tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5458013228717314951.post4795848120252034560..comments2024-01-03T06:08:24.783-06:00Comments on An A-Blog for A-Rod: Is There Hope For A.J. In 2012?Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03481118946284243411noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5458013228717314951.post-84898685696774802412012-01-31T21:35:49.952-06:002012-01-31T21:35:49.952-06:00I'm actually doing a follow-up on this for my ...I'm actually doing a follow-up on this for my Friday post at RAB; thanks for the inspiration!Larry Koestlerhttp://www.riveraveblues.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5458013228717314951.post-20261811140457633252012-01-31T16:38:21.577-06:002012-01-31T16:38:21.577-06:00Great find, Larry.
Truth be told, I never even th...Great find, Larry.<br /><br />Truth be told, I never even thought to dig that deep and see if there was a trend to be found in those numbers. I wrote the "with 2 strikes" thing off the top of my head as a random example, but it's good to see that there are some trends to support the idea that hitters are murdering A.J.'s mistakes.<br /><br />Pitchers always make mistakes. But when those mistakes become more common and you stop being able to get away with those mistakes, that's when you get in real trouble as a pitcher and that's what seems to be the case with A.J. now.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03481118946284243411noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5458013228717314951.post-78418656524011024582012-01-31T10:42:28.999-06:002012-01-31T10:42:28.999-06:00"It's not so much the two nasty curveball...<i>"It's not so much the two nasty curveballs that they swing and miss at in the at-bat that matter any more; it's the fastball A.J. grooves with 2 strikes that they're squaring up on and driving for power."</i><br /><br />Having done a fair amount of research on Burnett myself -- not to mention a post dedicated to his splits -- I was curious to see whether this statement was actually true. It turns out that A.J.'s problem isn't necessarily a two-strike issue -- his tOPS+ with two strikes last year was 36, while his tOPS+ while ahead in the count was 16 -- but, as you noted, it <i>does</i> appear to be some sort of sequencing issue, as his tOPS+ in counts favorable to the hitter was a ridiculous 208. So it seems like his problem isn't so much screwing up when ahead, but digging himself an even deeper hole when falling behind.Larry Koestlerhttp://www.riveraveblues.comnoreply@blogger.com