuff, great composure on the mound, and a knack for pitching that almost nobody has at age 20.  Manny's fastball has improved over the past year or so, and he can now throw it regularly in the low-to-mid 90s, his changeup can fool the best hitters in the world, and his curveball is rapidly becoming a plus-level offering.  And when that combination is coming at you from the left side, you're in for a bad time as a hitter.  The Yankees have a storied history of great lefty pitchers and Banuelos is poised to become the next on the list.  He's already made his way to the highest MiL level in 3+ seasons, and could step in and pitch in the Yankee rotation this year if he had to.  With guys like Phelps and Warren around, though, the Yankees don't have to rush him and likely won't.  In a perfect world, ManBan will spend the entire 2012 season in Triple-A, working on refining his command and building up his innings totals.  But if there are major rotation issues in the Bronx, he could be a "lightning in a bottle" option for the Yankees to consider.

And now, the first ever AB4AR #1 Yankee prospect...

/drumroll

Introducing The Triple-R Game: The Infield

The calendar has turned, and with that we move further away from the Winter Meetings, the Rule 5 Draft, and the meat and potatoes of the Hot Stove Season, and closer to the hors d'oeuvres of the real baseball season, that being pitchers and catchers reporting.  With the Yankees remaining mostly inactive through this offseason, it's very likely that the team as it's constructed now is how we're going to see the Yankees open the 2012 season.  If you haven't already started to come to terms with that fact, now would be a good time to start.  If you have, then you're probably already starting to think about what kind of team it's going to be this coming season, which is only natural and a much better way of spending your time at the office.  In looking at everybody's 2011 stats and trying to anticipate how they'll perform in 2012, there are really only 3 things a player can do:  Regress, Rebound, or Remain where they are.  Most projections are already out on the Yankee hitters and pitchers for 2012, but rather than try to pinpoint exactly what each player is going to do, I just want to set the bar for them by predicting which of the 3 R categories they best fit under.  Today, we'll start with the infield.

Mark Teixeira, 1B- Rebound

By now we're all well aware of how bad Teixeira was from the left side of the plate in 2011, and what's more important is that he was aware of it and made fixing his left-side struggles a priority this offseason.  Teix isn't that far removed from being a .300/.400/.550 hitter and is still just 32 years old, so he's not running on fumes yet.  He may not leap back up to those levels in 2012, but solving his lefty problems should help boost his numbers above his 2011 totals, especially the .248 batting average, and make him the dangerous all-around hitter he's been.

Robinson Cano, 2B- Remain

A lot of people called for a dropoff in production from the best second baseman in baseball after his monster 2010 campaign, and all he did last season was come out and nearly replicate it.  There should be no more doubting Cano anymore at this point as he's in the prime of his career and he's one of the best hitters in baseball.  Some slight improvements could be made in his BB rate and defense, but to expect anything less than what he's done in the last 2 seasons would be silly.

Alex Rodriguez, 3B- Rebound

Maybe I'm just being too optimistic here because of the blood plasma procedure, but I think A-Rod bounces back some in 2012.  Declining or not, the guy is due for some good health sooner or later, and if he gets it he's shown that he's still capable of being an above-average hitter when healthy.  It's going to take some smart management of his playing time by Joe, but 130 games of A-Rod in 2012 should lead to better all-around production than what he provided in 2011.

Derek Jeter, SS- Regress

Watching Jeter find the fountain of youth after coming off the DL last year was fun, but the sobering reality is that Jeter will turn another year older in 2012.  And 37-year-olds turning 38 in the middle of the season don't typically maintain the .327/.383/.428 pace that Jeter was on post-All Star break.  I'd like to think that whatever Jeter did to help him return to form last year will help him from dropping back down to his late 2010-early 2011 levels, but a dip in production from his final .332 wOBA in 2011 should be expected.

Russell Martin, C- Rebound

Call me crazy here, but I think Russell Martin can have a 2012 that's better than his 2011.  Last year it seemed like he was either on fire or standing at the plate without a bat even in his hand, and his final line of .237/.324/.408 leaves room for improvement.  This year he won't be adjusting to a new stadium, new teammates, new pitchers in a new league, and I think that should help smooth out some of the ups and downs in his production.  A few less bumps and bruises suffered behind the plate should help too, so hopefully the Yanks don't shy away from letting Jesus spell Martin regularly.

So what about you, Yankosphere?  What are you anticipating from the pinstriped infield in 2012?

Yankee Apparently Trying To Date Hiroyuki Nakajima

Which is weird, because I could have sworn they posted a fee to win negotiating rights so they could sign him to play for their baseball team.  But according to Cash, the 2 sides are "still just talking."  They have until Friday to come to an agreement, and so far there's no word on whether or not "still talking" means that the Yanks are going steady with Nakajima, if they're just friends, or if they actually want to add him as a utility infielder.