2013 Season Review: What We Thought We Knew & What We Learned (The Outfield)

(Never got enough of these 3 together.  Courtesy of Reuters)

After a few years of familiar faces and familiar expectations, the Yankees shook things up in their outfield for 2013.  Gone was Nick Swisher, the plus-offense, passable-defense right fielder from the previous 4 years and gone was Curtis Granderson, who missed a big chunk of time early in the year due to a broken forearm and a bigger chunk later due to a broken finger.  In their places were 2012 trade deadline acquisition Ichiro Suzuki, out to prove his strong SSS performance wasn't a mirage, and Vernon Wells, a former All Star who was past his expiration date and had pretty much been a piece of shit for 3 of the last 4 seasons before the Yanks traded for him in March.

Yeah, it was a new and not so improved group in 2013, one that inspired more concern than confidence when evaluating them before the start of the season.  The lessons we learned from them this season were hard, painful lessons, ones that any intelligent baseball fan didn't really need a refresher course on.  After the jump, re-live some of that pain again.


What We Thought We Knew- They'd Be Better Defensively

Anticipating that C-Grand wouldn't miss as much time as he did, the defensive layout of the 2013 outfield looked strong.  Gardner's plus skill set would be maximized in center field, Ichiro has always been a strong defensive outfielder in right, and Curtis' speed and athleticism should have more than qualified him to get the job done in left.  For a team that had had its alignment and overall effectiveness in getting to flyballs questioned for a few years prior, the transformation into a better defensive outfield was expected to help combat the overall offensive downgrade.

What We Learned- Better Defense Isn't Enough to Overcome That Big an Offensive Downgrade

The second injury setback to Granderson is what really exacerbated this problem, but no matter how good the Yankee outfield defense was in 2013, it wasn't going to be good enough to make up for 1,000+ plate appearances of Ichiro and Wells.  And it was a pretty good defensive outfield.  Per FanGraphs, the Yankee outfield ranked 8th in MLB with 16 defensive runs saved in 2013.  The true value of those 16 saved runs is drastically reduced, however when you factor in Ichiro's 71 wRC+ and Wells' 70.  They were giving away just as many runs at the plate as they were saving in the field, and Gardner isn't a strong enough offensive player to carry load on his own.

Also didn't help that Yankee pitching gave up the 8th most HR in MLB with 171.  Saving 16 runs over 162 games doesn't mean much when there were at least that many free runs going over the walls on bad pitches.

What We Thought We Knew- The Yankees Willingly Downgraded Their Overall Outfield Talent Level

Again, losing C-Grand for most of the year made this a bigger issue than it was anticipated to be, but their only move to address that being trading for Wells is what truly brought the point to light.  The Yankees let a better offensive outfielder (Swish walk via free agency so they could re-sign a worse one (Ichiro).  They replaced a much-better-than-replacement level outfielder with a sub-replacement level outfielder.  Driven by the bottom line more than the talent line, the Yankee sacrificed power and on-base skills that their lineup desperately needed.

What We Learned- If You're Going to Willingly Downgrade, Don't Do It for 2 Years

Truthfully, we kind of already knew this when the moves to sign Ichiro and trade for Wells were announced.  Seeing how it played out over 162 games only reinforced the stupidity of the front office's plan from a baseball perspective.  Ichiro (1.1 fWAR) was only valuable in the sense that he played above-average defense and played 150 games.  Wells (-0.8 fWAR) wasn't valuable at all.  They're both under contract for 2014 and Granderson is not.  Normally, a team that gets that kind of weak production from their outfield corners is looking to upgrade in the offseason.  The Yankees have put themselves in a position where they may not be able to do that.

What We Thought We Knew- Brett Gardner Was Going to be Much More Important

He was taking over the most important defensive position in the outfield before Spring Training started.  He was taking over the leadoff role in the batting order after The Captain's ankle broke again.  And he was taking over as the only real useful everyday outfielder after C-Grand became a constant target for errant pitches.  To his credit, Gardner took to the role changes as well as he could.  He played above-average in center field, contributed offensively with both his speed and an improved power stroke, and was in the lineup almost every day until a late-season oblique injury put him on the DL.  On a team of inconsistent, below-average performers, Gardner was one of the few positive constants.

What We Learned- He's Not Enough to Make Up for Everything Else

Gardner, bless his heart, is never going to be the 6-WAR player he was in 2010.  His true offensive talent probably lies more in the .320-.330 wOBA range than the .345 he posted that season, and his overall defensive rating did take a hit this year in center compared to when he was among the league's best in left field.  He's not the kind of player who can be a foundation piece of a good outfield.  He's more of a building block, a complimentary piece, and he was left without any other comparable complimentary pieces once Granderson got shelved.  Ichiro and Wells weren't the answer, Alfonso Soriano probably isn't over a season-long sample size, and Zoilo Almonte (-0.1 fWAR in 113 PA) didn't look like the second coming of Bernie Williams when he got his chance.

** Coming up tomorrow- The Rotation. **