An A-Blog for A-Rod

Friday Afternoon Linkapalooza: 1/27 (With Bonus Friday Afternoon Jam)

2012-01-27T14:00:00.002-06:00

Two weeks in a row of linkarounds! I might be on to something here. I'm thinking this will definitely become a weekly feature at AB4AR because there's just too much good stuff going on around the Yankosphere to not do it. Let's get to the links!

- On Tuesday, Rasheeda Cooper of Bomber Boulevard had one of the better Jorge Posada tribute posts that I read this week. Well done, Rasheeda.

- On Wednesday, Brien Jackson of IIATMS threw another name into the lefty DH hat in the form of The Giambino. It may be unlikely, but not a bad option.

- Also on Wednesday and also on the topic of DH, Larry Koestler of RAB presented his list of DH trade options. Some more intriguing names in here as well.

- Fishjam25 of Yankees Fans Unite expanded the trade scope for hitters to include some potential candidates to replace the quality young bat the Yankees lost in Jesus with these 7 suggested trade targets. I would move A.J. and a prospect or 2 for any of those guys if the other teams were interested.

- Josh Norris of Minor Matters Trenton got the jump on the complete Baseball America Top 30 Yankees Prospects list last night via his Twitter feed. Some interesting choices on that list to say the least.

- BrianV21 of The Greedy Pinstripes likes Phil Hughes for the 5th spot in the rotation. I like his logic that Hughes offers the Yankees the most both in terms of production and potential return trade value.

- Rebecca Glass of Pinstriped Bible, on the other hand, seems to be leaning towards sticking Phil back in the bullpen with her post today.

- Frank Campagnola of Pinstripe Alley ponders whether A.J. can have a bounceback year in 2012 or not. I appreciate the effort, Frank, but personally I'm still not buying what A.J. has to sell.

-Robbie Clark of Yanks Go Yard got political with his "State of the Yankees Universe" address on Thursday. Although there weren't as many as Barry O got the other night, there are definitely a few standing ovation-worthy points in there.

- 2 from my TYA homies to close it out. First one from EJ Fagan yesterday, who campaigned again for the Yankees to go after Yoenis Cespedes as some OF insurance for their soon-to-be-FA pair of C-Grand and Swish.

- Also from yesterday and also on the topic of the outfield, Michael Eder suggested trading for Andrew McCutchen and wondered what kind of prospect package it would take to get him. Here's a hint, Adam Warren and Jake Cave would not get it done.

For the Friday afternoon jam we're going with Queens Of The Stone Age. I know Drew Magary would approve, and I hope everyone else out there does as well. Don't work too hard this afternoon, people, and enjoy your weekends.

P.S.- Message to all the readers and members of the AB4ARmy out there. Help make the Linkapalooza better each week. If there's stories I'm missing or that you want to make sure I include during the week, email me the links, and Friday Afternoon Jam requests would also be appreciated. I'm curious to know what everybody out there listens to.

Hiroki Kuroda Says Hello

2012-01-27T09:33:00.002-06:00

(And a tip of the cap to you, good sir.)

“I feel happy to be a part of such a storied franchise, which is always in contention for a World Series. I am also very proud to be a part of this current team, which boasts so many great players. As a member of the Yankees, I would like to do my part by doing the best I can throughout the season. I hope that I can make a difference in achieving the team’s ultimate goal, which is to win the World Series.”

So did Hiroki Kuroda just lay down the greatest introductory statement in Yankee history or the greatest introductory statement in sports history? Holy shit! That's a tough act to follow if you're whoever the Yankees either sign or trade for to be the lefty DH. Better start writing, re-writing, and rehearsing your lines now because Kuroda set the bar pretty damn high. That's one good way to say hello to your new teammates. Here's another:

4 Yankee Prospects In MLB.com Top 100 Prospects List

2012-01-26T19:18:00.001-06:00

If you weren't aware that MLB.com released its first Top 100 Prospects list yesterday, then I feel bad for you. I don't feel bad for the Yankees, though, as they managed to put 4 players on the list, and solidly on the list I might add, as all 4 were inside the top 75. Here's what MLB.com had to say about the 4 Yankee selections and my quick take on their takes.

- Manny Banuelos: 13th- "Once he throws more strikes, he has the chance to be an electric starter who can be a No. 2 or 3 starter."

My Take: Banuelos didn't take a huge knock for his command issues last season thanks to his track record and the fact that he's a LEFT-handed starter with nasty stuff. It's certainly possible, but I think pegging ManBan as a potential 3rd starter at the Major League level is selling him short a bit, especially when the word "electric" was used to describe him previously in the same sentence.

- Dellin Betances: 41st- "His command took a step backward in 2011, and he’ll need to harness his stuff a bit better to have long-term success."

My Take: It's a simple statement, but it's true and it rings truer to Betances than any other Yankee pitching prospect. Command has always been the name of the game with Betances. Another year without it and he could tumble down a lot of people's prospects lists, including this one.

- Gary Sanchez: 53rd- "As long as the defense improves, he can be a bat-first big league backstop, catching every day and hitting in the middle of a lineup."

My Take: For as long as Jesus was in the Yankee system working on his defense, he graduated from Triple-A still having his ability to catch every day questioned. For Sanchez to already have scouts saying he can do it every day with some improvement when his defensive game is so raw and he's still in A-ball is a very good thing.

- Mason Williams: 73rd- "A left-handed hitter who can hit for average and should mature into more power, he has a better idea in terms of an approach than many hitters his age."

My Take: Advanced speed and natural athleticism is one thing. But to also possess an advanced skill so important to being a great hitter at a young age is even better, and Williams seems to have that with his approach. The more that matures and evolves as he advances through the system, the higher his ceiling will become.

Well Here's One Good Rotation Decision

2012-01-26T11:22:00.001-06:00

This almost slipped off my radar yesterday, but after the nonsense that was the 6-man rotation down the stretch last year, I had to make sure I snagged it. At the Jorge press conference, Joe had this to say about the rotation for 2012:

“I can tell you it won’t be a seven or six-man rotation. It’ll be five."

"Right now we’ve got seven starters, and we’re going to have to make some decisions.”

There was some more coachtalk fluff added in for the sake of not tipping his hand, which I get. But cutting through that, I think we can all agree that CC, Pineda, Nova, and Kuroda are going to be the first 4 in the rotation in some order and they should be. These guys' numbers clearly show that they are the 4 best starting pitchers on the staff and they should be treated as such. Hughes, Freddy, and A.J. are going to have to fight it out for the last spot, assuming they are all still around in Spring Training to compete, and that's the way it should be. This ain't the Little League World Series and not everybody needs to be allowed to pitch, and these comments are a good sign that Cash and Joe have learned that lesson from last year.

Not sacrificing approximately 35 starts from your 4 best pitchers to keep everybody happy?

(Quotes via LoHud)

How To Keep The Russell Martin Revival Tour Going

2012-01-26T09:30:00.000-06:00

2011 was an important year for Russell Martin. After two All Star-caliber seasons for the Dodgers in 2007 and 2008, he was basically cast aside like an old mitt after experiencing serious decline, much of it likely injury-related, in 2009 and 2010. The Yankees were happy to pick him up off the scrap heap for $4 million and install him as their bridge between the Jorge Posada and Jesus Montero Eras behind the plate in 2011. A funny thing happened on the way to that plan, though, as Martin bounced back this past season, regaining some of his All Star form and making his way back onto the All Star team. The Yankees rewarded Martin for his 2011 with a 1-year/$7.5 million deal on Tuesday, in the process implying that they may still not be 100% sold on Martin as a long-term fixture behind the plate, even with Jorge and Jesus out of the picture. In looking at Martin's 2011 numbers, there are a few things that he could do in 2012 that could keep his upward momentum going and instill some more confidence in the organization to extend him beyond this season.

Martin's final line of .237/.324/.408 with a .325 wOBA in 2011 was a step in the right direction from where he had been trending the previous two years, but still not up to the standard he set in '07-'08. After a torrid start in the season's opening month (.293/.376/.587, .420 wOBA) Martin cooled off considerably and was up and down at best for the remainder. The first two numbers that stand out to me when trying to explain Martin's 2011 are his BB and K rates. Martin has shown from Day 1 in the Majors that he has a very good eye at the plate. Even in 2009 and 2010, his BB rates didn't decline with the rest of his production, but in 2011 he posted a 10.5% BB rate, the lowest value of his career since the 9.6% he put up in his rookie season of 2006. Martin coupled this lower BB rate with a career high 17.0% K rate, certainly not something that qualifies him as a hacker, but nonetheless greater than what he's traditionally shown.

A contributing factor to those changes could certainly be Martin's career high Swing Rate in 2011, 43.5% according to PITCHf/x, as could his career high 8.3% Swinging Strike rate. But deeper than that, the numbers that concerned me the most were the number of pitches Martin was seeing in his plate appearances. In 2011 Martin averaged 3.74 pitches per plate appearance, below what was his 3.89 career average and even further below the P/PA values in the high 3.90s that he had in his career years. Paired with the increased swing rates, these numbers suggest that Martin was being a bit too aggressive in his approach at the plate and putting himself in too many unfavorable counts. When in those type of counts, a hitter will tend to take more defensive swings, generate less contact and less good contact, and in Martin's case, fail to capitalize on his strength of his great batting eye at the plate. This would certainly explain the low batting average and increased K rate.

Also concerning were Martin's contact rate splits to left, center, and right field in 2011. Martin's track record in these categories shows that he tends to hit a lot of his ground balls to the left side and back up the middle, and starts to elevate the ball more as he goes to right. But in 2011 these splits became even more extreme:

- LF: 18.0% LD, 61.3% GB, 20.7% FB
- CF: 18.3% LD, 49.5% GB, 32.1% FB
- RF: 22.8% LD, 17.7% GB, 59.5% FB (*29.8% IFFB)

Combined with Martin's wOBA splits of .457 to left, .239 to center, and .261 to right, these values above suggest that there are differences in Martin's swing depending on where he tries to hit the ball, and not helpful ones. It would be one thing if he had these contact splits and was productive across the board when hitting to all fields. But the low wOBA values to center and right tell me that he's not making a lot of quality contact on those swings, and the majority of his ground balls up the middle and fly balls to right are turning into outs. Interestingly enough, while Martin had his lowest LD and FB rates to left field, he did hit 14 of his 18 home runs in 2011 to left. So he certainly made the most of the solid fly ball contact he did make to left field.
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AB4AR Top 30 Prospects Update

2012-01-25T12:30:00.003-06:00

With Jesus gone and Jose Campos in, there are some slight changes that need to be made to the AB4AR Top 30. Actually it's only in the Top 10, where Campos essentially replaces Jesus and slots a bit further down the list. The new Top 10 looks like this:

1) Manny Banuelos
2) Dellin Betances
3) Austin Romine
4) Gary Sanchez
5) Mason Williams
6) Jose Campos
7) Adam Warren
8) David Phelps
9) J.R. Murphy
10) Slade Heathcott

I said I like to go with production and steady advancement over ceiling and potential when it comes to pitching, but for a pitcher of Campos' makeup, I'll make an exception. He already has two above-average pitches, fastball and curve, with the fastball being well above-average thanks to mid-90s velocity and very advanced command. He's only 19 years old and he stands 6'4", so he's got time to fill out and possibly add even more velocity as he learns to harness his curve and develop his changeup to a consistent 3rd pitch. And his numbers speaks volumes about what he already is as a pitcher and what he's capable of:

- 81.1 IP, 2.32 ERA, 2.38 FIP, 9.41 K/9, 1.44 BB/9

For the sake of comparison, here are what some other recent Yankee stud pitching prospects did in their first A-ball campaign:

- ManBan '09: 108.0 IP, 2.67 ERA, 2.76 FIP, 8.67 K/9, 2.33 BB/9
- Betances '08: 115.1 IP, 3.67 ERA, 3.79 FIP, 10.53 K/9, 4.60 BB/9
- Nova '07: 99.1 IP, 4.98 ERA, 4.28 FIP, 4.89 K/9, 2.81 BB/9
- Hughes '05: 86.1 IP, 2.19 ERA, 1.89 FIP, 9.70 K/9, 2.08 BB/9

Granted, those numbers above are from higher levels of A-ball than Campos' short season numbers from 2011, but you get the idea. With what he's done as a 19-year-old with limited experience, I feel totally justified putting him in the Top 10. And with Campos moving up to Low-A to join Bryan Mitchell, Branden Pinder, Tyler Austin, Dante Bichette Jr., and Mason Williams, it should be an exciting year in Charleston in 2012.

**SHAMELESS PLUG ALERT**- Check out the whole AB4AR Top 30 again right here.

No More Kim Jones On YES??? NOOOOOOOO!!!!

2012-01-25T07:35:00.000-06:00

Jorge retiring is dramatic enough. But now you're telling me I'm not going to get to see Kim Jones on YES anymore? Now that's a nice kick in the dick to start my morning.

According to Neil Best, Kim was offered a contract by YES but turned it down to "explore other opportunities." Unless those other opportunities involve her and Chris Carlin replacing Joe and Evan on the midday slot on WFAN, then that is just unacceptable. Kim is the best. And truth be told, I'm really not interested in seeing Nancy Newman get pied on the field after a walk-off win. And Jack Curry? He's my man, but there's no way he's going to rock an outfit like Kim.

Only 7:30 in the morning and the day is already a downer. Oh well. Here's to the happier times.

Yanks, Martin Agree To New Deal

2012-01-24T21:57:00.000-06:00

On a day when the Yankees lost one of their toughest players to retirement, it's good to know that not all the badassness will be gone from this season's club.

The Yanks and Russell Martin agreed to a 1-year/$7.5 million deal today, avoiding arbitration in the process and crossing another name off the list of players that they needed to come to terms with.

(Looks like a homer to me. Courtesy of Getty Images)

Jorge Posada Has Retired

2012-01-24T16:01:00.000-06:00

The rest of the Yankosphere has done a better job at covering this today than I have, but here are the highlights of Jorge's retirement press conference today:

- Along with the entire front office, Girardi, Jeter, Rivera, and CC were in attendance.

- Posada on playing for the Yankees: “I played baseball for the New York Yankees, and that’s all I could think of or dream of as a little kid.”

- Thurman Munson's wife saying that Jorge was the reason she got back into following baseball and the Yankees after her husband's death.

- Posada on when he knew he was retiring: “Talking to my wife during the season and talking to Derek through the season, I knew that this was it. I told him and I told Laura that this was my last year, during the year.”

And with that, another member of the Core Four has retired. Whatever the actual definition of a "true Yankee" is, Jorge Posada is the perfect embodiment of that definition. He was a loyal teammate and member of the organization, a fierce competitor, a great leader, and one of the hardest working players in Yankee history. He gave everything he had for his team and his teammates for 17 years of a great, possibly Hall of Fame-worthy career, and it will certainly be different not having him around this season.

For a more in-depth reflection, check out the piece I wrote up on Jorge's career when the announcement of his retirement was first made.

For more in-depth coverage of today's events, check out LoHud.

(Photo courtesy of the AP)

Triple-R: The Bullpen

2012-01-24T09:00:00.000-06:00

(Any discussion about the Yankee bullpen starts and ends with this man. Courtesy of UPI/John Angelillo.)

Since I did such a bang up job predicting the rotation that will no longer include almost half of the analyzed members, I figured I might as well see this series all the way through to its conclusion. With what happened last time, maybe there's some Triple-R karma left over from the Pineda trade and a few days after this is posted the Yankees will somehow add Craig Kimbrel and Sean Marshall to the bullpen before the season starts. But if not, here's what we can expect from the current members of the Yankee 'pen.

Mariano Rivera- Remain

At this point, history, logic, and conventional wisdom can basically go out the window with Mo. He is doing things in his 40s and performing at a level that nobody else in sports, save for maybe Nicklas Lidstrom, is doing. Age doesn't seem to be able to stop him, durability concerns that should come with a professional athlete his age don't seem to be able to stop, and a decrease in velocity doesn't seem to be able to stop him. He's coming off a year where his IP (61.1), K/9 (8.80), BB/9 (1.17), FIP (2.19), xFIP (2.64), and WAR (2.4) were all BETTER than what he put up in 2010. In fact, Mo's 2011 FIP was the 4th best of his career; his BB/9 was the 2ND best of his career and the only other time outside of 2008 that he's been below 1.20 in that category. Mo continues to be the best in the business by being precise with his command and consistent with his approach, and he has successfully combated his decrease in velocity by becoming even more pinpoint accurate with his command. In what could finally be his last year, Mo has given no indication that he'll be anything less than brilliant again in 2012. There will be the 3-game hiccup once or twice, but that's it.

Dave Robertson- Regress

The bad news is that D-Rob is a prime candidate to regress in 2012. The good news is that it has more to do with the fact that his numbers can't get much better than they were in 2011 than it does an actual regression of his skills. D-Rob benefited from an absurdly high strand rate in 2011 (89.8%) and an absurdly low HR/FB ratio (2.3%), neither of which are likely to be repeatable in 2012 as the law of averages runs its course. Robertson is also still prone to the occasional bout of inconsistency with his command, and his walks continue to be a cause for concern (4.73 BB/9 last season). But when you have the shutdown stuff that he has, that will help cover up some of the problem areas, and with another year of high-leverage experience under his belt, I don't expect Robertson to regress much more beyond an ERA and FIP in the mid-2.00s. He possesses two elite pitches and he attacks hitters with them, and he generated more swings and misses (career highs 13.50 K/9 and 10.8 SwStr %) and less contact almost across the board in 2011 than in his previous years. The all-world numbers of 2011 probably won't be back, but D-Rob will still be one of the 5 best relievers in baseball in 2012.

Rafael Soriano- Rebound

He's not my favorite player by any means, and I won't be plunking my money down to buy his jersey any time soon, but I do believe that Rafael Soriano's 2011 was not a true representation of the type of pitcher he is and can be for the Yankees. He was the victim of a couple of really bad outings early in the season that, thanks to his extended injury absence, he didn't have enough time and enough innings of work to correct. He gave up 9 earned runs and 8 walks in his first 11.1 IP in March and April, and just 9 earned runs and 10 walks over 28 IP for the rest of the season. Soriano also experienced some issues with command that had not been present in his game in the previous two seasons. It shouldn't be taken as a coincidence that his 3.97 FIP and 4.12 BB/9 were the highest numbers in those categories from Soriano since 2008, when he posted a 3.92 FIP and a ridiculously high 5.79 BB/9. When he can locate, he can be very effective, and he showed instances of that in 2011. And who knows how much the injury contributed to his early struggles and bouts with inconsistent command? Injuries are still always a major risk with Soriano, but I expect to see a healthier, more consistent version of him in 2012. Hey, maybe he'll even smile once.
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Jorge To Formally Announce His Retirement Tomorrow

2012-01-23T19:08:00.001-06:00

The day of things becoming official in Yankeeland continues as the team issued another press release today announcing that Jorge Posada will hold a press conference at Yankee Stadium tomorrow at 11AM to announce his retirement.

In honor of Jorge officially calling it a career, I'd like to go back into the AB4ARchives to find my 2 favorite Jorge-centric posts. Those posts come from the earliest days of AB4AR, when the Yankees and Blue Jays engaged in their 2009 brawl. The first one was my immediate reaction to the fight after watching ESPN engage in a full-on smear campaign against Jorge and the Yankees, and the second was another collection of thoughts I gathered throughout the day after the fight. They were probably the first truly decent things I wrote for the blog and I have Jorge and his crazy competitiveness to thank for that, so thanks, Jorge.

(When it takes someone's entire team to pull him away from a fight, you know that's a guy you should not fuck with.)

Yanks Make Pineda Trade Official

2012-01-23T15:52:00.001-06:00

Guess everybody passed their physicals. Here is the official press release from the Yankees on the Friday the 13th trade:

"The New York Yankees today announced they have acquired RHP Michael Pineda and RHP Jose Campos from the Seattle Mariners in exchange for C/DH Jesus Montero and RHP Hector Noesi.

Pineda, who turned 23 on January 18, went 9-10 with a 3.74 ERA (171.0 IP, 71 ER), 55 walks and 173 strikeouts in 28 starts with the Mariners in 2011 in his first Major League action. He finished fifth in American League Rookie of the Year Award voting, leading all AL rookies in strikeouts and strikeouts/9.0 IP (9.11), ranking second in innings pitched, opponents batting average (.211) and quality starts (19), tying for second in starts and ranking fourth in wins. He also held right-handed batters to a Major League-low .184 batting average (min. 225 batters faced).

The right-hander’s 173 strikeouts were the sixth-most by an AL rookie over the last 30 years and second-most all time by a Mariners rookie behind Mark Langston’s mark of 204 in 1984. Both his strikeout-to-walk ratio (3.15) and strikeouts/9.0IP mark (9.11) rank as second-highest all time by a qualifying AL rookie.

Pineda opened the season in the Mariners’ starting rotation and was the third-youngest AL player on a 2011 Opening Day roster at 22 years, 72 days (as of March 31), behind Kansas City LHP Tim Collins (21 years, 222 days) and Chicago-AL LHP Chris Sale (22 years, 1 day). He earned AL Rookie of the Month honors in April (4-1, 2.01 ERA), and was named to the American League All-Star team after posting an 8-6 record with a 3.03 ERA in the first half.

A native of Yaguate, D.R., Pineda was signed by Seattle as a non-drafted free agent on December 12, 2005. He was named the Mariners’ Pitcher of the Year in 2010 and was a finalist for the USA Today Minor League Player of the Year. He entered the 2011 season as the Mariners’ top pitching prospect (second overall), according to Baseball America, as well possessing the organization’s “Best Fastball” and “Best Slider.”

According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the last player to pitch with the Yankees at age 23 or younger after having already pitched for another Major League team was Mike Morgan, acquired by the Yankees from Oakland in exchange for INF Fred Stanley in 1980 after pitching the 1978 and 1979 seasons with the Athletics. Morgan made his Yankees debut in 1982 at the age of 22 years, 187 days.

Campos, 19 from La Guairá, Venezuela, was signed by the Mariners as a non-drafted free agent on January 15, 2009, and has compiled a 14-10 record with a 3.26 ERA (171. IP, 62 ER) in three minor league seasons. He spent the 2011 season with short-season Single-A Everett, where he went 5-5 with a 2.32 ERA (81.1 IP, 21 ER) and a team-high 85 strikeouts, leading the Northwest League in ERA and strikeouts and ranking second in opponent’s batting average (.214). He walked just 13 batters the entire 2011 season, recording a 1.44 BB/9.0IP ratio, third-lowest among Northwest League starters. Campos was named to the Northwest League All-Star team, and was tabbed as the league’s top right-handed prospect (third overall) by Baseball America.

Montero, 22, hit .328 (20-for-61) with nine runs, four doubles, four home runs, 12 RBI and seven walks in 18 games (14 starts at DH, three starts at C) in his Major League debut as a September call-up with the Yankees in 2011. Originally signed by the Yankees as a non-drafted free agent on October 17, 2006, Montero spent a majority of the 2011 season with Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, batting .288 (121-for-420) with 52 runs, 19 doubles, 18 home runs and 67 RBI in 109 games and leading all International League catchers with a .997 fielding percentage (two errors, 655 total chances). He ranked third among all Yankees farmhands in home runs at the minor league level en route to being named to the International League’s midseason All-Star team. Following the season, the Venezuela native was tabbed by Baseball America as the Yankees’ top prospect for the third straight year, as well as being named the organization’s “Best Hitter for Average” and “Best Power Hitter.”

Noesi, 24, saw his first Major League action in 2011, going 2-2 with a 4.47 ERA (56.1 IP, 28 ER) in 30 appearances (two starts) over four stints with the Yankees. The right-hander was 2-1 with a 4.01 ERA (51.2 IP, 23 ER) in 28 relief appearances, while going 0-1 with a 9.64 ERA (4.2 IP, 5 ER) in two starts—both against the Tampa Bay Rays. Noesi owns a career record of 30-18 at the minor league level with a 2.98 ERA (428.1IP, 142ER) and 401 strikeouts in 97 games (74 starts)."

So there you go. Jesus and Hector are officially gone and the rotation revamp has officially begun. I can't wait for pitchers and catchers to report.

How About This Option For DH?

2012-01-22T17:18:00.000-06:00

It's something I never even gave the first thought to, so unfortunately I can't take credit for it. But my man Steve S. of the TYA family posted this genius proposition earlier today when he suggested an A.J. Burnett-for-Travis Hafner trade.

It makes perfect sense. Hafner fits the Yankees' need for a left-handed DH to likely platoon with Andruw Jones. And with his injury history, you have to figure he's going to be out of the lineup enough to allow the Yankees to use that spot for A-Rod and Jeter and Teix and whoever else is going to need it at one point or another during the season. And the fact that the Yanks would be ridding themselves of A.J. to fill the DH need is a classic "2 birds with 1 stone" situation if I've ever seen one.

Read the post and join the discussion. And Cash, if you're reading this, make it happen!

A Quick Word On Just How Awesome The Brett Gardner Contract Is

2012-01-22T11:16:00.000-06:00

The Brett Gardner signing is a story that broke a few days ago, but it definitely warrants mentioning in greater detail. On Friday afternoon, the Yankees and Gardner agreed to a 1-year/$2.8 million deal, avoiding arbitration in the process. The Yankees originally offered Gardner $2.4 mil, he was asking for $3.2 mil, so the agreed upon deal falls right in the middle. The beauty of this deal is not so much what the Yankees are paying Gardner, but the value the Yankees are getting for their $2.8 million. Consider this:

- Only 13 Major League outfielders accumulated 5.0 fWAR or more in 2010.

- Only 12 Major League outfielders accumulated 5.0 fWAR or more in 2011.

- Only 3 Major League outfielders reached that 5.0+ fWAR level in both seasons. They were Jose Bautista (15.1), Matt Holliday (11.7), and Brett Gardner (11.2).

Say what you want about the flaws in the WAR statistic and in the sabermetric defensive measures that give Gardner the majority of his WAR value, but that's still pretty damn impressive. You don't see Josh Hamilton on that list, you don't see Ryan Braun on that list, you don't see Justin Upton on that list, and you don't see Jacoby Ellsbury on that list. And all of those guys are going to be making significantly more than Brett Gardner's $2.8 million in 2012 and in the near future.

True, Gardner is not the type to take home any end-of-the-year awards for his work at the plate. He had a respectable .358 wOBA in 2010 and dropped to .330 this past year, so he's not a Silver Slugger contender. But his value to the Yankees and in terms of generating WAR cannot and should not be understated. He is an elite defensive outfielder with the ability to play multiple outfield positions at the highest level. And at the plate, he has the ability to work counts, draw walks, and put the ball in play at above-average levels, which allows him to use his speed on the basepaths to create scoring opportunities. Gardner's skill set gives the Yankees contingency plans for both Curtis Granderson in center if they decide they can't afford him after next season, and for Derek Jeter in the leadoff spot if his age-related decline finally forces Joe to remove him from that role.

If you asked me if I'd like to have one of the top 3 outfielders in total WAR over the past 2 seasons who's in his prime at 28 years old on my team this season for the price of $2.8 million, I wouldn't even have to think before I said, "hell fucking yes I would!" The Yankees have the benefit of not even having to be asked the question, because they've already answered it for themselves. And if Gardner rebounds offensively the way all the projections think he will, this is going to be another steal of a deal for the Yankees in 2012.

Checking In With The Horse

2012-01-21T13:41:00.000-06:00

I linked to this story yesterday afternoon, but when The Horse speaks I'm contractually obligated through the name of the site to not only mention it, but to comment on his comments. It's also been a while since anything A-Rod-specific has been mentioned here, so here's a quick take on what A-Rod had to say to ESPNDeportes yesterday.

"I think the vision for us as a team is now ... you want the DH spot to be one that's kind of a revolving door. I think a lot of us at some point or another, in such a long season, are going occupy that spot."

I wouldn't quite say the Yankees want the DH spot to be a "revolving door" as A-Rod put it. But their reported $2 million cap to fill the position does signify that the team isn't looking to fill it with a full-time player, and kudos to The Horse for recognizing his age and the age of some of his teammates and being smart enough to realize that keeping that position open for them is important to the team's success in 2012.

"... I'm conditioning myself right now ... to help the team win a championship and play a good third base."

Hopefully those conditioning efforts are better and different than the ones he's used before the last couple seasons, because a healthy A-Rod and a healthy A-Rod at third base are both big for the Yankees. For the same reason that Jesus Montero's value was lessened by the Yankees using him as a full-time DH, the same holds true for The A-Taur. The more time he spends at the hot corner, the more valuable he is.

My favorite bit from this interview was definitely A-Rod's comments on Michael Pineda, who he faced one time in 2011 and said of the encounter, "it wasn't a lot of fun."

"He has 3-plus pitches and throws up in the mid 90s, and again he's quite a figure out there, he's 6-7 and has a long reach and I'm glad I don't have to face him anymore."

Normally comments like this about new players would just be chalked up to guys being PC and saying what they have to say about a new teammate. But when the words are coming from A-Rod's lips, I think a little more weight has to be given to them. A-Rod has a reputation for being one of, if not the smartest baseball player out there and having a great feel and understanding for the nuances of the game. If he can describe facing Pineda as not fun and give a very positive scouting report on him, chances are there are plenty other players out there who feel the same way. And that bodes well for the Yankees to have a guy like that in their rotation. A thumbs up from A-Rod is like the baseball equivalent of getting a 4-star movie review from Peter Travers, and that's just more support for the trade being a win for the Yankees.

Well This Is A Slow Friday Night

2012-01-20T19:35:00.000-06:00

Last week at this time we had top prospects getting shipped across the country, new pitchers being added to the rotation like it was going out of style, and potential DH targets being suggested by the dozen. Tonight I'm sitting here with snow coming down outside and nothing going on in Yankeeland to occupy my time. Well, unless you count the Gardner signing as big news.

What gives, Cash? Do something!! I'm bored as hell here. DO SOMETHING!!!

Friday Afternoon Linkapalooza

2012-01-20T13:07:00.000-06:00

It's probably the fifth or sixth time I've used this headline, but it's been awhile since I've done the Friday linkaround, so F it. Let's get to the links.

- Robbie Clark of Yanks Go Yard discusses the shift in Puerto Rico's international standing within MLB as it relates to a potential international draft.

- William of The Captain's Blog examines Michael Pineda's 2011 pitch selection and how it will serve him moving forward as he develops a change.

- Alex Geshwind of TYA breaks down both Michael Pineda's game and Cash's logic in making the move for Pineda.

- Chip Buck of IIATMS had this interview with Jim Callis a few days ago talking about the Yankee Minor League system. If you somehow missed this, you should slap yourself.

- Also from IIATMS, Brien Jackson runs through the potential solutions to the current overcrowding issue with the rotation. I'm a fan of any of his options that involve A.J. no longer being a Yankee.

- Delia E. of Yankees Fans Unite looks at the arbitration situations of the 3 remaining eligible players and decides whether Martin, Logan, and Gardner should take the deal or not.

- Stephen Rhoads of RAB predicts what the roster and payroll will look like heading into next offseason and how that will impact the Yankees' ability to sign Hamels a/o re-sign C-Grand.

-3460kuri of Pinstripe Alley uses run differential analysis to show why adding Pineda was more important than giving up Jesus.

-And if you were wondering what The Horse has been up to lately when he's not nailing Torrie Wilson, he talked to ESPNDeportes' Alvaro Morales about the upcoming season. No word on whether or not the team will take his plan for a rotating DH into consideration.

Darvish Contract Makes Yankee Pitching Moves Look Even Better

2012-01-20T08:06:00.000-06:00

Yu Darvish is officially a Texas Ranger. For a cool $112 million, the Rangers were able to plug the gap left by former ace C.J. Wilson jumping to the Angels. And in the process they made the Yankees' pitching additions from last Friday look even better.

For what works out to approximately $18.667 million dollars per season after factoring in the contract and posting fee, the Yankees could have had Darvish's services. He could have slotted in behind CC as the #2 starter, provided an upgrade over what the Yankees had in their rotation at the time, and given them another young pitcher around which they could build their rotation for the future over the next couple seasons. He also would have left them with one rotation spot still being occupied by A.J. Burnett, and at that price tag seriously crippled the Yankees' plans to cut payroll for 2014, unless they let both Swish and C-Grand walk without making offers to them and stayed dormant on the FA and trade markets.

As it stands right now, the Yankees will pay Michael Pineda and Hiroki Kuroda about $10.4 million in 2012, significantly less than what Darvish will get from Texas, and lengthen their rotational depth in the process. They'll do it without sacrificing their future payroll goals, and with Pineda being under team control for the next 5 years and coming off a stellar rookie year, the Yankees could stand to get production from him identical to, if not better than what Darvish will provide at a fraction of the cost. Even Kuroda could come close to replicating Darvish in 2012 when you factor in all the adjustments that Darvish will have to make going from the Japanese game to the American game.

Darvish, for all his talents and impressive numbers, is an unknown commodity as a Major League pitcher. Pineda and Kuroda are not. And Pineda, at 2 years younger than Darvish, already has a very good Major League season under his belt. His learning curve will presumably be shorter than that of Darvish. If Pineda outperforms Darvish over the next 5 years, the decision by Cash to pass on Darvish and pursue this trade is going to look like a stroke of genius. Even if he doesn't, it's reasonable to expect Pineda to come close to matching Darvish moving forward and at the drastically different dollar amounts that each will be making, that's still a great deal for the Yankees.

In the end, Darvish and the price tag tied to him didn't fit in with the Yankees' plans. They went out and found a much cheaper alternative that could turn out to provide even better value. And they lowered their risk by taking a chance on Major League players with Major League experience. As much as they scouted Darvish, the Yankees had to have a very solid idea of what he is and could become as a pitcher and what that was worth to them. And they decided that shelling out 9 figures for that kind of pitcher wasn't a wise investment. When the alternative is adding 2 quality starters at significantly less money while still maintaining future roster and payroll flexibility, I would have to agree with that decision.

Searching For The Next Great Yankee Bat

2012-01-19T09:30:00.001-06:00

While the Yankees' shoddy track record of developing young pitching is well-documented, taking a look through the recent history books also shows that they're not exactly churning out Silver Slugger Award winners at the plate either. The last Yankee position player to come through the system and establish himself as an impact bat at the Major League level was Robinson Cano in 2006. Before Cano, you have to head back to the mid-90s and the days of Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada to find a homegrown position player who stayed in the organization and became an above-average hitter. This theme hasn't been as easy a target to criticize the way the young pitching has thanks to the team's deep pockets. When you're getting major offensive production from the prime years of guys like Paul O'Neill, Tino Martinez, Jason Giambi, Alex Rodriguez, and Mark Teixeira, it's easy to forget about your young position players.

Jesus Montero was the next in line to become an All Star-caliber homegrown hitter, and had been for some time. With the immediate impact he made in his cup of coffee last September, the torch was all but dosed with lighter fluid and lit, ready to be passed to him. Montero was the rare type of hitting prospect who combines great bat speed with tremendous power and a disciplined approach at the plate, a combination that has earned him high praise and comparisons to guys like Manny Ramirez and Miguel Cabrera. The accuracy of those comparisons can be argued, and it remains to be seen if Montero can live up to those lofty standards, but there is no denying that as a prospect, Montero trumped guys like Cano and Jeter, who were both recognized as good hitters when they were in the Minors, but not to the degree that Montero has been. I certainly can't recall any comparisons being made between Cano and Rod Carew until he had already been in the Majors for a season or two.

Anybody with half a clue knows that prospects like Montero don't come around every year. Like an effective John Lackey outing, they are very rare and that rarity is the foundation of their value to a franchise. In Montero's case, he was even more valuable to the Yankees in that he gave them the potential to fill what could quickly become a need again for them in the form of a productive power bat in the middle of the lineup. With some of the key core members of the Yankee offense getting older, to be able to inject that kind of production potential into the lineup from within the organization is a huge advantage.

That advantage is magnified even more when you take into account the Yankees' apparent new goal of cutting payroll for 2014. Accomplishing that goal would mean not only NOT going out and spending lavishly on big time hitters as they have over the past 15-20 years, but also possibly not re-signing some of the impending position player free agents like Swish and C-Grand who already provide major production. Those at-bats have to be replaced somehow, and the likely method would have been through cheap, team-controlled young players like Montero. Losing Jesus, the obvious key piece in that cost-controlled replacement plan, in the Pineda trade is more than just a bummer because we wanted to see him play. It could have a big impact on the Yankees' organizational plans both in the short term and the more distant future.

With Montero out of the picture, the Yankees must now look to the rest of the system to find the one who will step up and assume Jesus' vacated throne as King of the Position Prospects. If you check any Yankee top prospects list, like this one for example, you can see that there are plenty of position players scattered through the system who could develop into productive Major League hitters. The problem is that most of these players reside in the lower levels of the Yankee system and are at least two years away from being able to make any kind of impact at the Major League level. The upper levels, especially Triple-A, are stacked with lower-ceiling guys like Brandon Laird and Austin Romine, or guys who project as nothing more than organizational players like Jorge Vazquez, a powerful hacker straight out of the Pedro Cerrano handbook. As it stands, none of these players are capable of filling Montero's shoes and providing a cheap outlet to replace at-bats and production, at least not at the level the Yankees would be looking for.
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Happy Birthday To The Newest Yankee Starter

2012-01-18T20:22:00.000-06:00

And the youngest. Happy birthday, Mike. Hopefully your 23rd ends up better than mine was.

Although thinking back to how much my two best friends and I drank that night, I highly doubt it will be.

(Photo courtesy of Getty Images)

It's A Four-Alarm Signing, People

2012-01-18T08:54:00.000-06:00

In honor of him being the newest addition to the AB4AR sidebar Photoshop collection, and in honor of the Yankees bringing back the best relief pitcher in baseball not named Mariano Rivera, a guy who put up a 1.08/1.84/2.46 line last year and K'd 100 batters in 66.2 IP, for just $1.6 million...

Ladies and gentlemen, The Fireman.

Now hit the fucking music!

Fraud Sawx Rotation Is Gettin' Swolled Up

2012-01-17T20:20:00.000-06:00

As is starting operating procedure in the AL East, the Fraud Swax had to respond to the Yankees' blockbuster moves on Friday night. Honestly, I don't understand it either. Sooner or later this whole "anything you can do, I can do BETTER" routine from them has to stop, but I digress.

What really fries my brain on this one is the fact that the Sawx actually got started on their comeback move BEFORE the Yankees even made their moves. That's right. Almost a whole week in advance. I'm talking, of course, about the masterful steal of a deal that is the Aaron Cook Spring Training invite contract that the Fraud Sawx signed him to on January 8th. That stroke of brilliance is enough to stand on its own merit, but when paired with yesterday's announcement of a Vicente Padilla signing, well it's damn near enough to disrupt the space/time continuum.

I mean, Cook and Padilla! TOGETHER!!! IN THE SAME ROTATION?!?!?!?!?!?!!!!!111!!!! Surely that tips the scales back in Bahhston's favah, right?

- Pineda 2011: 171 IP, 3.74/3.42/3.53, 9.11 K/9
- Kuroda 2011: 202 IP, 3.07/3.78/3.56, 7.17 K/9 (NL)

- Cook 2011: 97 IP, 6.03/4.54/4.37, 4.45 K/9 (NL)
- Padilla 2011: 8.2 IP (all relief), 4.15/2.68/3.40, 9.35 (NL) ((small sample sizes, anyone?))

Well there you go, the numbers tell the whole story. You wanna know what I think? I think the Fraud Sawx "probably" upgraded their rotation for 2012. They'll at least have 5 guys in the rotation now, won't they? That has to be considered an improvement.

P.S- Suck it, Bobby V.

The Potential Impact Of The Montero-Pineda Trade On The Rest Of The Roster

2012-01-17T09:30:00.004-06:00

The immediate impact of Friday night's blockbuster moves by the Yankees are obvious and significant. Their 2012 rotation has been drastically upgraded by the additions of Michael Pineda and Hiroki Kuroda, and the starting lineup currently has a glaring hole at DH. The DH situation and its potential solutions are already being discussed in detail, so no sense in re-hashing that. What hasn't been talked about a whole lot yet is the reverberations of this trade that can be felt throughout the entire 25 and 40-man rosters. The addition of Pineda and Kuroda combined with the loss of Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi lays the groundwork for some interesting possibilities heading into Spring Training. Possibilities such as...

1) Austin Romine as the new backup catcher

With Montero heading to Seattle, the Yankees are left with Francisco Cervelli as their lone backup catching option. While that's not the worst thing in the world from a backup standpoint, we've all seen what happens to Cervelli's production when he's forced into everyday duty, and Russell Martin is not exactly a pillar of health. Enter Austin Romine. Still a Top 10 prospect on almost everybody's list, Romine got a taste of the Majors at the end of 2011 and was expected to be the full time catcher for Scranton/Wilkes-Barre in 2012. But with Cervelli being what he is, the Yankees will certainly invite Romine to camp and could give him a real shot to win the job. The ZiPS projections for Romine in 2012 (.252/.300/.364, 74 OPS+) are almost identical to Cervelli's (.255/.321/.343, 75 OPS+), and with very limited Major League experience, the short and long-term ceiling for Romine is higher than it is for Cervelli. Early in the offseason Cash was signaling that he was looking to move Cervelli. Even with one less catcher in the fold, an emergence by Romine could steer Cash's thoughts to that option again.

2) More Eduardo Nunez in the lineup

We all have our ideal guy in mind, but I think the most likely scenario for filling the void at DH is a L/R platoon with Player X and Andruw Jones. And I think with that scenario comes the understanding that both A-Rod and Jeter are going to see more time at DH this season, which is something that has to happen if the Yankees are going to keep these two important, and expensive, pieces of their lineup healthy and on the field as much as possible in 2012. With the Yankees failing to come to terms with Hiroyuki Nakajima, Eduardo Nunez will again be looked at to play caddy to the left side of the infield on their DH days. That might be a frightening proposition for folks with tickets in the first few rows behind first base at The Stadium, but Nunez is the best option in house right now and the Yankees still seem committed to getting him more playing time. He can hold his own with the stick, and after gaining some valuable experience in his 338 plate appearances in 2011 he could improve this year. Some slight adjustments to his throwing mechanics to cut down on the errors and perhaps we saw that WAR number get into the positives for Nuney.

3) The Return Of "5th Starter Roulette"

I wouldn't say it's every Yankee fan's favorite game show, but it's at least better than "Minute To Win It," right? Previous winners include Phil Hughes in 2010 and Freddy Garcia in 2011, and both of those gentlemen will return to defend their titles in 2012. It would have been nice to not have to play this game in Spring Training for the third year in a row, and with the way the rotation was constructed prior to Friday night the Yankees most likely wouldn't have. But I think the additions of Pineda and Kuroda to form a strong front 4 with CC and Nova is a fair tradeoff for us having to endure this pseudo-drama for another year. A.J. Burnett could even sneak in as a dark horse candidate if Cash doesn't move him prior to camp opening. Strong cases for all three contenders have already been made, but it will be their performance on the hill that determines the winner.

4) More Candidates For The Long Relief Bullpen Role

And whoever ends up on the losing side of "5th Starter Smackdown" will get tossed into a pool of candidates, likely as the early favorite, for the longman job in the bullpen. Based on the Yankees previously committing to using Hector Noesi as a starter in 2012, the two names that stick out here are Rule 5 pick Brad Meyer and D.J. Mitchell. Given Joe's preference for arms with experience (hi, Luis Ayala!), and the fact that he's more familiar with Freddy, Phil, and A.J., I think they would have a big leg up on the competition. But to create a competition for a spot, even a minor role like this, is always a good thing in camp. At least make the guys earn their keep.

5) Vacancy At The "Triple-A Rotation" Inn

Well maybe not a vacancy, but certainly no overcrowding. With Noesi, the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees were looking at 6 guys for 5 spots in their rotation in 2012 as ManBan, Betances, Adam Warren, David Phelps, and the aforementioned Mr. Mitchell would also be in the mix. Without him, the remaining five fit in nicely, assuming the Yankees keep Mitchell in the rotation, which would be the smart move to start the year if/when the loser of the 5th rotation spot battle slides into the long relief slot in the Major League bullpen. And even if they don't, at least now the Yankees aren't forced into making any decision with this group of young pitchers because of lack of roster space. Everybody has a place in the rotation and they can continue to pitch and develop without worrying about whether or not a bad outing or two would cause them to lose their spot or have their role changed. The worst thing you can do to a young pitcher is constantly alter his routine and approach, something the Yankees are all too familiar with (see: Chamberlain, Joba). At least now they don't have to do something like that to accommodate somebody else.

Certainly nothing sexy here, that's for sure. But it goes to show how far-reaching these big trades can be. Four days ago, we could almost name what the entire 25-man roster would look like and what each guy's role would be before Spring Training even started. Now? Not so much, which brings added intrigue to this offseason. The trade changed the Yankee roster in a big way, and it will likely continue to affect that roster right up until Opening Day and beyond.

Get Out Your 2-Year-Old World Series Gear, Folks...

2012-01-16T20:36:00.000-06:00

Because we got us a good old fashioned 2009 World Series Championship reunion tour in the works!! And it's going to be AWESOME!!

There might be Matsui!

There might be Damon!

And who knows what else!! Maybe a guest appearance by Cody Ransom!!!

Quick, somebody get Andy-Wan Kenobi on the phone!

Farewell To The Jesus

2012-01-16T08:28:00.000-06:00

I'm not a religious man by any means. The one day of church I attend every year is on Christmas Eve, and I only do it because I know it's important to my mother. And even then, I spend the majority of my time at that one Christmas Eve church visit trying not to laugh at the way the pastor delivers a watered down version of the Christmas story, including random animals that would never appear in the nativity scene.

So while I might not be one of the lucky few who is spared during the next rapture or end of the world of whatever, I was a believer in one Jesus. That Jesus wasn't a product of a virgin birth (as far as I know), he didn't sport a kickass hippy beard, and he more than likely won't get nailed to a cross by a bunch of angry baseball fans. But he was a miracle child, and he could have been the savior of the Yankee offense. Sure, he wasn't going to be Pudge Rodriguez behind the plate, but look at that swing!! It was a thing of beauty. It was as if Michelangelo himself rose from the grave to craft that swing and bless it with opposite field power. And after the events that transpired on Friday night, it is a swing that we Yankee fans shall get to enjoy nevermore. That swing will live on through our memories of those glorious 69 plate appearances last September, and the couple in October, but from this day forth we will experience it only as that of a visiting player, the enemy, and that is truly disappointing.

I've written about the perils of prospect hugging before, but in the case of Jesus Montero I was powerless to follow my own advice, as I'm sure many of you were. He had been hyped up for so long (with good reason), and we had to wait seemingly forever to finally get the chance to see him break into the everyday Yankee lineup, laying the groundwork for the next great batch of homegrown talent that would surely establish the next great Yankee dynasty. And now he'll be shipped clear off to the other side of the continent, never to bless us with any of his heavenly talents. After waiting for years for him to develop and make his way through the Minor League ranks, and seeing him held out of multiple trades for other pitchers, to have him snatched away right as he finally reached the level at which we all wanted to see him is a tremendous blow.

On a personal level, despite the fact that I quickly came to understand how good a trade this was for the Yankees on Friday night, I'm still bummed out at having to lose Jesus and not get to worship at his altar for the next 10-12 years. He was the first prospect since Phil Hughes that I latched onto early and followed all the way through the system, and I was a firm believer that the Yankees should not have traded him for anybody and used him to build the foundation for the future lineup. Not to mention the fact that he was my favorite of all the Photoshops I use regularly on the site, and now I can never use it again.

I'm even going to have to replace him on the sidebar of the page. That fucking sucks.

I'm happy with the decisions the Yankees made in terms of the big picture. But a part of me will always be bummed out that I didn't get to see what Jesus could have done in a Yankee uniform. Whether he turned out to be Carlos Lee or Miguel Cabrera or somebody else, whatever. It would have been exciting to see his career play out after all the hype. I used this song last year in jest to commemorate Pedro Feliciano being lost for the season. Today, it actually seems strangely appropriate to use in connection with Jesus leaving us. Goodbye, sweet prince. You will be missed.

TYA Self Promotion

2012-01-15T17:12:00.000-06:00

If you want to know what I and the rest of my TYA colleagues think about who should/shouldn't be the 5th starter in this new rotation, head over there and check out this post. Pretty much every possibly scenario is covered.

If you haven't even started to consider who you'd like to see in that last rotation spot (Hughes, A.J. Freddy, someone else), this is a great way to read well-reasoned arguments for all 3 of the major contenders and form your own opinion.

Shut The Hell Up, Valentine

2012-01-15T12:14:00.000-06:00

Bobby V doesn't seem too high on the Yankees' recent acquisitions, saying that the New York rotation is "probably" better.

“Pineda, when I saw him the first half, he looked unhittable. Second half, he looked OK. (The Mariners) saw a lot of him and they traded him."

“Kuroda is a good pitcher — a year older than he was last year, pitching in the American League and not the National League, pitching in not a great pitcher’s ballpark from a great pitcher’s ballpark.”

Listen, Bob. I know you've been outta the coaching game for a while and doing the studio analyst thing, and you probably forgot what your job was when you said this. But this is the kind of stuff you reserve strictly for the Baseball Tonight set, especially when your club is bringing in the immortal Aaron Cook to patch up the back end of your rotation and still employs John Lackey. You're spending all your time talking about whether or not Tim Wakefield and Jason Varitek's carcasses are going to be invited to Spring Training while Cash is snatching up exactly what your club needs. So like my mom always used to tell me; if you don't have anything nice (or smart) to say, then just shut the fuck up.

Remember This Time Last Year?

2012-01-14T14:51:00.000-06:00

A year ago yesterday, in a situation similar to the one they found themselves in this year, the Yankees made the foolish decision to sign Rafael Soriano. The move did not help them fill their biggest area of need (the rotation) and was tremendously costly in terms of years (3), money ($35 million), and the fact that they had to surrender their 1st-round draft pick as a result.

Last night, the Yankees cashed in on learning from the mistake of Soriano, adding 2 very good starting pitchers to their rotation while sacrificing very little in terms of years (Pineda under team control for 5; Kuroda on a 1-year contract), money ($10 mil for Kuroda), and prospects (only Jesus). It's like night and day.

The lesson, as always, is to trust Cash. It's amazing what a good GM can do when ownership stays out of the way and let's him do his job.

Free-Flowing Montero-For-Pineda Trade Commentary

2012-01-14T10:45:00.001-06:00

Well last night was fun, huh? One minute you're sitting around scratching your balls, wondering how the Celtics are going to survive a compacted NBA season being so old and thinking about whether or not you like Daniel Bryan's heel turn, and the next minute the internet is blowing up with stories about Jesus Montero being traded for Michael Pineda, then blowing up again as the Yankees follow up that story with another story of them inking Hiroki Kuroda to a one-year deal. In the span of 45 minutes, the Yankees came out of left field to completely overhaul their rotation in a way that helps them immediately and in the future. My thoughts on what transpired last night, in somewhat of a particular order.

- Initial reaction was a negative one. In my head, it didn't make sense to give up a piece of your starting lineup, a player who could inject some life into an aging lineup and be the next great Yankee bat, and a pitcher who could probably be the #4 guy in the 2012 rotation for just one piece that brings immediate help. Subtracting 2 of your best 25 players to get only 1 back that can fill that gap didn't add up. And yeah, I know it was all just the prospect hugging talking.

- The more I thought about it, the more I read up on Pineda and Jose Campos, and the more I talked with my guys from TYA, the better this trade started to look for New York. Pineda is a stud, a young stud, who already has top-of-the-rotation stuff and could progress into an ace with the right coaching and development. He's just 22 years old, stands 6'5"/240, and is coming off a first year in the Majors that saw him throw 171 innings of 3.74 ERA/3.42 FIP ball with 9.11 K/9 and 2.89 BB/9, a performance that earned him a 5th place finish in the AL ROY voting, even though he probably should have been top 3.

- An no, I'm not concerned about Pineda's flyball tendencies coming to Yankee Stadium, his home/road splits, or the fact that he faded a bit down the stretch in 2011. He's a young pitcher; those things happen to young pitchers. What matters is that he has dynamite stuff, a track record of success, and is still young enough to have tons of room to improve. He's already better than any of the internal #2 starting options the Yankees had, and pairing a pitcher like him with Larry Rothschild could bring out real greatness in Pineda.

- The Yankees' position on Montero has always been that they would only move him for the right deal, and this deal last night was the perfect definition of that. They traded from a position of great organizational strength, and traded the one prospect from that position with the most question marks surrounding his ability to play that position, to improve the position of greatest weakness at the Major League level and finally accomplish what they said was their biggest offseason goal.

- And in regards to Montero, the fact that the Yankees still didn't seem keen at all on the idea of him catching a lot of innings should have been a clue that he was still on the block. If they really only viewed him as a DH option, then he obviously holds more value to them as a trade piece. And with the package they got back, that's the kind of deal you include a piece like Montero in.

- I guess I can check off #5 on the Offseason To-Do List.

- The finer details of this trade are what puts Cash's stamp on this. Throwing Noesi into the trade, a guy who despite good stuff and a solid performance last year was really just organizational depth at the moment, helps to ease some of the Mariners' sting of giving up Pineda as Noesi can move into their 2012 rotation. And by doing that, throwing in 2 guys who had success at the Major League level last year, Cash gave himself some leverage to ask for something else in return and that turned out to be Campos, a top prospect in the Mariners' system. Cash just doing the damn thing again!

- On Campos, yes he's very young and only has a year of Low-A ball under his belt. But the numbers he put up there (83 K/13 BB in 81.1 IP over 14 starts) are very impressive for a 19-year-old. And at 6'4"/195 with what's already described as an elite fastball that he commands to both sides of the plate and a developing change and curveball, the pieces are there for this kid to develop into a #1-#2-type starter. Campos essentially slides into Jesus' spot on the Yankees' top prospects list (although not at #1), and gives them another high-ceiling pitching prospect to work with.

- If the Pineda trade didn't signal the death knell of A.J. Burnett's time in the Yankee rotation, then the Kuroda signing certainly did, and probably also for Freddy Garcia. The Yankees add a young #2 pitcher and a guy who, even at his age and switching to the AL East, is still probably a true #3 at worst, to replace two guys who are #4 starters at best. And I think given the age of Burnett and Garcia, it's likely that Hughes will win/get the #5 spot in this rotation and one of Burnett and Garcia will be traded while the other assumes the mop-up/longman role in the bullpen.

- If the one to be traded does turn out to be A.J., even if the Yankees just get a box of baseball cards back for him, I'm calling out of work to throw a party at my place. You're all invited.

- Quickly on Kuroda, I like him in this role as the new #3, much more than I would have liked the Yankees signing him a month ago for $12-14 mil to be the #2. He's got solid K rates, he limits walks, and his GB rate is good, something that will serve him well pitching in Yankee Stadium and should help alleviate any issues that come with Pineda being more of a flyball pitcher. Kuroda gives the Yankees better depth and better talent than what they already had in the middle of their rotation, and on a one-year deal, doesn't interfere in plans to trim payroll for 2014. As much as I wanted Roy Oswalt, Kuroda is just as solid an option.

- Another interesting subplot to this whole situation is the "Hal talking to Scott Boras" story that dominated the better part of the previous two days. If I can go Mel Gibson in "Conspiracy Theory" for a second, I think the Yankees played Boras and used him as leverage to make this trade happen and also as a way to throw the media off their trail while they finalized the trade and the deal with Kuroda.

All we've been hearing about is how the Yankees were staying in contact with the Kurodas and Oswalts of the world and nothing about a potential Montero-for-Pineda swap. Knowing that Boras loves to use them to drive up the market for his clients, the Yankees decide to sit down with him to discuss Edwin Jackson, also knowing that the media will pick it up and the story would work in reverse to force the Mariners to finalize the trade. Any time the Yankees are even rumored to be involved, teams have to take that seriously, and the Yankees used that in their advantage to make the deal they wanted to make, leaving Boras and Edwin Jackson sitting there twisting in the wind. If that plan doesn't have Cash written all over it, I don't know what does.

- When you look at what the Reds gave up to get Mat Latos and what the Nats gave up to get Gio Gonzalez, this trade looks even better for the Yankees. They managed to add a younger, arguably better pitcher than either of those 2 guys by only giving up 1 of their top prospects, and even managed to get a top 5 prospect back in return.

- AAAAAAAAAAAAND, when you think about all the potential deals that Jesus was either involved in or requested to be in by other teams that the Yankees didn't make, this trade is genius. Instead of getting 3+ months of Cliff Lee or 1 year of John Danks, the Yankees get 5 of Pineda. And they get those 5 years of Pineda with ManBan and Betances still intact.

- With the FA class that's coming up after the 2012 season, the potential for a 2013 dream rotation is scary. Let some of those hypotheticals roll around in your brain tonight when you're out at the bar.

- The biggest bummer about losing Montero? I didn't get to use this Photoshop nearly enough:

This was a great trade for the Yankees, and another brilliant job by Cash of laying low, working things behind the scenes, staying patient, and striking when the moment was right. Yes, it sucks to lose out on Montero and all that he could have potentially done in a Yankee uniform, but this was the ideal return in a trade involving The Jesus, and the 2012 Yankees are better off as a result.

Which Rotation Looks Better To You?

2012-01-13T21:13:00.001-06:00

Option 1)

1) CC
2) Nova
3) A.J.
4) Freddy
5) Hughes

Option 2)

1) CC
2) Pineda
3) Kuroda
4) Nova
5) Hughes

I mean, really! Do you even have to think about it? Once again, the Yankees zag when everyone thinks they're zigging. And yes, I assume Hughes will be given the best chance to win the 5th rotation spot over A.J. and Freddy.

#InCashWeTrust

BREAKING NEWS!!!!: Yankees Trade Jesus for Michael Pineda

2012-01-13T19:32:00.005-06:00

ESPN has it already, so it sounds legit.

The Yankees have traded Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi to the Mariners for Michael Pineda and Jose Campos. Details to follow...

** UPDATE- 7:51PM- From looking around the interweb, this seems about as real as it gets. Once again, the Yankees come out of nowhere to make a major move. From what I'm gathering on Campos, he's one of the better prospects in the Mariners' system. And he's only 19 years old. **

** UPDATE- 7:58PM- Jack Curry is reporting that the Yankees have signed Hiroki Kuroda to a 1-year, $10 million deal. The lion has struck from the tall grass...

** UPDATE- 8:44PM- Pineda in 2011: 171 IP, 9.11 K/9, 3.74 ERA/3.42 FIP. 22 years old; under team control for 5 years. Campos rated #5 prospect in Mariners' system by Baseball Prospectus. K'd 85 and only walked 13 in 81.1 IP of A-ball in 2011. **

The New Mets Tickets Promotional Video Is Pretty Accurate

2012-01-13T12:29:00.001-06:00

It's funny because it's true! That pretty much sums up what it's like to be a Met these days. To be perfectly honest, I think I'd rather be an abused, abandoned dog stuck in a shitty shelter than be a member of the New York Mets baseball team. I actually wouldn't be surprised if this boosted sales simply out of pity for those poor players. For a split second there I was reaching for my desk phone to call the number, but then I snapped back to my senses. Damn it's good to be a Yankee fan.

Kudos to Randy Medina at The Apple for putting this together. A+ stuff right there.

That's More Like It

2012-01-13T07:45:00.001-06:00

Via Joel Sherman, Hal Steinbrenner, despite agreeing to meet with Scott Boras to discuss Edwin Jackson, "has yet to OK expanding payroll to add a significant player," which is music to my ears after a long, sleepless night spent tossing and turning while worrying what kind of crazy Friday the 13th shenanigans could happen today.

It's nothing against Jackson. I'm sure he's a nice kid and would probably provide more value in the rotation this season than A.J. But he's a Boras client, and that can be a dangerous situation, especially when your plan is to cut payroll and only look for one-year deals at the right price. Jackson is not a one-year deal candidate and he's certainly not the type of pitcher to warrant the Yankees deviating from their plan. Just stay the course, be patient, and listen to whatever Cash says.

I'm Not Liking This Edwin Jackson Situation One Bit

2012-01-12T12:52:00.001-06:00

I didn't put too much weight into Jon Heyman's report last night about Hal Steinbrenner and Scott Boras meeting to discuss Edwin Jackson. Heyman basically exists to be Boras' mouthpiece and to create markets for his clients, so no big deal.

But now that Marc Carig has the story as well, and explains that Boras requested the meeting and Steinbrenner agreed to see him, I'm really starting to get nervous. In my FA profile on Jackson a few months back, I stated that he would be my last resort as a rotation target because of his inconsistent performance and the fact that him being 28 made it more likely that he would seek a longer-term deal. And nothing has changed since then. I'd still rather have Oswalt and Kuroda than Jackson, and I'd rather see the Yankees stick with the 5 they have penciled in right now than sign Jackson.

Maybe the front office is once again split on whether or not to pursue a potential target. Maybe the Hanks and Levines of the world crave them some Edwin Jackson and are forcing this behind the scenes. It is almost the 1-year anniversary of the Rafael Soriano, and tomorrow is Friday The 13th. I'm just sayin'...

Triple-R: The Rotation

2012-01-12T09:30:00.001-06:00

(The ace and the... other guy. Courtesy of The Daily News)

The rotation to start 2012 will look an awful lot like the one we saw to open 2011, at least as of today. That might not seem like a reason to be overly confident, but collectively this group can still be effective enough to get the job done. Just how effective will depend on whether each pitcher Regresses from, Rebounds from, or Remains at his 2011 level of production.

CC Sabathia- Remain

It'd be downright stupid to expect anything less from CC in 2012 than what he's provided since first putting on the pinstripes. He's still in his prime at 31, he won't turn 32 until July, he's got another fat contract in his back pocket, and he's making another attempt to shed some weight prior to the start of Spring Training. Now the first go-round with that effort didn't pan out over the course of the 2011 season, but he still pitched incredibly well. For as long as he's been doing this, we almost have to give CC the benefit of the doubt when it comes to him handling the type of workload he does at the size he is. He's been the one constant in this rotation since 2009 and he'll continue to be that in 2012. Pencil him in for another 230+ IP, ERA and FIP numbers in the high 2.00s-low 3.00s, 8.00+ K/9, 6-7 WAR, and a top 5 Cy Young finish.

Ivan Nova- Remain

Call me crazy, but I think there might be something to Super Nova's strong 2011 finish. His velocity was up, his command was much better, and his slider developed into a very useful pitch, practically bypassing his other secondary offerings to become his out pitch by the end of the year. Nova also made great strides in the 2nd half of last season in his ability to work through a lineup multiple times, change up his offerings, and really think his way through an outing. He's always pitched with great poise on the mound for a young pitcher, and now he's starting to learn the finer points of pitching to refine his game. Considering that he's only been a starter at the Major League level for a little over a year, it's reasonable to expect that he still has room to improve. He won't become a future ace of the staff, but maintaining his pace from the 2nd half of 2011 should result in a very good year for Nova in 2012.

A.J. Burnett- Remain

As stupid as it would be to expect anything less from CC in 2012, it would be equally dumb to expect anything more from A.J. At this stage in his career, with declining stuff and spotty command, A.J. is really a 4th starter at best making 2nd starter money. The best thing anybody can say about him is that he provides innings, but as the quality of those innings continues to trend downward along with his fastball velocity, calls are going to start coming for the Hector Noesis and Adam Warrens of the world to get their shot. If A.J. had a reliable 3rd pitch, perhaps he could combat the losing battle he's fighting with Father Time. But 35 is a little too late to start working on that, especially when you're a pitcher whose biggest issue has been repeating his mechanics and delivery. An ERA over 5.00, a FIP somewhere close to that, a lot of wild pitches, and more ill-timed HR allowed is what I'm expecting from A.J. in 2012. But hey, at least he's consistent.

Freddy Garcia- Regress

Freddy's 2011 production was arguably the most pleasant surprise out of the entire pitching staff. He provided stability and consistency to the rotation multiple times during the season when guys like Hughes and Bartolo hit the DL. Unfortunately, the numbers he pitched to probably aren't sustainable for another year given his stuff and his recent track record. He hadn't posted a sub-4.00 ERA since 2005 prior to last season, and has only put up one season with a lower HR/FB rate than the 8.2% he had in 2011. Considering his GB rate went below 40% last year while his FB rate rose, and he isn't going to be making a huge jump in his K rates any time soon, the signs are all there that 2012 will be a year where we see more balls finding the gaps and the seats off of Freddy. He shouldn't fall off a cliff completely, but Freddy circa 2010 is far more likely an outcome than a repeat of what he did in 2011.

Phil Hughes- Rebound

Phil's 2011 couldn't have been much worse, which makes him an obvious candidate to have a bounce-back year in 2012. The big question is, exactly how big is that bounce back going to be? Should we be expecting pre-2010 ASG Phil? Post-2010 ASG Phil? Something in between those 2 versions? Or some version of Phil similar to the one that finished 2011? Whatever version we get, it has to be better than the guy who posted a 5.79/4.58/4.90 slash with just 5.67 K/9 last season. Hughes will be further removed from his heavy 2010 workload and will be back in better shape after getting shipped out to Cali, so the life in his fastball that was missing for most of last season should return. If it does, then Phil will be set up for success as everything he does is off the fastball. His secondary offerings and how well he commands them will determine just how big of a rebound he has in 2012, but even staying healthy and pitching a full season will be an improvement.

Because it's the same 5 guys who finished the season in the rotation last year, there shouldn't be expectations for drastic improvement. But Nova repeating the success of his 2011 second half and Hughes coming back to be a reliable 3rd-starter type should help this group at least maintain the success that last year's rotation had. Anything positive from A.J. is just icing on the cake at this point.

Checking In On The Offseason To-Do List

2012-01-11T12:29:00.000-06:00

It's been almost 3 months since I moved on from the rough ending of the 2011 season and started looking towards the future with what, in my opinion, should have been the Yankees' list of offseason priorities. How's the progress looking on that list now that they've had that 3 months?

1) Get Cash's New Deal Done- Check

The official announcement was made slightly after the details of the new CC came out, but it's safe to assume that the Yankees already had an agreement in place with Cash earlier than that. Before they could execute any offseason action plan, they needed to have their GM, and they were wise to bring back the best man for the job.

2) Re-Sign CC- Check

Like the Cash deal, this situation was resolved very quickly by the Yankees, and in a very wise fashion. They made CC the highest paid pitcher in the game again while still maintaining enough payroll flexibility to not have his deal weigh them down in the years to come the way A-Rod's is right now. And they also didn't get locked into another 7-, 8-, or more-year deal for big money. Definitely a win-win for both sides.

3) Address The Starting Pitching Situation- Check

Before they even got involved in talks with the big FAs of the year (Wilson, Darvish, Buehrle, etc.), the Yankees were quick to make decisions on all their incumbents. Nova was declared an official part of the 2012 rotation, as was Phil, and then he was quickly shuttled off to fat camp to get in shape. They also decided to give A.J. another vote of confidence, let Bartolo go, and re-sign Freddy. You can argue whether some of the moves were right or wrong, but the fact that the Yanks made decisions on each player and had a rotation in place made their plan for going after FAs more clear and easier to execute.

4) Develop and Execute Offseason FA/Trade Plan- Check

And execute it they did. It's been a lot of low bids, preliminary talks, and excessive trade demands, but the Yankees' plan was clearly to go into the Winter Meetings with a rotation in place and only get seriously involved in upgrade options if the price was right. Money has been the name of the game as usual this offseason, only this year it's been about trying to save and conserve money rather than spend it. Again, you can argue whether this plan by Cash and the front office was the right one, but you can't say that the Yankees didn't have a plan and didn't stick to it. Well, at least so far they've stuck to it.

5) Define Jesus Montero's 2012 Role- Open
6) Develop Plan for A-Rod for 2012- Open

Neither of these things have been officially addressed by the team, but you have to think behind the scenes some discussions have been had. I've already talked about the A-Rod situation at length, and whatever is going to happen with Jesus next year is handcuffed to how the Yankees choose to manage A-Rod's playing time. But with the majority of the roster set for next season, now is the time to finalize these details so the players can prepare themselves for their roles and not have to adjust to things mid-season.

7) Fill Out The Bench And Bullpen As Needed- Half Check

This was last on the priority list, but it's something the Yankees have been quietly doing all offseason. From bringing back Andruw Jones to signing some guys to MiL deals to adding potential bullpen arms through the Rule 5 draft, the Yankees are slowly but surely filling up the 25-man roster. And with word coming out that asking prices are starting to come down for the remaining FAs on the market, they might not be done.

For as quiet as this offseason has seemed, the Yankees have actually done a pretty good job addressing their key needs. They have their GM in place for the long haul, ditto their ace starting pitcher, and they have the majority of their roster set for the 2012 season. There's still some fine tuning to be done, but the major goals of this offseason have been accomplished, and that's the important thing.

Not The Free Agent Pitcher I Had In Mind

2012-01-11T07:49:00.001-06:00

Via Ben Nicholson-Smith:

"Yankees maintain interest in re-signing Luis Ayala, who spent '11 season w/ NY."

That was pretty much my reaction to reading that news late last night, right down to me almost shooting my computer in horror. Luis Ayala sucks, plain and simple. He served a purpose last year and then all of that was ruined when Joe decided to use him in a high-leverage spot in the ALDS. I don't need to be reminded of that every time I see Ayala take the mound again; no Yankee fan does. Let some other team take Ayala and use the last few bullpen spots for young guys. One of them is just keeping a place warm for Joba anyway.

Do The Yankees Really Need Another Lefty Reliever?

2012-01-10T09:30:00.001-06:00

While this offseason has been mostly an inactive one for the Yankees, one thing they have gone after consistently is cheap pitching depth. From re-signing Freddy Garcia to another team-friendly one-year deal to taking low-risk flyers on guys like Adam Miller, Brad Meyers, and Matt Daley, the Yankees have definitely given themselves plenty of options to choose from when it comes to filling out their Major League and Triple-A pitching staffs for 2012. Among this smorgasbord of lower-level talent is a collection of left-handed relief pitchers (Cesar Cabral, Mike O'Conner, and Hideki Okajima) from which the Yankees will presumably look to fill the "2nd bullpen lefty" role that was left vacant in 2011 thanks to injuries suffered by the now departed Damaso Marte and the still being paid Pedro Feliciano. But in looking at how the team, and the bullpen, will likely be constructed in 2012, is a 2nd lefty reliever something the Yankees should even be pursuing?

In quickly constructing the roster, we know there will be the starting 9 (Teix, Bobinson, A-Rod, Jeter, Martin, Gardner, C-Grand, Swish, and The Jesus) and the 5-man rotation (CC, A.J., Nova, Freddy, Hughes). The bench will include Andruw Jones as the 4th OF, Eduardo Nunez as the backup SS/3B, and almost certainly Francisco Cervelli as the 3rd catcher. In the bullpen, the no-doubt crew includes Mo, D-Rob, Soriano, Boone Logan, and Cory Wade to start the season, which adds up to 22 spots already accounted for. The team will likely need another utility option on the bench, so someone like Ramiro Pena or Brandon Laird will fill that role for the 23rd spot, and the bullpen as it is has no solid long relief option, so pencil in somebody from the Kontos/Meyers/D.J. Mitchell trio for that role and the 24th roster spot.

This leaves only 1 spot open on the roster and a slew of players who could fill that spot. This is where the issue of "need vs. want" as it relates to another lefty reliever comes into play. The Yankees took the approach of deciding they needed another lefty in 2011, hence the signing of Feliciano, and it ended up backfiring on them when he missed the whole season. But in terms of how that loss affected the bullpen's performance against lefties, the argument could be made that they were just as well off without Feliciano. Boone Logan, for as much crap as he took around the blogosphere last year, wasn't completely useless against left-handed hitters:

- 27.1 IP, 38 Total Baserunners Allowed, 34 K, 2.96 ERA/3.65 FIP/3.12 xFIP

It was a down year for Logan, sure, especially when you look at all the baserunners. And he wasn't nearly as effective in his LOOGY role as he was in 2010. But when you add his 2011 in with his career totals against lefties, you get a very respectable 3.07/3.39/3.32 tripleslash with 10.13 K/9 in 114.2 IP. It's not lights out by any means, but the strikeout numbers suggest the stuff is there to be that kind of pitcher, and the results from 2010 prove that Logan is capable of being that type of pitcher. And with Logan typically being used in the 6th-7th innings of games, another lefty option would really only be necessary if the Yankees' setup man and closer struggled against left-handed hitting. Do they? Not exactly.

- D-Rob vs. LHH 2011: 35.2 IP, 38 BA, 54 K, 1.01 ERA/1.37 FIP/1.90 xFIP
- Mo vs. LHH in 2011: 27.2 IP, 28 BA, 24 K, 1.63 ERA/2.66 FIP/2.90 xFIP

- D-Rob vs. LHH career: 95.0 IP, 2.75/2.47/2.77, 12.98 K/9
- Mo vs. LHH career **: 341.1 IP, 1.61/2.49/2.87, 7.88 K/9

** (FanGraphs only keeps "vs. L" pitching stats from 2002 on)

Unfortunately, FanGraphs doesn't keep stats on how many lefty bats Mo has turned into kindling in his career, but you get the idea. The combination of D-Rob and Mo has been very good against lefties, just as they have overall throughout their careers. It would be asinine for Joe to even consider playing a L/R matchup game with these guys late in games. Once Joba returns, the Yankees will have another late-inning arm capable of pitching well against lefties (3.93/3.82/3.85, 9.38 K/9 in 188.0 career IP as a starter & reliever), so the need for another lefty option becomes minimized even more.

I hate to break it down to such basic black and white terms and reference predetermined bullpen roles, but Joe already manages the bullpen that way, and because of that the Yankees are in a position where they don't really need another left-handed reliever. They're looking for 5-6 good innings from their starting pitcher (more if it's CC), and then just a 1-2-inning bridge to Robertson and The Sandman for the 8th and 9th. Boone Logan in his current semi-LOOGY role fits into that bridge perfectly and can continue to be used this way as an insurance policy for Soriano, who does have a shaky history against lefties (4.80/5.36/5.05 in 2011; 3.50/4.10/4.16 career). The re-introduction of Joba to the 'pen in mid-2012 will only add to that bridge inning depth, and once D-Rob and Mo enter the game, all talk of matching up goes out the window because of their ability to shut down hitters from either side of the plate.

Like last year, a second lefty in the bullpen would be a nice convenience to have, but it's definitely not something the Yankees need in order for their relief corps to be successful. A better use for that 25th roster spot would be to add another multiple-inning arm or a Chris Dickerson/Justin Maxwell type to lengthen the bench. And given their track records, there's not much to suggest that Cabral, O'Conner, or Okajima would be more effective against left-handed hitters than the relievers the Yankees already have. That's not to say that if one of these guys pitches well enough to earn a spot on merit out of Spring Training that the Yankees shouldn't take them. But Joe is already a bit too married to the idea of set roles for guys in his bullpen. There's no reason to take another lefty just for the sake of having another lefty and give him another option for a role that isn't needed.

Rough Day For Former Yankees In HOF Voting

2012-01-10T08:05:00.000-06:00

Barry Larkin being the only player elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame was the big story yesterday. The smaller ones, and the ones more pertinent to this blog, were the results of 2 former Yankees on the ballot. And they weren't good.

Donnie Baseball had another weak showing, garnering just 17.8% of the vote. It was up from his vote total last year but still nowhere near what he'll need to get elected. And in his 12th year of eligibility, it's unlikely that we'll see Mattingly get the call unless the Veteran's Committee is feeling generous in the future.

Bernie Williams also didn't fare that well, picking up just 9.6% of the votes in his first year on the ballot. The one bit of good news for Bernie is that he's the only first-year player who earned enough votes to stay on the ballot next year. That bad news? Voters don't take into account one's music career.

Truth be told, I never really gave Bernie much thought when it came to HOF contention. His overall body of work doesn't scream Hall of Famer, but when you dig into the numbers, his peak years are pretty damn good. From 1996-2002, Bernie posted 5 consecutive ASG selections ('97-'01), 4 consecutive Gold Gloves ('97-2000), a Silver Slugger Award ('02), and a batting title ('98). His lack of top 5 MVP votes probably hurts his cause, but the 4 rings and postseason numbers should help to counter that. Based off of his 9.6% this year, Bernie is the longest of longshots to make it in. But based off his resume, a case can certainly be made.

An All-Jorge Linkapalooza

2012-01-09T12:37:00.001-06:00

As I did with Andy Pettitte when he retired, here's a collection of the best stuff around related to Jorge's retirement.

- I know I linked to it in my own post this morning, but Buster Olney's piece on Jorge's career and his numbers is a must-read.

- The NY Times has a photographic look at Jorge's Yankee career.

- Tom Verducci's piece for SI does a good job of making a case for Jorge's inclusion in the HOF.

- At The Daily News, Bill Madden, if you're into that kind of thing, argues that Jorge's HOF case should be strengthened by the fact that he spent his entire career with one team.

- Kevin Kernan at The Post has a short, heartfelt piece on how Jorge deciding to hang them up was the right call.

- Mike at RAB takes a great trip down memory lane as he reviews "The Jorge Posada Game" against the Rangers on May 16, 2006. Either this or the ALCS double is Jorge's defining moment, so check this one out if you're not familiar.

** UPDATE- 1/10/12- 7:38AM- Jack Curry at YES has another great piece on Jorge, this one taking a bigger look at Jorge the person. **

On Jorge's Retirement

2012-01-09T09:23:00.000-06:00

Truth be told, I didn't really know how to approach writing about Jorge Posada's retirement, which, while not officially announced by Jorge himself, can be assumed to be impending after legit Yankee sources like Sweeny Murti and Buster Olney first reported the story this weekend. Jorge was never one of my favorite players as I grew up and became a real baseball fan, even as he proved time and time again to be one of the most valuable members of the dynasty that started in the late 90s. Even within the Core Four, Jorge ranks 4th in my hierarchy, well behind Andy Pettitte at 3. In fact, I had grown to dislike Jorge over the past couple seasons as he became more of a detriment than a strength behind the plate and devolved to a platoon-type, left-handed only hitter at the plate.

I was especially critical of Jorge this past season when he threw his temper tantrum and took himself out of the lineup against the Fraud Sawx after Joe batted him 9th, disgusted that he could let his personal pride get in the way of his duty as a teammate and professional. But in looking back at Jorge's career, it is that pride and attitude that I think carried him to the success he had as a player, and it is that pride and attitude that will define his career, for the better, as a great baseball player and a great Yankee. He was never the biggest, strongest, fastest, tooliest, anything-iest player on the field, and yet he got so much out of what he did have and brought so much more to the table because of what he had inside. That, more than anything, is the mark of a truly great player and the defining characteristic of Jorge's career.

In looking back at his career and trying to define his greatness, the first question that will come up is whether or not Jorge is worthy of making the Hall of Fame. His standard stat line paints a very strong picture: .273/.374/.474, .848 OPS, .366 wOBA, 275 HR, 1,065 RBI, 47.6 fWAR. You throw in the 5 ASG selections, 5 Silver Slugger Awards, and 4 World Series rings and Jorge's case becomes even stronger. He ranks top 10 all time amongst catchers in doubles (7th), HR (8th), and XBH (9th, and is 11th in RBI. Coincidentally, he also holds the same spots in those categories in the all-time Yankee rankings, along with the 3rd-highest WAR for Yankee catchers behind only Bill Dickey and Yogi Berra and the 8th most Games Player in franchise history.

Where the issue becomes cloudy is in the comparisons. Putting Jorge up against the greatest catchers of all time and his numbers don't appear as sparkling (12th out of the top 12 in terms of WAR for players who played at least 50% of their games at catcher). This is likely due to Jorge's negative defensive ratings, which hurts his candidacy in that they show him as an average all-around catcher, but also could help in that him still ranking amongst the tops all time despite the poor D shows just how good his bat was. But when compared to his contemporaries (all catchers who have debuted in the past 25 years), Posada ranks 3rd in total WAR, behind only Mike Piazza and Ivan Rodriguez, 2 surefire HOFers. Furthering the contemporary argument is the fact that Jorge leads all catchers in hits, home runs, and RBI since 2000 and is the only catcher ever to ever hit over .330 with 20+ HR, 40+ 2B, and 90+ RBI in a single season. However you look at it, Jorge is right on the edge of the HOF line.

But HOF or no HOF, there is no denying the value and strength that Jorge brought to the Yankees in his 17 years in pinstripes. He was the vocal, fiery behind-the-scenes leader that balanced out the cool, calm, and collected public captain's role that Derek Jeter has played for so many years. He was the first to stand up for teammates on the field, the first to talk to reporters off the field, and event though he looked like he was hauling a stainless steel refrigerator on his back when he ran, he was always hustling when he stepped between the chalk lines and took the field. More than any other player, Jorge might define just what made that late-90s Yankee dynasty so special. He worked hard, got the most out of his talent, never tried to do too much, and stepped up in the biggest moments when his teammates needed him to. That's what people should remember Jorge by, and judging by the reaction he got all season long from the Yankee faithful, that's how he will be remembered.

If I had to pick, I would have to say my favorite Jorge moment was the game-tying double off of Pedro in Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS. With everything surrounding that situation and the fact that he came through off a pitcher who absolutely owned him, that's a moment I will never forget as a Yankee fan. The look of sheer joy and still lingering focus and intensity on his face as he turned around to celebrate with his teammates in the dugout is an everlasting image in any real Yankee fan's head, and probably the perfect image to capture just what Jorge was about as a baseball player.

So even though he wasn't my favorite Yankee and never will be, and even though I admittedly soured on him over these last few seasons, I am going to miss Jorge Posada. By whatever definition you want to use, he represented what being a "true Yankee" was all about, and it was fitting that he got to go out on his terms and on a personal high note this past postseason as one of the few Yankee hitters who actually performed well in the ALDS. I'm glad he chose to go out on that note and to go out as a Yankee, and I'm looking forward to the day when his #20 is retired amongst the other great Yankee numbers where it belongs.

(Stats and rankings courtesy of Buster Olney at ESPN)

It's Getting Closer...

2012-01-08T16:16:00.000-06:00

I know we're still a while away from real baseball, but Spring Training is coming. No really, I'm being serious. We're just a little over 5 weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting. And that's a good thing, because I'm getting a little tired of writing about the nothing that the Yankees are doing this offseason, as I'm sure you're getting tired of reading about it. Just keep clicking the days off that calendar, people. Baseball will be here sooner than you think...

P.S.- That song needs an updated version showing the 2010-2011 players. Somebody get on that, please.

Jorge To Retire

2012-01-07T15:49:00.001-06:00

According to Sweeny Murti, via Twitter:

"Jorge Posada will announce his retirement within the next two weeks, per source."

Can't say this would surprise me. There really hadn't been much talk of teams interested in Jorge. Now we can just stay tuned for the official announcement.

** UPDATE- 3:51PM- ESPN has the story as well. That source works fast. **

How Are Things Going Over At Citi Field This Offseason?

2012-01-07T12:13:00.000-06:00

I haven't talked about the Mets in a few months. What with the Yankees' offseason being so enthralling, I guess I kind of forgot about their little brothers on the other side of town. But surely, something new and exciting must be going on with that organization that will get their fans stoked for the 2012 season, right?

"The Mets said in a statement Thursday that they had hired CRG Partners, a firm known as a turnaround specialist and bankruptcy consultant, to provide 'services in connection with financial reporting and budgeting processes."

Oh. Well I guess that's a good thing. Maybe that means things are starting to turn around for them, right?

"The Mets are certainly under considerable financial pressure. They lost $70 million last season. They owe more than $400 million to a group of banks; $40 million to Bank of America; and $25 million to Major League Baseball that is past due."

Yeesh. That kinda sucks. But on the positive side, at least Fred Wilpon can check off the last thing on his team's offseason to-do list:

1) Re-design the field dimensions to better fit the mediocre skill set of the team.
2) Make no attempt to better the team at all through free agency or the trade market.
3) Allow the team's best player to walk in free agency without even making an offer just a few months after you could have traded him for valuable prospects.
4) Reduce ticket prices in a last ditch effort to get whatever is left of your rapidly-dwindling fanbase to come back to the stadium in 2012.
5) Hire a well-known firm to help you manage your impending bankruptcy.

That's a hell of an offseason right there if you ask me. As I stated last night on the AB4AR Facebook page, as a Yankee fan it's always good to know I have the Mets around to put things in perspective for me. The Yankees are trying to cut costs for 2014 by not throwing huge chunks of money at Yu Darvish or Mark Buehrle; the Mets aren't even making an attempt to sign Jose Reyes. The Yankees couldn't make a deal with a Japanese player to fill a backup infield role; the Mets are going bankrupt.

(Quotes courtesy of The New York Times)

Friday Afternoon Sick Day Linkapalooza

2012-01-06T13:16:00.000-06:00

My annual cold that didn't come in 2011 decided to grace me with its presence over the past 36 hours, so I left work early to spare my co-workers from my gross congestion. With no job to do this afternoon, this seems like the perfect time to take another spin around the Yankosphere. Join me, won't you?

- First up, a pair from RAB. Joe Paw looked at the current 40-man situation earlier in the week and tried to figure out who would be the next to go to make room. At least not signing Nakajima makes that situation a little more clear.

- Today, Larry Koestler crunched the numbers on the A-Rod contract to find out just how much he's being overpaid right now. It's not pretty when you get to the end of it, but definitely an interesting read.

- Speaking of The Horse, Rasheeda Cooper at Bomber Boulevard was in the mood to talk about him earlier in the week and she's very optimistic about his chances for a bounce back 2012. I can't say I'm quite as optimistic as Rasheeda, but when your post is titled "Let's Talk About A-Rod," you're speaking my language.

- Delia E. over at Yankees Fans Unite is already looking for improvements in 2012, and names her 6 Yankees that need to do just that. Love the inclusion of Girardi on that list.

- Over at Pinstripe Alley, Brandon C. has gotten over the harsh pain of losing out on Nakajima and is already looking for possible replacement utility options. I have to admit, I never would have considered Willie Harris, but I could see that working.

- Brien at IIATMS discusses the value that Ian Kennedy still brings to the Yankees, even though he's no longer in the organization at a time when they could use another quality starter.

- Michael Eder, one of the new additions to the TYA team, gives us some reason to be optimistic about Phil Hughes in 2012 by examining the link between his fastball velocity and his FIP values. If Phil can get the heater back up to where it was in '09, that could go a long way to strengthening the rotation. Not bad for a debut post.

Zambrano Trade Hurts Yankees' Chances Of Trading A.J.

2012-01-05T14:21:00.000-06:00

There hasn't been a whole lot of A.J. trade chatter lately, although that may be an option that the Yankees are still open to and even pursuing behind the scenes. But with the Cubs moving Carlos Zambrano to the Marlins last night, and eating a hefty chunk of his remaining salary in the process, the likelihood that the Yankees actually move A.J. now is slim to none.

The Yankees opening bid for what they were willing to pick up on A.J.'s remaining salary was $8 million. That's a decent chunk, but still not nearly enough out of the $33 mil that he's owed for teams to be willing to take him off Cash's hands. For the sake of comparison, the Cubs are picking up $15.5 mil of Zambrano's remaining 18, or 86.11%. That same percentage of the balance of A.J.'s contract would be $28.42 million, a figure much too rich for the Yankees' cost-saving blood. For that kind of money, they might as well keep him on the team and pay him to at least eat innings.

Then there's the pesky little 2nd year still remaining on A.J.'s contract. Zambrano, psychotic as he is, represents a smaller risk for the Marlins because if he goes off the reservation again, at least they know they're done with him after the season. Any team willing to take on A.J., regardless of what the Yankees agree to pick up money-wise, is stuck with him for another year. And with the way he's pitched, that's not an ideal situation to be in.

A.J. being traded was probably never actually going to happen, although I would have been the first one to celebrate and suggest a parade through the Canyon of Heroes if it did. But with the precedent set by the Zambrano trade yesterday, any slight chance that something could be done was definitely killed. And that means we can all really start to prepare ourselves for another season of this guy:

Triple-R: The Outfield

2012-01-05T08:28:00.000-06:00

(One for all and all for one. Courtesy of The Daily News)

The Yankee outfield trio of C-Grand, Swish, and Gardy slowly started to establish themselves as one of the best all-around outfields in baseball in 2010, especially after Curtis got the Dr. Long treatment on his swing in the second half. In 2011, that trend continued in a big way thanks to Curtis' monster year, and it's now a fair statement to say that the Yankee outfield is among the top 3 in baseball, top 5 on its worst day. So what should we be looking for in 2012?

Brett Gardner, LF- Remain

I know Gardner's numbers were down a bit across the board in 2011, but a lot of that can be attributed to his horrific start. And despite my continued pleas for him to work with Kevin Long to try to develop a little more leg drive and power to his swing to put balls in the gaps more often and make his speed on the basepaths an even bigger weapon, that doesn't seem like it's going to happen. So we're left with the Brett Gardner that we've seen over the past few seasons, a lightning-quick slap hitter who generates most of his value with his elite-level range and defensive skills, and in this lineup that's just fine. Gardner should see a little more time hitting leadoff against righties in 2012, but I think it's safe to say that another season around .260/.360/.370 with a .340 wOBA is in the cards.

Curtis Granderson, CF- Regress

C-Grand's situation is a bit tricky. I don't see his 2012 being a true regression in the sense that he'll drop back down to the levels of early 2010 or worse, but rather a decrease in the power output he had in 2011. I've talked before about how Curtis improving his approach at the plate and being more selective should help him repeat his performance, and I believe that it will. But I don't see the HR totals being sustainable this season and the net loss from that should result in a slight regression from his 2011 numbers, not that having a slight regression from a career year is a bad thing. When you consider his defensive inadequacies, at least as they're measured by most sabermetric defensive ratings, and the fact that he'll hit the 30-year-old plateau before the beginning of the season, there's the possibility of some decline beginning in that department as well. I don't expect it to be much, and I still expect him to put up All Star-caliber numbers again, but do believe C-Grand will experience a slight regression in 2012.

Nick Swisher, RF- Remain

Swish is another interesting case when it comes to picking one of the Rs for him. In 2010, Swish abandoned his traditional "work the count and draw walks" approach after working with the esteemed Dr. Long in the offseason for a more swing-happy tactic that produced very good results (.377 wOBA). This past season, he got back to his pitch-taking roots, boosting his BB rate back up to 15.0% from a career-low 9.1% in 2010 and sacrificing some hits and power as a result. He still finished with very good numbers (.358 wOBA), comparable to his 2010 season in many categories, and his final 3.8 WAR was not far off from the 4.1 he had in 2010. I see him finding a balance between his approaches from the past 2 seasons in 2012 and so I believe we'll see production from Swish similar to what he's already done, with a line somewhere in the .270/.370/.470, .360wOBA range. You could make the "playing for a contract" case for Swish, but at 31 he's a little beyond the age where he can have a career year, and that line I just suggested will still get him a damn good contract from somebody.

Winning!

2012-01-04T20:35:00.000-06:00

Hipster Horse is the fucking man! Goddamn plasma therapy must have worked like a motherfucker to produce that much swag.

Oh, and hanging out with Torrie Wilson? That's baller shit. Right, JR?

Good God almighty, indeed!

Photo courtesy of With Leather

AB4AR Top 30 Yankee Prospects Recap

2012-01-04T12:18:00.001-06:00

In case you missed any of it over the last week, here's the full and complete breakdown of the AB4AR Top 30 Prospects in one convenient, easy-to-use list:

1) Jesus Montero
2) Manny Banuelos
3) Dellin Betances
4) Austin Romine
5) Gary Sanchez
6) Mason Williams
7) Adam Warren
8) David Phelps
9) J.R. Murphy
10) Slade Heathcott
11) Brett Marshall
12) D.J. Mitchell
13) Corban Joseph
14) Graham Stoneburner
15) Brandon Laird
16) Ramon Flores
17) Rob Segedin
18) Bryan Mitchell
19) Dante Bichette Jr.
20) Zoilo Almonte
21) Cito Culver
22) David Adams
23) Ravel Santana
24) George Kontos
25) Mark Montgomery
26) Nik Turley
27) Tommy Kahnle
28) Kyle Roller
29) Branden Pinder
30) Tyler Austin

Click the links to check out each individual player report:

Spots 30-26

Spots 25-21

Spots 20-16

Spots 15-11

Spots 10-6

Spots 5-1

Happy Belated To A.J.

2012-01-04T07:24:00.000-06:00

I don't know how I could have missed this yesterday, with A.J. being such a vital part of the Yankee team and having a long history of success and big moments in pinstripes, but yesterday was A.J. Burnett's 35th birthday. So on behalf of myself and anybody else out there who might have let this important date in Yankee history slip his or her mind, happy belated birthday, A.J.! Hopefully you got some command of your fastball this year.

P.S.- There might be no better person in the world to forget a birthday for than A.J. Burnett.

AB4AR Top 30 Yankee Prospects: 5-1

2012-01-03T12:48:00.000-06:00

5) Gary Sanchez- C- Low-A Charleston

With a certain son of the Lord poised to make his full-season Major League debut in 2012, the new "next big thing" catcher in the Yankee system will be Gary Sanchez. Sanchez is still a baby at 19, but already has 2 very productive MiL seasons under his belt. After punishing the GCL and more than holding his own as an 18-year-old in 2010, Sanchez received a promotion to Low-A Charleston in 2011 and after a very slow start rebounded to finish with a very good .256/.335/.485 tripleslash, 34 XBH (including 17 HR), 52 RBI, and a .364 wOBA. His season was not without some controversy, though, as Sanchez was sent down to Extended Spring Training for a short time because of "attitude problems," and there are plenty of questions about his prospects of remaining a catcher moving forward.

Sanchez is a top prospect because of his bat, there's no doubt there. He already possesses well above-average power and can put the ball all over the field. His K rate is still a bit high (27.1% this past year), but when you remember the age you can live with it. Sanchez does offset that a bit with some good plate discipline; his 10.5% BB rate in 2011 was a new career high. But it will be his ability to improve behind the plate that will determine how hot a prospect Sanchez becomes as he moves to the upper levels. At 6'2"/195 he is already a big body and could get bigger as he matures. His defensive skills were questionable at best to start 2011 and he didn't get nearly the positive reviews that J.R. Murphy did in reports about his progress. And while I'd like to rank Sanchez higher because of his potential ceiling as a hitter, I think the concerns about his character are something worth holding against him. Young or not, it's not consistent to criticize Slade Heathcott about his character issues when all signs point to him being a dedicated player on the field, and then not address similar issues with Sanchez when his are on-field-related. I think Sanchez gets the jump to High-A to start 2012 to see how he handles the the next level, and if he's improved his defensive abilities and his attitude, he could be the new #1 prospect this time next year.

4) Austin Romine- C- Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre

Despite a down year for him in 2011, I still ranked Romine ahead of Sanchez because he's much closer to becoming a Major Leaguer and even got a taste of that life in 2011. Romine stumbled out of the blocks a bit in 2011 for Trenton and never fully recovered, but still finished with a respectable .286/.351/.378 line and a .332 wOBA for the Thunder in 373 PA. At the end of the season, Romine was shuffled up to Triple-A to fill a gap and then spent some time in September as the backup to Russell Martin after Francisco Cervelli went down. He only got 20 PA there, but did get the chance to show off his skill set and put himself in line for a possible backup role again this year.

Romine isn't as flashy as the other Yankee catching prospects with his bat, but may be the best defensively, even if there are mixed reports out there as to just how good he is behind the plate. Romine is 6'1"/195, and a right-handed hitter who has always had the reputation of having just enough power and general hitting skills to get by. Baseball America still projects him as a possible .270, 10-15 HR guy at the Major League level, which is enough to get you All Star consideration these days, but his lack of power in 2011 was a bit of a concern (.092 ISO in Double-A). He'll also have to tighten up his approach at the plate to be successful as a hitter at the upper levels, but the tools are all still there. With 2011 being the down year that it was for Romine, I expect the Yankees to start him off in Triple-A again in 2012 to see how his skills have progressed. If he shows enough, it might signal that he's ready to be the "real" backup to Martin and inspire the Yankees to move Cervelli.

3) Dellin Betances- RHP- Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre

The bigger, and potentially better, of the 2 remaining Killer Bs, Dellin Betances continued his march to the Majors in 2011, even if that march included a few missteps and some potholes here and there. After having a big breakout season in 2010 (2.19 FIP, 11.4 K/9, 2.32 BB/9 in 85.1 combined IP), Betances was on the radar as having an outside shot to make the show in 2011 if he continued to show that form. Unfortunately, his command regressed back to its usual inconsistent level (4.99 BB/9 in 126.1 total IP), but the stuff and strikeouts were still there and Betances earned a late-season promotion to Triple-A after making 21 starts for Trenton and posting a 3.42/3.70 ERA/FIP split. He's still a work in progress at 23, but the sky is still the limit for Betances because of the talent he possesses.

Betances' biggest strength and weakness is probably his size. He stands 6'8" and 245 pounds, an intimidating presence on the hill to even the most badass of guys, and uses that size and length to throw the ball right by hitters. But his height also gives him problems with repeating his delivery, and as a result his location and command of his electric stuff is usually hit or miss. And to call his stuff electric is not an overstatement. He's got his fastball back up to 95-98 MPH range as he's gotten further away from elbow surgery, and his power curve is damn near unhittable when he locates it. Betances is also working on a changeup, but that pitch is nowhere near the levels of the other 2. Along with the delivery/command issues, Betances is still learning how to effectively utilize all his pitches, something that I can give him a pass on because of all the time he's missed with injuries. He'll begin the 2012 season in the Triple-A rotation and will be watched very closely as a potential mid-to-late-season call up for the Yankees. His ability of lack thereof to harness his stuff will determine whether that comes in a starting or relief role.

2) Manny Banuelos- LHP- Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre

Manny Banuelos is kind of the polished yang to Betances' erratic yin as the other half of the Killer Bs. And for that, he is considered to be the top Yankee pitching prospect across the board. Banuelos has had a reputation as a pitcher advanced beyond his years almost since he was introduced into the Yankee system in '08, and expectations were high for him in 2011 after also reaching Double-A with impressive peripherals as a 19-year-old in 2010. But like Betances, Banuelos struggled with his command in 2011, both at Trenton and in his 7 late-season starts for SWB. The stuff was definitely still there as ManBan racked up 125 Ks in 129.2 combined innings at both levels, but the increased BB rate (almost 5.00/9 IP) did temper the buzz on him just a bit. That aside, ManBan is still looked at as a potential ace in the making and should be.

ManBan isn't nearly as physically imposing as Betances. In fact, he's not imposing at all at 5'10"/170. But what he lacks in stature he more than makes up for with a great combination of stuff, great composure on the mound, and a knack for pitching that almost nobody has at age 20. Manny's fastball has improved over the past year or so, and he can now throw it regularly in the low-to-mid 90s, his changeup can fool the best hitters in the world, and his curveball is rapidly becoming a plus-level offering. And when that combination is coming at you from the left side, you're in for a bad time as a hitter. The Yankees have a storied history of great lefty pitchers and Banuelos is poised to become the next on the list. He's already made his way to the highest MiL level in 3+ seasons, and could step in and pitch in the Yankee rotation this year if he had to. With guys like Phelps and Warren around, though, the Yankees don't have to rush him and likely won't. In a perfect world, ManBan will spend the entire 2012 season in Triple-A, working on refining his command and building up his innings totals. But if there are major rotation issues in the Bronx, he could be a "lightning in a bottle" option for the Yankees to consider.

And now, the first ever AB4AR #1 Yankee prospect...

/drumroll
Read more »

Introducing The Triple-R Game: The Infield

2012-01-03T09:30:00.001-06:00

The calendar has turned, and with that we move further away from the Winter Meetings, the Rule 5 Draft, and the meat and potatoes of the Hot Stove Season, and closer to the hors d'oeuvres of the real baseball season, that being pitchers and catchers reporting. With the Yankees remaining mostly inactive through this offseason, it's very likely that the team as it's constructed now is how we're going to see the Yankees open the 2012 season. If you haven't already started to come to terms with that fact, now would be a good time to start. If you have, then you're probably already starting to think about what kind of team it's going to be this coming season, which is only natural and a much better way of spending your time at the office. In looking at everybody's 2011 stats and trying to anticipate how they'll perform in 2012, there are really only 3 things a player can do: Regress, Rebound, or Remain where they are. Most projections are already out on the Yankee hitters and pitchers for 2012, but rather than try to pinpoint exactly what each player is going to do, I just want to set the bar for them by predicting which of the 3 R categories they best fit under. Today, we'll start with the infield.

Mark Teixeira, 1B- Rebound

By now we're all well aware of how bad Teixeira was from the left side of the plate in 2011, and what's more important is that he was aware of it and made fixing his left-side struggles a priority this offseason. Teix isn't that far removed from being a .300/.400/.550 hitter and is still just 32 years old, so he's not running on fumes yet. He may not leap back up to those levels in 2012, but solving his lefty problems should help boost his numbers above his 2011 totals, especially the .248 batting average, and make him the dangerous all-around hitter he's been.

Robinson Cano, 2B- Remain

A lot of people called for a dropoff in production from the best second baseman in baseball after his monster 2010 campaign, and all he did last season was come out and nearly replicate it. There should be no more doubting Cano anymore at this point as he's in the prime of his career and he's one of the best hitters in baseball. Some slight improvements could be made in his BB rate and defense, but to expect anything less than what he's done in the last 2 seasons would be silly.

Alex Rodriguez, 3B- Rebound

Maybe I'm just being too optimistic here because of the blood plasma procedure, but I think A-Rod bounces back some in 2012. Declining or not, the guy is due for some good health sooner or later, and if he gets it he's shown that he's still capable of being an above-average hitter when healthy. It's going to take some smart management of his playing time by Joe, but 130 games of A-Rod in 2012 should lead to better all-around production than what he provided in 2011.

Derek Jeter, SS- Regress

Watching Jeter find the fountain of youth after coming off the DL last year was fun, but the sobering reality is that Jeter will turn another year older in 2012. And 37-year-olds turning 38 in the middle of the season don't typically maintain the .327/.383/.428 pace that Jeter was on post-All Star break. I'd like to think that whatever Jeter did to help him return to form last year will help him from dropping back down to his late 2010-early 2011 levels, but a dip in production from his final .332 wOBA in 2011 should be expected.

Russell Martin, C- Rebound

Call me crazy here, but I think Russell Martin can have a 2012 that's better than his 2011. Last year it seemed like he was either on fire or standing at the plate without a bat even in his hand, and his final line of .237/.324/.408 leaves room for improvement. This year he won't be adjusting to a new stadium, new teammates, new pitchers in a new league, and I think that should help smooth out some of the ups and downs in his production. A few less bumps and bruises suffered behind the plate should help too, so hopefully the Yanks don't shy away from letting Jesus spell Martin regularly.

So what about you, Yankosphere? What are you anticipating from the pinstriped infield in 2012?

Yankee Apparently Trying To Date Hiroyuki Nakajima

2012-01-03T08:21:00.000-06:00

Which is weird, because I could have sworn they posted a fee to win negotiating rights so they could sign him to play for their baseball team. But according to Cash, the 2 sides are "still just talking." They have until Friday to come to an agreement, and so far there's no word on whether or not "still talking" means that the Yanks are going steady with Nakajima, if they're just friends, or if they actually want to add him as a utility infielder.

More Yankee Prospect List Fun

2012-01-02T16:14:00.000-06:00

For those of you (like me) who missed this over the weekend because you were busy drinking your face off to celebrate the new year, John Sickels released his Top 20 Yankee Prospects list. I'll direct you here for the complete list and Sickels' explanations, but quickly here's his top 10:

1) Jesus Montero
2) Gary Sanchez
3) Manny Banuelos
4) Dellin Betances
5) Mason Williams
6) Dante Bichette Jr.
7) David Phelps
8) Ravel Santana
9) Tyler Austin
10) Adam Warren

Interesting list to say the least. I know I haven't seen many lists with Sanchez above either of the 2 Killer Bs, but I do like how Sickels included Phelps and Warren, something that Baseball America did not do.

Just a reminder, the AB4AR Top 30 will conclude tomorrow with the Top 5. If you've been following along for the last week you should be shit-your-pants excited for this.

AB4AR Top 30 Yankee Prospects: 10-6

2012-01-02T11:15:00.000-06:00

10) Slade Heathcott- OF- High-A Tampa

Drafted as a compensation pick in 2009 for the Yankees failing to sign Gerrit Cole in '08, Heathcott has at times looked like great compensation and sometimes looked like a potential bust in the making. There were questions about Heathcott's durability and makeup when the Yankees drafted him, and he has lived up to those questions by suffering multiple shoulder injuries, the latest one shutting him down early this past season, and getting involved in an ugly incident in Charleston when he sparked a bench-clearing brawl with the Fraud Sawx Low-A affiliate. Whether you agree with the concerns about Heathcott's makeup or not (and I happen to be in the camp that doesn't), there's no denying that those 2 occurrences in 2011 make him a bit of a wild card in the organization moving forward.

And yet Heathcott still ranks as a top 10 prospect on my and many other people's rankings because the baseball talent and potential to be a great 5-tool player is there. Heathcott is still young, just turning 21 in September, and is a fantastic athlete at 6'1", 190 pounds. His natural athleticism, top notch speed, and great arm make him a potential Gold Glover-caliber outfielder, and he was making positive strides in his approach at the plate in 2011 before being shut down. After a 2010 season in which he posted a 33.9% K rate, Heathcott worked it down 27.0% this past season, and he balances his occasional hacker tendencies with a solid walk rate (7.85% in 2011, 12.0% in 2010). He still hasn't developed the ability to hit the ball in the air consistently, so the power numbers aren't there, but his .279/.347/.437 line in 242 PA at Charleston and 1 game at Tampa show that he's trending in the right direction. The shoulder problems are a huge concern, and it's unknown if Heathcott will be 100% recovered from his latest surgery at the start of the 2012 season, but if he is, I think the possibility is there to start him in Tampa and have him finish in Double-A.

9) J.R. Murphy- C- High-A Tampa

Usually the forgotten man in the group of young Yankee catching prospects, J.R. Murphy used 2011 to establish himself as a legitimate prospect at the position. Initially scouts questioned his ability to handle good pitching, but he made great strides behind the plate in 2011, enough that people now think he could stick there full time. And when you add that to his solid all-around work with the bat, J.R. Murphy is a name we should all start paying more attention to. Still just 20 years old, Murphy was putting together a fantastic season in both levels of A-ball in 2011 before a freak foul ball injury prematurely ended his campaign.

He's not a big kid by any means at 5'10"/170, but Murphy's approach at the plate is Yankee 101. He's patient and willing to work counts and take walks if he doesn't get anything he likes, and he also has a tremendous ability to put the barrel of the bat on the ball and make solid contact (just a 12.8% combined K rate at Charleston and Tampa). Murphy posted a .297/.343/.497 tripleslash for Low-A Charleston in 63 games to start 2011, good for a .359 wOBA, and although the numbers fell a bit upon his promotion to Tampa midseason (.259/.270/.365, .284 wOBA in 89 PA), the fact that he was able to continue to make contact and limit his strikeouts predicts future success at that level as well. Murphy is a good athlete with a good head on his shoulders, as his improved defense was reported to be the result of lots of additional work to improve his skills. If he can show that he's fully recovered from his injury, he could be another candidate for a split season in Tampa and Trenton in 2012.

8) David Phelps- RHP- Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre

One of the many examples of the Yankees' ability to find great value in the middle rounds of the draft, David Phelps is arguably the most well-rounded starting pitcher in the Yankee farm system. He breezed his way from Charleston to SWB in just 2 full seasons, posting sub-3.00 ERAs and FIPs along the way, and was among the group of young guys on standby to make spot starts in the 2011 Yankee rotation if needed. After throwing 158.2 innings in 2010, Phelps did experience a bit of a hiccup in 2011 as injuries forced him to miss some time, resulting in only 18 starts at Triple-A and only 114.1 total IP. But Phelps' production hardly suffered as a result, as he pitched to a 3.19/3.69 split with 7.55 K/9 and only 2.18 BB/9. Based on past history, it's likely that all of those numbers would have been even better had he not gotten hurt.

25 years old and good-sized at 6'3"/190, Phelps has shined in his MiL campaign thanks to the one thing that most college pitchers come into pro ball with that their HS counterparts do not: command. Phelps is a 3-pitch pitcher: fastball, curveball, change. His fastball sits low-90s and can be thrown for strikes on either side of the plate, his curveball has great movement and is used as an out pitch, and his changeup, while not rating as above-average, can be effective when he locates it. And it is that location and command that allows Phelps to be successful. In his 3+ years in the system, Phelps has never posted a BB/9 over 2.50 at any level, and it is his ability to consistently throw strikes and get ahead in the count that allows him to make the most of his stuff. Expectations are for Phelps to come into the 2012 season as one of the top starters in a stacked SWB rotation, and if he stays healthy he could be among the first in line for a promotion again should the Yankees need help.

7) Adam Warren- RHP- Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre

If David Phelps is David Phelps (and we know that he is), then it would be fair to say that Adam Warren is like a David Phelps 2.0. Also a polished college pitcher, Warren gets the nod over Phelps in the rankings because of his slightly better stuff and the fact that he had a healthy 2011. After having a dynamite 2010 campaign between High-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton, Warren was promoted to Triple-A to open the 2011 season and stayed there all year long. His first year at Triple-A was a bit of a learning experience, as evidenced by his 3.60/4.05 ERA/FIP split and 6.56 K/9 (far below the 9.77 K/9 he posted in 52.1 Double-A innings in 2010). But Warren racked up 152.1 innings, meaning the reigns will be officially off of him now as far as innings totals go, and he gained valuable experience in how to handle better hitters and mix his pitches to work through an order multiple times.

Warren is a little younger than Phelps at age 24, and a little bigger at 6'3"/215, and he uses that extra size to add a little more oomph to his pitching repertoire. Warren throws 3 types of fastballs (4-seamer, 2-seamer, cutter) all in the low-90s, a curveball that is swing-and-miss good when he locates it, and a circle change that he uses to generate groundballs. The curve still needs some work, but with stuff like this and solid command, Warren could project as a #3-#4-type starter at the Major League level. The Yankees were aggressive with Warren in starting him at High-A Tampa in 2010 and then promoting him to Triple-A to start 2011 and I expect that to pay dividends for him in 2012. If he can get back to what he showed in the lower levels with this experience, he should fall in line behind Phelps as the next to get the call if/when the Yankees need starting pitching.

6) Mason Williams- OF- SS Staten Island

There was probably no player in the entire Yankee MiL system that generated as much buzz in 2011 as Mason Williams did. Drafted in the 4th round of the 2010 draft and then signed to a $1.5 million bonus, Williams lived up to the hype in 2011 and then some. He hit .349/.395/.468 in 298 PA for SS Staten Island along with 20 XBH, 42 R, 31 RBI, and 28 SB, good for a .404 wOBA and a 149 wRC+. Williams also flashed elite defensive skills in center field thanks to his fantastic speed and a laser arm, and led the Staten Island Yankees to NY Penn League championship. Oh yeah, and he's a left-handed hitter. I said I was bigger on production than tools, but when you look at what Mason Williams produced in 2011 and the tools he has, it's an absolute no-brainer to include this kid in the top levels of any prospect list. When a guy only has 1 year of short-season A-ball under his belt and teams are already asking for him in trades for people like John Danks and Gio Gonzalez, you know you've got something special.

Williams is wiry at 6'0"/150, but being just 20 years old he has plenty of time to add some bulk to his frame. That lack of weight right now is likely the explanation for his lack of power (just 3 HR in 298 PA), but Williams used his speed to his advantage to take extra bases and will continue to do that as he advances through the system. While his patience at the plate could use a little work (6.7% BB rate), Williams did show a solid ability to put the ball in play in 2011 (just a 13.8% K rate), and that should serve him well as he continues to fine tune his swing and adjust to better pitching. And while his speed is a huge asset for him in the outfield and on the basepaths, Williams will need to improve his base stealing ability, as he has 12 CS to go along with his 28 stolen bags. Williams was considered very raw coming into the 2011 season after he only played in 5 GCL games late in 2010, so the fact that he had the type of season he did in 2011 and still has plenty of room for improvement is very exciting. Williams should get his first taste of a full season with Low-A Charleston to start 2012, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Yankees fast track him to Tampa if he continues to produce like this.

** The Top 5 is unveiled tomorrow. **

Some Good News To Start The New Year

2012-01-01T16:38:00.000-06:00

I'm still trying to recover from the last 2 days, and if there is truth to these reports from Jon Heyman about Andruw Jones re-signing, then that helps.

1 year/$2 mil plus incentives for the ideal guy to fill the lefty-masher 4th OF role that he exceled in this past season? I like!

Your regularly scheduled AB4AR will return tomorrow with spots 10-6 in the Top 30.

AB4AR Top 30 Yankee Prospects: 15-11

2011-12-30T13:00:00.001-06:00

15) Brandon Laird- 3B- Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre

Laird is teetering on the edge of no longer being a prospect after making some cameo appearances for the Yankees in 2011, but considering that cameo consisted of just 25 plate appearances I think it's fair to keep him on this list. 2011 actually represented a bit of a step back for Laird, who struggled out of the gate mightily at the plate before rebounding to finish with a .260/.288/.422 line and .310 wOBA in 489 PA. His banner year was 2010, when he hit .291/.355/.523 with a .383 wOBA for Double-A Trenton and took home the Eastern League MVP award for his efforts. As it stands right now, Laird is still a solid piece for the Yankees to have in their system at 24 years old, both as backup infield depth and as a potential trade piece.

Laird is known as a right-handed-hitting third baseman, but has also seen some time at first base and is even capable of playing the outfield in a pinch. He has decent size at 6'1"/215, but does not come off as physically imposing. Laird's calling card at the plate is a powerful swing capable of putting the ball over the fence on the regular and a disciplined approach that has always left him with solid K rates (17.2% in 2011). That discipline hasn't translated to a BB rate that you'd like to see from a power hitter, however, and that lack of walks was one of the main reasons for Laird's struggles in 2011, but he still possesses enough tools and experience to be a serviceable hitter at the Major League level. He's solid with the glove at both corners of the infield, but by not being at the head of the group of backup Yankee infielders, it's likely that Laird will start 2012 at third for SWB again.

14) Graham Stoneburner- RHP- Double-A Trenton

A college pitcher drafted in the 14th round of the '09 draft, Stoneburner appeared to be on the fast track to the upper levels after a dynamite 2010 season that saw him post a 2.73 FIP and rack up 137 K over 142 IP in A-ball. He started the 2011 season in Double-A but was quickly derailed by a neck injury that significantly affected his ability to repeat the success he has in 2010. Stoneburner made only 11 starts for the Thunder in 2011, pitching to a 4.17/3.82 line with 5.55 K/9 and 3.09 BB/9, and spent the remainder of his time on the mound doing rehab outings in the GCL and Charleston. Stoneburner pitched just 91.1 total innings in 2011, and with a track record of serious injuries going back to his HS and college days, there should be a bit of concern surrounding his health and durability coming into 2012.

Those question marks aside, there is a lot to like about Stoneburner as a pitcher. He has already established 3 pitches that he uses: a two-seamer that runs in the low-to-mid 90s and is flat out nasty when he locates it, a solid curveball, and a developing changeup. There were talks of moving Stoneburner to the bullpen prior to the 2011 season, most likely related to his injury history and lack of a 3rd pitch, but for now he'll stay working as a starter as he continues to improve the change. When he's on, Stoneburner has an excellent combination of stuff and command, his 2010 K and BB rates speaking to that, but he can still stand to improve his command to be more consistent and his ability to mix pitches as he goes through a lineup multiple times. He should be back to 100% to start the 2012 season and will almost certainly open back in Trenton, but he could be in line for a promotion if he shows the form he had in 2010.

13) Corban Joseph- 2B- Double-A Trenton

A 23-year-old second baseman cut from similar cloth as David Adams, CoJo stepped into Adams' vacated spot full time for the Thunder in 2011 after murdering the ball at High-A Tampa in 2010 (.302/.378/.436, .367 wOBA). After some growing pains in limited late-season action for Trenton in 2010, Joseph had a much better year in 2011, posting a .277/.353/.415 line and a .346 wOBA in 564 PA. Putting up solid offensive numbers has been the norm for CoJo at every level he's reached so far in the MiL system, and right now he's likely leading the charge of sub-Triple-A position players who could be poised to break in with the Major League team in the next 2 years.

Joseph is slightly built at 6'0"/170, and doesn't generate nearly the power with his left-handed swing as Adams, but he makes up for it with a smooth swing and smart approach at the plate. His ability to draw walks (10.5% BB rate in 2011; never lower than 9.8% in his MiL career) and make consistent contact (18.4% K rate in 2011) make him a prototypical Yankee-type hitter, and projects future success as he continues to move through the system. Defensively, Joseph is a bit more of a question mark than Adams, as he's not particularly smooth moving to the ball, and the Yankees have experimented with him at third base in the past. But his arm is solid and CoJo held his own at second in 2011, so some more work on improving his hands could be enough for him to stick there full time. With Adams rounding back into shape health-wise, CoJo should get the bump up to Triple-A in 2012. If he continues to produce at the rate he has been, he could be in line for a late-season cup of coffee in the show and some serious consideration for a utility IF role for the Yanks in 2013.

12) D.J. Mitchell- RHP- Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre

I'll probably take some heat for this selection, as I seem to be the only one out there who thinks this highly of Mitchell, but in looking at the guy's numbers I see no reason why people shouldn't be giving him more props. In a well-stocked 2011 SWB rotation, Mitchell pitched just as well as anybody, posting a 3.16 ERA and 3.98 FIP in 161.1 IP. He's advanced from A-ball to Triple-A in just 2 seasons, pitching 140+ innings in '09, 150+ in 2010, and then the previously-mentioned 161.1 in 2011, exhibiting the ability to be both effective and healthy. There are some questions about whether or not his future will be as a starter or a reliever, but either way Mitchell has shown that he can be a useful piece of a pitching staff. It's important to remember that this kid has only been pitching full-time since his sophomore year in college, so there's room for improvement.

The biggest thing holding Mitchell back is his stuff. He stands 6'2" but only weighs about 170 pounds and so he doesn't generate a lot of velocity. He's mainly a sinker-slider pitcher, with the sinker sitting high-80s-low-90s, and he also has a decent changeup and will mix in the occasional curveball. The lack of velocity on the sinker and lack of a true out pitch in his secondary offerings combine to have Mitchell not miss as many bats as you'd like to see (6.25 K/9 in 2011), and his BB/9 consistently sitting in the mid-3.00s suggests he needs to harness his command. But moving through the Yankee system in 2 years with the numbers he's put up points to there being plenty of talent and natural pitching ability there to work with, and adding some weight and tweaking his mechanics a bit could bring some of that added velocity necessary to make Mitchell a true top-tier pitching prospect. There is also the belief that Mitchell's stuff could play up out of the bullpen where he could throw his best pitches more often, so it will be interesting to see how he's used in 2012 when he'll start out in the SWB rotation again.

11) Brett Marshall- RHP- High-A Tampa

Another Tommy John Surgery recipient, Marshall went under the knife in 2009. Since returning to the mound in 2010, Marshall has flashed the type of electric stuff that future aces are made of, making him arguably the top pitching prospect below the current crop of Triple-A arms the Yankees have. In 2011, his first full season since the surgery, Marshall focused on building his innings and arm strength back up, and did just that by throwing 140.1 total innings at High-A Tampa over 26 starts. But he wasn't just pitching for quantity, he also pitched well, posting a 3.24 FIP and striking out 7.31 batters/9 innings. He'll turn 22 right before the start of the 2012 season and could be in for a big year as he continues to move further away from his surgery.

Marshall has decent size at 6'0"/195, and generates a ton of velocity on his 2 different types of fastballs he throws. His 4-seamer sits mid-90s and can touch the uppers at times, and his 2-seamer sits low-90s with plenty of movement in on right-handed hitters. He also throws a hard slider with a lot of late movement and is in the early stages of developing a curveball. With a repertoire like that, it's easy to see why the ceiling is high for Marshall. He has decent control of his stuff right now, but a 3.08 BB/9 in 2011 suggests that there's still plenty of room for him to tighten up his command to become even more effective. Like D.J. Mitchell, Marshall hasn't been pitching for very long, so his approach on the mound and mechanics aren't totally refined. As he continues to learn the nuances of pitching, the opportunity is there for Marshall to develop into a top-tier pitcher. There are some openings in the Double-A rotation after the promotion of the Killer Bs late last season, and I would expect Marshall to get bumped up and fill one of those spots in 2012.

Update For The Rest Of The Year

2011-12-30T10:31:00.000-06:00

OK, people. Here's the deal. I've got 15-11 going up this afternoon for the continuation of the AB4AR Top 30, but I'm heading up to Bahhston for New Year's with my buddies so that's the last you'll be hearing from me in 2011. I know, I know, it's enemy territory. How could I betray my own Yankee fandom like that? But no worries. I'm loaded to the gills with Yankee clothes and will be wearing my new Yankee hat with pride all weekend, so rest assured.

I'll be back in writing shape some time on Monday, January 2nd when I get back out to Wisco, so the plan is to pick up the Top 30 then and finish it out with the unveiling of the Top 10 on Monday and Tuesday. And then from there we'll focus on moving forward towards pitchers and catchers reporting. So from me to you, have a happy and safe (and hopefully like me, hammered) New Year's Eve and I'll see you on the other side of the calendar change.

AB4AR Top 30 Yankee Prospects: 20-16

2011-12-29T13:00:00.001-06:00

20) Zoilo Almonte- OF- Double-A Trenton

He's been in the Yankee system since 2007, signed as an international free agent at 16, but has consistently flown under the radar while other position players get more attention. Now 22, 2011 was Almonte's coming out party, as his performance at High-A Tampa (.298/.373/.522, .402 wOBA in 292 PA) forced people to take notice of him. Now Almonte is being looked at as a possible replacement for guys like Nick Swisher and Curtis Granderson in the next couple of years after a promotion to Double-A Trenton and after the Yankees added him to the 40-man roster prior to this year's Rule 5 Draft. His production dipped a bit at Trenton (.246/.304/.371, .308 wOBA in 191 PA), but Almonte possesses all the tools to become a very good player.

He's not very big at 5'11"/165, but Almonte is a very good athlete with a plus arm who has worked to make himself a better defensive player. At the plate, his-switch hitting approach is very patient and mature, evidenced by his consistently solid BB rates, and he has developed some more power over time despite his small frame (15 total HR in 2011). He'll never be a 30 or possibly even a 20-HR guy in the Majors, but he can hit to all fields and can stretch balls into the gaps for extra bases thanks to his speed. The big drop in production at Double-A suggests that Almonte still has some learning to do at that level in 2012 and he will likely start the season there, but he experienced a similar scenario when he made the jump for Low- to High-A ball in 2010, so we should be prepared for improvement across the board and perhaps a late season promotion to Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.

19) Dante Bichette Jr.- 3B- SS Staten Island

Like the Culver pick in 2010, many of us scoffed at the announcement that the Yankees drafted Dante Bichette Jr. with their 1st-round pick in 2011. And many of us were quickly shut up after the season Bichette put together in the GCL. After a slow start, Bichette went on a tear for the rest of the season, finishing with a .342/.446/.505 line, .438 wOBA, 23 XBH, and 47 RBI in 240 PA over 52 games, taking the GCL MVP with him in the process. He even made a cameo appearance for SS Staten Island, hitting a HR in his 2 games of late-season action, and was named the #1 GCL prospect by Baseball America ahead of teammate Ravel Santana. Unlike Culver, Bichette has already done a lot to prove the doubters wrong and establish himself as a legitimate Major League prospect.

Even at just 19 years old, Bichette is big and strong at 6'2"/215, and will likely put on some more weight as he moves through the system. He is a right-handed hitter and already has a very mature approach at the plate for a HS hitter, working counts and taking plenty of walks when he doesn't get anything to hit (12.5% BB rate). He's got good bat speed and power but also doesn't K a ton (17.1% K rate), suggesting an advanced eye at the plate and ability to recognize offspeed pitches. His future position has yet to be determined, but Bichette held his own at the hot corner this year and could stick with more work. One of his biggest assets is his attitude, likely forged by being the son of a former Major Leaguer, as there were reports of Bichette taking a leadership role with the young GCL team this past season and often getting in extra sessions of BP. He will likely start the 2012 season in Staten Island, but a quick promotion to Charleston to get a look at how he handles a full season of games is equally likely.

18) Bryan Mitchell- RHP- SS Staten Island

Drafted in the 16th round of the '09 draft out of high school, Mitchell is one of the more intriguing pitching prospects in the Yankee system. He had a pretty good year for the GCL Yankees in 2010, pitching to a 3.67 ERA and 3.90 FIP in 41.2 innings of work, and was bumped up to SS Staten Island full time in 2011. His performance there was uneven this past year, mainly due to inconsistent control of his stuff, but a 4.09/4.09 line and 8.61 K/9 from a 20-year-old kid isn't horrible and shows that there's plenty of talent there to work with.

Mitchell is a tall, lanky right-hander at 6'2"/175, and right now is still primarily a 2-pitch pitcher. His fastball sits low-90s but can hit 94-95, and his out pitch is a very good knuckle curveball. Right now there's no indication that Mitchell has started to add a 3rd pitch to his repertoire, something he will have to do to be successful at the upper levels, and he could stand to add some bulk to his frame to improve his velocity. Mitchell's biggest weakness right now is his command. He's had BB rates in the mid-to-upper 4.00s at both levels, but if he can start to harness his stuff, that knuckle curve can be devastating. Mitchell should still be looked at as a project, and I believe he should start this season in Staten Island again. But if he starts to show better command and development of a 3rd pitch, he should be moved up to Low-A to start stretching his arm out and to get more innings under his belt. The Yankees have been patient and careful with him so far; 2012 should be the time to take the training wheels off.

17) Rob Segedin- 3B- High-A Tampa

The Yankees' 3rd-round pick in the 2010 draft, Segedin is a bat-first prospect in a similar mold to Bichette, although he has some more years and experience on Bichette as a college player who turned 23 this year. After a quick audition in the GCL and SS Staten Island in 2010 (.243/.321/.400 in 78 PA), Segedin was assigned to Low-A Charleston to start the 2011 season and hit the ground running. In 260 plate appearances, Segedin hit .323/.396/.482, good for a .394 wOBA and a mid-season promotion to High-A Tampa. There he experienced some growing pains adjusting to a higher level of competition, hitting just .245/.312/.310, but he has the hitting makeup to adjust and improve this upcoming season and beyond.

Segedin is a right-handed hitter who stands 6'3" and weighs 220 pounds. His approach at the plate isn't quite as patient as some of the other top hitting prospects, but he makes up for that by making a ton of contact and a ton of good contact at that. He doesn't have the over-the-wall power you'd expect from a guy his size, but there's plenty of power to the gaps and a low K rate (15.0% in Charleston) that speaks to his ability to consistently make contact. Defensively, Segedin is a bit more of a question mark than Bichette at 3rd, and the Yankees have already started experimenting with him in the outfield, but his bat is more than enough to carry him as a legit prospect. I expect Segedin to follow a similar path in 2012 as the one he was on in 2011: a start back in Tampa to see how he's improved and then a mid-season promotion to Double-A Trenton if the progress is there.

16) Ramon Flores- OF- Low-A Charleston

In an organization that prides itself on patience and working counts at the plate, Flores might very well be the prospect who does that best. And as a 19-year-old who doesn't turn 20 until March of next year and a lefty, that makes him a very good prospect to follow. After hitting 3 levels of the system in 2010, mainly as an injury replacement, Flores settled into Low-A Charleston in 2011 and spent a full season there putting his advanced hitting talents on display. In 534 PA over 125 games, Flores posted a .265/.353/.400 tripleslash, a .350 wOBA, 39 XBH, 59 R, 59 RBI, and 13 SB. For a 19-year-old playing A-ball while most others his age were still in short-season leagues, that's pretty damn impressive. It's not hard to see why Flores is ranked where he is on this list.

What makes Flores' production at the plate even more impressive is the fact that he's not a big kid by any stretch of the imagination. Standing just 5'10"/150, calling Flores lanky might even be an overstatement, but he uses his smooth lefty swing to generate solid consistent gap power and his incredibly advanced batting eye to take plenty of walks (11.6% BB rate in 2011) if he doesn't get anything he likes. Continuing to fine tune his swing and adding some muscle will only make Flores more dangerous as a hitter as he moves through the system. He's also no slouch defensively, boasting an above-average arm in the outfield that should keep him there permanently after the Yanks experimented with him in different spots and even at first base in 2010. Like Zoilo Almonte, Flores hasn't gotten a ton of ink yet, but I expect 2012 to be his big introduction to the masses as a solid prospect as he makes a full-season return to High-A Tampa.

** Coming up tomorrow- Spots 15-11. **

AB4AR Top 30 Yankee Prospects: 25-21

2011-12-28T14:00:00.001-06:00

25) Mark Montgomery- RHP- Low-A Charleston

Of all the young nasty relievers currently in the Yankees' system, Montgomery might very well be the nastiest. He's not as big as Branden Pinder or Tommy Kahnle at 5'11''/205, but the numbers he put up in his first pro season in 2011 were even more eye-opening. Drafted in the 11th round of this year's draft, Montgomery was assigned to SS Staten Island and then quickly moved to Charleston after striking out 10 of the 19 batters he faced over 4 innings of work. At Charleston, Montgomery continued to miss bats at an incredible rate, striking out 41 more over 24.1 IP and racking up 14 saves. All totaled, Montgomery's K/9 was 16.2 over his 28.1 innings of work. I don't care what level you're doing it at, that's damn impressive.

Montgomery's fastball sits in the low-90s but can be dialed up to 94-95 when he needs to reach back for something extra. His biggest asset, though, something that neither Pinder nor Kahnle have established yet, is a good secondary pitch. Montgomery's slider is his big out pitch and has already been graded by scouts as "major league plus." He, like almost every young pitcher, still needs to harness his command of his stuff, but at just 21 and with 2 plus pitches in his repertoire, Montgomery is set up to become a Dave Robertston-type relief ace. He should start 2012 in Tampa and could be in line for another quick promotion if he dominates that league. If the command comes around, we could be looking at Montgomery as the next big piece of the Yankee bullpen in 2013.

24- George Kontos- RHP- Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre

A guy who is older than me probably shouldn't qualify as a prospect, but with the reinvention that Kontos has had to go through after Tommy John Surgery, and the fact that he is practically a Major League-ready reliever right now, I think that's enough to get him on the list. Originally drafted in '05 as a starter, Kontos experienced success rising through the system until the TJS shut him down in mid-2009. Since then, Kontos has rehabbed his arm and rebuilt himself as a very effective relief pitcher. In 89.1 innings at SWB in 2011, Kontos posted a 2.62 ERA/3.85 FIP with a 9.17 K/9 and 2.62 BB/9 to boot, and then struck out another 6 in his 7-outing, 6-inning cup of coffee with the Yanks at the end of the season.

Kontos is another big body (6'3"/215) and has seen his stuff play up a bit since the surgery and conversion to a relief role. He throws a low-90s fastball that he can run all over the place and did in his late-season audition with the Yankees, and a mid-80s slider that generates lots of swings and misses when it's on. He's got a few problem areas that could be cause for concern at the next level, but he'll be given a long look in Spring Training in 2012 and could very well win the last bullpen spot out of camp. If Soriano has injury problems again and the clock strikes midnight on Cory Wade, the opportunity is there for Kontos to get some higher-leverage innings. If he can throw strikes consistently, he could be a useful piece in the Majors next season.

23) Ravel Santana- CF- GCL Yankees

We haven't touched "toolsy young position player" territory since opening with Tyler Austin, and players don't get much more toolsy than Santana. Signed as an international free agent in 2009 at age 17, Santana tore up the Dominican Summer League in 2010 to the tune of a .322/.440/.533 tripleslash, .493 wOBA, 21 XBH, and 22 SB in 244 plate appearances. He was doing similar things in 2011 for the GCL Yankees (.296/.361/.568, .423 wOBA, 23 XBH, 10 SB) until his season was ended by a brutal ankle injury suffered on a stolen base attempt. Still only 19, Santana is long and lean at 6'2" and 160 pounds, but has plenty of time to add some weight as he advances.

Santana's hitting approach for such a young player is very mature, evidenced by his solid BB rates, and he has good bat speed and power for such a thin frame. He complements his hitting skill with tremendous speed and a great arm that make him a plus defender in center field and a constant threat on the basepaths. In a short time, Santana has already flashed the makings of an outstanding 5-tool player, and was ranked as the 7th best prospect in the Yankee system by Baseball America last week after being ranked as the #2 prospect in the GCL in 2011 behind another Yankee teammate. But his injury was a serious one, and it's still unknown how that will affect him in 2012. Early reports have him on schedule to start the season, but I expect the Yankees to err on the side of caution and ease Santana back into things in Staten Island. If he shows he's fully recovered, expect a quick promotion.

22) David Adams- 2B- Double-A Trenton

He hasn't played at the Double-A level since suffering a bad foot/ankle injury (sound familiar?), but before that injury David Adams may have been the best position prospect in the Yankee system not named after the son of God. He's a right-handed hitter who was consistently in the .290-.300 BA range with an OBPCano. At worst, Adams projected and probably still does project as a solid backup infielder, even at 24 years of age.

Adams started working his way back from the injury this year with limited time in the GCL and High-A Tampa, but amassed only 121 PA. His blossoming gap power was nowhere to be found in Tampa (only 3 XBH in 57 PA, all doubles), suggesting that he's still not quite back to full strength. Adams is scheduled to arrive in Tampa early to continue his rehab work before Spring Training begins in 2012, and injury or not, the Yankees thought enough of him to add him to the 40-man roster prior to the Rule 5 Draft. I would imagine Adams will start the season in Tampa again to test out the ankle and see how he feels, and if all signs are positive we can expect to see him back in Trenton before long.

21) Cito Culver- SS- SS Staten Island

The much-maligned 1st-round pick of the 2010 draft continues to try to silence the critics. Culver posted a respectable .312 wOBA in 2010 between the GCL and Staten Island, and put together a solid campaign for SI again in 2011, hitting .250/.323/.337, good for a .324 wOBA, in 312 plate appearances. The low SLG is a bit of a concern, but adding some weight to his 6'0" frame could help add some pop to his bat, as could some refinement to his switch-hitting swing. What he lacks in power, though, Culver makes up for offensively with his ability to draw walks (9.6% BB rate in 2011) and his speed on the basepaths.

Anybody still looking to criticize Culver or the Yankees for taking him should remember that he'll enter the 2012 season still just 19 years old. And a comparison of his 2010 totals to his 2011 show that he's trending in the right direction, especially in regard to his decreased K rate, down to 18.3% this past season. He'll never make any of us forget Derek Jeter in his prime with the bat, but Culver is more than capable of being an everyday shortstop at the next level thanks to solid range and a very strong throwing arm. And being so young, he's got plenty of time to improve his hitting and at least be able to step into the box at the Major League level and not get the bat knocked out of his hands. The next step is to see how Culver handles a full season of games, and that should start in 2012 with a promotion to Low-A Charleston.

** Check back tomorrow afternoon for spots 20-16. **

The Horse Is Getting Experimental With His Knees

2011-12-28T09:55:00.000-06:00

"Kobe Bryant can be credited with an assist to Alex Rodriguez.

According to multiple sources, the Yankees third baseman recently followed a recommendation from Bryant, the Los Angeles Lakers star, and traveled to Germany for an experimental therapy called Orthokine on his bothersome right knee.

The innovative procedure was performed on Rodriguez — with the Yankees’ blessing — within the last month, according to one source. The Yankees first cleared the procedure with the commissioner’s office to avoid the appearance that Rodriguez might be receiving impermissible treatment....

Orthokine involves taking blood from the patient’s arm and spinning it in a centrifuge, a machine used in laboratories to spin objects around a fixed axis. The serum is then injected into the affected area — in this case, Rodriguez’s knee."

I've watched 2 of the 3 Lakers games since the NBA season started and Kobe looks pretty good, so I guess this is a good attempt at keeping The Horse and his knees healthy and on the field in 2012.

One question, though. Did he get a discount on the price for doing 4 knees instead of just the one?

(Quotes courtesy of The NY Post)

AB4AR Top 30 Yankee Prospects: 30-26

2011-12-27T13:24:00.000-06:00

30) Tyler Austin- 3B- SS Staten Island

Drafted in the 13th round in 2010, Austin didn't see much playing time that year after breaking his wrist on a HBP in his 2nd pro game. As a result, he started 2011 in Extended Spring Training and then was moved up to the GCL when that season started. Austin thoroughly dominated the GCL and more than held his own for SS Staten Island after being promoted. All in all, Austin put up a .354/.418/.579 tripleslash in 47 combined games at both levels along with 26 XBH and a perfect 18-for-18 on steals.

Austin is young (just turned 20 in September), big (6'2", 200 pounds), and athletic. His calling card is his bat, which has already shown to be well above average. He has shown some pop to all fields and an approach at the plate that's slightly more advanced than it should be for your average 20-year-old. His final position has yet to be determined, but the Yankees appear to be settling on using him at the hot corner. Austin possesses all the tools to become a very good pro, and with nothing left to prove at the lower levels, he'll get his first real test in 2012 with a full season at Low-A Charleston. A solid showing there should have him shooting up a lot of people's rankings.

29) Branden Pinder- RHP- SS Staten Island

Pinder is practically cut from the pages of the "future big-time reliever" catalog. He's a big body (6'3", 210), a power arm, and a 22-year-old college pitcher who was drafted in the 16th round of the 2011 draft. After being assigned to SS Staten Island, Pinder became the team's closer almost immediately and he did not disappoint. In 31 IP over 24 appearances, Pinder allowed only 24 combined baserunners and 4 ER, good for a 1.16 ERA and 1.94 FIP, while batters hit just .152 off of him. And just for the sake of padding the kid's stat line, I'll also mention that he was a perfect 14-for-14 in save opportunities and had an 11.03 K/9.

Pinder uses his big body to bring the thunder, a lively fastball that sits mid-90s and above, but as a college pitcher he possesses some command to pair with that great stuff as evidenced by his sterling 1.45 BB/9. He needs that command to be successful right now, as Pinder doesn't really have a solid secondary offering. But like Austin, he's already proven that he's too good for the short season leagues and he should start 2012 in Charleston, where he needs to work on improving his offspeed pitches. If he continues to put up these kind of lights out numbers, there's no reason for him to not be on the fast track up through the system, especially if he develops a reliable offspeed pitch.

28) Kyle Roller- 1B- High-A Tampa

Whether it's for better or worse, Roller is almost a Nick Johnson clone. He's a big, burly left-handed hitter at 6'1"/235 with a solid combination of power and patience at the plate. After putting together a solid season in the NY Penn League in 2010, Roller was promoted to Charleston to start the 2011 season and then received a promotion to Tampa after hitting .305/.379/.545 for the River Dogs in 50 games. His 2011 totals are nothing to sneeze at (.284/.371/.482 w/ 31 2B, 16 HR, 57 RBI, and a wOBA in the .380s in 455 PA), but Roller often falls below the radar when compared to other higher-profile Yankee hitting prospects.

The lack of talk could be attributed to Roller being a college hitter, already 23 years old, and to him not being the most athletic cat on the block. He's really only built to play first base, and could have a future as a DH on the horizon if he doesn't show the ability to play the field well at higher levels. But Roller can hit, and has shown the kind of patience that the Yankees love (9.0% BB rate in High-A). He might start the season in Tampa again, but should receive the bump to Trenton quickly. He's definitely not the type to blow you away with mind-blowing peripherals or tools, but he's a solid hitter worthy of our attention in 2012 as he takes the next step.

27) Tommy Kahnle- RHP- Low-A Charleston

Like Pinder, Tommy Kahnle is a big power pitcher at 6'1"/220 who comes at you with the big, stinky cheddar. A high-profile Division II pitching prospect in the 2010 draft, Kahle opened eyes immediately with 25 Ks in just 16 IP in 2010 for SS Staten Island. Expectations were high for Kahnle in 2011 as he moved to Charleston, but his ascent hit a bit of a speed bump as he experienced problems with command (5.44 BB/9). Despite that, Kahnle is still an intriguing prospect who could be fast tracked in 2012 if he bounces back to his 2010 form.

Kahnle's fastball sits mid-90s but can be dialed up to 97-98 when needed. His usual secondary offering is a changeup, but the Yankees have been trying to get him to develop a slider, which could have been a contributing factor to his higher walk totals in 2011. In 97 career MiL innings, Kahnle has 137 strikeouts, so the stuff is clearly already there as a foundation for future relief success. And command issues or not, Kahnle did experience some bad luck in 2011 as his FIP was almost 2 runs lower than his 4.22 ERA. He'll still be 22 when the 2012 season starts, so Kahnle has time to refine his skills. If all goes well, we could see him finish next season in Trenton.

26) Nik Turley- LHP- High-A Tampa

Drafted in the 50th round out of high school in '08, 2011 was Turley's 4th season in the Yankee system and the first in which he finally started to put the pieces together. 22 years old, Turley is a long, lean lefty, standing 6'7" and 195 pounds. In 15 starts for Low-A Charleston this past season, Turley posted a 2.51 ERA/3.53 FIP along with an 8.96 K/9 and 2.30 BB/9 in 82.1 IP, earning himself a late-season promotion to Tampa. He only made 2 starts there with limited success, but he did enough for the River Dogs to make himself one of the more intriguing starters in the lower levels.

He doesn't blow anybody with his fastball, but his height and arm angle can give hitters fits, and Turley can maximize the value of both of those things by being a lefty. He was considered a project and the Yankees have been patient with him so far, but he needs to develop some consistency with both his stuff and his command. 2012 will be a big year for Turley in terms of keeping himself in the ever-crowded mix of Yankee starter prospects. Adding some bulk to his frame could go a long way in helping him take the next step to the higher levels.

** Coming up tomorrow- Spots 25-21. **

Another Trade Possibility To Consider

2011-12-27T08:11:00.001-06:00

(No word on whether or not Joba's TJS rehab includes the same Mickey Mouse workouts he did in 2010)

With all or almost all of what would have been considered "real" trade targets for the Yankees either already traded or re-signed, it's looking like a near certainty that we won't be seeing any new rotation arms for 2012. But there is one guy on the Yankees' roster who could bring back some value in a trade and actually might make sense to move. That guy is Joba Chamberlain. I know he's still injured and won't be pitching until some time in the summer of 2012, but early reports have him ahead of schedule in his rehab, and at this point he might hold more value to the Yankees as a trade piece than as a piece of the 25-man roster.

The "Joba as a Starter" experiment has already been conducted by the Yankees, and despite there still being pleas from those in the Yankosphere to give it another go, the Yankees have never shown interest in reviving that option. They're set with their 5-man rotation right now and have Hector Noesi on standby as the 6th starter if/when needed. And with the emergence of D-Rob in the bullpen in 2011, it's suddenly become a little crowded at that inn as well. Joba would be looking at another partial season behind Mo, two more years behind Soriano and multiple years behind D-Rob before he could be considered a serious contender for even a setup role. And with the Yankees already having a stockpile of young arms who can step in and cover middle relief innings, Joba becomes less important as an insurance policy and space filler in that role.

And yet, by the time he is fully recovered from his Tommy John Surgery, Joba will still be a 26-year-old power arm with experience as a starter. Last time I checked, the Yankees weren't the only team in need of starting pitching help, and Joba is dangerously close to becoming an afterthought in the Yankee organization for the reasons mentioned above, so why not try to stir up some interest around baseball and see if there's a market for him? I'm not saying they SHOULD move Joba, but if Cash was trying to sell people on Francisco Cervelli earlier in the offseason, he might as well see what the market is, if there even is one, for Chamberlain. They won't get the value in return that they would have a couple years ago, but you have to think Joba could bring back more than A.J.

Precursor To The Top 30

2011-12-26T19:02:00.000-06:00

At long last, the AB4AR Top 30 will begin to be unveiled tomorrow. But before I jump in headfirst and open myself up to your criticism for why I didn't put this guy in or why that guy is ranked so low, I figured I'd give you a look inside my mental lab so you know how I came up with my list.

As someone who admittedly doesn't have enough time to devote to following the Minors as I'd like to, I rely heavily on the input of others and the prospect lists of others, namely Mike Axisa of RAB, EJ Fagan of TYA, and Baseball America. I also try to read as many scouting reports and prospect profiles on players as I possibly can, and then I combine all of that with my own set of judging criteria. I tend to put much more weight on consistent production and improvement than tools and potential, as I think guys who have advanced through the system and gotten themselves closer to the show are more of a known commodity and sure thing than lower-level guys. As a result, you'll generally see the bottom 15 of the list heavier on short-season and A-ball guys and the top 15 with more Triple-A guys.

Other things you should know: I have an unhealthy love affair with power relief arms. Guys who are already settled into a relief role can be moved through the system more quickly and, in my opinion, more accurately projected as Major League players. When I see guys come in and start blowing hitters away as a relief pitcher, at any level, I get excited, so be prepared to see a few relievers on the list that you might not have expected. And this one is something that most intelligent baseball fans probably agree with, but I like hitters who already have the ability to take pitches, draw walks, and avoid strikeouts. It shows a more advanced hitting approach, so if you can do it at the low levels it's one less thing you have to learn when you make it to the Majors.

So there you have it. A quick look inside the process that determined this inaugural list. Now that we've covered that, here's a quick look at some of the guys who just missed the cut.

AB4AR Top 30 Honorable Mentions

37) Ryan Pope- RHP- Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre

Recently converted to the bullpen after showing some promise as a starter, Pope made his Triple-A debut this year. He had a rough go, but has a combination of solid stuff and decent command that could lead to future success as a late-inning guy if he can harness both of them.

36) Jose Ramirez- RHP- High-A Tampa

Ramirez had a very good debut in 2010, but took a step back this season as he moved up to High-A Tampa. The stuff is there but the command was spotty at best. The good news is he'll be just 22 when the season starts, but a bounce back to his 2010 form is needed to make him a serious prospect.

35) Evan DeLuca- LHP- SS Staten Island

Flashed the stuff to draw interest for Staten Island in 2011, but needs to show some command.

34) Melky Mesa- OF- Double-A Trenton

Your classic "tools" guy, Mesa has never been high on my radar. He'll be 25 years old this year and still in Double-A, and hasn't gotten closer to cutting down on his strikeouts than he was in '06.

33) Evan Rutckyj- RHP- GCL Yankees

See "DeLuca, Evan."

32) Chase Whitley- RHP- Double-A Trenton

He's moved through the system quickly in 2 years, but Whitley hit a bit of a speed bump when he made the jump to Double-A in 2011. As a reliever, though, he should continue to ascend if he can show improvement in 2012.

31) Angelo Gumbs- SS- SS Staten Island

Drafted in the 2nd round of the 2010 draft, Gumbs has tools for days, is only 19, and could very well turn into a better shortstop prospect than 1st-round pick Cito Culver. If he continues to put everything together in 2012, there's no reason he can't finish the year in Tampa.

** Check back tomorrow for prospects 30-26 **

A Belated Bullpen Stocking Stuffer

2011-12-26T06:59:00.000-06:00

In case you haven't been keeping up with Joba's rehab from Tommy John, he provided an update early on Christmas Eve day the other day:

"Update on arm: feels great, throwing bullpens for a couple weeks. Now taking 2 weeks n resting my arm. Start throwing after the New Year"

If he's been throwing for a couple weeks already, that would put him ahead of schedule for his return. Instead of June-July, we could be seeing Joba back in the 'pen some time in May, assuming he continues to progress on his schedule and doesn't have any setbacks. As I've stated here before, he probably falls behind Mo, D-Rob, and Sour Puss in the bullpen hierarchy, making him more of a luxury than a vital piece at this point. But you never know what can happen with injuries, so the more late-inning depth the Yankees have, the better.

A Quick Christmas Message

2011-12-24T15:00:00.000-06:00

It's that time of year again. It doesn't seem like I've been doing this for that long, but somehow the 3rd Christmas here at AB4AR is almost upon us. And while Cash and the rest of the front office don't seem willing to fill out their Christmas wish list or fill our fan stockings with a new starting pitcher, at least we can all take happiness and joy from knowing that we get to share Christmas with our friends and families. Or something sentimental like that.

In all seriousness, I want to thank everybody out there who supports AB4AR in one way or another for helping to make this the most enjoyable year I've had running the site. Whether you're reading, commenting, telling your friends, whatever, it's that interest that makes doing this worthwhile. So I thank you all for that. And a big thanks to all my colleagues over at The Yankee Analysts for thinking enough of my work to extend an invite and bring me aboard a few months back. To work with them and to be able to get my thoughts and opinions on the Yankees out to a wider audience has been fantastic.

So to everybody out there who reads, I hope you all enjoy your time with your families over the next few days, and I hope you continue to read and follow the site. As is tradition here at AB4AR, I leave you with what is undoubtedly the greatest Christmas song in the history of music. Merry Christmas, ya filthy animals.

Maybe This Whole Payroll Cutting Thing Started Earlier Than We Thought

2011-12-23T14:34:00.000-06:00

Consider:

- The Yankees luxury tax for 2011 will be $13.9 million.

- The luxury tax they paid last year was $18 million.

- The luxury tax they paid in 2009 was $25.7 million.

Maybe I'm just slow on the uptake here, but I was surprised to read that today. But now that I think about it, that makes perfect sense. After they made their big splash with CC/A.J./Teix before '09, we haven't seen the Yankees be very active in the free agent market or at the trade deadline. Lot more short, cheap deals like Bartolo, Freddy, Eric Chavez, etc. Maybe there were already plans in the works to trim payroll before the new CBA even came to be.

Baseball America's Top 10 Yankee Prospects Revealed

2011-12-22T14:30:00.001-06:00

(New prospect list means time for a new Jesus Photoshop)

And prospect day continues here at AB4AR. Probably as a way to temper the buzz that was sure to come once I started to drop hints about the AB4AR list, Baseball America has released their Top 10 Prospects list for the Yankees this year. That list is as follows:

1) Jesus Montero
2) Manny Banuelos
3) Dellin Betances
4) Gary Sanchez
5) Mason Williams
6) Dante Bichette Jr.
7) Ravel Santana
8) Austin Romine
9) J.R. Murphy
10) Slade Heathcott

My quick thoughts:

- No surprise in the top 3. Montero, ManBan, and Betances are pretty much the unanimous top 3 across the board anywhere you look, which probably explains why every team is asking for at least 2 of them in any trade for a starter.

- I get Sanchez at 4, but I still think Austin Romine is being undervalued a bit because of his lower ceiling. Sanchez is still a long ways away from the show; Romine has already been there. In my book that makes him a higher-ranking prospect.

- In that same vein, I can understand being high on Bichette and Santana, but to rank them solidly in the top 10, ahead of Major League-ready guys like Romine, is a bit of stretch. If BA really projects Romine as a .270 hitter with 10-15 HR and good defense in the Majors, that should be enough to rank him higher than 2 guys who have yet to play a full professional season.

- In THAT same vein, it's crazy to me how David Phelps and Adam Warren keep getting overlooked. These are guys who have succeeded at every level of the Minors and could step in and pitch in the Majors tomorrow. How that track record gets factored in less than a good short season is beyond me.

- With the inclusion of Santana, the Yankees are suddenly stacked with high-ceiling OF prospects. Williams and Heathcott have been on the radar for a while, but now there's 3 guys in the top 10 who could be future CFers. It should be interesting to see how fast or slow the Yankees move these 3 this year if they perform well, especially considering C-Grand's contract will be coming up in the near future.

The Fun And Frustration Of Being A Yankee Fan On A Budget

2011-12-22T10:00:00.001-06:00

As the Yankees continue down their path of self-imposed penny pinching, focusing on the big picture and future benefits of cutting payroll for 2014 rather than the immediate benefits of signing someone like Roy Oswalt or Hiroki Kuroda, we Yankee fans and distinguished members of the Yankee blogosphere suddenly find ourselves in some unfamiliar territory. By now we are (or should be) used to the Yankees not always getting their man during Hot Stove season. But to see them take a backseat approach to the offseason proceedings and not really attempt to get any man or even make other teams think that they're trying to get their man? That's Dimension X-level weirdness to many, and it's already starting to get to some of us.

Because we know the Yankees have needs. They aren't glaring needs, but any relatively smart Yankee fan knows that this team has needs, mainly another big-time starter. Cash himself came out and openly admitted that to us at his year-end press conference when he name dropped improving the rotation. Sure, bringing back CC was a great move, and Freddy provides depth, but did bringing back 40% of 2011's rotation to join up with the remaining 60% really make the 2012 rotation any BETTER? Probably not. And we've been conditioned to expect big things when the Yankees make it known what their target areas of need are. But this offseason we've seen them content to linger in the background, seemingly ignoring the very holes in their roster that Cash admitted they have while those who could conceivably fill those holes are snatched up by the competition. This is frustrating.

The frustration, almost certainly rooted in our being conditioned to expect the Yankees to always get their guy, is understandable to a degree. With the resources and money at their disposal, there is no reason that the Yankees couldn't have snatched up both C.J. Wilson and Yu Darvish, continued to pursue guys through a trade, and build a brand new mega-rotation. But the Yankees appear to have decided to re-allocate their resources, namely the ones with the $$ signs, and plan for the future rather than address the present. It's not a familiar strategy for us as fans to see play out. New CBA or not, the Yankees are still the biggest dog in the uncapped MLB yard, and they shouldn't be letting the smaller, weaker dogs come up and steal their Kibble. But that appears to be the path they're planning to take to achieve their future goals, which means we could have to get used to this kind of offseason for the next few years.

On the positive side, in focusing so much on controlling costs and moving further away from the quick-trigger, free-wheeling spending days of the early 2000s, the Yankees are setting the stage for their latest crop of young homegrown talent to step up and establish themselves, and that should be fun to watch. With Bernie and Andy and Jorge gone, and Jeter and Mo closer to the ends of the playing careers than their primes, the core of the most recent dynasty is almost gone. Now we get to see who can step up and replace them, who can live up to the hype, who can fly under the radar and surprise us, and who can start to build the foundation to the next great Yankee dynasty.

Will Manny Banuelos replace Andy as the big-game lefty in the rotation? Will Mason Williams blossom into a new generation Bernie Williams 2.0? We don't know. But what we do know is that the Yankees aren't trading all these young assets off like baseball cards to fill the holes they don't fill through free agency anymore. And if the Yankees aren't going to be the big spenders on the block for the foreseeable future, and aren't going to trade their youth for a quick fix, they are going to have to fill holes from within, which means it's very likely that many of these guys are going to get a real shot to become the next generation of Yankee greats.

It'll suck if the Yankees continue to be bystanders during the next few offseasons, no doubt. But to be able to witness the potential beginning of the next generation of homegrown Yankee stars isn't a bad trade-off. And while offseasons might not be quite as exciting as we're used to while the cash isn't being thrown around, the infuse of young talent and all the possibilities that lie with it should ensure that the next few seasons are exciting.

The AB4AR Top 30 Is Coming

2011-12-22T07:48:00.000-06:00

I know I've been teasing this forever, and I teased it again yesterday on the Facebook page, but this time it's for real. It's really happening. No more dragging it out and promising dates and then missing them like Dr. Dre making the "Detox" album. The first ever AB4AR Top 30 Prospects list is done and it's coming out. I sat down, did the research, ranked the players, and it's finally going to happen. This is truly a Christmas miracle.

Starting next Tuesday, December 27th, the list will be unveiled in posts of 5 players per day. It will conclude with the top 5 on January 3rd, pretty fitting with the whole "new year" theme. Clearly I put a lot of thought into this.

So be on the look out for the Top 30 starting next week and prepare your comments for all the crummy choices I made and guys I left off. That's what prospect lists are about, right?

Oh Come On!!

2011-12-21T09:14:00.000-06:00

You''ll willingly scrape Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon off the bottom of the scrap heap last year on one-year deals when each represented significant risk, but won't shell out for a bona fide top-tier starter who's practically throwing himself at you this year on another one-year deal?

I don't get it.

Oswalt On A One-Year Deal? Absolutely!

2011-12-20T19:42:00.000-06:00

It's real simple. If this report from Jerry Crasnick is true, and all indications are that it is, then Brian Cashman should be on the phone with Roy Oswalt's agent right now. And within a few days Roy Oswalt should be the newest member of the New York Yankees. Because right now, Roy Oswalt is exactly what the Yankees are looking for in every way.

In Oswalt, the Yankees are getting just the type of player they need, a true top-of-the-rotation stud. And not just one with a couple good seasons under his belt, but a real true stud. A guy with All Star Games and big postseason performances and Cy Young votes under his belt. Inserting Oswalt behind CC in the rotation immediately makes it better AND deeper than it is right now. And in Oswalt, the Yankees are getting a guy who is highly motivated and will be busting his balls to pitch well and have a great year. Oswalt's no fool. He knows there's no market out there for him right now for a multi-year contract because he's such a ticking time bomb with his bad back. If he can have one good year where he's healthy the whole time, he can probably convince a club to give him one more multi-year deal before he retires. He won't be coming in just to hang on and collect a paycheck; he's playing for a career. Bad back or not, "former ace and Cy Young candidate with a huge reason to pitch well" = "Good Investment."

And if it doesn't work out? He gets hurt again, misses a lot of time, misses the season, whatever. You know Cash wouldn't be stupid enough to move A.J. or Hughes because he would want a contingency plan for Oswalt, so the rotation would be right back where it would have been if the Yankees didn't sign Oswalt, which is where it is right now. And on a one-year deal, Oswalt poses little or no threat to the Yankees' continuing-to-become-more-apparent plan to cut payroll for 2014.

But if it does work out, and Oswalt comes into camp in great shape, stays healthy throughout the season, and pitches to the ability of his still-very-existent talent? Then the Yankees have to get vaulted right back to the top of the list of World Series favorites. And Joe can feel a hell of a lot more confident coming up with a postseason rotation in 2012.

Anything between those two outcomes is gravy, even if it's just a handful of starts, because it would almost assuredly be better than what A.J. would give the team as a 5th member of the rotation. And when you know it's a one-year deal, you just hope for the best and know that no matter what happens, you're out from under it and free after one year. It's basically the same situation the Yankees were in last offseason when they signed Freddy and Bart. And even at more money, Oswalt is still a better investment than many of us thought Colon and Garcia were because of the higher reward potential.

We look at the rotation and we see a lot of 3s and 4s, most of them with question marks attached related more to how much worse they'll do in 2012 than better. Roy Oswalt is a no-doubt upgrade over all of those guys and he's available for a one-year commitment. If the Yankees are or were considering giving $12 million for one year of Hiroki Kuroda's services, then they shouldn't even have to think about picking up the phone to make a similar deal to Oswalt.

How The Cuddyer/Willingham Contracts Help Nick Swisher (And Potentially Hurt The Yankees)

2011-12-20T10:00:00.001-06:00

Nick Swisher will head into the 2012 season on the last year of his current contract, one that has been incredibly friendly to the Yankees considering the production they have gotten since ~~fleecing Kenny Williams~~ trading for Swish prior to the 2009 season. In typical Yankee fashion, they have not discussed a new contract for Swish, instead choosing to pick up his 2011 option and then see where they are after the season. That could end up working out well for Swish if he has a big year in 2012, but that won't be known for months. What is known is that two players comparable to Swish both signed new contracts this past week, essentially laying the groundwork for a starting point to Swish's new contract.

Josh Willingham took a 3-year/$21 million deal from the Minnesota Twins to replace the departed Michael Cuddyer, who then signed a 3-year/$31.5 million deal with the Colorado Rockies. If we're using these two as a measuring stick for Swish, at first glance it appears that we're looking at three incredibly similar players.

There's a little more consistency to Willingham's wOBA plot (purple), and some surprisingly similar fluctuation to Swish's and Cuddyer's breakdowns (green and orange respectively), but on average these guys appear to be basically the same hitter. Swish sports a .254/.360/.466 tripleslash, .357 wOBA, and 117 wRC+ in 4,389 career PA, Cuddyer a .272/.343/.451, .345 wOBA, 111 wRC+ line in 4,555 PA, and Willingham a .262/.371/.477, .364 wOBA, 123 wRC+ line in 3,166 career PA. All three guys have some pop and some patience at the plate to help cover for the fact that none of them are natural "elite" hitters in terms of batting average. Working in these broad strokes, there is some basis for Swish's market value being set in a similar $8-12 million range

The advantage that Swish has over his counterparts is time, both in terms of the time he has on his side as a younger player and what he's already done with the time he's spent in the Majors. Swish will be 31 next year, still in his physical prime, while both Cuddyer and Willingham will turn 33 before Opening Day 2012. Those 2 years in hand put Swish in a much better position to demand more years and more money. And looking at what Swish has already accomplished in a similar span of years helps to further separate him from Cuddyer and Willingham. When these 3 players are compared in terms of WAR, the gap between them starts to increase in Swish's favor.

In a comparable amount of playing time, Swish (blue) has racked up significantly more cumulative WAR than both Cuddyer (green) and Willingham (red). This added value for Swish can be attributed to his durability (at least 131 games played in every season since his first full one in '05 and at least 150 games played in every season since '06), his higher BB rate (13.5% career), and Swish establishing himself as an above-average defensive player at multiple positions over the span of his career. Swish has provided positive defensive value as a corner outfielder and first baseman while Cuddyer and Willingham haven't done anything to get themselves confused for Gold Glovers anywhere in the field. Not only is he younger, Swish is a more well-rounded baseball player who produces at a higher level.

That being the case, what kind of deal can Swish expect to get if guys who rate lower than him are pulling in 7 and slightly over 10 mil per year in their new deals? As a player who will still be younger than Cuddyer and Willingham were this offseason, and one who has a better health track record, a 4-year deal should be expected to be the minimum offered to Swish in terms of contract length, with 5 not being out of the question if he has another good season in 2012. And if he does continue his 3-year trend and have another good all-around season, Swisher would be in position to expect a significant boost in salary from the $10+ million he'll make this coming season. $14-15 million per year wouldn't be out of the question, perhaps more if some teams were really interested in Swish's services.

And this is where things could get interesting for the Yankees. One way or another, they're going to need a right fielder after the 2012 season unless they break their normal operating procedure and negotiate with Swish during the season. But if the Yankees are serious about getting down to $189 million in payroll for 2014, which seems more and more likely with each passing day, then a "4-5-year/$15ish million per"-type contract might not fit into those plans. As Larry Koestler pointed out yesterday, the OF free agent market in 2012 isn't a particularly deep one, so Swish very well could be the best available right fielder. And there isn't anybody in the upper levels of the Yankee system who they can expect to step into the full-time RF role in 2013, unless Zoilo Almonte or Melky Mesa go completely off-the-charts H.A.M. in 2012. Swish is going to have all the bargaining power with the Yankees and the Yankees are going to have a serious decision to make with Swish.

They could try to paint with broad strokes like we did earlier, show how Swish's career offensive numbers compare to guys like Cuddyer and Willingham, and attempt to lowball him on an offer for $10-12 million a year. But if he posts his fourth straight season of 3-4-WAR production, Swish and his agent will know he's worth more than that, and they'll be proven right when other teams who are interested offer more. If the Yankees weren't willing to get involved with a pitcher in his early-30s this year when the price was around $15 million per for 5 years and they had a clear need for rotation help, how likely are they going to be to get involved with an outfielder in his early-30s for the same figures when they don't have a clear need for offensive help?

There's a lot that could happen that could affect this situation once the season begins. Swish could get injured and miss a lot of time, the Yankees could have some big improvements or regressions from some key lineup members in 2012 that could make losing Swish's production easier or more difficult to handle in 2013. Who knows? But right now, with the deals Cuddyer and Willingham got, and how favorably Swisher compares to them as a baseball player, the price and negotiating power in a deal are both increasing for Swish. And if the Yankees have a desire to include Swish in their future plans AND trim payroll, that might not be a good thing for them.

(Graphs via FanGraphs. Click for larger version)

Totally Nailed The Darvish Bidding

2011-12-20T07:37:00.000-06:00

I know it was only 5 days ago, so it's not like I possess any kind of real prognostication skills, but I do recall making this statement after the bidding period closed for Yu Darvish last week:

"With some estimates on the winning bid being in the $40-50 mil range, there isn't much chance the Yankee bid will be the winner. Smart money would be on the Rangers. After losing Wilson they have the biggest need for a high-end starter."

Haha, how do ya like them apples? Didn't need any fancy insider information or anonymous league sources, just good old fashioned logic and my keen Polish intellect. Yes sir, I can smell a job offer from ESPNNY on the horizon. Andrew Marchand and Buster Olney better watch their fucking backs because I've got my finger on the pulse of Major League Baseball.

P.S.- $51.7 million just for the rights to negotiate with the guy??? I know I said the Rangers needed a top-flight starter, but that's a serious price to pay. By the time the contract gets done, they're looking at $100-120 million committed to Darvish. That makes it a little more understandable as to why the Yankees didn't get heavily involved.

What The 25-Man Roster Would Look Like Today

2011-12-19T09:52:00.001-06:00

(Who would be joining these fine gentlemen on the bench today? Courtesy of The AP)

A fun game to play during slow periods in the offseason is constructing the 25-man roster from what is currently available. Since the entire offseason has basically been a slow period for the Yankees after they signed CC and Freddy, some sites are already turning to this post idea. The problem, though, is that people aren't being real about their selections. They're leaving the open bullpen and bench slots open, as if the Yankees were going to say, "you know what, we haven't signed or traded for the guys we really want in these roles, so we're just going to go with 21 players and some blank spaces if that's alright." Come on, people. That takes all the fun right of it. If the season were starting tomorrow, the Yankees would have to at least have 25 warm bodies on the roster and on the bench to play the game, not "???" as the 4th outfielder or "--" as the long man out of the 'pen. So I'll take it upon myself to play this game the RIGHT way and give you the 25-man roster as it would stand today.

Lineup

C- Russell Martin
1B- Mark Teixeira
2B- Robinson Cano
SS- Derek Jeter
3B- Alex Rodriguez
LF- Brett Gardner
CF- Curtis Granderson
RF- Nick Swisher
DH- Jesus Montero

Rotation

SP- CC Sabathia
SP- Ivan Nova
SP- A.J. Burnett
SP- Freddy Garcia
SP- Phil Hughes

Bullpen

RP- Mariano Rivera
RP- Dave Robertson
RP- Rafael Soriano
RP- Boone Logan
RP- Cory Wade
RP- George Kontos
RP- Brad Meyers**

Bench

C- Francisco Cervelli
IF- Eduardo Nunez
OF- Chris Dickerson
IF- Brandon Laird

The lineup and the rotation are obviously set (for now), so no big discussion points there. But shit starts getting a little iffy as we move to the back of the bullpen and the bench area. With Joba still on the shelf recovering from TJS until the summer, I looked at the rest of the guys on the 40-man and determined that George Kontos was the most likely to get a spot based on his 2011 body of work. And with Hector Noesi already being penciled into the Triple-A rotation to keep him stretched out as a starter, Brad Meyers was the best option as long man out of the 'pen.** With a core group of Mo-D-Rob, Sour Puss, Boone Logan, and Wade, that's still a damn good bullpen.

The bench, on the other hand, is a desolate wasteland of Quadruple-A talent. Francisco Cervelli will likely be on as a 3rd catcher again since the Yankees don't seem interested in having Jesus carry that load on his own. And for now, it would be Nunez, Dickerson, and Laird filling out the backup spots, although those are the spots most subject to change if the Yankees agree to new deals with guys like Andruw Jones and Nakajima. Hopefully they do make some deals to beef up the bench, because I could probably grab 3 people from around my office to fill those spots and our production would be comparable.

It's not as strong or as deep as it will be once Spring Training rolls around. But you have to work with what you've got, and right now this is the roster the Yankees would have to roll with if Game 1 was tomorrow.

**- If you didn't want a 7-man bullpen, substitute somebody like Ramiro Pena or Justin Maxwell in as a 5th bench body for Meyers.

Yankees Once Again The Most Evil Empire

2011-12-19T07:08:00.001-06:00

With Kim Jong-Il dying today, that has to put the New York Yankees back at #1 on the list of Evil Empires in the world, right? I mean, they haven't exactly been bullying other teams around and flexing their evil muscles this offseason, but they're still pretty evil. And true evil sometimes stays low on the radar, to lure others into a false sense of security. No doubt that's what the Yankees have been doing, just biding their time, letting old KJ mentally and physically over-work himself to death and then swooping in once he croaks to re-assume the evil throne that is rightfully theirs. Jong-il's goofy little son may be running the show in North Korea now, but that goober doesn't hold a candle to Hank and Hal, or Cash for that matter.

It wouldn't shock me at all if it turned out the Yankees had a hit man on that train with Kim, and Cash gave the go word on the hit personally. It'd certainly be the biggest move by the Yankees so far this offseason if he did.

P.S.- If anybody from North Korea is reading this, I'm just playin'.

Yoenis Cespedes: The Sequel

2011-12-18T11:15:00.000-06:00

You knew he wasn't just going to leave us hanging out there without hitting us with a sequel. A new Yoenis Cespedes video has hit the internet, and it's a collection of highlights from his pro day workout. No weirdass ab exercises in this one; definitely more geared towards actual baseball skills, even if most of the video showed him getting ready to do those baseball skills rather than actually doing them.

If you were paying attention, you probably noticed Tony Pena and Billy Eppler around the 4:15-4:16 mark, confirming that the Yankees have been among the teams who have scouted Cespedes the most. I'm still not sold on him being a game-changing prospect based off of this video, but I will say that Cespedes has some skills and the dude is definitely a monster athlete. Jay Bilas would be creaming his jeans if Cespedes was a basketball prospect and not a baseball one.

Yanks Win More Awards

2011-12-17T08:44:00.000-06:00

Last night, Major League Baseball had its own awards, the Greatness in Baseball Yearly Awards or GIBBYs. Unlike many of the other major awards given out each year in baseball, the Yankees weren't shafted in the voting for the GIBBYs. In fact, they cleaned up last night, taking home 3 awards.

- Dave Robertson: Setup Man of the Year. Well earned when you check his stat line at FanGraphs.

- Robinson Cano: Wow Factor. Don't really know what that award means, but I know I say "wow" a lot when I'm watching Cano hit and field. So this makes sense.

- Moment of the Year: Derek Jeter. When you're one of the game's most popular players and have been for over 10 years now, and you go 5-5 on the day that you get your 3,000th hit including a home run for that 3,000th and the game-winning RBI on your fifth hit, you're probably going to win Moment of the Year. That's some hardcore Disney shit and I still can't believe it happened.

So there you go. The sting of the ridiculous voting in the MVP and Cy Young awards earlier has been eased a little. And the Yankees can carry the pride that comes with winning 3 prestigious GIBBY Awards in one season into Spring Training.

Would Not Getting Yu Darvish Be The Final Sign That The Yankees Are Serious About Cutting Costs?

2011-12-16T12:19:00.000-06:00

(Better to save for 2014 than to spend in 2011?)

I ask because it's looking that was already a strong possibility with the way Cash has gone about his business this offseason, and the word around the MLB water cooler since Wednesday night has been that the Yanks' bid was relatively low and the Blue Jays' bid was a monster one. 3 years ago, the last time the Yankees made a declaration that they were going to improve the rotation, the roles would have been reversed. But in 2011 the Yankees have been the model of fiscal responsibility while those around them spend gobs of money to lock up the top FA targets available.

And it's more than just not spending the money on guys. The Yankees haven't even really been as deeply involved with the big names as they typically are. They declined a second meeting with C.J. Wilson and his agent, only had "preliminary" talks with Mark Buehrle, didn't even try to get their name connected to Albert Pujols, and now reportedly came in with a small posting bid for Yu Darvish, a guy they've spent 3+ years scouting. And with what's left out there (Oswalt, Kuroda, Edwin Jackson), there are hardly any substantial rumors connecting any of those 3 to the Yankees. Right now, they seem very content with what they've done in bringing back CC and Freddy and content to keep their payroll at or only slightly above what it currently is.

We always have to keep our minds open to the possibility of Cash and Co. pulling one over on everybody, and maybe next Tuesday it will be the Yankees who win the Darvish posting with a large bid. But it doesn't look that way right now, and if they don't win the posting I think that signals them taking a serious approach to shrinking payroll and wouldn't expect to see any more major pitching acquisitions this offseason and possibly next. The efforts on getting the payroll down, an effort that would reap some rewards in future years, rather than the usual "World Series or bust" offseason approach is a smart one, and I can get on board with it. It will just take some getting used to.

Talking About The New Labor Deal Details

2011-12-15T10:00:00.002-06:00

A bunch of details of the new labor detail were released earlier this week. And as someone who's on the record as a hater of all things CBA-related, I have to say that I'm liking a lot of the stuff I read about these new changes. It's nothing earth-shattering, but many of the changes are very simple, very reasonable, and stand to make the game better. If simple, basic logic was used like this all the time when making decisions about the game, I could probably get into the business side of baseball. For example:

- Instant Replay: Expansion to cover fair/foul calls, trapped catches, and fan interference (still needs to be approved by the umpires).

It's about damn time. Baseball has been and is the furthest behind the times of the 4 major sports when it comes to replay, and it seems like the more replay has been talked about over the past couple seasons the more we've seen plays happen where the right call could have been made if umpires could check the replay. Adding these situations as reviewable plays by replay is a big step forward in closing the gap and should help to ensure that it's the play on the field that determines the winner and not the umps.

- All-Star Break: Changed from 3 days to 4, with the option of moving the HR Derby back from Monday to Tuesday and the ASG from Tuesday to Wednesday.

Makes perfect sense to me. I mean, 3 days is hardly a break. That's just a long weekend in my book. Now everybody gets a little more time to rest, a little more time to see their families, and a little extra time to travel to wherever the ASG is being held. If this doesn't help bring a little more star power and relevancy back to the ASG, nothing will. Now if only they could agree to shrink the rosters back down so we aren't stuck watching the Watered Down Pool of Very Good Players Game every year, that would be something.

- Game Schedules: Re-alignment to six 5-team divisions, with each team playing 17 or 18 games against each divisional opponent and no more than 20 interleague games per team.

Another very simple, logical decision. Houston moves to the AL, all the divisions are finally balanced, and facing divisional opponents is still the most important part of a team's schedule. I'm a firm believer that the shtick of interleague play has long worn off, so the fewer interleague games the better in my book. Just keep it to the geographic and historical rivalries and let that be that.

- Scoring Decisions: A ban on players a/o coaches asking official scorers to change decisions. Instead, a formal appeal must be sent to MLB with video evidence.

No more home cooking from the stadium scorers. If you think you deserve a hit or an RBI, prove it and let the governing body make a decision. Nothing wrong with that. The less I have to see clips of David Ortiz barging into postgame press conferences to whine to his manager about a scoring play, the happier I'll be.

- Uniform Number Changes: Players must inform MLB 8 months in advance if they want to switch their uniform number while still on the same team, or be willing to buy up all the merchandise that has the current number.

This is the Chad Ochocinco Rule, right? I have to admit that I haven't heard of any situation where a baseball player has caused a merchandise-related issue by switching numbers mid-season, but in case anybody was thinking about it, now there's a rule for it. This should come in handy for the guys who get stuck with crummy numbers in the 60s and 70s when they first come up and want to switch to "real" number.

- Playoff Matchups: Teams from the same division can now face each other in the Wild Card round.

Duh. This is one that never made any sense to me. Record should determine playoff seeding, simple as that. But that goes out the window in baseball if the two teams that would match up based on record are from the same division? Why? What does it matter if they play in the Wild Card Round or League Championship? Truth be told, I'd rather see the Yankees playing the Rays in the first round as opposed to the ALCS. Get it out of the way early. Now that can happen.

- Tattoos: No tats allowed showing corporate logos.

Again, I didn't realize that this was such a potential epidemic amongst the players. But if Robbie Cano was thinking of treating himself to a big old CM Punk-style Pepsi tattoo on his forearm some time in 2014, he's going to have to think again. And really, MLB and the teams already do enough to pimp themselves out to corporate sponsors. The players were really the only thing left that wasn't being used to sell ad space.

- 40-Man Roster Perks: Everybody on the 40-man during Spring Training gets his own room.

Can you just see the Triple-A guys on the 40-man who are only there as emergency injury backups high fiving each other when they get to sunny Tampa? My own room?!?! NICE!! It's a little thing, but as somebody who despised having roommates I can see why this would be important to a player. You're a grown man working at your profession. You don't need to feel like you're at freshman orientation weekend in college.

It's not quite enough to make up for shafting the Yankees out of their monetary advantages, but if these changes help improve the product on the field as I expect them to, then I'm happy with them. Of course, this is just one man's opinion. What say you, Yankee faithful?

Bidding Closed On Darvish

2011-12-15T07:55:00.000-06:00

And all indications point to him wearing a uniform other than the Yankees pinstripes in 2012. David Waldstein reported last night that the deal was "not huge" and was only submitted in the final few hours before the 5PM deadline, and Jon Heyman called the Yankees' bid "modest" while saying the winning bid was "sky-high."

My guess? With the latest contract rumors for Darvish starting at 5 years/$75 million and the Yankees likely wanting to keep their total spent on Darvish below $100 mil, I think they probably bid somewhere between $20-25 million to keep themselves at the 100 mil ceiling. With some estimates on the winning bid being in the $40-50 mil range, there isn't much chance the Yankee bid will be the winner. Smart money would be on the Rangers. After losing Wilson they have the biggest need for a high-end starter.

To scout a guy who fits your rotational needs for 3 years and then submit a low bid in the final hours of his posting period is not the typical Yankee way of going after a target. This fiscally responsible, cost cutting initiative is starting to look more and more real each day.

No Rush To Re-Sign Russell Martin

2011-12-14T16:03:00.000-06:00

(Courtesy of Getty Images)

Russell Martin is all but guaranteed to be a Yankee in 2012 after he was among the group of players to whom the Yankees tendered contracts on Monday. He was almost a steal for $4 mil this past season, rebounding from his injury problems to put up a .237/.324/.408 tripleslash, .325 wOBA, and 3.1 WAR in 125 games and finally putting an end to the Jorge Posada Catching Era. And while his contract this year will be for more money, Martin is still going to be a bargain for the Yankees in 2012. Already, though, there is chatter starting to leak out about extending Martin beyond this upcoming season, to which I must say "shhh."

There is no reason to even entertain any thought of signing Martin to a multi-year deal right now. Yes, he's a solid all-around catcher still on the good side of age 30, but let's not forget that he's also just one year removed from being non-tendered by his former team thanks to his constant injuries and nosediving production. 2011 was a step in the right direction for him, but was still just one step. Before we start talking about guaranteeing more years and more money to Martin, shouldn't we wait to see how he does in 2012? Make sure that 2011 was not just a blip on the downtrend radar? This is where his one-year status works to the Yankees' advantage. It gives them another chance to assess his performance and health over a whole season and make an informed decision on where they'd like to go with him in the future.

The other benefit that Martin's one-year situation gives the Yankees is an in-house backup plan to any plans they might have to break in Jesus Montero and Austin Romine behind the plate. There are questions about whether either of those 2 can be full-time catchers at the Major League level, and 2012 should be the time for them to show what they can or can't do. If the Yankees decide Jesus or Romine can handle the job full time in 2013, then they aren't tied to Martin for more years and more money as a backup. They can let him go and move on smoothly. If the young'ns can't hack it, the Yankees have Martin right there available to re-sign, and after another year of seeing how he holds up. He might cost a bit more at that point, but it's money that the team can be more confident in spending.

The situation with Russell Martin is a win-win for the Yankees any way you look at right now. He provides stability and flexibility at the same time, and to extend his contract now would take that away. Cash has been big on preaching patience the last few years and that's exactly what the Yankees need to be in handling Martin. Patient. Let him go out in 2012 and earn that new contract.

Get Me Lou Piniella On Color Commentary, STAT!!

2011-12-14T12:35:00.000-06:00

I missed it yesterday, but this story from The Daily News about Lou returning to the Yankees in 2012 as a ST instructor and YES commentator might very well be the best acquisition the Yanks have made this offseason. It also is the latest reason for me to curse myself for ever moving out to Wisconsin and missing out on the convenience of having the YES Network any time I wanted it.

The stable of YES guys is already pretty strong. I like O'Neill, I like Flaherty, I like Leiter, and I LOVE me some David Cone. Adding Sweet Lou to that mix is like including that one last ingredient on Chopped that brings all the flavor profiles together. He'll be the managerial yin to the other guys' yangs (gross) in terms of breaking down a game, he might be able to provide a little insight into what Joe is thinking when he makes some of his bizarre bullpen decisions, and he's still Lou Piniella. He's a crazy old guy who's likely to still have some of that old fire in his belly. I can't wait to hear him the first time he gets fired up about a bad play or bad call. It'd be like watching a game with your crazy uncle.

I also wouldn't mind seeing him pull one of these on Michael Kay in the booth the first time they disagree on something:

Derek Jeter Is A Pimp In Every Sense Of The Word

2011-12-13T13:47:00.000-06:00

"Yankee star Derek Jeter, one of New York’s most eligible hunks since his split with longtime gal pal Minka Kelly, is bedding a bevy of beauties in his Trump World Tower bachelor pad — and then coldly sending them home alone with gift baskets of autographed memorabilia....

'Derek has girls stay with him at his apartment in New York, and then he gets them a car to take them home the next day. Waiting in his car is a gift basket containing signed Jeter memorabilia, usually a signed baseball,' the friend dished." (courtesy of The Post)

This story is going around all over the sports blogosphere today, mainly with a negative spin to it, and I just don't get it. How is this supposed to be a bad thing? To me this is just Jeter playing chess in the booty-getting game once again while the rest of us regular guys are playing checkers.

Consider. Derek Jeter has established the all-time greatest list of celebrity conquests in the history of human existence. No everyday chick can bring to the table what some of his previous ladies can, and they know it. More importantly, he knows it. But he knows it's a big deal for them to get to meet, hang out with, and bang him. I mean, he is the guy who did this:

And he's a 5-time world champion, and he's a member of the 3,000 Hit Club, and he's still pretty damn hot. So what does he do? He treats them to a wonderful evening out on the town, takes 'em back to his place (discreetly, of course), shows 'em The Captain, takes care of business, and then sends them home with a little memento. It makes them feel more special and not just like another notch on Jeter's belt and also serves as proof for them when they tell their friends that they hooked up with Derek Jeter. It's genius.

This is the smoothest move I've seen since I decided to skip the tie at senior prom and rocked a badass button stud instead. It's just Jeter being Jeter and if you expected anything different you're either a moron or you're jealous. Now hit the fucking music.

Maximizing A-Rod In 2012 And Beyond

2011-12-13T10:00:00.001-06:00

(The A-Horse swingeth)

After his fourth straight season of injury problems and declining production, this year's batch of injuries preventing him from even playing in 100 games, it appears that Alex Rodriguez is now moving towards the twilight of his career. Unfortunately for the Yankees, that transition is going to be a long one as he still has 6 years and $143 million left on the contract he signed after the 2007 season. Looking at the downward trend in his production and the upward trend in DL time over the past four seasons, we could be in for some ugliness before the sun finally sets on The Horse's baseball career. Knowing that, it makes sense to re-evaluate expectations for A-Rod moving forward and consider a more conservative approach to managing him as he declines in the interest of keeping him healthy. EJ started to touch on this point yesterday with his idea that A-Rod's health is what drives his production, and I want to take it a step further. Starting this year and moving forward, the Yankees need to focus on keeping Alex healthy and need to manage him in a way that allows him to stay healthy.

Since his 2007 MVP season, A-Rod has averaged just 124.5 Games Played and 538 PA per season over the past four thanks to his various injuries, and has seen his elite-level production fall as well. When he's healthy and on the field there's no doubt that The Horse can still produce at a high level, as evidenced by his April and June months in 2011 when he put up OPS values in the high .900s-low 1.000s and wOBA values in the low .420s. But once he starts getting banged up, that production suffers, both as a result of him modifying his approach and swing to compensate for his injuries and then due to the large chunks of time spent on the DL when the injuries become too much. The projections for 2012 all create a similar expectation for him to miss significant time next season and for his production to continue to suffer as a result:

2012 ZiPS: .264/.350/.474, 115 OPS+, 108 G, 456 PA
2012 CAIRO: .273/.363/.474, .351 wOBA, 106 G, 459 PA
2012 Bill James: .277/.373/.497, .376 wOBA, 134 G, 579 PA

The Bill James projection is the most favorable, both in terms of performance and playing time. The other 2 projections, drawing heavily from the last couple years, expect A-Rod to only slightly improve on his playing time totals from 2011 (99 G, 428 PA) while continuing the downward trend in production that he's had over the last two seasons. But if we can agree and accept that A-Rod's production should be declining some at his age and agree that the injury problems seem to be accelerating that decline, then we can agree that the first thing the Yankees need to address in 2012 is how to keep him healthy and in the lineup as much as possible.

Once again this year we are being treated to reports on A-Rod's new offseason workout program that will keep him healthy and productive. But at age 36 it would be unreasonable for us or the Yankees to expect a healthy full season from A-Rod in 2012 regardless of what that workout plan is, especially if he continues to be used the way he has over the past four seasons. Joe has finally started to make a conscious effort to give A-Rod more time at DH in order to keep him healthy, but that approach has usually come after A-Rod has already been hurt. This upcoming season should be the first where regular DH time and scheduled off days becomes a staple of his playing schedule. Implementing a strict plan that guarantees Rodriguez regular DH time and regular rest from Day 1 should help lessen the wear and tear his body accumulates through the 162-game season and keep him producing at a high level.
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You Know You're A Diehard Yankee Fan When...

2011-12-13T07:40:00.001-06:00

(My new night light)

A guy you work with out in Milwaukee, who doesn't even read the blog, steals a neon Yankee light from his buddy's bar to give to you because he remembers that you like the Yankees. It's old, it's dusty as hell, and there are probably spider eggs hatching out of it and hundreds of baby spiders crawling all over my apartment right now, but that's still fucking sweet.

I guess blowing off all my friends and social life during the playoffs to scream at the TV and jot down game notes is finally starting to pay off. And I thought there were no perks to being a blogger.

Yankees Try A Little Tenderness

2011-12-12T19:31:00.000-06:00

The Yankees announced today that they plan to tender contracts to all 6 of their arbitration-eligible players: Brett Gardner, Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Boone Logan, Russell Martin, and Dave Robertson.

Wait, so the Yankees actually wanted to bring back their starting catcher, starting leftfielder, setup man, LOOGY, late-inning bullpen guy, and 1/5th of their current starting rotation, all guys who are under the age of 29, come at team-friendly prices, and produce at above-average, sometimes All Star-caliber levels? NO FUCKING WAY!! That's madness.

Do You Want Yu?

2011-12-12T07:36:00.000-06:00

That's probably the question the top Yankee officials have been asking themselves since late last week. The reports of the Yankees' involvement in the Yu Darvish sweepstakes had quieted down some during the Winter Meetings, and since the Meetings ended and the Darvish posting was officially announced late last week the talks have gotten even quieter. So with a little over 2 days until the posting period ends, the biggest question right now is whether or not the Yankees are going to make a serious offer for Darvish.

On the one hand they've got what essentially adds up to a rookie or 2nd-year pitcher age-wise (25) who already has plenty of experience against the top level of competition available to him and plenty of innings built up on his young arm. He's got an array of above-average pitches that he commands very well, a mastery of his delivery and mechanics well beyond what many current Major Leaguers possess, and is currently the top free agent option available to help the Yankees accomplish Cash's stated offseason goal of improving the starting rotation. On the other they've got the big commitment in terms of money (likely somewhere at or over $100 million between the posting fee and contract) and years that it will take to get this pitcher, the uncertainty of how the transition will go to the Majors, and a seemingly serious goal of the team to cut payroll to get under $189 million by 2014.

So what's more important? Curtailing the spending to start getting the payroll closer to that $189 million line and go with the current rotation (CC, Nova, A.J., Phil, Freddy, Noesi) or be aggressive on a pitcher with the potential to be a #1-#2-type? Right now the Yankees seem to be leaning towards passing on Darvish, and they've been very guarded in their comments on him over the last 4-5 days. We'll have to pay close attention to what's said over the next 2 to see if they tip their hand at all.

Winter Meetings Recap

2011-12-10T14:12:00.000-06:00

The 2011 Winter Meetings have come and gone this week, with the Yankees taking an actively inactive approach. They were tied to almost every big name free agent available, especially the starting pitchers, were connected in some form to almost every stater reportedly to be on the trading block, and even added some potential depth in small deals . The Yankees had goals and areas for improvement, but they had already done the majority of their important work prior to these meetings. CC Sabathia and Freddy Garcia agreed to new deals weeks ago and so adding to the starting rotation was going to be a much more careful process where the Yanks were only going to make a deal if it felt right. In the end, no major moves were made by Cash, but that doesn't mean the Winter Meetings were a loss for the Yankees.

For starters, they put the finishing touches on the current rotation by making the Freddy Garcia signing official. He gets a boost in pay as a result of 2011's success but not enough that it's still not a good, safe deal for the Yanks. They also won the posting for a Japanese player, but not the one we expected. Hiroyuki Nakajima, a star infielder from the Japanese League, could be a replacement for Eduardo Nunez as the backup IF next year and could also fill the Eric Chavez role of caddy to A-Rod. He isn't a sure thing to sign, but this has to signal an attempt by the Yanks to make Nunez more of a trade chip.

The Yanks were active below the Major League radar as well. They added a pair of pitchers through the Rule 5 draft, righty Brad Meyers and lefty Cesar Cabral. Neither should be expected to be major contributors in 2012 if they even make the team, but maybe one becomes a useful bullpen piece. They did have to release Greg Golson to make roster room before the draft, but that's an acceptable loss. There were reports that the Yankees signed former White Sox OF Dewayne Wise, so a replacement for Golson's role shouldn't be an issue. And both Manny Corpas and Adam Miller, 2 other interesting bullpen possibilities, have also been linked to the Yankees.

Perhaps the biggest news to come out of the meetings was the report that the Yankees had been contacting other clubs and offering A.J. Burnett plus some salary relief. Many passed this off as a small story and say A.J. will be back in the rotation while I argued that the report alone meant A.J. had to go and I still stand by that argument. A.J.'s value could be easily approximated by a combination Hector Noesi and the other guys in Triple-A next year and a better season from Phil Hughes. And freeing up some more money by eating any portion of his salary, even significantly more than the $8 million the story mentioned, allows them to be more active in their pursuits for an upgrade through a trade. You can't tell me that getting rid of A.J., paying him less than you would have had to to stay in the rotation, and adding John Danks is not a winning scenario.

The meetings are over but that doesn't mean the Yankees are done. The posting period for Yu Darvish will end this Wednesday and New York is expected to a major player. The trade talks with the White Sox and Athletics should continue and eventually they will come to their senses and drop their incredibly high demands. And the potential still exists for the Yankees to fill out the bench through a small deal and maybe rid themselves of A.J. through another small one. What happened at the meetings this week probably helped finalize Cash's plan to attack these paths. Now we get to sit back and watch him really go to work.

Freddy Officially Back

2011-12-09T14:55:00.000-06:00

The Yankees made it official today with a press release. The Garbage Man will be back in 2012, most likely as the de facto #5 starter but probably closer to the #3-#4 he was in 2011 if A.J. and Hughes don't rebound.

Freddy's working on a $4 million deal this year, a significant increase from his non-guaranteed deal last last season, with another $1.575 million available in incentives. To make room for Garcia on the 40-man, the Yanks DFA'd Colin Curtis.

As of right now, the 2012 rotation is set. We'll see if that changes over the next month or so.

Cash Weighs In On Albert

2011-12-09T08:11:00.000-06:00

"He's a special player. I don't know him personally, but I see what he does with that bat. It's Montero-like."

It was a quiet week for the Bombers at the Winter Meetings, but that doesn't mean Cash is going out lying down. No sir. He's always playing the game, 25 hours a day, 8 days a week, and I love it. Somebody get a slow clap going.

(Quote via Bryan Hoch)

Rule 5 Wrap-Up

2011-12-08T15:07:00.000-06:00

Flying well under the "Albert Pujols/C.J. Wilson Free Agent Mega Orgy" radar today was the Rule 5 draft. The Yankees had a few guys out there who could have been taken, but ended up not losing anybody through the draft while adding 2 pitchers. Here's the quick recap.

- To clear space before the draft, the Yanks released Greg Golson. He wasn't much with the stick despite being a tremendous athlete (copyright: Jay Bilas) and solid defensive player. Just lessens the back end depth of the "4th OFer" pool.

- Yankees selected RHP Brad Meyers from the Nationals. Dude throws 4 pitches and has decent MiL peripherals, but injuries have derailed his progress. He'll be looked at as a candidate to fill the long man role out of the bullpen.

- Yanks also added a LHP through a trade with the Royals, who selected Cesar Cabral from the Fraud Sawx and then shipped him to New York for cash. Cabral's stuff and R/L splits don't make him an ideal 2nd lefty option, but his high K rate could make him a diamond in the rough.

It's likely that neither Meyers nor Cabral will stick with the Yankees, but it's always good to give yourself cheap options. I can't imagine they were expecting much from the Cory Wade trade last year and look how that turned out.

The Stove Is Finally Heating Up

2011-12-08T10:45:00.000-06:00

It isn't Yankee-related, but big news from the Winter Meeting is breaking this morning as both Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson were signed by the Angels.

ESPN is reporting that Pujols' deal is for 10 years/$250-260 million and includes a full no-trade clause, and Wilson's is for 5 years/$75 mil, less than what he was asking for and less than most people thought he'd get. Hometown discount, anybody?

The Yanks didn't seem to be major players in the talks with either of these guys, but it will be interesting to see how, if at all, these 2 coming off the market influences their plans moving forward. With Buehrle coming off the market yesterday and now Wilson today, FA starter options are disappearing fast.

The Nail In A.J.'s Coffin

2011-12-08T10:00:00.007-06:00

(Now that the word is out that the Yanks are trying to shop him, we should expect to see a lot more of Bad A.J. in 2012)

There's no point in trying to sugarcoat it. A.J. Burnett's Yankee career has been an absolute disaster. It's been dismal. A.J. has become the latest in the long line of failed Yankee high-profile free agent pitching signings and made himself the newest poster boy for the "He Can't Hack It in New York" argument that people love to use when guys fail in pinstripes. And with the recent NY Post report that the Yankees are actively shopping A.J. this week at the Winter Meetings and are willing to eat some of his remaining salary to sweeten the deal, the Yankees are now in a position where they basically HAVE to trade A.J.

Let's review his time as a Yankee quickly. In 2009, A.J. was mediocre in his first full season in The Bronx. He was more bad than good, and did not show the consistent results and dominance he had shown the previous year. In the end, though, A.J. was a part of a World Series-winning staff and even contributed to that title with a solid Game 2 outing in the World Series. In 2010, A.J. nose dived off the productivity ladder, putting up one of the all-time worst individual pitching seasons in Yankee history and almost being left off the postseason roster . And this past season, the downward spiral continued as A.J. put up comparably bad numbers to 2010, lost his spot in the rotation, and once again found himself the centerpiece of the Yankee playoff rotation as they tried to figure out a way where they did not have to use him.

More maddening than the poor performance, at least for me, has been all the baggage and BS that's come with the last three years of A.J. The bouts of inexplicable inconsistency, the failure against the Fraud Sawx, the constantly-changing mechanics, the personal catchers, the inability to be objective about his own performance, the different haircuts, the black eye, the arguing with his manager on the mound and cursing him out after being taken out a game in which he was pitching poorly, the 6-man rotation, and the constant efforts by everybody in the organization (teammates, Joe, Cash, Levine) to take turns playing CYA for him along the way.

And now after all of this, the Yankees are out at the Winter Meetings trying to do the baseball equivalent of giving A.J. away, and that's supposed to help him pitch better in 2012? Not on your life. This story, which appears to be true, represents the Yankees finally admitting that they don't have confidence in A.J. and don't want him anymore. And when they've spent the past 3 seasons trying to convince the media, the fans, A.J., and probably even themselves that they did and it hasn't gotten them anything from A.J., why would throwing up their hands and saying, "We've had enough of this clown. Somebody PLEASE take him!" work any better? The guy couldn't pitch worth a damn when he had support from the team. He'll barely be able to function on the mound now knowing that he doesn't, and the team can no longer step up and try to cover for him after this move. This has to be the end of A.J.'s Yankee career.

By outing themselves for their lack of support, the Yankees have effectively killed any chances they had of getting something positive from A.J. over the next 2 years. After making these offers, there's no way the Yankees can bring him back and expect anything from him. He's a wasted roster spot. And the $33 million they still owe him has now gone from being an opportunity cost to essentially a sunk cost for the Yankees. The majority of the contract is a sunk cost already, so if it's about money you're really just putting a lipstick on a pig at this point. This isn't the NFL where they can cut him and not have to pay him. One way or another, A.J. is getting his $33 million that's still owed to him and the Yankees are going to at least pay some of it. With the contract that Mark Buehrle signed today with Miami, all of the guys the Yankees could target are going to want more than the Yankees are going to be willing to offer. By admitting A.J. was a mistake and moving him, for anything, the Yankees will pass some of the cost off to somebody else, and give themselves a bit more payroll flexibility to use in the trade market that they seem more involved in anyway.

They'd still be left with CC, Nova, Freddy, a Phil Hughes that they're expecting a big rebound from, and a Hector Noesi that's been turning heads in the DR. Put that together with the bodies in Triple-A and some potential top-of-the-rotation trade targets, and it's not like the Yankees would be up the creek without A.J. Sure they're going to end up losers in whatever trade they make for him, assuming any trade gets made. But when the message the Yankees are sending as an organization right now are that they've given up on A.J., then they've already lost. And in this case, it'd be better for both sides to just cut the losses and move on.

Yanks Win Posting For Japanese SS

2011-12-08T08:09:00.000-06:00

He isn't Yu Darvish, who could be posted today, but the Yankees did win the posting for Japanese shortstop Hiroyuki Nakajima yesterday for $2 million. Not a major move by the Bombers, but one that should help bolster the Yankees IF depth if they can negotiate a deal with Nakajima by January 6.

The most important thing about this move may be what other moves it signals the Yankees are interested in making. Allow me a minute to play hypothetical trade carousel. If they sign Nakajima, the Yankees essentially cover second base, third base, and short, filling both the Eduardo Nunez and Eric Chavez roles from last season. This frees them up to use Nunez as a trade chip and they include him in offers to bring in a John Danks or Gio Gonzalez while at the same time coming to an agreement with another team for how much of A.J.'s contract they will eat and moving A.J. for a bag of balls. That would leave the Yankees with their backup infield covered, some more flexibility to fill the other bench spots, and the upgrade for the rotation that they were looking for through both the addition of solid #2 pitcher and the subtraction of their worst pitcher.

I don't see any way any Yankee fan couldn't be happy with that playing out, but first things first, the Yanks have to sign Nakajima. If they don't, they just don't pay the posting fee and they're right back where they were. But if they do, I expect things to start happening and players to start moving quickly afterwards. Even if they don't make any moves after, adding Nakajima is still a smart, cost-effective move to help fill the bench for 2012. There's no really downside to this move by the Yankees.

Ken Williams Smokes Two Joints In The Morning...

2011-12-07T19:53:00.001-06:00

... And Billy Beane smokes two joints at night. That's really the only logical explanation I can come up with to explain the completely batshit insane trade requests these guys are making. I'll be honest, I thought Williams' "Jesus and ManBan for John Danks" idea was cute. I really did. I mean, I'm sure Williams is still salty over Cash giving him the business on the Swisher trade. It's understandable. But this batch of nonsense from Billy is just awe-inspiringly stupid. Jesus, ManBan or Betances, and Mason Williams. I understand wanting to take a big reach on your first go round to see if the Yankees are serious, but THAT big a reach?

Come on now, guys. Cut the malarkey. And fire another one up. My guess is, once you start feeling it and Cash calls back talking about throwing in some Beef Baja Chalupas and Jr. Bacon Cheeseburgers with D.J. Mitchell, you'll be singing a different tune.

P.S.- 4 years/$58 mil for Mark Buehrle? Really? Really???

A.J. Being Dangled? Will Anybody Bite? What Does It Mean?

2011-12-07T11:45:00.000-06:00

(Could we be saying goodbye to A.J. Two Face?)

A story in The Post this morning discussed the Yankees' reportedly offering up A.J. Burnett to other teams and being willing to eat some of the money remaining on his contract. There's no mention of any specific teams or trade proposals that were discussed, and no real indication that there is a market out there for A.J., so before you jump for joy realize that the odds of A.J. actually being dealt are slim to none. But this does shed some more light on what the Yankees' plans could be to address the rotation this year.

First and foremost, I think this is a clear indication that the Yankees have given up on A.J. The Yankees, with their constant "win now" mentality, are the type of team to take on contracts through trades if they feel it can help the team, not eat their own contracts and pay players to NOT play for them. If the Yankees are openly stating that they are willing to pay money for A.J. to not be on their team next year, then it's a clear sign that they think they are better off without him than with him in the rotation. That $8 million number they threw out almost certainly wouldn't be enough for other teams to take them up on the offer, but coming out and giving a number establishes a willingness on their part to talk, and that's a bad sign for A.J.

Secondly, I think this play by the Yankees shows that they are more serious about adding a pitcher through a trade this offseason than through free agency. There is almost 0 talk right now relating to the C.J. Wilsons, Mark Buehrles, and Roy Oswalts of the world and any connection to the Yankees. There is plenty of talk, however, regarding John Danks and Gio Gonzalez, and Cash listening to trade proposals in general. And while the asking prices for both are incredibly steep right now, the Yankees must feel like they can negotiate a trade that is better for them and pursue that route to improve their rotation. If they didn't, they wouldn't be looking to remove a piece from their current rotation, and eat money for that piece, to open up a spot..

Again, this will likely result in a lot of nothing. But even from nothing can something be extracted, in this case some more clues as to what the Yanks might be looking to do to follow through on their efforts to bolster next year's rotation.

The Worst Part Of Hot Stove Season So Far

2011-12-07T08:24:00.000-06:00

(Screen cap courtesy of ESPN.com)

I don't know why I was surprised to see this on my TV last night, but I damn near coughed water all over my screen when I picked my head up and saw Bobby V, unbuttoned tie-less white guy gangsta swag and all, chumming it up with Terry Francona as they talked about the stuff that comes with managing the Fraud Sawx.

Are they any lows that ESPN won't stoop to in order to keep their beloved Fraud Sawx at the forefront of their baseball coverage? I mean, we haven't heard a peep about what the team's offseason plans are other than offering arbitration to Big Sloppi and then BOOM! Fraud Sawx managerial ho-down right in your fucking grill. It's pathetic. The Marlins are trying to scoop up every big name player out there, Albert Pujols is weighing offers from them and the Cardinals, there's rumors surrounding the FA pitching group, Hanley Ramirez is pissed, the Yankees are laying in the weeds watching everything unfold, and yet ESPN decides the best thing to do is stick the current and most recent Fraud Sawx managers together to suck each other's dicks for five minutes. Hot Stove coverage at its finest, folks!

I'll make it real simple. Managing the Fraud Sawx is a shitty job because of all the prima donnas in the clubhouse, the upper management and ownership just waiting to cut your throat and smear you in the media, and the equally idiotic local media and fanbase. Working for ESPN is a tits job because you can come on the air, say whatever you want without any knowledge base or support to back up your theories, be completely subjective when talking about any team, ignore statistics that tell the true story, and not be held accountable for anything.

P.S.- I was shocked they didn't have Buster Olney standing by to give updates on the discussion between Francona and Valentine and what it meant for the Fraud Sawx moving forward.

Say It Ain't So, Jerry

2011-12-06T16:58:00.000-06:00

(Best Jerry Hairston moment ever. Courtesy of Getty Images)

Say it ain't so!

I don't know why, but I always had this idea that Jerry Hairston would end up back with the Yankees at some point. Dude was here in '09, won a ring, played well, and would be a one-man bench to fill all the key spots the Yanks have. Play a little backup third base to A-Rod, little backup first for Teix. Play some left field or right field on days when Swish and Gardner need off. Shit, could probably cover Jeter at short in a pinch. And now that's all gone because the fucking Dodgers, who I thought didn't have an owner, a GM, people that cared, or even any money to spend this offseason, locked Hairston up to a 2-year deal. I thought it was a sign when the Brewers brought him in this year. A sign that I was meant to watch Jerry and Jerry was meant to be where I wanted to watch him. But I guess I was wrong. Damn.

P.S.- Ken Rosenthal breaking this story makes me hate Ken Rosenthal more than I already do.