Free Agent Target: Masahiro Tanaka

(Courtesy of the AP)

While I did declare earlier that this post was to be the first AB4AR free agent profile piece of the offseason, the truth is I cheated that a bit.  The real first FA post was last week's profile on Korea pitcher Suk-Min Yoon, the premiere free agent pitcher coming out of Korea this offseason.  There's a similar premiere pitcher coming out of the Japanese NPB league this offseason, a pitcher universally regarded as a much better MLB pro prospect than Yoon.  His name is Masahiro Tanaka and if you haven't heard of him you haven't been paying attention to baseball that closely at all this year.

Like Yu Darvish before him, Tanaka is expected to be the most sought after free agent pitcher whenever he is made available through the modified NPB posting system this offseason.  The latest reports on the anticipated posting fee amount make it sound like $75-100 million could be the highest bid, which would smash the previous record of $51.7 million, the amount the Rangers paid to win the bidding for Darvish.  For that kind of money, teams should be expecting to get a pitcher at least as good, if not better, than Darvish.  Based on some scouting reports, Tanaka has the ability to be that kind of pitcher, the type of young, high-ceiling arm the Yankees desperately need in their rotation.

Listed at 6'2"/205, Tanaka has been one of the best pitchers in the NPB for the last few seasons and was unquestionably the best in 2013, when he went 24-0 with a 1.27 ERA in 212.0 IP over 28 regular season starts.  He struck out 183 batters in those 212 innings (7.8 K/9) and walked only 32 (1.4 BB/9) while setting the new Japanese pro record for most consecutive victories.  Having just recently turned 25, Tanaka has pitched in the NPB since 2007 and owns a career stat line of 99-35, 2.30 ERA, 8.5 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, and 53 complete games in 172 career starts.  His command of his stuff has improved as he's gotten older, evidenced by decreasing BB and HR rates over this last 4 NPB seasons compared to his first 3.

That stuff, while not as off-the-charts dynamic as Darvish's, is plenty good enough to be a top-flight MLB starter.  Tanaka works primarily off of a 4-seam fastball that lives low 90s and can touch 95-96 and his primary offspeed pitches are a mid-80s splitter and a low-to-mid 80s slider.  While scouting reports differ on the effectives of his fastball, the general consensus on both his offspeed pitches is that they are above-average at worst and plus out pitches at best.  Tanaka has drawn praise from multiple scouts for his pitching approach, an aggressive one built around pounding the strike zone to set up his swing-and-miss pitches that makes up for what he lacks in dazzling stuff.

Despite having plenty of big game experience as a starter in the NPB and the statistical results to support his status as the premiere starting pitcher on the market, Tanaka is not without his problem areas.  He's had some trouble with shoulder problems in the past.  It's never been anything serious enough to require surgery or extended missed time, but Tanaka has only pitched more than 190 innings twice in a season (this year and 2011).  Those injury concerns have also limited him to almost exclusively relief work in his international tournament experience.  With these injuries cropping up in the Japanese leagues where starters usually only pitch once a week, there's legitimate concern about how his shoulder and body would respond to the different pitching workload schedule in MLB.

Those concerns might have been enough to scare the Yankees off based on past performance of other big name Japanese pitchers, but they've been closely connected to Tanaka since the start of this season and have scouted him more than any other MLB team.  Assistant GM Billy Eppler and team scout Don Wakamatsu were on hand to watch Tanaka's starts in late August, and the Yankees have reportedly seen every one of Tanaka's start this season.  If any team out there has a better scouting report and better knowledge of Tanaka's strengths and weaknesses than the Yankees, I'd love to see it.  They've certainly done their homework on him, possibly learning a lesson from their lack of homework on Kei Igawa, and appear primed to be the leading MLB candidate to land him when he is posted.

The feelings about Tanaka have improved over the course of the season and there are some scouts who think he could be better than Darvish.  That trend has led to the reports of the record high posting fee possibility, but the value of Tanaka's actual contract will probably not exceed what Darvish got (6 years/$56 million) by much, if it exceeds it at all.  With the posting fee not counting towards the luxury tax and the possibility of adding a #2 starter in his mid-20s for $10 mil per year on the table, it's obvious why Tanaka is a high priority for the Yankees this offseason.   He's exactly the type of pitching prospect that the Yankees have failed to develop internally in recent years and would conceivably be a great addition to the 2014 rotation and future rotations if he were to sign with the Yanks.